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When Will Your Country Recover from the Pandemic?

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What started as a novel virus in China quickly became a sweeping disease that shut down the world and put a 1.5 year halt on the global economy.

But while some countries’ economies are already back to normal, others are lagging far behind.

COVID-19 Recovery Timelines, by OECD Country

This chart using data from the OECD anticipates when countries will economically recover from the global pandemic, based on getting back to pre-pandemic levels of GDP per capita.

Note: The categorization of ‘advanced’ or ‘emerging’ economy was determined by OECD standards.

covid-19 recovery time by country

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The Leaders of the Pack

At the top, China and the U.S. are recovering at breakneck speed. In fact, recovering is the wrong word for China, as they reached pre-pandemic GDP per capita levels just after Q2’2020.

On the other end, some countries are looking at years—not months—when it comes to their recovery date. Saudi Arabia isn’t expected to recover until after Q1’2024, and Argentina is estimated to have an even slower recovery, occurring only after Q2’2026.

CountryRecoveryEconomy
🇧🇪 BelgiumAfter Q4 2022Advanced
🇸🇪 SwedenAfter Q4 2021Advanced
🇸🇰 SlovakiaAfter Q4 2021Advanced
🇳🇿 New ZealandAfter Q4 2021Advanced
🇩🇪 GermanyAfter Q4 2021Advanced
🇪🇪 EstoniaAfter Q4 2021Advanced
🇩🇰 DenmarkAfter Q4 2021Advanced
🇮🇸 IcelandAfter Q3 2023Advanced
🇸🇮 SloveniaAfter Q3 2022Advanced
🇵🇹 PortugalAfter Q3 2022Advanced
🇫🇷 FranceAfter Q3 2022Advanced
🇦🇹 AustriaAfter Q3 2022Advanced
🇵🇱 PolandAfter Q3 2021Advanced
🇳🇴 NorwayAfter Q3 2021Advanced
🇱🇺 LuxembourgAfter Q3 2021Advanced
🇱🇻 LatviaAfter Q3 2021Advanced
🇯🇵 JapanAfter Q3 2021Advanced
🇫🇮 FinlandAfter Q3 2021Advanced
🇪🇸 SpainAfter Q2 2023Advanced
🇬🇧 United KingdomAfter Q2 2022Advanced
🇳🇱 NetherlandsAfter Q2 2022Advanced
🇮🇹 ItalyAfter Q2 2022Advanced
🇬🇷 GreeceAfter Q2 2022Advanced
🇨🇿 Czech RepublicAfter Q2 2022Advanced
🇨🇦 CanadaAfter Q2 2022Advanced
🇺🇸 United StatesAfter Q2 2021Advanced
🇰🇷 South KoreaAfter Q2 2021Advanced
🇮🇪 IrelandAfter Q2 2021Advanced
🇨🇭 SwitzerlandAfter Q1 2022Advanced
🇮🇱 IsraelAfter Q1 2022Advanced
🇭🇺 HungaryAfter Q1 2022Advanced
🇦🇺 AustraliaAfter Q1 2022Advanced
🇱🇹 LithuaniaAfter Q1 2021Advanced
🇿🇦 South AfricaAfter Q4 2022Emerging
🇮🇩 IndonesiaAfter Q4 2021Emerging
🇮🇳 IndiaAfter Q4 2021Emerging
🇲🇽 MexicoAfter Q3 2023Emerging
🇨🇴 ColombiaAfter Q3 2022Emerging
🇧🇷 BrazilAfter Q3 2022Emerging
🇨🇱 ChileAfter Q3 2021Emerging
🇹🇷 TurkeyAfter Q3 2020Emerging
🇦🇷 ArgentinaAfter Q2 2026Emerging
🇨🇷 Costa RicaAfter Q2 2023Emerging
🇷🇺 RussiaAfter Q2 2021Emerging
🇨🇳 ChinaAfter Q2 2020Emerging
🇸🇦 Saudi ArabiaAfter Q1 2024Emerging

Most countries will hit pre-pandemic levels of GDP per capita by the end of 2022. The slowest recovering advanced economies—Iceland and Spain—aren’t expected to bounce back until 2023.

