Connect with us

Economy

Survey Results: Will Global Stock Markets Crash in 2023?

Published

on

how likely is it that global stock markets will crash, according to country predictions

Survey Results: Will Global Stock Markets Crash in 2023?

For the upcoming year, expert predictions have ranged from extreme optimism to not-so-subtle nervousness, especially when it comes to gauging the health of the global economy.

This chart from Gilbert Fontana skips past expert predictions, and looks directly at those of citizens in multiple countries around the world.

Using data from the Ipsos Global Advisor Predictions surveys from 2019โ€’2023, the chart plots the percentage of average citizens that think global stock markets will crash in the upcoming year.

Methodology

The annual reports used to generate the charts draw from a 36-country survey of more than 24,000 adults. Each country shown had at least 500 individuals sampled, with countries in the G7 and other major economies including China, Brazil, and South Korea having approximately 1,000 individuals sampled.

Specifically, respondents were asked a question on whether “major stock markets around the world will crash” in the following year, and were asked to respond either “likely” or “unlikely”.

Responses were collected at the end of the previous year in question. For example, for 2023, survey data was collected in October and November 2022. Responses of uncertainty or non-answers weren’t included in the chart above.

And across the board, each country’s data was also weighted to accurately reflect its demographic profile according to recent census data.

Stock Markets Crash Predictions By Country

When looking forward to 2023, most of the respondents from around the world felt that the likelihood of global stock markets crashing was more likely than unlikely.

Market Crash Predictions by CountryLikely (2023)Unlikely (2023)
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina48%28%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia57%25%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium49%27%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil44%40%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada45%32%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Chile59%29%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China40%50%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France42%35%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany43%30%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Great Britain (United Kingdom)47%30%
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ Hungary33%47%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ India59%27%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Israel35%42%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy42%35%
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan40%26%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡พ Malaysia71%15%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico50%29%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands44%31%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ช Peru56%30%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ Poland66%19%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Saudi Arabia51%29%
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ South Africa63%23%
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea52%37%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain49%31%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Sweden50%33%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Turkey47%38%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States47%31%
๐ŸŒŽ Global Average50%31%

In 24 of the 27 countries sampled, citizens thought it was more likely than not that global stock markets would crash in 2023. This includes the entire G7, with 40โ€“47% of each member’s citizens responding “likely” compared to 26โ€“35% responding “unlikely.”

The most pessimistic responses came from Malaysia, Poland, and South Africa, where more than 60% of respondents thought it was likely that markets would crash in 2023. Malaysian citizens led the way with 71% viewing a 2023 crash as likely.

The only three countries where citizens believed a 2023 stock market crash was less likely were China, Israel, and Hungary. China had the highest “unlikely” response rate at 50%, while in Hungary, just 33% of respondents responded “likely” compared to 47% responding unlikely.

Changing Stock Market Sentiments

When comparing 2023 responses to those from 2019, we can see that the last five years have brought uncertainty and pessimism to most countries:

Change in Market Crash Predictions% Likely Change (2019-2023)% Unlikely Change (2019-2023)
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina+20 pp-18 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia+15 pp-15 pp
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium+09 pp-12 pp
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil+11 pp-11 pp
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada+12 pp-13 pp
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Chile+32 pp-23 pp
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China+12 pp-09 pp
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France+06 pp-05 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany+10 pp-07 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Great Britain (United Kingdom)0 pp-02 pp
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ Hungary+09 pp-08 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ India+26 pp-24 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Israel+03 pp0 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy+11 pp-08 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan-04 pp-06 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡พ Malaysia+07 pp-09 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico+20 pp-21 pp
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands+03 pp-09 pp
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ช Peru+30 pp-23 pp
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ Poland+21 pp-18 pp
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Saudi Arabia+03 pp-11 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ South Africa+28 pp-26 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea+26 pp-26 pp
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain+18 pp-05 pp
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Sweden+04 pp-02 pp
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Turkey+05 pp-06 pp
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States+09 pp-15 pp
๐ŸŒŽ Global Average+13 pp-13 pp

Responses of global stock markets likely crashing rose in 25 of the 27 countries, with 8 countries increasing by more than 20 percentage points (pp). Notably, neighbors Chile and Peru had the highest increases at 32 pp and 30 pp respectively.

But neighboring sentiments didn’t track worldwide. For example, while South Korea had one of the biggest increases in “likely” responses towards stock markets crashing at 26 pp, Japan was the only country that responded in a lower likelihood by 4 pp.

While global sentiment is becoming increasingly pessimistic, we can also see that previous year’s predictions didn’t always pan out. So the question remains, what will 2023 really bring?

green check mark icon

This article was published as a part of Visual Capitalist's Creator Program, which features data-driven visuals from some of our favorite Creators around the world.

