Survey Results: Will Global Stock Markets Crash in 2023?
For the upcoming year, expert predictions have ranged from extreme optimism to not-so-subtle nervousness, especially when it comes to gauging the health of the global economy.
This chart from Gilbert Fontana skips past expert predictions, and looks directly at those of citizens in multiple countries around the world.
Using data from the Ipsos Global Advisor Predictions surveys from 2019‒2023, the chart plots the percentage of average citizens that think global stock markets will crash in the upcoming year.
The annual reports used to generate the charts draw from a 36-country survey of more than 24,000 adults. Each country shown had at least 500 individuals sampled, with countries in the G7 and other major economies including China, Brazil, and South Korea having approximately 1,000 individuals sampled.
Specifically, respondents were asked a question on whether “major stock markets around the world will crash” in the following year, and were asked to respond either “likely” or “unlikely”.
Responses were collected at the end of the previous year in question. For example, for 2023, survey data was collected in October and November 2022. Responses of uncertainty or non-answers weren’t included in the chart above.
And across the board, each country’s data was also weighted to accurately reflect its demographic profile according to recent census data.
Stock Markets Crash Predictions By Country
When looking forward to 2023, most of the respondents from around the world felt that the likelihood of global stock markets crashing was more likely than unlikely.
|Market Crash Predictions by Country||Likely (2023)||Unlikely (2023)|
|🇬🇧 Great Britain (United Kingdom)||47%||30%|
|🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia||51%||29%|
|🇿🇦 South Africa||63%||23%|
|🇰🇷 South Korea||52%||37%|
|🇺🇸 United States||47%||31%|
|🌎 Global Average||50%||31%|
In 24 of the 27 countries sampled, citizens thought it was more likely than not that global stock markets would crash in 2023. This includes the entire G7, with 40–47% of each member’s citizens responding “likely” compared to 26–35% responding “unlikely.”
The most pessimistic responses came from Malaysia, Poland, and South Africa, where more than 60% of respondents thought it was likely that markets would crash in 2023. Malaysian citizens led the way with 71% viewing a 2023 crash as likely.
The only three countries where citizens believed a 2023 stock market crash was less likely were China, Israel, and Hungary. China had the highest “unlikely” response rate at 50%, while in Hungary, just 33% of respondents responded “likely” compared to 47% responding unlikely.
Changing Stock Market Sentiments
When comparing 2023 responses to those from 2019, we can see that the last five years have brought uncertainty and pessimism to most countries:
|Change in Market Crash Predictions||% Likely Change (2019-2023)||% Unlikely Change (2019-2023)|
|🇦🇷 Argentina||+20 pp||-18 pp|
|🇦🇺 Australia||+15 pp||-15 pp|
|🇧🇪 Belgium||+09 pp||-12 pp|
|🇧🇷 Brazil||+11 pp||-11 pp|
|🇨🇦 Canada||+12 pp||-13 pp|
|🇨🇱 Chile||+32 pp||-23 pp|
|🇨🇳 China||+12 pp||-09 pp|
|🇫🇷 France||+06 pp||-05 pp|
|🇩🇪 Germany||+10 pp||-07 pp|
|🇬🇧 Great Britain (United Kingdom)||0 pp||-02 pp|
|🇭🇺 Hungary||+09 pp||-08 pp|
|🇮🇳 India||+26 pp||-24 pp|
|🇮🇱 Israel||+03 pp||0 pp|
|🇮🇹 Italy||+11 pp||-08 pp|
|🇯🇵 Japan||-04 pp||-06 pp|
|🇲🇾 Malaysia||+07 pp||-09 pp|
|🇲🇽 Mexico||+20 pp||-21 pp|
|🇳🇱 Netherlands||+03 pp||-09 pp|
|🇵🇪 Peru||+30 pp||-23 pp|
|🇵🇱 Poland||+21 pp||-18 pp|
|🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia||+03 pp||-11 pp|
|🇿🇦 South Africa||+28 pp||-26 pp|
|🇰🇷 South Korea||+26 pp||-26 pp|
|🇪🇸 Spain||+18 pp||-05 pp|
|🇸🇪 Sweden||+04 pp||-02 pp|
|🇹🇷 Turkey||+05 pp||-06 pp|
|🇺🇸 United States||+09 pp||-15 pp|
|🌎 Global Average||+13 pp||-13 pp|
Responses of global stock markets likely crashing rose in 25 of the 27 countries, with 8 countries increasing by more than 20 percentage points (pp). Notably, neighbors Chile and Peru had the highest increases at 32 pp and 30 pp respectively.
But neighboring sentiments didn’t track worldwide. For example, while South Korea had one of the biggest increases in “likely” responses towards stock markets crashing at 26 pp, Japan was the only country that responded in a lower likelihood by 4 pp.
While global sentiment is becoming increasingly pessimistic, we can also see that previous year’s predictions didn’t always pan out. So the question remains, what will 2023 really bring?
