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Survey Results: Will Global Stock Markets Crash in 2023?

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how likely is it that global stock markets will crash, according to country predictions

Survey Results: Will Global Stock Markets Crash in 2023?

For the upcoming year, expert predictions have ranged from extreme optimism to not-so-subtle nervousness, especially when it comes to gauging the health of the global economy.

This chart from Gilbert Fontana skips past expert predictions, and looks directly at those of citizens in multiple countries around the world.

Using data from the Ipsos Global Advisor Predictions surveys from 2019‒2023, the chart plots the percentage of average citizens that think global stock markets will crash in the upcoming year.

Methodology

The annual reports used to generate the charts draw from a 36-country survey of more than 24,000 adults. Each country shown had at least 500 individuals sampled, with countries in the G7 and other major economies including China, Brazil, and South Korea having approximately 1,000 individuals sampled.

Specifically, respondents were asked a question on whether “major stock markets around the world will crash” in the following year, and were asked to respond either “likely” or “unlikely”.

Responses were collected at the end of the previous year in question. For example, for 2023, survey data was collected in October and November 2022. Responses of uncertainty or non-answers weren’t included in the chart above.

And across the board, each country’s data was also weighted to accurately reflect its demographic profile according to recent census data.

Stock Markets Crash Predictions By Country

When looking forward to 2023, most of the respondents from around the world felt that the likelihood of global stock markets crashing was more likely than unlikely.

Market Crash Predictions by CountryLikely (2023)Unlikely (2023)
🇦🇷 Argentina48%28%
🇦🇺 Australia57%25%
🇧🇪 Belgium49%27%
🇧🇷 Brazil44%40%
🇨🇦 Canada45%32%
🇨🇱 Chile59%29%
🇨🇳 China40%50%
🇫🇷 France42%35%
🇩🇪 Germany43%30%
🇬🇧 Great Britain (United Kingdom)47%30%
🇭🇺 Hungary33%47%
🇮🇳 India59%27%
🇮🇱 Israel35%42%
🇮🇹 Italy42%35%
🇯🇵 Japan40%26%
🇲🇾 Malaysia71%15%
🇲🇽 Mexico50%29%
🇳🇱 Netherlands44%31%
🇵🇪 Peru56%30%
🇵🇱 Poland66%19%
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia51%29%
🇿🇦 South Africa63%23%
🇰🇷 South Korea52%37%
🇪🇸 Spain49%31%
🇸🇪 Sweden50%33%
🇹🇷 Turkey47%38%
🇺🇸 United States47%31%
🌎 Global Average50%31%

In 24 of the 27 countries sampled, citizens thought it was more likely than not that global stock markets would crash in 2023. This includes the entire G7, with 40–47% of each member’s citizens responding “likely” compared to 26–35% responding “unlikely.”

The most pessimistic responses came from Malaysia, Poland, and South Africa, where more than 60% of respondents thought it was likely that markets would crash in 2023. Malaysian citizens led the way with 71% viewing a 2023 crash as likely.

The only three countries where citizens believed a 2023 stock market crash was less likely were China, Israel, and Hungary. China had the highest “unlikely” response rate at 50%, while in Hungary, just 33% of respondents responded “likely” compared to 47% responding unlikely.

Changing Stock Market Sentiments

When comparing 2023 responses to those from 2019, we can see that the last five years have brought uncertainty and pessimism to most countries:

Change in Market Crash Predictions% Likely Change (2019-2023)% Unlikely Change (2019-2023)
🇦🇷 Argentina+20 pp-18 pp
🇦🇺 Australia+15 pp-15 pp
🇧🇪 Belgium+09 pp-12 pp
🇧🇷 Brazil+11 pp-11 pp
🇨🇦 Canada+12 pp-13 pp
🇨🇱 Chile+32 pp-23 pp
🇨🇳 China+12 pp-09 pp
🇫🇷 France+06 pp-05 pp
🇩🇪 Germany+10 pp-07 pp
🇬🇧 Great Britain (United Kingdom)0 pp-02 pp
🇭🇺 Hungary+09 pp-08 pp
🇮🇳 India+26 pp-24 pp
🇮🇱 Israel+03 pp0 pp
🇮🇹 Italy+11 pp-08 pp
🇯🇵 Japan-04 pp-06 pp
🇲🇾 Malaysia+07 pp-09 pp
🇲🇽 Mexico+20 pp-21 pp
🇳🇱 Netherlands+03 pp-09 pp
🇵🇪 Peru+30 pp-23 pp
🇵🇱 Poland+21 pp-18 pp
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia+03 pp-11 pp
🇿🇦 South Africa+28 pp-26 pp
🇰🇷 South Korea+26 pp-26 pp
🇪🇸 Spain+18 pp-05 pp
🇸🇪 Sweden+04 pp-02 pp
🇹🇷 Turkey+05 pp-06 pp
🇺🇸 United States+09 pp-15 pp
🌎 Global Average+13 pp-13 pp

Responses of global stock markets likely crashing rose in 25 of the 27 countries, with 8 countries increasing by more than 20 percentage points (pp). Notably, neighbors Chile and Peru had the highest increases at 32 pp and 30 pp respectively.

But neighboring sentiments didn’t track worldwide. For example, while South Korea had one of the biggest increases in “likely” responses towards stock markets crashing at 26 pp, Japan was the only country that responded in a lower likelihood by 4 pp.

While global sentiment is becoming increasingly pessimistic, we can also see that previous year’s predictions didn’t always pan out. So the question remains, what will 2023 really bring?

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This article was published as a part of Visual Capitalist's Creator Program, which features data-driven visuals from some of our favorite Creators around the world.

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Markets

The World’s Biggest Fashion Companies by Market Cap

LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton (LVMH) is the industry’s biggest player by a wide margin.

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Bubble chart showing the world’s biggest fashion companies by market cap.

The World’s Biggest Fashion Companies by Market Cap

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Fashion is one of the largest industries globally, accounting for 2% of the global gross domestic product (GDP).

In this graphic, we use data from CompaniesMarketCap to showcase the world’s 12 largest publicly traded fashion companies, ranked by market capitalization as of Jan. 31, 2024.

LVMH Reigns Supreme

European countries dominate the list of the biggest fashion companies, with six in total. The U.S. boasts four companies, while Japan and Canada each have one.

LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton (LVMH) is the industry’s biggest player by a wide margin. The company boasts an extensive portfolio of luxury brands spanning fashion, cosmetics, and liquor, including Marc Jacobs, Givenchy, Fendi, and Dior, the latter of which holds a 41% ownership stake in the global luxury goods company.

RankCountryNameMarket Cap (USD)
1🇫🇷 FranceLVMH421,600,000,000
2🇺🇸 United StatesNike153,830,000,000
3🇫🇷 FranceDior145,861,000,000
4🇪🇸 SpainInditex134,042,000,000
5🇺🇸 United StatesTJX Companies108,167,000,000
6🇯🇵 JapanFast Retailing81,489,917,976
7🇺🇸 United StatesCintas61,285,867,520
8🇨🇦 Canadalululemon57,267,998,720
9🇫🇷 FranceKering50,900,207,000
10🇺🇸 United StatesRoss Stores47,227,502,592
11🇩🇪 GermanyAdidas32,535,078,209
12🇸🇪 SwedenH&M25,564,163,571

As a result of the success of the company, in 2024, LVMH chairman Bernard Arnault overtook Elon Musk as the richest person in the world.

In second place, Nike generated 68% of its revenue in 2023 from footwear. One of the company’s most popular brands, the Jordan Brand, generates around $5 billion in revenue per year.

The list also includes less-known names like Inditex, a corporate entity that owns Zara, as well as several other brands, and Fast Retailing, a Japanese holding company that owns Uniqlo, Theory, and Helmut Lang.

According to McKinsey & Company, the fashion industry is expected to experience modest growth of 2% to 4% in 2024, compared to 5% to 7% in 2023, attributed to subdued economic growth and weakened consumer confidence. The luxury segment is projected to contribute the largest share of economic profit.

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