Economy
When Will Your Country Recover from the Pandemic?
What started as a novel virus in China quickly became a sweeping disease that shut down the world and put a 1.5 year halt on the global economy.
But while some countries’ economies are already back to normal, others are lagging far behind.
COVID-19 Recovery Timelines, by OECD Country
This chart using data from the OECD anticipates when countries will economically recover from the global pandemic, based on getting back to pre-pandemic levels of GDP per capita.
Note: The categorization of ‘advanced’ or ‘emerging’ economy was determined by OECD standards.
The Leaders of the Pack
At the top, China and the U.S. are recovering at breakneck speed. In fact, recovering is the wrong word for China, as they reached pre-pandemic GDP per capita levels just after Q2’2020.
On the other end, some countries are looking at years—not months—when it comes to their recovery date. Saudi Arabia isn’t expected to recover until after Q1’2024, and Argentina is estimated to have an even slower recovery, occurring only after Q2’2026.
Country | Recovery | Economy |
---|---|---|
🇧🇪 Belgium | After Q4 2022 | Advanced |
🇸🇪 Sweden | After Q4 2021 | Advanced |
🇸🇰 Slovakia | After Q4 2021 | Advanced |
🇳🇿 New Zealand | After Q4 2021 | Advanced |
🇩🇪 Germany | After Q4 2021 | Advanced |
🇪🇪 Estonia | After Q4 2021 | Advanced |
🇩🇰 Denmark | After Q4 2021 | Advanced |
🇮🇸 Iceland | After Q3 2023 | Advanced |
🇸🇮 Slovenia | After Q3 2022 | Advanced |
🇵🇹 Portugal | After Q3 2022 | Advanced |
🇫🇷 France | After Q3 2022 | Advanced |
🇦🇹 Austria | After Q3 2022 | Advanced |
🇵🇱 Poland | After Q3 2021 | Advanced |
🇳🇴 Norway | After Q3 2021 | Advanced |
🇱🇺 Luxembourg | After Q3 2021 | Advanced |
🇱🇻 Latvia | After Q3 2021 | Advanced |
🇯🇵 Japan | After Q3 2021 | Advanced |
🇫🇮 Finland | After Q3 2021 | Advanced |
🇪🇸 Spain | After Q2 2023 | Advanced |
🇬🇧 United Kingdom | After Q2 2022 | Advanced |
🇳🇱 Netherlands | After Q2 2022 | Advanced |
🇮🇹 Italy | After Q2 2022 | Advanced |
🇬🇷 Greece | After Q2 2022 | Advanced |
🇨🇿 Czech Republic | After Q2 2022 | Advanced |
🇨🇦 Canada | After Q2 2022 | Advanced |
🇺🇸 United States | After Q2 2021 | Advanced |
🇰🇷 South Korea | After Q2 2021 | Advanced |
🇮🇪 Ireland | After Q2 2021 | Advanced |
🇨🇭 Switzerland | After Q1 2022 | Advanced |
🇮🇱 Israel | After Q1 2022 | Advanced |
🇭🇺 Hungary | After Q1 2022 | Advanced |
🇦🇺 Australia | After Q1 2022 | Advanced |
🇱🇹 Lithuania | After Q1 2021 | Advanced |
🇿🇦 South Africa | After Q4 2022 | Emerging |
🇮🇩 Indonesia | After Q4 2021 | Emerging |
🇮🇳 India | After Q4 2021 | Emerging |
🇲🇽 Mexico | After Q3 2023 | Emerging |
🇨🇴 Colombia | After Q3 2022 | Emerging |
🇧🇷 Brazil | After Q3 2022 | Emerging |
🇨🇱 Chile | After Q3 2021 | Emerging |
🇹🇷 Turkey | After Q3 2020 | Emerging |
🇦🇷 Argentina | After Q2 2026 | Emerging |
🇨🇷 Costa Rica | After Q2 2023 | Emerging |
🇷🇺 Russia | After Q2 2021 | Emerging |
🇨🇳 China | After Q2 2020 | Emerging |
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | After Q1 2024 | Emerging |
Most countries will hit pre-pandemic levels of GDP per capita by the end of 2022. The slowest recovering advanced economies—Iceland and Spain—aren’t expected to bounce back until 2023.
