Demographics

The World Population Pyramid (1950-2100)

Published

2 years ago

December 2, 2021

Our World in Data

Featured Creator

Article/Editing:

Jeff Desjardins

Visualizing the World's Population Pyramid (1950-2100)

The world is in the midst of a notable period of demographic transition.

Back in the 1960s, global population growth peaked at a 2.1% annual rate, but since then it has been on a historic downtrend.

In fact, according to the most commonly cited United Nations projection, which is based on a medium fertility rate scenario, it’s expected that annual population growth could drop all the way to 0.1% by the end of the 21st century.

Visualizing a Demographic Transition

Today’s powerful charts come from Our World in Data by economist Max Roser, and they show how global demographics will shift over the next 80 years.

Below you can see one major catalyst of this change, which is the peaking (and then falling) population growth rate:

Growth in world population from 1950 to 2100

Why has population growth been dropping since the 1960s?

A variety of explanations factor into this, including:

Falling fertility rates:
Birth rates tend to fall as nations get richer. First, this happened in the developed world, but as the century progresses this phenomenon will impact more and more developing nations.
Government policy:
China’s “One Child Policy” in particular had an effect on global population growth, and the aftermath of the policy is still contributing to a shrinking Chinese population over the long term.
Rural flight
Urban dwellers tend to have fewer babies—and by 2050, there will be an additional 2.5 billion people living in cities globally.

Fewer births combined with improving healthcare—especially in developing nations—will dramatically alter the composition of the world population pyramid, creating both economic opportunities and challenges in the process.

The Changing World Population Pyramid

The following graphic charts how these changes affect the makeup of the world’s population.

World Population Pyramid transition

Over time, the shape of the world population pyramid is expected to shift from Stage 1 (high birth rates, high death rates) to something closer to Stage 4 (low birth rates, low death rates).

As the population distribution skews older, here is how population size and global median age will change:

Year	Global Population Size	Median Age
1950	2.6 billion	23.6 years
2018	7.6 billion	30.0 years
2050p	9.7 billion	36.1 years
2075p	10.7 billion	39.0 years
2100p	11.2 billion	41.6 years

Global median age is projected to surpass 40 years by the end of the century, and it will be considerably higher in many Western nations, especially in Japan and Europe.

With the future demographic composition looking very different than today, it will be fascinating to see how the economy responds to these potential tailwinds. Further, it will be even more interesting to see what role automation will play as the old-age dependency ratio hits historic highs.

This article was published as a part of Visual Capitalist's Creator Program, which features data-driven visuals from some of our favorite Creators around the world.

Related Topics:demographics population world age aging pyramid transition editors-choice

Click for Comments

Healthcare

Charted: Average Years Left to Live by Age

Visualizing the number of years left to live for Americans at every age, reveals the broader trends in American life expectancy.

Published

1 week ago

November 29, 2023

Pallavi Rao

Chart showing the average years left to live at every age for men and women.

How Many Years Do You Have Left to Live?

At the start of the 19th century, when there fewer than 1 billion humans on the earth, global life expectancy at birth stood at roughly 29 years.

This is a startlingly low figure—because life expectancy is a statistical projection of how many more years a person can expect to live, based on the mortality rates at the time. And since the infant mortality rate in particular was so high, life expectancies accurately summarized the low likelihood of many babies living to adulthood.

However, since the 1920s, life expectancy across all ages has improved leaps and bounds, thanks to rapid advancements in nutrition, healthcare, and sanitation.

We visualized the current American life expectancy by age and gender, using data from the Office of Social Security, which bases their current projections on 2020 mortality rates.

American Life Expectancy at Every Age

A key takeaway with life expectancy is that it increases as one gets older. This is easily seen in the table below, which lists the remaining years left to live at a given age for an American male and the projected life expectancy.

Age	Years Remaining (Men)	Life Expectancy (Men)
0	74.12	74.12
1	73.55	74.55
2	72.58	74.58
3	71.60	74.60
4	70.62	74.62
5	69.63	74.63
6	68.64	74.64
7	67.65	74.65
8	66.65	74.65
9	65.66	74.66
10	64.67	74.67
11	63.68	74.68
12	62.69	74.69
13	61.70	74.70
14	60.71	74.71
15	59.73	74.73
16	58.76	74.76
17	57.79	74.79
18	56.84	74.84
19	55.90	74.90
20	54.97	74.97
21	54.04	75.04
22	53.12	75.12
23	52.21	75.21
24	51.30	75.30
25	50.39	75.39
26	49.48	75.48
27	48.57	75.57
28	47.66	75.66
29	46.76	75.76
30	45.86	75.86
31	44.97	75.97
32	44.07	76.07
33	43.18	76.18
34	42.29	76.29
35	41.39	76.39
36	40.50	76.50
37	39.62	76.62
38	38.73	76.73
39	37.85	76.85
40	36.97	76.97
41	36.09	77.09
42	35.21	77.21
43	34.34	77.34
44	33.46	77.46
45	32.59	77.59
46	31.73	77.73
47	30.87	77.87
48	30.01	78.01
49	29.17	78.17
50	28.33	78.33
51	27.50	78.50
52	26.67	78.67
53	25.86	78.86
54	25.06	79.06
55	24.27	79.27
56	23.48	79.48
57	22.71	79.71
58	21.95	79.95
59	21.21	80.21
60	20.47	80.47
61	19.74	80.74
62	19.03	81.03
63	18.32	81.32
64	17.63	81.63
65	16.94	81.94
66	16.26	82.26
67	15.58	82.58
68	14.91	82.91
69	14.24	83.24
70	13.59	83.59
71	12.94	83.94
72	12.30	84.30
73	11.67	84.67
74	11.05	85.05
75	10.46	85.46
76	9.88	85.88
77	9.32	86.32
78	8.77	86.77
79	8.25	87.25
80	7.74	87.74
81	7.25	88.25
82	6.77	88.77
83	6.31	89.31
84	5.88	89.88
85	5.47	90.47
86	5.07	91.07
87	4.70	91.70
88	4.35	92.35
89	4.02	93.02
90	3.72	93.72
91	3.44	94.44
92	3.18	95.18
93	2.96	95.96
94	2.75	96.75
95	2.57	97.57
96	2.42	98.42
97	2.28	99.28
98	2.15	100.15
99	2.04	101.04
100	1.93	101.93
101	1.83	102.83
102	1.73	103.73
103	1.63	104.63
104	1.54	105.54
105	1.45	106.45
106	1.36	107.36
107	1.27	108.27
108	1.18	109.18
109	1.10	110.10
110	1.02	111.02
111	0.95	111.95
112	0.88	112.88
113	0.82	113.82
114	0.76	114.76
115	0.70	115.70
116	0.65	116.65
117	0.60	117.60
118	0.56	118.56
119	0.52	119.52
120	0.48	120.48

