Survey Results: Will Global Stock Markets Crash in 2023?
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Survey Results: Will Global Stock Markets Crash in 2023?

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how likely is it that global stock markets will crash, according to country predictions

Survey Results: Will Global Stock Markets Crash in 2023?

For the upcoming year, expert predictions have ranged from extreme optimism to not-so-subtle nervousness, especially when it comes to gauging the health of the global economy.

This chart from Gilbert Fontana skips past expert predictions, and looks directly at those of citizens in multiple countries around the world.

Using data from the Ipsos Global Advisor Predictions surveys from 2019‒2023, the chart plots the percentage of average citizens that think global stock markets will crash in the upcoming year.

Methodology

The annual reports used to generate the charts draw from a 36-country survey of more than 24,000 adults. Each country shown had at least 500 individuals sampled, with countries in the G7 and other major economies including China, Brazil, and South Korea having approximately 1,000 individuals sampled.

Specifically, respondents were asked a question on whether “major stock markets around the world will crash” in the following year, and were asked to respond either “likely” or “unlikely”.

Responses were collected at the end of the previous year in question. For example, for 2023, survey data was collected in October and November 2022. Responses of uncertainty or non-answers weren’t included in the chart above.

And across the board, each country’s data was also weighted to accurately reflect its demographic profile according to recent census data.

Stock Markets Crash Predictions By Country

When looking forward to 2023, most of the respondents from around the world felt that the likelihood of global stock markets crashing was more likely than unlikely.

Market Crash Predictions by CountryLikely (2023)Unlikely (2023)
🇦🇷 Argentina48%28%
🇦🇺 Australia57%25%
🇧🇪 Belgium49%27%
🇧🇷 Brazil44%40%
🇨🇦 Canada45%32%
🇨🇱 Chile59%29%
🇨🇳 China40%50%
🇫🇷 France42%35%
🇩🇪 Germany43%30%
🇬🇧 Great Britain (United Kingdom)47%30%
🇭🇺 Hungary33%47%
🇮🇳 India59%27%
🇮🇱 Israel35%42%
🇮🇹 Italy42%35%
🇯🇵 Japan40%26%
🇲🇾 Malaysia71%15%
🇲🇽 Mexico50%29%
🇳🇱 Netherlands44%31%
🇵🇪 Peru56%30%
🇵🇱 Poland66%19%
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia51%29%
🇿🇦 South Africa63%23%
🇰🇷 South Korea52%37%
🇪🇸 Spain49%31%
🇸🇪 Sweden50%33%
🇹🇷 Turkey47%38%
🇺🇸 United States47%31%
🌎 Global Average50%31%

In 24 of the 27 countries sampled, citizens thought it was more likely than not that global stock markets would crash in 2023. This includes the entire G7, with 40–47% of each member’s citizens responding “likely” compared to 26–35% responding “unlikely.”

The most pessimistic responses came from Malaysia, Poland, and South Africa, where more than 60% of respondents thought it was likely that markets would crash in 2023. Malaysian citizens led the way with 71% viewing a 2023 crash as likely.

The only three countries where citizens believed a 2023 stock market crash was less likely were China, Israel, and Hungary. China had the highest “unlikely” response rate at 50%, while in Hungary, just 33% of respondents responded “likely” compared to 47% responding unlikely.

Changing Stock Market Sentiments

When comparing 2023 responses to those from 2019, we can see that the last five years have brought uncertainty and pessimism to most countries:

Change in Market Crash Predictions% Likely Change (2019-2023)% Unlikely Change (2019-2023)
🇦🇷 Argentina+20 pp-18 pp
🇦🇺 Australia+15 pp-15 pp
🇧🇪 Belgium+09 pp-12 pp
🇧🇷 Brazil+11 pp-11 pp
🇨🇦 Canada+12 pp-13 pp
🇨🇱 Chile+32 pp-23 pp
🇨🇳 China+12 pp-09 pp
🇫🇷 France+06 pp-05 pp
🇩🇪 Germany+10 pp-07 pp
🇬🇧 Great Britain (United Kingdom)0 pp-02 pp
🇭🇺 Hungary+09 pp-08 pp
🇮🇳 India+26 pp-24 pp
🇮🇱 Israel+03 pp0 pp
🇮🇹 Italy+11 pp-08 pp
🇯🇵 Japan-04 pp-06 pp
🇲🇾 Malaysia+07 pp-09 pp
🇲🇽 Mexico+20 pp-21 pp
🇳🇱 Netherlands+03 pp-09 pp
🇵🇪 Peru+30 pp-23 pp
🇵🇱 Poland+21 pp-18 pp
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia+03 pp-11 pp
🇿🇦 South Africa+28 pp-26 pp
🇰🇷 South Korea+26 pp-26 pp
🇪🇸 Spain+18 pp-05 pp
🇸🇪 Sweden+04 pp-02 pp
🇹🇷 Turkey+05 pp-06 pp
🇺🇸 United States+09 pp-15 pp
🌎 Global Average+13 pp-13 pp

Responses of global stock markets likely crashing rose in 25 of the 27 countries, with 8 countries increasing by more than 20 percentage points (pp). Notably, neighbors Chile and Peru had the highest increases at 32 pp and 30 pp respectively.

But neighboring sentiments didn’t track worldwide. For example, while South Korea had one of the biggest increases in “likely” responses towards stock markets crashing at 26 pp, Japan was the only country that responded in a lower likelihood by 4 pp.

While global sentiment is becoming increasingly pessimistic, we can also see that previous year’s predictions didn’t always pan out. So the question remains, what will 2023 really bring?

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This article was published as a part of Visual Capitalist's Creator Program, which features data-driven visuals from some of our favorite Creators around the world.

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Charted: The Dipping Cost of Shipping

After a dramatic spike during the pandemic, shipping costs have now fallen back to Earth. What does that mean for shippers and the economy?

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The Dipping Cost of Shipping

A little over one year ago, congestion at America’s West Coast ports were making headlines, and the global cost of shipping containers had reached record highs.

Today, shipping costs have come back down to Earth, with some routes approaching pre-pandemic levels. The graphic above, using data from Freightos, shows just how dramatically costs have fallen in a short amount of time.

The Freightos Baltic Index (FBX)—a widely recognized benchmark for global freight rates—has fallen 80% since its peak in late 2021.

Shipping RoutePeak Price (Last 90 days)Recent PriceChange
East Asia -> North America West$2,702$1,323-51%
North America West -> East Asia$1,037$805-22%
East Asia -> North America East$6,296$2,812-55%
East Asia -> North Europe$4,853$2,978-39%
North America East -> North Europe$850$552-35%
North Europe -> North America East$7,102$5,507-22%

Why Shipping Costs Matter

The vast majority of trade is conducted over the world’s oceans, so skyrocketing shipping costs can wreak havoc on the global economy.

A recent study from the IMF, which included 143 countries over the past 30 years, found that shipping costs are an important driver of inflation around the world. In fact, when freight rates double, inflation increases by 0.7 of a percentage point.

Of course, some nations feel the effects of higher shipping costs more acutely than others. Countries that import more of what they consume and that are more integrated into the global supply chain are more likely to see inflation rise as shipping costs elevate.

Falling Freight Rates Are a Good Thing, Right?

Falling shipping costs are great news for everyone except, well…shippers.

While most of us can eventually look forward to improved supply chain efficiency and less inflationary pressure, shipping companies are seeing the end of a two-year boom period.

For example, major shippers like COSCO and Hapag-Lloyd saw a staggering 10x or more increase in profit per 20-foot equivalent unit (TEU) shipped.

For the time being, carriers are canceling voyages and sending obsolete ships to scrap to keep prices from bottoming out completely. In early January, container spot freight rates rose for first time in 43 weeks, signaling that the rollercoaster ride that shipping rates have been on since the start of the pandemic may be coming to an end.

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