Four emerging economies are speeding ahead, and are predicted to get back on their feet by the end of this year or slightly later (if they haven’t already):
- 🇷🇺 Russia: after Q2’2021
- 🇨🇱 Chile: after Q3’2021
- 🇮🇳 India: after Q4’2021
- 🇮🇩 Indonesia: after Q4’2021
However, no recovery is guaranteed, and many countries will continue face setbacks as waves of COVID-19 variants hit—India, for example, was battling its biggest wave as recently as May 2021.
Trailing Behind
Why are some countries recovering faster than others? One factor seems to be vaccination rates.
Country | Doses Administered per 100 People | Total Doses Administered | Percent of Population Fully Vaccinated |
---|---|---|---|
World | 47 | 3,573,004,544 | – |
🇦🇪 U.A.E. | 166 | 16,194,526 | 69% |
🇲🇹 Malta | 143 | 718,418 | 71% |
🇧🇭 Bahrain | 136 | 2,224,916 | 63% |
🇮🇸 Iceland | 129 | 466,434 | 70% |
🇺🇾 Uruguay | 129 | 4,458,394 | 58% |
🇨🇱 Chile | 128 | 24,248,545 | 60% |
🇦🇼 Aruba | 125 | 133,421 | 59% |
🇶🇦 Qatar | 123 | 3,474,944 | 56% |
🇬🇧 United Kingdom | 122 | 81,438,892 | 53% |
Mongolia | 121 | 3,912,996 | 56% |
Israel | 121 | 10,959,633 | 58% |
Canada | 118 | 44,293,659 | 48% |
Singapore | 113 | 6,440,735 | 42% |
Belgium | 111 | 12,700,513 | 46% |
Curaçao | 108 | 170,857 | 51% |
Denmark | 108 | 6,266,892 | 43% |
Maldives | 106 | 561,748 | 46% |
Netherlands | 105 | 18,273,238 | 43% |
Spain | 105 | 49,585,197 | 49% |
Hungary | 104 | 10,155,466 | 54% |
Portugal | 103 | 10,579,259 | 44% |
Luxembourg | 102 | 633,974 | 41% |
Germany | 102 | 84,989,850 | 45% |
China | 102 | 1,426,347,000 | – |
United States | 101 | 336,054,953 | 48% |
Ireland | 101 | 4,995,719 | 44% |
Austria | 100 | 8,866,474 | 44% |
Italy | 99 | 59,966,908 | 41% |
Switzerland | 95 | 8,133,486 | 42% |
France | 93 | 62,321,355 | 40% |
Sweden | 93 | 9,536,164 | 36% |
Finland | 90 | 4,951,925 | 26% |
Norway | 89 | 4,785,937 | 31% |
Greece | 89 | 9,560,592 | 42% |
Lithuania | 88 | 2,459,605 | 42% |
Czech Republic | 88 | 9,346,397 | 38% |
Poland | 85 | 32,413,199 | 42% |
Dominican Rep. | 84 | 9,066,151 | 34% |
Estonia | 79 | 1,049,416 | 34% |
Serbia | 78 | 5,415,434 | 38% |
Slovenia | 78 | 1,626,072 | 36% |
Cyprus | 76 | 916,819 | 35% |
Turkey | 74 | 61,747,399 | 23% |
Slovakia | 73 | 4,003,639 | 33% |
Mauritius | 71 | 901,530 | 24% |
Croatia | 71 | 2,870,866 | 32% |
Macau | 69 | 434,726 | 27% |
Cuba | 69 | 7,767,601 | 17% |
Latvia | 66 | 1,264,433 | 33% |
Bhutan | 64 | 487,060 | 0.02% |
Saudi Arabia | 63 | 21,556,314 | 9.2% |
Hong Kong | 62 | 4,638,908 | 26% |
Barbados | 59 | 168,955 | 25% |
Argentina | 58 | 26,134,815 | 11% |
Brazil | 57 | 120,726,752 | 16% |
Kuwait | 56 | 2,375,455 | 22% |
Morocco | 56 | 20,584,812 | 26% |
