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Mapped: GDP Growth Forecasts by Country, in 2023

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Mapped: GDP Growth Forecasts by Country, in 2023

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Mapped: GDP Growth Forecasts by Country, in 2023

This was originally posted on Advisor Channel. Sign up to the free mailing list to get beautiful visualizations on financial markets that help advisors and their clients.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine early last year, talk of global recession has dominated the outlook for 2023.

High inflation, spurred by rising energy costs, has tested GDP growth. Tightening monetary policy in the U.S., with interest rates jumping from roughly 0% to over 4% in 2022, has historically preceded a downturn about one to two years later.

For European economies, energy prices are critical. The good news is that prices have fallen recently since March highs, but the continent remains on shaky ground.

The above infographic maps GDP growth forecasts by country for the year ahead, based on projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) October 2022 Outlook and January 2023 update.

2023 GDP Growth Outlook

The world economy is projected to see just 2.9% GDP growth in 2023, down from 3.2% projected for 2022.

This is a 0.2% increase since the October 2022 Outlook thanks in part to China’s reopening, higher global demand, and slowing inflation projected across certain countries in the year ahead.

With this in mind, we show GDP growth forecasts for 191 jurisdictions given multiple economic headwinds—and a few emerging bright spots in 2023.

Country / Region2023 Real GDP % Change (Projected)
🇦🇱 Albania2.5%
🇩🇿 Algeria2.6%
🇦🇴 Angola3.4%
🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda5.6%
🇦🇷 Argentina*2.0%
🇦🇲 Armenia3.5%
🇦🇼 Aruba2.0%
🇦🇺 Australia*1.6%
🇦🇹 Austria1.0%
🇦🇿 Azerbaijan2.5%
🇧🇭 Bahrain3.0%
🇧🇩 Bangladesh6.0%
🇧🇧 Barbados5.0%
🇧🇾 Belarus0.2%
🇧🇪 Belgium0.4%
🇧🇿 Belize2.0%
🇧🇯 Benin6.2%
🇧🇹 Bhutan4.3%
🇧🇴 Bolivia3.2%
🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina2.0%
🇧🇼 Botswana4.0%
🇧🇷 Brazil*1.2%
🇧🇳 Brunei Darussalam3.3%
🇧🇬 Bulgaria3.0%
🇧🇫 Burkina Faso4.8%
🇧🇮 Burundi4.1%
🇨🇻 Cabo Verde4.8%
🇨🇲 Cameroon4.6%
🇰🇭 Cambodia6.2%
🇨🇦 Canada*1.5%
🇨🇫 Central African Republic3.0%
🇹🇩 Chad3.4%
🇨🇱 Chile-1.0%
🇨🇳 China*5.3%
🇨🇴 Colombia2.2%
🇰🇲 Comoros3.4%
🇨🇷 Costa Rica2.9%
🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire6.5%
🇭🇷 Croatia3.5%
🇨🇾 Cyprus2.5%
🇨🇿 Czech Republic1.5%
🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of the Congo6.7%
🇩🇰 Denmark0.6%
🇩🇯 Djibouti5.0%
