The World's Population: Where Will The Next 1,000 Babies Come From?
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Where Will the World’s Next 1,000 Babies Be Born?

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Map showing where the next 1,000 babies will be born, based on birth rates and population estimates

Where Will the World’s Next 1,000 Babies Be Born?

View a higher resolution version of this map.

Every four minutes, approximately 1,000 babies are born across the globe. But in which countries are these babies the most statistically likely to come from?

Using data from the CIA World Factbook, this graphic by Pratap Vardhan (Stats of India) paints a picture of the world’s demographics, showing which countries are most likely to welcome the next 1,000 babies based on population and birth rates as of 2022 estimates.

The Next 1,000 Babies, By Country

Considering India has a population of nearly 1.4 billion, it’s fairly unsurprising that it ranks first on the list. Of every 1,000 babies born, the South Asian country accounts for roughly 172 of them.

PlaceRegionBirths Per 1,000 Global Babies
🇮🇳​ IndiaAsia171.62
🇨🇳 ChinaAsia102.84
🇳🇬 NigeriaAfrica56.50
🇵🇰 PakistanAsia47.23
🇨🇩 Congo, Democratic Republic of theAfrica31.90
🇮🇩 IndonesiaAsia31.20
🇺🇸 United StatesAmericas30.42
🇪🇹 EthiopiaAfrica25.44
🇧🇷 BrazilAmericas22.27
🇧🇩 BangladeshAsia21.52
🇵🇭 PhilippinesAsia18.75
🇪🇬 EgyptAfrica16.98
🇹🇿 TanzaniaAfrica15.61
🇺🇬 UgandaAfrica13.89
🇲🇽 MexicoAmericas12.85
🇻🇳 VietnamAsia11.96
🇸🇩 SudanAfrica11.79
🇰🇪 KenyaAfrica10.82
🇦🇴 AngolaAfrica10.68
🇦🇫 AfghanistanAsia9.98
🇷🇺 RussiaEurope9.85
🇮🇷 IranAsia9.73
🇲🇿 MozambiqueAfrica8.72
🇹🇷 TurkeyAsia8.71
🇳🇪 NigerAfrica8.46
🇿🇦 South AfricaAfrica7.84
🇨🇲 CameroonAfrica7.65
🇮🇶 IraqAsia7.34
🇬🇭 GhanaAfrica6.94
🇲🇲 MyanmarAsia6.90
🇯🇵 JapanAsia6.34
🇲🇱 MaliAfrica6.25
🇩🇿 AlgeriaAfrica6.01
🇨🇮 Cote d'IvoireAfrica5.97
🇲🇬 MadagascarAfrica5.93
🇫🇷 FranceEurope5.85
🇩🇪 GermanyEurope5.62
🇾🇪 YemenAsia5.61
🇨🇴 ColombiaAmericas5.48
🇧🇫 Burkina FasoAfrica5.41
🇬🇧 United KingdomEurope5.37
🇹🇩 ChadAfrica5.34
🇦🇷 ArgentinaAmericas5.29
🇹🇭 ThailandAsia5.19
🇿🇲 ZambiaAfrica5.03
🇲🇦 MoroccoAfrica4.70
🇲🇼 MalawiAfrica4.27
🇧🇯 BeninAfrica4.16
🇸🇳 SenegalAfrica4.15