Cambodia | 56 | 9242925 | 24% |
El Salvador | 53 | 3,422,214 | 20% |
Japan | 53 | 66,714,528 | 20% |
Costa Rica | 52 | 2,606,791 | 16% |
French Polynesia | 51 | 141,523 | 24% |
Montenegro | 49 | 304,655 | 23% |
Fiji | 47 | 419,998 | 8% |
Romania | 47 | 9,092,141 | 24% |
Guyana | 46 | 363,442 | 16% |
Colombia | 45 | 22,624,568 | 19% |
Jordan | 45 | 4,498,748 | 18% |
Azerbaijan | 42 | 4,242,727 | 17% |
Panama | 42 | 1,781,542 | 15% |
Mexico | 41 | 52,704,960 | 17% |
Malaysia | 41 | 13,107,681 | 13% |
South Korea | 41 | 21,157,612 | 12% |
New Caledonia | 40 | 115,218 | 19% |
Ecuador | 40 | 6,890,876 | 10% |
Kazakhstan | 39 | 7,303,180 | 14% |
Suriname | 38 | 222,377 | 8% |
Australia | 38 | 9,631,807 | 10% |
Belize | 38 | 147,080 | 10% |
Albania | 37 | 1,052,108 | 16% |
Russia | 35 | 50,383,638 | 14% |
Oman | 35 | 1,728,618 | 6% |
North Macedonia | 34 | 713,114 | 13% |
Samoa | 32 | 62,161 | 4.7% |
Moldova | 31 | 834,527 | 13% |
Grenada | 31 | 35,072 | 13% |
Peru | 31 | 9,954,429 | 12% |
Saint Lucia | 30 | 54,361 | 13% |
Sri Lanka | 29 | 6,431,100 | 7.3% |
India | 29 | 391,340,491 | 6% |
New Zealand | 29 | 1,404,343 | 11% |
Brunei | 28 | 121,241 | 4.3% |
Tonga | 27 | 28,667 | – |
Bulgaria | 27 | 1,896,574 | 12% |
Bolivia | 27 | 3,117,521 | 7% |
Trinidad and Tobago | 27 | 375,924 | 11% |
Bahamas | 25 | 97,992 | 10% |
Lebanon | 25 | 1,693,164 | 9% |
Laos | 24 | 1,708,981 | 9% |
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | 23 | 25,509 | – |
Cape Verde | 23 | 124,958 | 3% |
Timor-Leste | 22 | 281,283 | 3% |
Indonesia | 21 | 55,819,781 | 6% |
Equatorial Guinea | 21 | 279,112 | 9% |
West Bank & Gaza | 20 | 958,519 | 9% |
Thailand | 19 | 13,533,717 | 5% |
Taiwan | 19 | 4,603,639 | 1% |
Tunisia | 19 | 2,206,980 | 6% |
São Tomé and Príncipe | 18 | 37,716 | 5% |
Bosnia and Herzegovina | 14 | 470,218 | 5% |
Venezuela | 14 | 4,000,000 | 4% |
Nepal | 13 | 3,730,344 | 4% |
Philippines | 13 | 14,074,514 | 4% |
Botswana | 12 | 284,676 | 5% |
Honduras | 12 | 1,172,830 | 1% |
Paraguay | 12 | 826,642 | 2% |
Belarus | – | – | – |
Zimbabwe | 11 | 1,575,539 | 4% |
Comoros | 11 | 90,880 | – |
Uzbekistan | 11 | 3,541,442 | 4% |
Pakistan | 10 | 2,166,0650 | 2% |
Jamaica | 9.8 | 290,382 | 4% |
Armenia | 8.8 | 260,813 | 2% |
Ukraine | 8.8 | 3,899,890 | 3% |
Iran | 7.9 | 6,530,124 | 3% |
Georgia | 7.8 | 289,399 | 3% |
South Africa | 7.7 | 4,535,222 | 3% |
Guatemala | 6.9 | 1,146,477 | 1% |
Namibia | 6.7 | 166,616 | 1% |
Myanmar | 6.5* | 3,500,000 | – |
Libya | 6.3 | 425,119 | – |
Bangladesh | 6.2 | 10,108,224 | 3% |
Guinea | 6 | 770,688 | 2% |
Algeria | – | – | – |
Eswatini | 5.2 | 60,069 | 2% |
Rwanda | 5.1 | 646,909 | 2% |
Senegal | 5.1 | 823,610 | 2% |
