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Survey Results: Will Global Stock Markets Crash in 2023?

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how likely is it that global stock markets will crash, according to country predictions

Survey Results: Will Global Stock Markets Crash in 2023?

For the upcoming year, expert predictions have ranged from extreme optimism to not-so-subtle nervousness, especially when it comes to gauging the health of the global economy.

This chart from Gilbert Fontana skips past expert predictions, and looks directly at those of citizens in multiple countries around the world.

Using data from the Ipsos Global Advisor Predictions surveys from 2019โ€’2023, the chart plots the percentage of average citizens that think global stock markets will crash in the upcoming year.

Methodology

The annual reports used to generate the charts draw from a 36-country survey of more than 24,000 adults. Each country shown had at least 500 individuals sampled, with countries in the G7 and other major economies including China, Brazil, and South Korea having approximately 1,000 individuals sampled.

Specifically, respondents were asked a question on whether “major stock markets around the world will crash” in the following year, and were asked to respond either “likely” or “unlikely”.

Responses were collected at the end of the previous year in question. For example, for 2023, survey data was collected in October and November 2022. Responses of uncertainty or non-answers weren’t included in the chart above.

And across the board, each country’s data was also weighted to accurately reflect its demographic profile according to recent census data.

Stock Markets Crash Predictions By Country

When looking forward to 2023, most of the respondents from around the world felt that the likelihood of global stock markets crashing was more likely than unlikely.

Market Crash Predictions by CountryLikely (2023)Unlikely (2023)
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina48%28%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia57%25%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium49%27%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil44%40%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada45%32%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Chile59%29%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China40%50%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France42%35%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany43%30%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Great Britain (United Kingdom)47%30%
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ Hungary33%47%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ India59%27%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Israel35%42%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy42%35%
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan40%26%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡พ Malaysia71%15%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico50%29%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands44%31%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ช Peru56%30%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ Poland66%19%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Saudi Arabia51%29%
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ South Africa63%23%
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea52%37%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain49%31%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Sweden50%33%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Turkey47%38%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States47%31%
๐ŸŒŽ Global Average50%31%

In 24 of the 27 countries sampled, citizens thought it was more likely than not that global stock markets would crash in 2023. This includes the entire G7, with 40โ€“47% of each member’s citizens responding “likely” compared to 26โ€“35% responding “unlikely.”

The most pessimistic responses came from Malaysia, Poland, and South Africa, where more than 60% of respondents thought it was likely that markets would crash in 2023. Malaysian citizens led the way with 71% viewing a 2023 crash as likely.

The only three countries where citizens believed a 2023 stock market crash was less likely were China, Israel, and Hungary. China had the highest “unlikely” response rate at 50%, while in Hungary, just 33% of respondents responded “likely” compared to 47% responding unlikely.

Changing Stock Market Sentiments

When comparing 2023 responses to those from 2019, we can see that the last five years have brought uncertainty and pessimism to most countries:

Change in Market Crash Predictions% Likely Change (2019-2023)% Unlikely Change (2019-2023)
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina+20 pp-18 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia+15 pp-15 pp
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium+09 pp-12 pp
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil+11 pp-11 pp
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada+12 pp-13 pp
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Chile+32 pp-23 pp
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China+12 pp-09 pp
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France+06 pp-05 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany+10 pp-07 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Great Britain (United Kingdom)0 pp-02 pp
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ Hungary+09 pp-08 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ India+26 pp-24 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Israel+03 pp0 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy+11 pp-08 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan-04 pp-06 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡พ Malaysia+07 pp-09 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico+20 pp-21 pp
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands+03 pp-09 pp
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ช Peru+30 pp-23 pp
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ Poland+21 pp-18 pp
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Saudi Arabia+03 pp-11 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ South Africa+28 pp-26 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea+26 pp-26 pp
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain+18 pp-05 pp
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Sweden+04 pp-02 pp
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Turkey+05 pp-06 pp
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States+09 pp-15 pp
๐ŸŒŽ Global Average+13 pp-13 pp

Responses of global stock markets likely crashing rose in 25 of the 27 countries, with 8 countries increasing by more than 20 percentage points (pp). Notably, neighbors Chile and Peru had the highest increases at 32 pp and 30 pp respectively.

But neighboring sentiments didn’t track worldwide. For example, while South Korea had one of the biggest increases in “likely” responses towards stock markets crashing at 26 pp, Japan was the only country that responded in a lower likelihood by 4 pp.

While global sentiment is becoming increasingly pessimistic, we can also see that previous year’s predictions didn’t always pan out. So the question remains, what will 2023 really bring?

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This article was published as a part of Visual Capitalist's Creator Program, which features data-driven visuals from some of our favorite Creators around the world.

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Maps

Mapped: How Much Does it Take to be the Top 1% in Each U.S. State?

