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Survey Results: Will Global Stock Markets Crash in 2023?

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how likely is it that global stock markets will crash, according to country predictions

Survey Results: Will Global Stock Markets Crash in 2023?

For the upcoming year, expert predictions have ranged from extreme optimism to not-so-subtle nervousness, especially when it comes to gauging the health of the global economy.

This chart from Gilbert Fontana skips past expert predictions, and looks directly at those of citizens in multiple countries around the world.

Using data from the Ipsos Global Advisor Predictions surveys from 2019โ€’2023, the chart plots the percentage of average citizens that think global stock markets will crash in the upcoming year.

Methodology

The annual reports used to generate the charts draw from a 36-country survey of more than 24,000 adults. Each country shown had at least 500 individuals sampled, with countries in the G7 and other major economies including China, Brazil, and South Korea having approximately 1,000 individuals sampled.

Specifically, respondents were asked a question on whether “major stock markets around the world will crash” in the following year, and were asked to respond either “likely” or “unlikely”.

Responses were collected at the end of the previous year in question. For example, for 2023, survey data was collected in October and November 2022. Responses of uncertainty or non-answers weren’t included in the chart above.

And across the board, each country’s data was also weighted to accurately reflect its demographic profile according to recent census data.

Stock Markets Crash Predictions By Country

When looking forward to 2023, most of the respondents from around the world felt that the likelihood of global stock markets crashing was more likely than unlikely.

Market Crash Predictions by CountryLikely (2023)Unlikely (2023)
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina48%28%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia57%25%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium49%27%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil44%40%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada45%32%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Chile59%29%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China40%50%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France42%35%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany43%30%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Great Britain (United Kingdom)47%30%
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ Hungary33%47%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ India59%27%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Israel35%42%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy42%35%
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan40%26%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡พ Malaysia71%15%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico50%29%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands44%31%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ช Peru56%30%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ Poland66%19%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Saudi Arabia51%29%
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ South Africa63%23%
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea52%37%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain49%31%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Sweden50%33%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Turkey47%38%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States47%31%
๐ŸŒŽ Global Average50%31%

In 24 of the 27 countries sampled, citizens thought it was more likely than not that global stock markets would crash in 2023. This includes the entire G7, with 40โ€“47% of each member’s citizens responding “likely” compared to 26โ€“35% responding “unlikely.”

The most pessimistic responses came from Malaysia, Poland, and South Africa, where more than 60% of respondents thought it was likely that markets would crash in 2023. Malaysian citizens led the way with 71% viewing a 2023 crash as likely.

The only three countries where citizens believed a 2023 stock market crash was less likely were China, Israel, and Hungary. China had the highest “unlikely” response rate at 50%, while in Hungary, just 33% of respondents responded “likely” compared to 47% responding unlikely.

Changing Stock Market Sentiments

When comparing 2023 responses to those from 2019, we can see that the last five years have brought uncertainty and pessimism to most countries:

Change in Market Crash Predictions% Likely Change (2019-2023)% Unlikely Change (2019-2023)
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina+20 pp-18 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia+15 pp-15 pp
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium+09 pp-12 pp
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil+11 pp-11 pp
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada+12 pp-13 pp
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Chile+32 pp-23 pp
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China+12 pp-09 pp
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France+06 pp-05 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany+10 pp-07 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Great Britain (United Kingdom)0 pp-02 pp
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ Hungary+09 pp-08 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ India+26 pp-24 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Israel+03 pp0 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy+11 pp-08 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan-04 pp-06 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡พ Malaysia+07 pp-09 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico+20 pp-21 pp
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands+03 pp-09 pp
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ช Peru+30 pp-23 pp
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ Poland+21 pp-18 pp
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Saudi Arabia+03 pp-11 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ South Africa+28 pp-26 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea+26 pp-26 pp
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain+18 pp-05 pp
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Sweden+04 pp-02 pp
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Turkey+05 pp-06 pp
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States+09 pp-15 pp
๐ŸŒŽ Global Average+13 pp-13 pp

Responses of global stock markets likely crashing rose in 25 of the 27 countries, with 8 countries increasing by more than 20 percentage points (pp). Notably, neighbors Chile and Peru had the highest increases at 32 pp and 30 pp respectively.

But neighboring sentiments didn’t track worldwide. For example, while South Korea had one of the biggest increases in “likely” responses towards stock markets crashing at 26 pp, Japan was the only country that responded in a lower likelihood by 4 pp.

While global sentiment is becoming increasingly pessimistic, we can also see that previous year’s predictions didn’t always pan out. So the question remains, what will 2023 really bring?

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This article was published as a part of Visual Capitalist's Creator Program, which features data-driven visuals from some of our favorite Creators around the world.

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Maps

Mapped: Renewable Energy and Battery Installations in the U.S. in 2023

This graphic describes new U.S. renewable energy installations by state along with nameplate capacity, planned to come online in 2023.

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Renewable and Battery Installations in the U.S. in 2023

This was originally posted on Elements. Sign up to the free mailing list to get beautiful visualizations on real assets and resource megatrends each week.

Renewable energy, in particular solar power, is set to shine in 2023. This year, the U.S. plans to get over 80% of its new energy installations from sources like battery, solar, and wind.

The above map uses data from EIA to highlight planned U.S. renewable energy and battery storage installations by state for 2023.

Total U.S. renewable energy and battery installations, broken down by share

Texas and California Leading in Renewable Energy

Nearly every state in the U.S. has plans to produce new clean energy in 2023, but it’s not a surprise to see the two most populous states in the lead of the pack.

Even though the majority of its power comes from natural gas, Texas currently leads the U.S. in planned renewable energy installations. The state also has plans to power nearly 900,000 homes using new wind energy.

California is second, which could be partially attributable to the passing of Title 24, an energy code that makes it compulsory for new buildings to have the equipment necessary to allow the easy installation of solar panels, battery storage, and EV charging.

New solar power in the U.S. isnโ€™t just coming from places like Texas and California. In 2023, Ohio will add 1,917 MW of new nameplate solar capacity, with Nevada and Colorado not far behind.

Top 10 StatesBattery (MW)Solar (MW)Wind (MW)Total (MW)
Texas1,9816,4621,94110,385
California4,5554,2931238,970
Nevada6781,59602,274
Ohio121,91751,934
Colorado2301,1872001,617
New York585095591,125
Wisconsin4939921,034
Florida39780980
Kansas00843843
Illinois0363477840

The state of New York is also looking to become one of the nation’s leading renewable energy providers. The New York State Energy Research & Development Authority (NYSERDA) is making real strides towards this objective with 11% of the nation’s new wind power projects expected to come online in 2023.

According to the data, New Hampshire is the only state in the U.S. that has no new utility-scale renewable energy installations planned for 2023. However, the state does have plans for a massive hydroelectric plant that should come online in 2024.

Decarbonizing Energy

Renewable energy is considered essential to reduce global warming and CO2 emissions.

In line with the efforts by each state to build new renewable installations, the Biden administration has set a goal of achieving a carbon pollution-free power sector by 2035 and a net zero emissions economy by no later than 2050.

The EIA forecasts the share of U.S. electricity generation from renewable sources rising from 22% in 2022 to 23% in 2023 and to 26% in 2024.

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