Angola | 4.9 | 1,558,201 | 2% |
Egypt | 4.8 | 4,851,349 | 1% |
Vanuatu | 4.7 | 14,026 | – |
Vietnam | 4.3 | 4,185,623 | 0.3% |
Togo | – | – | – |
Tajikistan | 4.3 | 397,694 | 0.2% |
Ghana | 4.2 | 1,265,306 | 1% |
Mauritania | 4 | 182,642 | 0.3% |
Solomon Islands | 3.8 | 25,628 | 1% |
Ivory Coast | 3.3 | 861,278 | – |
Gabon | 3.3 | 72,351 | 1% |
Republic of the Congo | 3 | 163,742 | – |
Kenya | 2.9 | 1,550,389 | 1% |
Sierra Leone | 2.9 | 225,380 | 0.2% |
Iraq | 2.8 | 1,087,866 | 1% |
Djibouti | 2.8 | 26,796 | – |
Afghanistan | 2.7 | 1,024,168 | 1% |
Kyrgyzstan | 2.7 | 173,700 | 1.% |
Lesotho | 2.7 | 56,322 | 1% |
Nicaragua | – | – | – |
Uganda | 2.4 | 1,079,943 | – |
Malawi | 2.3 | 428,407 | 0.2% |
Nigeria | 2 | 3,938,945 | 1% |
Liberia | 1.9 | 95,423 | 0.2% |
Ethiopia | 1.9 | 2,090,997 | – |
Gambia | 1.9 | 43,557 | 1% |
Niger | 1.8 | 423,335 | 0.3% |
Mozambique | 1.7 | 508,184 | 1% |
Central African Republic | 1.7 | 78,685 | – |
Somalia | 1.6 | 249,790 | 1% |
Sudan | 1.6 | 677,957 | 0.3% |
Zambia | 1.4 | 243,818 | 0.3% |
Guinea-Bissau | 1.3 | 25,012 | 0.1% |
Yemen | 1 | 297,405 | <0.1% |
Mali | 1 | 196,862 | 0.3% |
Syria | 0.8 | 131,221 | 0.1% |
Madagascar | 0.7 | 197,001 | – |
Turkmenistan | – | – | – |
Cameroon | 0.6 | 163,921 | 0.1% |
Papua New Guinea | 0.6 | 51,170 | <0.1% |
South Sudan | 0.5 | 55,915 | <0.1% |
Benin | 0.4 | 52,563 | 0.1% |
Burkina Faso | 0.2 | 33,960 | <0.1% |
Chad | 0.2 | 24,459 | <0.1% |
Congo | 0.1 | 73,764 | <0.1% |
As of July 16th, 2021.
The higher the rate of vaccination, the harder it is for COVID-19 to spread. This gives countries a chance to loosen restrictions, let people get back to work and regular life, and fuel the economy. Additionally, the quicker vaccines are rolled out, the less time there is for variants to mutate.
Another factor is the overall strength of a country’s healthcare infrastructure. More advanced economies often have more ICU capacity, more efficient dissemination of public health information, and, simply, more hospital staff. These traits help better handle the pandemic, with reduced cases, less restrictions, and a speedy recovery.
Finally, the level of government support and fiscal stimulus injected into different economies has determined how swiftly they’ve recovered. Similar to the disparity in vaccine rollouts, there was a significant fiscal stimulus gap, especially during the heat of the pandemic.
Recovering to Normal?
Many experts and government leaders are now advocating for funneling more money into healthcare infrastructure and disease research preventatively. The increased funding now would help stop worldwide shut downs and needless loss of life in future.