🇩🇲 Dominica4.9%
🇩🇴 Dominican Republic4.5%
🇪🇨 Ecuador2.7%
🇪🇬 Egypt*4.0%
🇸🇻 El Salvador1.7%
🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea-3.1%
🇪🇷 Eritrea2.9%
🇪🇪 Estonia1.8%
🇸🇿 Eswatini1.8%
🇪🇹 Ethiopia5.3%
🇫🇯 Fiji6.9%
🇫🇮 Finland0.5%
🇫🇷 France*0.7%
🇲🇰 North Macedonia3.0%
🇬🇦 Gabon3.7%
Georgia4.0%
Germany*0.1%
Ghana2.8%
Greece1.8%
Grenada3.6%
Guatemala3.2%
Guinea5.1%
Guinea-Bissau4.5%
Guyana25.2%
Haiti0.5%
Honduras3.5%
Hong Kong SAR3.9%
Hungary1.8%
Iceland2.9%
India*6.1%
Indonesia*4.8%
Iraq4.0%
Ireland4.0%
Iran*2.0%
Israel3.0%
Italy*0.6%
Jamaica3.0%
Japan*1.8%
Jordan2.7%
Kazakhstan*4.3%
Kenya5.1%
Kiribati2.4%
South Korea*1.7%
Kosovo3.5%
Kuwait2.6%
Kyrgyz Republic3.2%
Lao P.D.R.3.1%
Latvia1.6%
Lesotho1.6%
Liberia4.2%
Libya17.9%
Lithuania1.1%
Luxembourg1.1%
Macao SAR56.7%
Madagascar5.2%
🇲🇼 Malawi2.5%
🇲🇾 Malaysia*4.4%
🇲🇻 Maldives6.1%
🇲🇱 Mali5.3%
🇲🇹 Malta3.3%
🇲🇭 Marshall Islands3.2%
🇲🇷 Mauritania4.8%
🇲🇺 Mauritius5.4%
🇲🇽 Mexico*1.7%
🇫🇲 Micronesia2.9%
🇲🇩 Moldova2.3%
🇲🇳 Mongolia5.0%
🇲🇪 Montenegro2.5%
🇲🇦 Morocco3.1%
🇲🇿 Mozambique4.9%
🇲🇲 Myanmar3.3%
🇳🇦 Namibia3.2%
🇳🇷 Nauru2.0%
🇳🇵 Nepal5.0%
🇳🇱 Netherlands*0.6%
🇳🇿 New Zealand1.9%
🇳🇮 Nicaragua3.0%
🇳🇪 Niger7.3%
🇳🇬 Nigeria*3.2%
🇳🇴 Norway2.6%
🇴🇲 Oman4.1%
🇵🇰 Pakistan*2.0%
🇵🇼 Palau12.3%
🇵🇦 Panama4.0%
🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea5.1%
🇵🇾 Paraguay4.3%
🇵🇪 Peru2.6%
🇵🇭 Philippines*5.0%
🇵🇱 Poland*0.3%
🇵🇹 Portugal0.7%
🇵🇷 Puerto Rico0.4%
🇶🇦 Qatar2.4%
🇨🇬 Republic of Congo4.6%
🇷🇴 Romania3.1%
🇷🇺 Russia*0.3%
🇷🇼 Rwanda6.7%
🇼🇸 Samoa4.0%
🇸🇲 San Marino0.8%
🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe2.6%
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia*2.6%
🇸🇳 Senegal8.1%
🇷🇸 Serbia2.7%
🇸🇨 Seychelles5.2%
🇸🇱 Sierra Leone3.3%
🇸🇬 Singapore2.3%
🇸🇰 Slovak Republic1.5%
🇸🇮 Slovenia1.7%
🇸🇧 Solomon Islands2.6%
🇸🇴 Somalia3.1%
🇿🇦 South Africa*1.2%
🇸🇸 South Sudan5.6%
🇪🇸 Spain*1.1%
🇱🇰 Sri Lanka-3.0%
🇰🇳 St. Kitts and Nevis4.8%
🇱🇨 St. Lucia5.8%
🇻🇨 St. Vincent and the Grenadines6.0%
🇸🇩 Sudan2.6%
🇸🇷 Suriname2.3%
🇸🇪 Sweden-0.1%
🇨🇭 Switzerland0.8%
🇹🇼 Taiwan2.8%
🇹🇯 Tajikistan4.0%
🇹🇿 Tanzania5.2%
🇹🇭 Thailand*3.7%
🇧🇸 The Bahamas4.1%
🇬🇲 The Gambia6.0%
🇹🇱 Timor-Leste4.2%
🇹🇬 Togo6.2%
🇹🇴 Tonga2.9%
🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago3.5%
🇹🇳 Tunisia1.6%
🇹🇷 Turkey*3.0%
🇹🇲 Turkmenistan2.3%
🇹🇻 Tuvalu3.5%
🇺🇬 Uganda5.9%
🇺🇦 UkraineN/A
🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates4.2%
🇬🇧 United Kingdom*-0.6%
🇺🇲 U.S.*1.4%
🇺🇾 Uruguay3.6%
🇺🇿 Uzbekistan4.7%
🇻🇺 Vanuatu3.1%
🇻🇪 Venezuela6.5%
🇻🇳 Vietnam6.2%
West Bank and Gaza3.5%
🇾🇪 Yemen3.3%
🇿🇲 Zambia4.0%
🇿🇼 Zimbabwe2.8%

*Reflect updated figures from the January 2023 IMF Update.