🇵🇪 PeruAmericas4.08
🇳🇵 NepalAsia3.95
🇻🇪 VenezuelaAmericas3.78
🇸🇦 Saudi ArabiaAsia3.69
🇿🇼 ZimbabweAfrica3.67
🇲🇾 MalaysiaAsia3.62
🇸🇾 SyriaAsia3.60
🇺🇿 UzbekistanAsia3.55
🇬🇳 GuineaAfrica3.47
🇸🇴 SomaliaAfrica3.45
🇧🇮 BurundiAfrica3.28
🇸🇸 South SudanAfrica3.19
🇮🇹 ItalyEurope3.12
🇬🇹 GuatemalaAmericas2.90
🇺🇦 UkraineEurope2.88
🇨🇦 CanadaAmericas2.85
🇰🇵 Korea, NorthAsia2.71
🇰🇷 Korea, SouthAsia2.63
🇷🇼 RwandaAfrica2.56
🇪🇸 SpainEurope2.47
🇵🇱 PolandEurope2.38
🇰🇭 CambodiaAsia2.37
🇦🇺 AustraliaOceania2.36
🇱🇰 Sri LankaAsia2.35
🇰🇿 KazakhstanAsia2.19
🇪🇨 EcuadorAmericas2.09
🇸🇱 Sierra LeoneAfrica2.06
🇵🇬 Papua New GuineaOceania2.04
🇹🇬 TogoAfrica1.99
🇯🇴 JordanAsia1.82
🇭🇹 HaitiAmericas1.76
🇨🇱 ChileAmericas1.73
🇧🇴 BoliviaAmericas1.65
🇱🇷 LiberiaAfrica1.44
🇩🇴 Dominican RepublicAmericas1.42
🇳🇱 NetherlandsEurope1.40
🇹🇯 TajikistanAsia1.39
🇨🇫 Central African RepublicAfrica1.31
🇨🇬 Congo, Republic of theAfrica1.30
🇹🇼 TaiwanAsia1.28
🇹🇳 TunisiaAfrica1.28
🇭🇳 HondurasAmericas1.24
🇪🇷 EritreaAfrica1.23
🇷🇴 RomaniaEurope1.19
🇱🇦 LaosAsia1.19
🇮🇱 IsraelAsia1.14
🇱🇾 LibyaAfrica1.13
🇦🇿 AzerbaijanAsia1.03
🇧🇪 BelgiumEurope0.95
🇵🇾 ParaguayAmericas0.88
🇰🇬 KyrgyzstanAsia0.87
🇸🇻 El SalvadorAmericas0.86
🇲🇷 MauritaniaAfrica0.86
🇸🇪 SwedenEurope0.83
🇨🇺 CubaAmericas0.82
🇦🇪 United Arab EmiratesAsia0.79
🇳🇮 NicaraguaAmericas0.76
🇹🇲 TurkmenistanAsia0.72
🇨🇿 CzechiaEurope0.68
🇨🇭 SwitzerlandEurope0.65
🇧🇾 BelarusEurope0.63
🇦🇹 AustriaEurope0.62
🇭🇺 HungaryEurope0.62
🇴🇲 OmanAsia0.61
🇵🇹 PortugalEurope0.60
🇬🇷 GreeceEurope0.59
🇵🇦 PanamaAmericas0.57
🇨🇷 Costa RicaAmericas0.55
🇬🇼 Guinea-BissauAfrica0.54
🇵🇸 West BankAsia0.54
🇬🇲 GambiaAfrica0.51
🇱🇧 LebanonAsia0.51
🇳🇦 NamibiaAfrica0.50
🇳🇴 NorwayEurope0.49
🇩🇰 DenmarkEurope0.49
🇮🇪 IrelandEurope0.48
🇳🇿 New ZealandOceania0.47
🇬🇦 GabonAfrica0.45
🇷🇸 SerbiaEurope0.44
🇭🇰 Hong KongAsia0.43
🇫🇮 FinlandEurope0.43
🇧🇬 BulgariaEurope0.41
🇵🇸 Gaza StripAsia0.41
🇰🇼 KuwaitAsia0.40
🇬🇪 GeorgiaAsia0.40
🇸🇬 SingaporeAsia0.39
🇲🇳 MongoliaAsia0.38
🇱🇸 LesothoAfrica0.37
🇬🇶 Equatorial GuineaAfrica0.37
🇸🇰 SlovakiaEurope0.36
🇧🇼 BotswanaAfrica0.36
🇯🇲 JamaicaAmericas0.33
🇹🇱 Timor-LesteAsia0.33
🇺🇾 UruguayAmericas0.32
🇦🇱 AlbaniaEurope0.29
🇭🇷 CroatiaEurope0.27
🇲🇩 MoldovaEurope0.25
🇦🇲 ArmeniaAsia0.24
🇧🇦 Bosnia and HerzegovinaEurope0.24