At birth, an average American baby boy can expect to live till just past 74. But if the boy reaches adulthood, then at 21 he might live to a full year more, past 75. This trend persists even towards the end of life when the years we have left drop rapidly, influenced by the higher likelihood of death.

American women, on the other hand, have a higher life expectancy than men. At birth the gap is close to six years, narrowing steadily to around one year by 85.

Age	Years Remaining (Women)	Life Expectancy (Women)
0	79.78	79.78
1	79.17	80.17
2	78.19	80.19
3	77.21	80.21
4	76.22	80.22
5	75.23	80.23
6	74.24	80.24
7	73.25	80.25
8	72.25	80.25
9	71.26	80.26
10	70.27	80.27
11	69.27	80.27
12	68.28	80.28
13	67.29	80.29
14	66.30	80.30
15	65.31	80.31
16	64.32	80.32
17	63.34	80.34
18	62.36	80.36
19	61.38	80.38
20	60.41	80.41
21	59.44	80.44
22	58.47	80.47
23	57.50	80.50
24	56.54	80.54
25	55.58	80.58
26	54.61	80.61
27	53.66	80.66
28	52.70	80.70
29	51.74	80.74
30	50.79	80.79
31	49.84	80.84
32	48.89	80.89
33	47.94	80.94
34	47.00	81.00
35	46.06	81.06
36	45.12	81.12
37	44.18	81.18
38	43.24	81.24
39	42.31	81.31
40	41.38	81.38
41	40.45	81.45
42	39.52	81.52
43	38.60	81.60
44	37.68	81.68
45	36.76	81.76
46	35.85	81.85
47	34.94	81.94
48	34.04	82.04
49	33.14	82.14
50	32.24	82.24
51	31.35	82.35
52	30.47	82.47
53	29.59	82.59
54	28.72	82.72
55	27.86	82.86
56	27.01	83.01
57	26.16	83.16
58	25.32	83.32
59	24.49	83.49
60	23.67	83.67
61	22.85	83.85
62	22.04	84.04
63	21.24	84.24
64	20.45	84.45
65	19.66	84.66
66	18.88	84.88
67	18.10	85.10
68	17.34	85.34
69	16.58	85.58
70	15.82	85.82
71	15.08	86.08
72	14.36	86.36
73	13.64	86.64
74	12.94	86.94
75	12.26	87.26
76	11.60	87.60
77	10.95	87.95
78	10.31	88.31
79	9.70	88.70
80	9.10	89.10
81	8.53	89.53
82	7.98	89.98
83	7.44	90.44
84	6.93	90.93
85	6.44	91.44
86	5.99	91.99
87	5.55	92.55
88	5.15	93.15
89	4.76	93.76
90	4.41	94.41
91	4.08	95.08
92	3.78	95.78
93	3.51	96.51
94	3.27	97.27
95	3.05	98.05
96	2.85	98.85
97	2.68	99.68
98	2.52	100.52
99	2.37	101.37
100	2.23	102.23
101	2.09	103.09
102	1.96	103.96
103	1.84	104.84
104	1.72	105.72
105	1.61	106.61
106	1.51	107.51
107	1.41	108.41
108	1.32	109.32
109	1.24	110.24
110	1.16	111.16
111	1.09	112.09
112	1.02	113.02
113	0.96	113.96
114	0.90	114.90
115	0.85	115.85
116	0.80	116.80
117	0.75	117.75
118	0.70	118.70
119	0.66	119.66
120	0.62	120.62

Interestingly, women outlive men in nearly every country in the world, due to a mix of sociological, behavioral, and biological reasons.

COVID-19: Reversing A Decade of Increasing American Life Expectancy

While the current American life expectancy at birth seems reasonably high, it is nearly two years lower than the 2022 figure which used the 2019 mortality rate. It is also lower than the life expectancy at birth in 2009, which used 2005 mortality rate.

Year	Life Expectancy at Birth (Men)	Life Expectancy at Birth (Women)
2009	74.12	79.95
2014	76.10	80.94
2019	76.04	80.99
2023	74.12	79.78

American mortality rates went up 17% between 2019–2020, in part because of COVID-19, in turn affecting life expectancy. The U.S. also had a higher COVID-19 mortality rate compared to its peers two years after the pandemic first struck.

Thus, American life expectancy may not improve immediately to 2019 levels, which can affect insurance premiums, pension benefits, and plans.

Where Does This Data Come From?

Source: Office of Social Security, U.S. Government.

Note: The life expectancy at a given age is the average remaining number of years expected prior to death for a person at that exact age, born on January 1, using the mortality rates for 2020 over the course of their remaining life.