An annual income anywhere between $360,000-$950,000 can grant entry into the top 1%โ€”depending on where you live in America.

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A cropped map of the U.S. listing the annual income needed to be in the top 1% in each state.

How Much Does it Take to be the Top 1% in Each U.S. State?

Thereโ€™s an old saying: everyone thinks that theyโ€™re middle-class.

But how many people think, or know, that they really belong to the top 1% in the country?

Data from personal finance advisory services company, SmartAsset, reveals the annual income threshold at which a household can be considered part of the top 1% in their state.

Some states demand a much higher yearly earnings from their residents to be a part of the rarefied league, but which ones are they, and how much does one need to earn to make it to the very top echelon of income?

Ranking U.S. States By Income to Be in the Top 1%

At the top of the list, a household in Connecticut needs to earn nearly $953,000 annually to be part of the one-percenters. This is the highest minimum threshold across the country.

In the same region, Massachusetts requires a minimum annual earnings of $903,401 from its top 1% residents.

Hereโ€™s the list of all 50 U.S. states along with the annual income needed to be in the 1%.

RankStateTop 1% Income
Threshold
Top 1% Tax Rate
(% of annual income)
1Connecticut$952,90228.40%
2Massachusetts$903,40127.15%
3California$844,26626.95%
4New Jersey$817,34628.01%
5Washington$804,85325.99%
6New York$776,66228.29%
7Colorado$709,09225.86%
8Florida$694,98725.82%
9Illinois$660,81026.35%
10New Hampshire$659,03726.25%
11Wyoming$656,11824.79%
12Virginia$643,84826.11%
N/ANational Average$652,657N/A
13Maryland$633,33325.94%
14Texas$631,84925.83%
15Utah$630,54423.77%
16Minnesota$626,45125.53%
17Nevada$603,75125.19%
18South Dakota$590,37322.99%
19Pennsylvania$588,70224.95%
20North Dakota$585,55624.76%
21Georgia$585,39725.06%
22Oregon$571,81324.66%
23Arizona$564,03125.22%
24Idaho$560,04023.17%
25North Carolina$559,76225.31%
26Montana$559,65624.46%
27Kansas$554,91225.03%
28Rhode Island$548,53125.26%
29Tennessee$548,32925.12%
30Alaska$542,82425.38%
31Nebraska$535,65124.10%
32Delaware$529,92825.37%
33Vermont$518,03923.63%
34Wisconsin$517,32124.90%
35South Carolina$508,42724.40%
36Michigan$504,67125.01%
37Maine$502,60524.04%
38Missouri$500,62624.93%
39Ohio$500,25325.09%
40Hawaii$495,26324.12%
41Iowa$483,98524.09%
42Indiana$473,68524.55%
43Alabama$470,34123.82%
44Oklahoma$460,17223.68%
45Louisiana$458,26924.80%
46Arkansas$450,70021.11%
47Kentucky$445,29424.14%
48New Mexico$411,39523.35%
49Mississippi$381,91923.04%
50West Virginia$367,58223.26%
N/ANational Median
Household Income
$75,000N/A

California ($844,266), New Jersey ($817,346), and Washington ($804,853) round out the top five states with the highest minimum thresholds to make it to their exclusive rich club.

On the other end of the spectrum, the top one-percenters in West Virginia make a minimum of $367,582 a year, the lowest of all the states, and about one-third of the threshold in Connecticut. And just down southwest of the Mountain State, Mississippiโ€™s one-percenters need to make at least $381,919 a year to qualify for the 1%.

A quick glance at the map above also reveals some regional insights.

The Northeast and West Coast, with their large urban and economic hubs, have higher income entry requirements for the top 1% than states in the American South.

This also correlates to the median income by state, a measure showing Massachusetts households make nearly $90,000 a year, compared to Mississippians who take home $49,000 annually.

How Much Do the Top 1% Pay in Taxes?

Meanwhile, if one does make it to the top 1% in states like Connecticut and Massachusetts, expect to pay more in taxes than other states, according to SmartAssetโ€™s analysis.

A chart showing how states with the top highest and lowest average tax rates for their top 1% residents.

The one-percenters in the top five states pay, on average, between 26โ€“28% of their income in tax, compared to those in the bottom five who pay between 21โ€“23%.

And this pattern exists through the dataset, with higher top 1% income thresholds correlating with higher average tax rates for the wealthy.

State RanksMedian Tax Rate
Top 1026.65%
20-3025.09%
30-4024.65%
10-2025.07%
40-5023.75%

These higher tax rates point to attempts to reign in the increasing wealth disparity in the nation where the top 1% hold more than one-third of the countryโ€™s wealth, up from 27% in 1989.

Where Does This Data Come From?

Source: SmartAsset’s Americaโ€™s Top 1% Is Different in Each State uses data from 2020 individual tax filings from the IRS, adjusted to 2023 dollars using the Bureau of Labor Statisticsโ€™ Consumer Price Index.

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