The U.S. is forecast to see 1.4% GDP growth in 2023, up from 1.0% seen in the last October projection.

Still, signs of economic weakness can be seen in the growing wave of tech layoffs, foreshadowed as a white-collar or ‘Patagonia-vest’ recession. Last year, 88,000 tech jobs were cut and this trend has continued into 2023. Major financial firms have also followed suit. Still, unemployment remains fairly steadfast, at 3.5% as of December 2022. Going forward, concerns remain around inflation and the path of interest rate hikes, though both show signs of slowing.

Across Europe, the average projected GDP growth rate is 0.7% for 2023, a sharp decline from the 2.1% forecast for last year.

Both Germany and Italy are forecast to see slight growth, at 0.1% and 0.6%, respectively. Growth forecasts were revised upwards since the IMF’s October release. However, an ongoing energy crisis exposes the manufacturing sector to vulnerabilities, with potential spillover effects to consumers and businesses, and overall Euro Area growth.

China remains an open question. In 2023, growth is predicted to rise 5.2%, higher than many large economies. While its real estate sector has shown signs of weakness, the recent opening on January 8th, following 1,016 days of zero-Covid policy, could boost demand and economic activity.

A Long Way to Go

The IMF has stated that 2023 will feel like a recession for much of the global economy. But whether it is headed for a recovery or a sharper decline remains unknown.

Today, two factors propping up the global economy are lower-than-expected energy prices and resilient private sector balance sheets. European natural gas prices have sunk to levels seen before the war in Ukraine. During the height of energy shocks, firms showed a notable ability to withstand astronomical energy prices squeezing their finances. They are also sitting on significant cash reserves.

On the other hand, inflation is far from over. To counter this effect, many central banks will have to use measures to rein in prices. This may in turn have a dampening effect on economic growth and financial markets, with unknown consequences.

As economic data continues to be released over the year, there may be a divergence between consumer sentiment and whether things are actually changing in the economy. Where the economy is heading in 2023 will be anyone’s guess.

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Markets

Who Owns the Most Vehicles per Capita, by Country?

Here are the highest vehicles per capita by country as a growing global middle class is fueling car ownership rates around the world.

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This bar graph shows the number of vehicles per 1,000 people around the world.

Who Owns the Most Vehicles per Capita, by Country?

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In 2020, there were 289 million vehicles in use in America, or about 18% of the global total.

With one of the largest car ownership rates worldwide, the number of U.S. cars on the road have more than doubled since the 1960s. But how does ownership compare to other countries, and who is seeing the fastest growth rates amid a rising global middle class?

This graphic shows vehicles per capita by country, based on data from the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (OICA).

Highest Car Ownership Rates Worldwide

Below, we rank countries based on the number of registered vehicles in use per 1,000 people, including both passenger cars and commercial vehicles as of 2020:

CountryNumber of Vehicles in Use
per 1000 Inhabitants
Average Annual Growth Rate
2015-2020
🇳🇿 New Zealand8693%
🇺🇸 U.S.8602%
🇵🇱 Poland7614%
🇮🇹 Italy7561%
🇦🇺 Australia7372%
🇨🇦 Canada7073%
🇫🇷 France7041%
🇨🇿 Czechia6583%
🇵🇹 Portugal6402%
🇳🇴 Norway6351%
🇦🇹 Austria6322%
🇬🇧 UK6322%
🇩🇪 Germany6272%
🇪🇸 Spain6272%
🇬🇷 Greece6171%
🇯🇵 Japan6120%
🇨🇭 Switzerland6041%
🇧🇪 Belgium5901%
🇳🇱 Netherlands5882%
🇫🇮 Finland5771%
🇸🇪 Sweden5441%
🇩🇰 Denmark5402%
🇮🇪 Ireland5403%
🇲🇾 Malaysia5356%
🇸🇰 Slovakia5133%
🇱🇾 Libya4904%
🇧🇬 Bulgaria485-1%
🇭🇷 Croatia4743%
🇸🇾 Syria4727%
🇭🇺 Hungary4634%
🇰🇷 South Korea4582%
🇷🇴 Romania4387%
🇮🇱 Israel4044%
🇷🇺 Russia3892%
🇧🇾 Belarus3871%
🇲🇽 Mexico3584%
🇹🇼 Taiwan3441%
🇦🇪 UAE3438%
🇷🇸 Serbia3304%
🇦🇷 Argentina3110%
🇹🇭 Thailand2775%
🇨🇱 Chile2461%
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan226-1%
🇨🇳 China22314%
🇹🇷 Türkiye2204%
🇧🇷 Brazil2141%
🇺🇦 Ukraine192-1%
🇮🇷 Iran1832%
🇿🇦 South Africa1761%
🇪🇨 Ecuador1523%
🇻🇪 Venezuela149-1%
🇩🇿 Algeria1443%
🇲🇦 Morocco1124%
🇨🇴 Colombia1111%
🇮🇶 Iraq1114%
🇵🇪 Peru884%
🇮🇩 Indonesia785%
🇪🇬 Egypt644%
🇳🇬 Nigeria565%
🇻🇳 Vietnam5017%
🇵🇭 Philippines383%
🇮🇳 India3310%
🇵🇰 Pakistan207%

Clinching top spot is New Zealand, a country known for its love of cars.

With nearly nine cars on the road to every 10 people, this figure is notably high considering that children make up about 20% of the population. The majority of cars are imported second hand from Japan thanks to a wave of deregulation in the 1980s along with the country being a major producer of right-hand drive cars.

The U.S. falls close behind, with a clear preference for trucks and SUVs. In fact, the Ford F-1 Series has been the best-selling vehicle in America for 42 consecutive years.

In Europe, Poland has the highest number of vehicles per person, but one of the lowest share of electric vehicles (EVs). While EVs make up nearly 16% of all cars in top-ranking country Norway, they comprise 0.1% in Poland. On average, EVs account for 0.8% of passenger cars in the European Union.

Driven by an expanding middle class, Vietnam has seen the fastest growth in ownership. Between 2015 and 2020, the motorization rate grew by an astonishing 17% each year. Additionally, China witnessed 14% growth while India’s vehicles per 1,000 people increased 10% annually over the period.

The Top EV Markets, by Country

As EV sales gain momentum, here are the biggest markets worldwide, based on the number of all-EV cars in use as of 2022:

CountryEstimated Number of EVs in Use
2022
🇨🇳 China11,000,000
🇺🇸 U.S.2,100,000
🇩🇪 Germany1,000,000
🇫🇷 France620,000
🇳🇴 Norway590,000
🇬🇧 UK550,000
🇳🇱 Netherlands340,000
🇰🇷 South Korea300,000
🇨🇦 Canada250,000
🇯🇵 Japan210,000

Source: IEA Global EV Outlook 2023

China is home to over half of the world’s EVs.

Its foothold on the global EV market can be explained by its close proximity to the raw materials used in EV batteries. In fact, China produces roughly 70% of the world’s rare earth metals and has more battery production capacity than all other countries combined.

Adding to this, China developed key government policies that specifically tackled operational hurdles, such as battery constraints, leading to innovation in core technologies. In 2023, EVs made up 31% of all car sales in China, boosted by government incentives and strong consumer demand.

Norway is another leader in the EV market, whose government began introducing EV policies as early as 1990. By 2025, the country aims to phase out internal combustion engine vehicle sales completely. About 80% of all vehicles sales in Norway were EVs in 2022, the highest in the world.

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