Subscribe to Visual Capitalist
Click for Comments

Business

Ranked: The 20 Best Franchises to Open in the U.S.

Considering factors like the cost of investment and number of locations, this graphic breaks down the best franchises in the U.S.

Published

on

best franchises in the U.S.

Ranked: The 20 Best Franchises in the U.S.

The U.S. is famous for chain restaurants, franchised shops, and brand name hotels. One thing these franchises aim for is consistency in store feel, customer service, product offerings, and prices, no matter which state youโ€™re in.

This visualization uses Entrepreneurโ€™s annual Franchise 500 Ranking to showcase the best franchises in the U.S. worth owning, from Dunkinโ€™ Donuts to Snap-on Tools.

The Best and How They Were Selected

The report assessed five broad categories to score the countryโ€™s famous chains:

  • Costs & fees: including franchise fee, total investment needed to open one store, and royalty fees
  • Support: including training times, marketing support, operational support, franchisor infrastructure, financing infrastructure, and litigation
  • Size & growth: including open & operating units, growth rate, and closures
  • Brand strength: including social media, system size, years in business, years franchising
  • Financial strength & stability: including franchisorโ€™s audited financial statements

A franchise was only considered if it was actively seeking new franchisees and must have already had at least 10 units operating.

Hereโ€™s a closer look at the top 20:

RankFranchiseInitial Investment NeededGlobal Units 2022
#1Taco Bell$576K - $3.4M7,900
#2Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen$384K - $3.5M3,851
#3Jersey Mike's Subs$194K - $955K2,402
#4The UPS Store$122K - $508K5,464
#5Dunkin'$438K - $1.8M12,957
#6Kumon$67K - $146K26,527
#7Ace Hardware$292K - $2.1M5,746
#8Culver's$2.3M - $5.8M871
#9Hampton by Hilton$12.3M - $22.8M2,824
#10Wingstop$315K - $948K1,873
#11Tropical Smoothie Cafe$277K - $584K1,142
#12Arby's$629K - $2.3M3,561
#13KFC$1.4M - $3.2M26,498
#14McDonald's$1.4M - $2.5M39,696
#15Wendy's$330K - $3.7M7,049
#16Servpro$217K - $271K2,050
#17Smoothie King$264K - $1.2M1,373
#187-Eleven$125K - $1.3M81,887
#19Budget Blinds$141K - $212K1,378
#20Snap-on Tools$201K - $465K4,771

The number one franchise, Taco Bell, has been in business since 1964 and has 7,900 locations as of 2022, spanning beyond the U.S. to Canada, Australia, Europe, and other regions of the world. The average cost of investment to be a franchisee is between $576,000 to $3.4 million.

While most of the top 20 are in the food service industry, there is also one hotel, one shipping company, and a few hardware and home goods stores that make the list.

Ace Hardware (#7), for example, which specializes in home improvement goods, is actually an international franchise with close to 6,000 units. Kumon (#6) is an education center and is the only non-U.S. franchise on the list.

The Feasibility of Being a Franchisee

To get a better sense of the costs needed to start a franchise, letโ€™s take a look at one of the most famous convenience stores in the world. Hereโ€™s a sample of the different fees involved in 7-Elevenโ€™s initial franchisee process:

Initial Franchise Fee$0 - $1,000,000
Initial Investment$125,250 - $1,333,500
Cash Requirement$50,000 - $250,000
Veteran Incentives10-20% off franchise fee, up to $50,000; preferred interest rates and special financing
Royalty FeeVaries
Ad Royalty Fee1%
Term of Agreement15 years
Is franchise term renewable?Yes

In terms of low-cost franchises, 7-Eleven is among one of the cheapest to open, according to Entrepreneur, sometimes costing less than $150K. Other franchises with lower cost barriers of entry include UPS ($122K – $508K) and Cinnabon ($112K – $547K).

There is more to consider than cost, of course, and some franchises provide better support than others in aspects such as financing, industry training, or legal support. Popeyeโ€™s, for instance, provides in-house financing for their franchise fee, as well as connections with third-party sources to help cover equipment, inventory, payroll, and other expenses.

Looking at feasibility in regards to opportunities, some of the fastest-growing franchises include chains like Jersey Mikeโ€™s Subs and Wingstop. Hereโ€™s a closer look at the Franchise 500โ€™s fastest growing list:

  • #1 Stratus Building Solutions
  • #2 Jersey Mike’s Subs
  • #3 Goosehead Insurance
  • #4 Signal
  • #5 Wingstop

In total there are almost 800,000 franchises in the U.S. The franchise market in the country has an economic output of over $825 billion and employs over 8.4 million people. With many of these franchises continuing to grow and seek new franchisees, there is ample opportunity in the market.

Continue Reading

Subscribe

Popular