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The Shrinking Trillion Dollar Market Cap Club

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Infographic showing the shrinking trillion dollar market cap club

The Shrinking Trillion Dollar Club

Aggressive tightening from the Federal Reserve has caused tech stocks to plummet back to Earth in 2022, and this has shaken up the membership of the trillion dollar market cap club.

Here are the four current members of this exclusive club:

CompanySectorDate Market Cap Hit $1TMarket Cap (Nov 3, 2022)
Apple (AAPL)TechAug 2, 2018$2.21 trillion
Aramco (2222)EnergyDec 11, 2019$2.01 trillion
Microsoft (MSFT)TechApr 25, 2019$1.60 trillion
Alphabet (GOOGL)TechJan 16, 2020$1.08 trillion

Apple, Microsoft, and Aramco are all still well above the $1 trillion mark for now, but Alphabet’s trajectory could take it out of this list if circumstances don’t change soon. Google has indicated that the decrease in crypto advertising has had a big impact on revenue, and ad budgets continue to be slashed as economic uncertainty continues.

Here are the three former members who have seen their market cap dip back below $1 trillion:

CompanySectorDate Market Cap Hit $1TMarket Cap (Nov 3, 2022)
Amazon (AMZN)Tech/RetailSep 4, 2018$911 billion
Tesla (TSLA)AutomotiveOct 25, 2021$675 billion
Meta (META)TechJun 28, 2021$236 billion

Amazon recently became the latest company to fall below the 10-digit threshold. In response to a poorly received earnings report and forecasts for lighter spending this upcoming holiday season, the ecommerce giant has paused corporate hiring for the foreseeable future.

Though Tesla’s valuation has dipped in recent months, Elon Musk remains bullish on Tesla’s prospects, stating the company could eventually be “worth more than Apple and Saudi Aramco combined”. To his credit, Tesla reported record revenues last month.

Diverging Fortunes

Though Apple is down nearly 20% from its peak, the company has faired better than its tech giant peers. In fact, Apple is now worth as much as Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet combined.

Comparing the market caps of apple vs meta apple amazon

Meta, on the other hand, isn’t just going through tough times, it’s the worst performer in the entire S&P 500 this year so far.

Investors are bearish on Mark Zuckerberg’s expensive leap of faith that is the “metaverse” – a virtual reality world that people access via headsets (e.g. Meta Quest). It’s too early to tell whether Meta is on the forefront of the next digital revolution, or embarking on one of the most expensive tech flops in history.

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Timeline: The Shocking Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank

Silicon Valley Bank was shuttered by regulators becoming the largest bank to fail since the height of the Financial Crisis. What happened?

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Timeline: The Shocking Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank

Just days ago, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) was still viewed as a highly-respected player in the tech space, counting thousands of U.S. venture capital-backed startups as its customers.

But fast forward to the end of last week, and SVB was shuttered by regulators after a panic-induced bank run.

So, how exactly did this happen? We dig in below.

Road to a Bank Run

SVB and its customers generally thrived during the low interest rate era, but as rates rose, SVB found itself more exposed to risk than a typical bank. Even so, at the end of 2022, the bank’s balance sheet showed no cause for alarm.

Summary of the SVB balance sheet at the end of 2022

As well, the bank was viewed positively in a number of places. Most Wall Street analyst ratings were overwhelmingly positive on the bank’s stock, and Forbes had just added the bank to its Financial All-Stars list.

Outward signs of trouble emerged on Wednesday, March 8th, when SVB surprised investors with news that the bank needed to raise more than $2 billion to shore up its balance sheet.

The reaction from prominent venture capitalists was not positive, with Coatue Management, Union Square Ventures, and Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund moving to limit exposure to the 40-year-old bank. The influence of these firms is believed to have added fuel to the fire, and a bank run ensued.

Also influencing decision making was the fact that SVB had the highest percentage of uninsured domestic deposits of all big banks. These totaled nearly $152 billion, or about 97% of all deposits.

ℹ️ The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) insures up to $250,000 per account, per bank, for depositors.

By the end of the day, customers had tried to withdraw $42 billion in deposits.

What Triggered the SVB Collapse?

While the collapse of SVB took place over the course of 44 hours, its roots trace back to the early pandemic years.

In 2021, U.S. venture capital-backed companies raised a record $330 billion—double the amount seen in 2020. At the time, interest rates were at rock-bottom levels to help buoy the economy.

Matt Levine sums up the situation well: “When interest rates are low everywhere, a dollar in 20 years is about as good as a dollar today, so a startup whose business model is “we will lose money for a decade building artificial intelligence, and then rake in lots of money in the far future” sounds pretty good. When interest rates are higher, a dollar today is better than a dollar tomorrow, so investors want cash flows. When interest rates were low for a long time, and suddenly become high, all the money that was rushing to your customers is suddenly cut off.”

YearU.S. Venture Capital ActivityAnnual % Change
2021$330B98%
2020$167B15%
2019$145B1%
2018$144B64%
2017$88B6%
2016$83B-3%

Source: Pitchbook

Why is this important? During this time, SVB received billions of dollars from these venture-backed clients. In one year alone, their deposits increased 100%. They took these funds and invested them in longer-term bonds. As a result, this created a dangerous trap as the company expected rates would remain low.

During this time, SVB invested in bonds at the top of the market. As interest rates rose higher and bond prices declined, SVB started taking major losses on their long-term bond holdings.

Losses Fueling a Liquidity Crunch

When SVB reported its fourth quarter results in early 2023, Moody’s Investor Service, a credit rating agency took notice. In early March, it said that SVB was at high risk for a downgrade due to its significant unrealized losses.

In response, SVB looked to sell $2 billion of its investments at a loss to help boost liquidity for its struggling balance sheet. Soon, more hedge funds and venture investors realized SVB could be on thin ice. Depositors withdrew funds in droves, spurring a liquidity squeeze and prompting California regulators and the FDIC to step in and shut down the bank.

What Happens Now?

While much of SVB’s activity was focused on the tech sector, the bank’s shocking collapse has rattled a financial sector that is already on edge.

The four biggest U.S. banks lost a combined $52 billion the day before the SVB collapse. On Friday, other banking stocks saw double-digit drops, including Signature Bank (-23%), First Republic (-15%), and Silvergate Capital (-11%).

NameStock Price Change, March 10 2023Unrealized Losses / Tangible Equity
SVB Financial-60%*-99%
First Republic Bank-15%-29%
Zions Bancorp-2%-47%
Comerica-5%-47%
U.S. Bancorp-4%-55%
Fifth Third Bancorp-4%-38%
Bank of America-1%-54%
Wells Fargo1%-33%
JPMorgan-1%-21%

Source: Morningstar Direct. *Represents March 9 data, trading halted on March 10.

When the dust settles, it’s hard to predict the ripple effects that will emerge from this dramatic event. For investors, the Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen announced confidence in the banking system remaining resilient, noting that regulators have the proper tools in response to the issue.

But others have seen trouble brewing as far back as 2020 (or earlier) when commercial banking assets were skyrocketing and banks were buying bonds when rates were low.

The whole sector is in crisis, and the banks and investors that support these assets are going to have to figure out what to do.-Christopher Whalen, The Institutional Risk Analyst

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