🇽🇰 KosovoEurope0.21
🇸🇿 EswatiniAfrica0.19
🇱🇹 LithuaniaEurope0.18
🇵🇷 Puerto RicoAmericas0.18
🇶🇦 QatarAsia0.17
🇲🇰 North MacedoniaEurope0.16
🇩🇯 DjiboutiAfrica0.16
🇰🇲 ComorosAfrica0.14
🇧🇭 BahrainAsia0.14
🇸🇮 SloveniaEurope0.13
🇱🇻 LatviaEurope0.12
🇸🇧 Solomon IslandsOceania0.12
🇫🇯 FijiOceania0.11
🇹🇹 Trinidad and TobagoAmericas0.11
🇧🇹 BhutanAsia0.10
🇨🇾 CyprusAsia0.10
🇬🇾 GuyanaAmericas0.10
🇲🇺 MauritiusAfrica0.09
🇨🇻 Cabo VerdeAfrica0.08
🇪🇪 EstoniaEurope0.08
🇸🇷 SurinameAmericas0.07
🇧🇿 BelizeAmericas0.06
🇧🇳 BruneiAsia0.06
🇱🇺 LuxembourgEurope0.06
🇲🇪 MontenegroEurope0.05
🇻🇺 VanuatuOceania0.05
🇸🇹 Sao Tome and PrincipeAfrica0.04
🇲🇻 MaldivesAsia0.04
🇲🇴 MacauAsia0.04
🇧🇸 Bahamas, TheAmericas0.04
🇮🇸 IcelandEurope0.03
🇲🇹 MaltaEurope0.03
🇳🇨 New CaledoniaOceania0.03
🇵🇫 French PolynesiaOceania0.03
🇼🇸 SamoaOceania0.03
🇧🇧 BarbadosAmericas0.02
🇬🇺 GuamOceania0.02
🇰🇮 KiribatiOceania0.02
🇹🇴 TongaOceania0.02
🇨🇼 CuracaoAmericas0.01
🇱🇨 Saint LuciaAmericas0.01
🇫🇲 Micronesia, Federated States ofOceania0.01
🇲🇭 Marshall IslandsOceania0.01
🇬🇩 GrenadaAmericas0.01
🇦🇬 Antigua and BarbudaAmericas0.01
🇦🇼 ArubaAmericas0.01
🇯🇪 JerseyEurope0.01
🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the GrenadinesAmericas0.01
🇻🇮 Virgin IslandsAmericas0.01
🇸🇨 SeychellesAfrica0.01
🇩🇲 DominicaAmericas0.01
🇮🇲 Isle of ManEurope0.01
🇧🇲 BermudaAmericas0.01
🇲🇵 Northern Mariana IslandsOceania0.01
🇬🇱 GreenlandAmericas0.01
🇹🇨 Turks and Caicos IslandsAmericas0.01
🇫🇴 Faroe IslandsEurope0.01
🇦🇸 American SamoaOceania0.01
🇰🇾 Cayman IslandsAmericas0.01
🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and NevisAmericas0.00
🇬🇬 GuernseyEurope0.00
🇦🇩 AndorraEurope0.00
🇸🇽 Sint MaartenAmericas0.00
🇲🇫 Saint MartinAmericas0.00
🇻🇬 British Virgin IslandsAmericas0.00
🇬🇮 GibraltarEurope0.00
🇱🇮 LiechtensteinEurope0.00
🇸🇲 San MarinoEurope0.00
🇹🇻 TuvaluOceania0.00
🇵🇼 PalauOceania0.00
🇦🇮 AnguillaAmericas0.00
🇲🇨 MonacoEurope0.00
🇳🇷 NauruOceania0.00
🇼🇫 Wallis and FutunaOceania0.00
🇨🇰 Cook IslandsOceania0.00
🇸🇭 Saint Helena, Ascension, and Tristan da CunhaAfrica0.00
🇧🇱 Saint BarthelemyAmericas0.00
🇲🇸 MontserratAmericas0.00
🇫🇰 Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas)Americas0.00
🇵🇲 Saint Pierre and MiquelonAmericas0.00