This article was published as a part of Visual Capitalist's Creator Program, which features data-driven visuals from some of our favorite Creators around the world.
Ranked: The 20 Best Franchises to Open in the U.S.
Considering factors like the cost of investment and number of locations, this graphic breaks down the best franchises in the U.S.
Ranked: The 20 Best Franchises in the U.S.
The U.S. is famous for chain restaurants, franchised shops, and brand name hotels. One thing these franchises aim for is consistency in store feel, customer service, product offerings, and prices, no matter which state you’re in.
This visualization uses Entrepreneur’s annual Franchise 500 Ranking to showcase the best franchises in the U.S. worth owning, from Dunkin’ Donuts to Snap-on Tools.
The Best and How They Were Selected
The report assessed five broad categories to score the country’s famous chains:
- Costs & fees: including franchise fee, total investment needed to open one store, and royalty fees
- Support: including training times, marketing support, operational support, franchisor infrastructure, financing infrastructure, and litigation
- Size & growth: including open & operating units, growth rate, and closures
- Brand strength: including social media, system size, years in business, years franchising
- Financial strength & stability: including franchisor’s audited financial statements
A franchise was only considered if it was actively seeking new franchisees and must have already had at least 10 units operating.
Here’s a closer look at the top 20:
|Rank||Franchise||Initial Investment Needed||Global Units 2022|
|#1||Taco Bell||$576K - $3.4M||7,900|
|#2||Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen||$384K - $3.5M||3,851|
|#3||Jersey Mike's Subs||$194K - $955K||2,402|
|#4||The UPS Store||$122K - $508K||5,464|
|#5||Dunkin'||$438K - $1.8M||12,957|
|#6||Kumon||$67K - $146K||26,527|
|#7||Ace Hardware||$292K - $2.1M||5,746|
|#8||Culver's||$2.3M - $5.8M||871|
|#9||Hampton by Hilton||$12.3M - $22.8M||2,824|
|#10||Wingstop||$315K - $948K||1,873|
|#11||Tropical Smoothie Cafe||$277K - $584K||1,142|
|#12||Arby's||$629K - $2.3M||3,561|
|#13||KFC||$1.4M - $3.2M||26,498|
|#14||McDonald's||$1.4M - $2.5M||39,696|
|#15||Wendy's||$330K - $3.7M||7,049|
|#16||Servpro||$217K - $271K||2,050|
|#17||Smoothie King||$264K - $1.2M||1,373|
|#18||7-Eleven||$125K - $1.3M||81,887|
|#19||Budget Blinds||$141K - $212K||1,378|
|#20||Snap-on Tools||$201K - $465K||4,771|
The number one franchise, Taco Bell, has been in business since 1964 and has 7,900 locations as of 2022, spanning beyond the U.S. to Canada, Australia, Europe, and other regions of the world. The average cost of investment to be a franchisee is between $576,000 to $3.4 million.
While most of the top 20 are in the food service industry, there is also one hotel, one shipping company, and a few hardware and home goods stores that make the list.
Ace Hardware (#7), for example, which specializes in home improvement goods, is actually an international franchise with close to 6,000 units. Kumon (#6) is an education center and is the only non-U.S. franchise on the list.
The Feasibility of Being a Franchisee
To get a better sense of the costs needed to start a franchise, let’s take a look at one of the most famous convenience stores in the world. Here’s a sample of the different fees involved in 7-Eleven’s initial franchisee process:
|Initial Franchise Fee||$0 - $1,000,000|
|Initial Investment||$125,250 - $1,333,500|
|Cash Requirement||$50,000 - $250,000|
|Veteran Incentives||10-20% off franchise fee, up to $50,000; preferred interest rates and special financing|
|Ad Royalty Fee||1%|
|Term of Agreement||15 years|
|Is franchise term renewable?||Yes|
In terms of low-cost franchises, 7-Eleven is among one of the cheapest to open, according to Entrepreneur, sometimes costing less than $150K. Other franchises with lower cost barriers of entry include UPS ($122K – $508K) and Cinnabon ($112K – $547K).
There is more to consider than cost, of course, and some franchises provide better support than others in aspects such as financing, industry training, or legal support. Popeye’s, for instance, provides in-house financing for their franchise fee, as well as connections with third-party sources to help cover equipment, inventory, payroll, and other expenses.
Looking at feasibility in regards to opportunities, some of the fastest-growing franchises include chains like Jersey Mike’s Subs and Wingstop. Here’s a closer look at the Franchise 500’s fastest growing list:
- #1 Stratus Building Solutions
- #2 Jersey Mike’s Subs
- #3 Goosehead Insurance
- #4 Signal
- #5 Wingstop
In total there are almost 800,000 franchises in the U.S. The franchise market in the country has an economic output of over $825 billion and employs over 8.4 million people. With many of these franchises continuing to grow and seek new franchisees, there is ample opportunity in the market.
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