Time will tell when we return to “normal” everywhere, however, normal will likely never be the same. Many impacts of the global pandemic will stay with us over the long term.
Economy
Confidence in the Global Economy, by Country
Will the global economy be stronger in 2024 than in 2023?
Confidence in the Global Economy, by Country
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
Measuring consumer confidence in the economy is crucial for understanding both current economic strength, as well as how consumers may be expected to act in the future.
So how do people around the world feel about the global economy?
This visualization uses survey data collected from October 20 to November 3, 2023 by Ipsos. It was first highlighted as part of our 2024 Global Forecast Series.
Which Countries Feel Confident About the Economy in 2024?
Heading into 2024, an average of 50% of polled adults felt confident that the global economy would be stronger than in 2023. But breaking down responses by country shows a vast disparity between responses.
Here are the percentage of respondents who agreed with the following statement: “The global economy will be stronger in 2024 than it was in 2023.” We also note the change in percentage points (p.p.) compared with the same question a year prior.
Country | Agree | Change (Year-over-year) |
---|---|---|
🇮🇳 India | 85% | +12 p.p. |
🇮🇩 Indonesia | 82% | +14 p.p. |
🇨🇳 China | 82% | +4 p.p. |
🇵🇭 Philippines | 74% | N/A |
🇹🇭 Thailand | 68% | +4 p.p. |
🇲🇾 Malaysia | 62% | +8 p.p. |
🇲🇽 Mexico | 62% | +6 p.p. |
🇧🇷 Brazil | 60% | -13 p.p. |
🇸🇬 Singapore | 59% | +4 p.p. |
🇵🇱 Poland | 56% | +20 p.p. |
🇳🇿 New Zealand | 56% | N/A |
🇨🇴 Colombia | 54% | +5 p.p. |
🇨🇱 Chile | 51% | +8 p.p. |
🇵🇪 Peru | 51% | -3 p.p. |
🇦🇷 Argentina | 51% | +3 p.p. |
🇿🇦 South Africa | 49% | +2 p.p. |
🇦🇺 Australia | 48% | +7 p.p. |
🇭🇺 Hungary | 46% | +15 p.p. |
🇷🇴 Romania | 45% | +8 p.p. |
🇺🇸 United States | 45% | +3 p.p. |
🇪🇸 Spain | 44% | +8 p.p. |
🇳🇱 Netherlands | 44% | +12 p.p. |
🇹🇷 Türkiye | 43% | 0 p.p. |
🇬🇧 Great Britain | 43% | +11 p.p. |
🇨🇭 Switzerland | 43% | +8 p.p. |
🇮🇹 Italy | 40% | +8 p.p. |
🇩🇪 Germany | 40% | +3 p.p. |
🇨🇦 Canada | 39% | +2 p.p. |
🇸🇪 Sweden | 34% | +1 p.p. |
🇫🇷 France | 33% | +4 p.p. |
🇰🇷 South Korea | 33% | -5 p.p. |
🇵🇹 Portugal | 33% | N/A |
🇯🇵 Japan | 30% | 0 p.p. |
🌍 Global average | 50% | +4 p.p. |
At the top, India, Indonesia, and China stood as being the most confident about 2024’s economic prospects. 85% of Indian respondents agreed that the global economy will be stronger in 2024 than in 2023, while 82% of Chinese and Indonesian respondents felt the same.
Regional disparities also become evident, with Asian countries making up the top five most confident countries and seven out of the top nine. In fact, South Korea and Japan were the only Asian countries surveyed that were not feeling confident, with Japanese respondents being the least confident (30%) and South Koreans tied for the second-least confident (33%).
Countries in South America ranged from Brazil having a high of 60% of respondents agree with 2024 being stronger than 2023 to Chile having a “low” of 51%. North American countries were more split, with Mexico feeling more confident and Canada feeling less confident.
Lastly, Europe stood out as being the least confident in the global economy in 2024. Only Poland (56%) had more than 50% agree that this year would be better than the last, while major economies like Germany (40%) and France (33%) sat closer to the bottom of the table.
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