Four emerging economies are speeding ahead, and are predicted to get back on their feet by the end of this year or slightly later (if they haven’t already):

  • 🇷🇺 Russia: after Q2’2021
  • 🇨🇱 Chile: after Q3’2021
  • 🇮🇳 India: after Q4’2021
  • 🇮🇩 Indonesia: after Q4’2021

However, no recovery is guaranteed, and many countries will continue face setbacks as waves of COVID-19 variants hit—India, for example, was battling its biggest wave as recently as May 2021.

Trailing Behind

Why are some countries recovering faster than others? One factor seems to be vaccination rates.

CountryDoses Administered per 100 PeopleTotal Doses AdministeredPercent of Population Fully Vaccinated
World473,573,004,544
🇦🇪 U.A.E.16616,194,52669%
🇲🇹 Malta143718,41871%
🇧🇭 Bahrain1362,224,91663%
🇮🇸 Iceland129466,43470%
🇺🇾 Uruguay1294,458,39458%
🇨🇱 Chile12824,248,54560%
🇦🇼 Aruba125133,42159%
🇶🇦 Qatar1233,474,94456%
🇬🇧 United Kingdom12281,438,89253%
Mongolia1213,912,99656%
Israel12110,959,63358%
Canada11844,293,65948%
Singapore1136,440,73542%
Belgium11112,700,51346%
Curaçao108170,85751%
Denmark1086,266,89243%
Maldives106561,74846%
Netherlands10518,273,23843%
Spain10549,585,19749%
Hungary10410,155,46654%
Portugal10310,579,25944%
Luxembourg102633,97441%
Germany10284,989,85045%
China1021,426,347,000
United States101336,054,95348%
Ireland1014,995,71944%
Austria1008,866,47444%
Italy9959,966,90841%
Switzerland958,133,48642%
France9362,321,35540%
Sweden939,536,16436%
Finland904,951,92526%
Norway894,785,93731%
Greece899,560,59242%
Lithuania882,459,60542%
Czech Republic889,346,39738%
Poland8532,413,19942%
Dominican Rep.849,066,15134%
Estonia791,049,41634%
Serbia785,415,43438%
Slovenia781,626,07236%
Cyprus76916,81935%
Turkey7461,747,39923%
Slovakia734,003,63933%
Mauritius71901,53024%
Croatia712,870,86632%
Macau69434,72627%
Cuba697,767,60117%
Latvia661,264,43333%
Bhutan64487,0600.02%
Saudi Arabia6321,556,3149.2%
Hong Kong624,638,90826%
Barbados59168,95525%
Argentina5826,134,81511%
Brazil57120,726,75216%
Kuwait562,375,45522%
Morocco5620,584,81226%
Cambodia56924292524%
El Salvador533,422,21420%
Japan5366,714,52820%
Costa Rica522,606,79116%
French Polynesia51141,52324%
Montenegro49304,65523%
Fiji47419,9988%
Romania479,092,14124%
Guyana46363,44216%
Colombia4522,624,56819%
Jordan454,498,74818%
Azerbaijan424,242,72717%
Panama421,781,54215%
Mexico4152,704,96017%
Malaysia4113,107,68113%
South Korea4121,157,61212%
New Caledonia40115,21819%
Ecuador406,890,87610%
Kazakhstan397,303,18014%
Suriname38222,3778%
Australia389,631,80710%
Belize38147,08010%
Albania371,052,10816%
Russia3550,383,63814%
Oman351,728,6186%
North Macedonia34713,11413%
Samoa3262,1614.7%
Moldova31834,52713%
Grenada3135,07213%
Peru319,954,42912%
Saint Lucia3054,36113%
Sri Lanka296,431,1007.3%
India29391,340,4916%
New Zealand291,404,34311%
Brunei28121,2414.3%
Tonga2728,667
Bulgaria271,896,57412%
Bolivia273,117,5217%
Trinidad and Tobago27375,92411%
Bahamas2597,99210%
Lebanon251,693,1649%
Laos241,708,9819%
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines2325,509
Cape Verde23124,9583%
Timor-Leste22281,2833%
Indonesia2155,819,7816%
Equatorial Guinea21279,1129%
West Bank & Gaza20958,5199%
Thailand1913,533,7175%
Taiwan194,603,6391%
Tunisia192,206,9806%
São Tomé and Príncipe1837,7165%
Bosnia and Herzegovina14470,2185%
Venezuela144,000,0004%
Nepal133,730,3444%
Philippines1314,074,5144%
Botswana12284,6765%
Honduras121,172,8301%
Paraguay12826,6422%
Belarus
Zimbabwe111,575,5394%
Comoros1190,880
Uzbekistan113,541,4424%
Pakistan102,166,06502%
Jamaica9.8290,3824%
Armenia8.8260,8132%
Ukraine8.83,899,8903%
Iran7.96,530,1243%
Georgia7.8289,3993%
South Africa7.74,535,2223%
Guatemala6.91,146,4771%
Namibia6.7166,6161%
Myanmar6.5*3,500,000
Libya6.3425,119
Bangladesh6.210,108,2243%
Guinea6770,6882%
Algeria
Eswatini5.260,0692%
Rwanda5.1646,9092%
Senegal5.1823,6102%
Angola4.91,558,2012%
Egypt4.84,851,3491%
Vanuatu4.714,026
Vietnam4.34,185,6230.3%
Togo
Tajikistan4.3397,6940.2%
Ghana4.21,265,3061%
Mauritania4182,6420.3%
Solomon Islands3.825,6281%
Ivory Coast3.3861,278
Gabon3.372,3511%
Republic of the Congo3163,742
Kenya2.91,550,3891%
Sierra Leone2.9225,3800.2%
Iraq2.81,087,8661%
Djibouti2.826,796
Afghanistan2.71,024,1681%
Kyrgyzstan2.7173,7001.%
Lesotho2.756,3221%
Nicaragua
Uganda2.41,079,943
Malawi2.3428,4070.2%
Nigeria23,938,9451%
Liberia1.995,4230.2%
Ethiopia1.92,090,997
Gambia1.943,5571%
Niger1.8423,3350.3%
Mozambique1.7508,1841%
Central African Republic1.778,685
Somalia1.6249,7901%
Sudan1.6677,9570.3%
Zambia1.4243,8180.3%
Guinea-Bissau1.325,0120.1%
Yemen1297,405<0.1%
Mali1196,8620.3%
Syria0.8131,2210.1%
Madagascar0.7197,001
Turkmenistan
Cameroon0.6163,9210.1%
Papua New Guinea0.651,170<0.1%
South Sudan0.555,915<0.1%
Benin0.452,5630.1%
Burkina Faso0.233,960<0.1%
Chad0.224,459<0.1%
Congo0.173,764<0.1%

