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Survey Results: Will Global Stock Markets Crash in 2023?

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how likely is it that global stock markets will crash, according to country predictions

Survey Results: Will Global Stock Markets Crash in 2023?

For the upcoming year, expert predictions have ranged from extreme optimism to not-so-subtle nervousness, especially when it comes to gauging the health of the global economy.

This chart from Gilbert Fontana skips past expert predictions, and looks directly at those of citizens in multiple countries around the world.

Using data from the Ipsos Global Advisor Predictions surveys from 2019โ€’2023, the chart plots the percentage of average citizens that think global stock markets will crash in the upcoming year.

Methodology

The annual reports used to generate the charts draw from a 36-country survey of more than 24,000 adults. Each country shown had at least 500 individuals sampled, with countries in the G7 and other major economies including China, Brazil, and South Korea having approximately 1,000 individuals sampled.

Specifically, respondents were asked a question on whether “major stock markets around the world will crash” in the following year, and were asked to respond either “likely” or “unlikely”.

Responses were collected at the end of the previous year in question. For example, for 2023, survey data was collected in October and November 2022. Responses of uncertainty or non-answers weren’t included in the chart above.

And across the board, each country’s data was also weighted to accurately reflect its demographic profile according to recent census data.

Stock Markets Crash Predictions By Country

When looking forward to 2023, most of the respondents from around the world felt that the likelihood of global stock markets crashing was more likely than unlikely.

Market Crash Predictions by CountryLikely (2023)Unlikely (2023)
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina48%28%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia57%25%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium49%27%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil44%40%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada45%32%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Chile59%29%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China40%50%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France42%35%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany43%30%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Great Britain (United Kingdom)47%30%
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ Hungary33%47%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ India59%27%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Israel35%42%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy42%35%
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan40%26%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡พ Malaysia71%15%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico50%29%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands44%31%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ช Peru56%30%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ Poland66%19%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Saudi Arabia51%29%
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ South Africa63%23%
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea52%37%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain49%31%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Sweden50%33%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Turkey47%38%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States47%31%
๐ŸŒŽ Global Average50%31%

In 24 of the 27 countries sampled, citizens thought it was more likely than not that global stock markets would crash in 2023. This includes the entire G7, with 40โ€“47% of each member’s citizens responding “likely” compared to 26โ€“35% responding “unlikely.”

The most pessimistic responses came from Malaysia, Poland, and South Africa, where more than 60% of respondents thought it was likely that markets would crash in 2023. Malaysian citizens led the way with 71% viewing a 2023 crash as likely.

The only three countries where citizens believed a 2023 stock market crash was less likely were China, Israel, and Hungary. China had the highest “unlikely” response rate at 50%, while in Hungary, just 33% of respondents responded “likely” compared to 47% responding unlikely.

Changing Stock Market Sentiments

When comparing 2023 responses to those from 2019, we can see that the last five years have brought uncertainty and pessimism to most countries:

Change in Market Crash Predictions% Likely Change (2019-2023)% Unlikely Change (2019-2023)
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina+20 pp-18 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia+15 pp-15 pp
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium+09 pp-12 pp
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil+11 pp-11 pp
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada+12 pp-13 pp
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Chile+32 pp-23 pp
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China+12 pp-09 pp
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France+06 pp-05 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany+10 pp-07 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Great Britain (United Kingdom)0 pp-02 pp
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ Hungary+09 pp-08 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ India+26 pp-24 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Israel+03 pp0 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy+11 pp-08 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan-04 pp-06 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡พ Malaysia+07 pp-09 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico+20 pp-21 pp
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands+03 pp-09 pp
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ช Peru+30 pp-23 pp
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ Poland+21 pp-18 pp
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Saudi Arabia+03 pp-11 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ South Africa+28 pp-26 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea+26 pp-26 pp
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain+18 pp-05 pp
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Sweden+04 pp-02 pp
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Turkey+05 pp-06 pp
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States+09 pp-15 pp
๐ŸŒŽ Global Average+13 pp-13 pp

Responses of global stock markets likely crashing rose in 25 of the 27 countries, with 8 countries increasing by more than 20 percentage points (pp). Notably, neighbors Chile and Peru had the highest increases at 32 pp and 30 pp respectively.

But neighboring sentiments didn’t track worldwide. For example, while South Korea had one of the biggest increases in “likely” responses towards stock markets crashing at 26 pp, Japan was the only country that responded in a lower likelihood by 4 pp.

While global sentiment is becoming increasingly pessimistic, we can also see that previous year’s predictions didn’t always pan out. So the question remains, what will 2023 really bring?

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This article was published as a part of Visual Capitalist's Creator Program, which features data-driven visuals from some of our favorite Creators around the world.

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Which Retailers Operate in the Most Countries?

From fast-fashion giant H&M to Apple, we show the top retailers globally with the largest international presence.

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This treemap shows the top retailers operating in the most countries in 2023.

The Top Retailers Operating in the Most Countries

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Today, international expansion is a key growth strategy for the worldโ€™s top retailers as companies target untapped markets with the highest potential to drive revenue and profit streams.

While traditional retailers have sought out digital strategies as the industry evolves and consumer behaviors change, physical storefronts continue to be a dominant driver of retail sales. In 2023, brick-and-mortar sales comprised 81% of retail sales globally.

This graphic shows the top retailers operating in the most markets worldwide, based on data from the National Retail Federation.

Global Retailers With the Largest International Footprint

Here are the global retailers with the widest-reaching presence around the world in 2023:

RankingRetailerNumber of Countries of First-Party OperationHeadquarters
1H&M68๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Sweden
2IKEA51๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands
3Inditex45๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain
4Decathlon34๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France
5Carrefour32๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France
6Sephora (LVMH)31๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France
7Schwarz Group30๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany
8Fast Retailing27๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan
9Euronics International25๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands
10Apple25๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ U.S.

Notably, eight of the top 10 companies with the widest market reach hail from Europe.

Fast-fashion giant H&M ranks first overall, with 4,454 stores across 68 countries last year. In 2023, the Swedish company earned $21.6 billion in revenues, with its largest markets by number of store locations being the U.S., Germany, and the UK. This year, it plans to open 100 new stores in growth markets, along with shutting down 160 stores in established locations, ultimately decreasing its global store count.

In second is IKEA, with a presence in 51 countries. Last year, the company expanded its footprint in India, launching its first store in the tech hub, Hyderabad. While the company has a broad international reach, its number of storefronts is a fraction of H&M, at 477 total stores worldwide.

Looking beyond the continent, Japanโ€™s Fast Retailing is the top retailer in Asia, operating in 27 countries globally. As the parent company to fashion brand Uniqlo, it also stands as the seventh most valuable listed firm by market capitalization in the country.

Additionally, Apple is the sole American company to make this list, with storefronts in 25 countries. Overall, the company operates four types of retail stores: regular, AppleStore+, flagships, and flagship+. Regular stores often earn $40 million annually, while flagship+ stores typically earn more than $100 million.

By 2027, the company plans to build or remodel 53 stores globally, with the majority located in the U.S. and China.

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