It’s worth noting that, while India ranks number one on the list, the country’s birth rate (which is its total number of births in a year per 1,000 individuals) is actually slightly below the global average, at 16.8 compared to 17.7 respectively.

China, which comes second on the list, is similar to India, with a high population but relatively low birth rate as well. On the other hand, Nigeria, which ranks third on the list, has a birth rate that’s nearly double the global average, at 34.2.

Why is Nigeria’s birth rate so high?

There are various intermingling factors at play, but one key reason is the fact that Nigeria’s economy still is developing, and ranks 131st globally in terms of GDP per capita. Further, access to education for women is still not as widespread as it could be, and research shows that this is strongly correlated with higher birth rates.

The World’s Population Growth Rate is Declining

While there are hundreds of thousands of babies born around the world each day, it’s worth mentioning that the world’s overall population growth rate has actually been declining since the 1960s.

This is happening for a number of reasons, including:

  • Increased wealth around the world, which research has correlated with fewer births
  • Various government policies discouraging large families
  • The global shift from rural to urban living

By 2100, global population growth is expected to drop to 0.1%, which means we’ll essentially reach net-zero population growth.

This would increase our global median age even further, which poses a number of economic risks if countries don’t properly prepare for this demographic shift.

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This article was published as a part of Visual Capitalist's Creator Program, which features data-driven visuals from some of our favorite Creators around the world.

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Politics

Which Countries are the Most Polarized?

This chart plots polarization for various countries based on the Edelman Trust Institute’s annual survey of 32,000+ people.

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Which Countries are the Most Polarized?

How do you measure something that’s made headlines for half a decade but is still difficult to quantify? We’re talking about polarization.

Even within the social sciences, polarization covers everything from racial segregation, to labor skill levels, to class divide, to political ideology.

How Do You Quantify Polarization?

Edelman’s data on which countries are the most polarized comes from survey results asking respondents two very simple questions:

  • How divided is their country?
  • How entrenched is the divide?

The questions help bring to light the social issues a particular country is facing and the lack of consensus on those issues.

Plotted against each other, a chart emerges. A country in the top–right corner of the chart is “severely polarized.” Countries located closer to the lower–left are considered less polarized.

In the report, Edelman identifies four metrics to watch for and measure which help quantify polarization.

Economic AnxietiesWill my family be better off in five years?
Institutional ImbalanceGovernment is viewed as unethical and incompetent.
Class DividePeople with higher incomes have a higher trust in institutions.
Battle for TruthEcho chambers, and a low trust in media.

Following Edelman’s metrics, countries with economic uncertainty and inequality as well as institutional distrust are more likely to be polarized. Below, we look at key highlights from the chart.

Severely Polarized Countries

Despite being one of the largest economies in Latin America, Argentina is the most polarized country surveyed by a large margin. Foreign loan defaults, a high fiscal deficit, and now surging inflation have created a perfect storm in the country.

43% of the Argentinian respondents said they will be better off in five years, down 17 percentage points from last year.

Along with fiscal upheaval, Argentinians are also dealing with enduring corruption in the public sector and abrupt policy reversals between governments. Only 20% of those surveyed in Argentina said they trusted the government—the least of all surveyed countries.

Here are all six of the countries considered to be severely polarized:

    🇦🇷 Argentina
    🇨🇴 Colombia
    🇺🇸 United States
    🇿🇦 South Africa
    🇪🇸 Spain
    🇸🇪 Sweden

In the U.S., heightened political upheaval between Democrats and Republicans over the last few years has led to strengthening ideological stances and to an abundance of headlines about polarization. Only 42% of respondents in the country trust the government.

And in South Africa, persistent inequality and falling trust in the African National Congress also check off Edelman’s metrics. It’s also second after Argentina with the least trust in government (22%) per the survey.

Moderately Polarized Countries

The biggest cluster of 15 countries are in moderately polarized section of the chart, with all continents represented.

    🇧🇷 Brazil
    🇰🇷 South Korea
    🇲🇽 Mexico
    🇫🇷 France
    🇬🇧 United Kingdom
    🇯🇵 Japan
    🇳🇱 Netherlands
    🇮🇹 Italy
    🇩🇪 Germany
    🇳🇬 Nigeria
    🇹🇭 Thailand
    🇰🇪 Kenya
    🇨🇦 Canada
    🇦🇺 Australia
    🇮🇪 Ireland

Some are on the cusp of being severely polarized, including economic heavyweights like Japan, the UK, France, and Germany. On the other hand, smaller economies like Thailand, Kenya, and Nigeria, are doing comparatively better on the polarization chart.

Less Polarized Countries

Countries with fair economic outlook and high trust in institutions including China, Singapore, and India are in the bottom left sector of the chart.

    🇮🇩 Indonesia
    🇨🇳 China
    🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates
    🇸🇬 Singapore
    🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
    🇲🇾 Malaysia
    🇮🇳 India

It’s interesting to note that of the seven countries in that sector, three are not democracies. That said, there are also more developing countries on this list as well, which could also be a factor.

Looking Ahead

Edelman notes that polarization is both “cause and consequence of distrust,” creating a self-fulfilling cycle. Aside from the four metrics stated above, concerns about the erosion of civility and weakening social fabric also lead to polarization.

Edelman polarization quote

As global events unfold in 2023—including looming worries of a recession—it will be fascinating to see how countries might switch positions in the year to come.

Where does this data come from?

Source: The 2023 Edelman Trust Barometer

Data note: Survey conducted: Nov 1 – Nov 28, 2022. Survey included 32,000+ respondents in 28 countries. Russia was omitted from this year’s survey. See page 2 of the report for more details.

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