As of July 16th, 2021.

The higher the rate of vaccination, the harder it is for COVID-19 to spread. This gives countries a chance to loosen restrictions, let people get back to work and regular life, and fuel the economy. Additionally, the quicker vaccines are rolled out, the less time there is for variants to mutate.

Another factor is the overall strength of a country’s healthcare infrastructure. More advanced economies often have more ICU capacity, more efficient dissemination of public health information, and, simply, more hospital staff. These traits help better handle the pandemic, with reduced cases, less restrictions, and a speedy recovery.

Finally, the level of government support and fiscal stimulus injected into different economies has determined how swiftly they’ve recovered. Similar to the disparity in vaccine rollouts, there was a significant fiscal stimulus gap, especially during the heat of the pandemic.

Recovering to Normal?

Many experts and government leaders are now advocating for funneling more money into healthcare infrastructure and disease research preventatively. The increased funding now would help stop worldwide shut downs and needless loss of life in future.

Time will tell when we return to “normal” everywhere, however, normal will likely never be the same. Many impacts of the global pandemic will stay with us over the long term.

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Culture

How Do Democrats and Republicans Feel About Certain U.S. Industries?

A survey looked at U.S. industry favorability across political lines, showing where Democrats and Republicans are divided over the economy.

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A cropped chart with the percentage of Democrats and Republicans that found specific U.S. industries "favorable."

Industry Favorability, by Political Party

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Much and more has been written, in the last decade particularly, about the U.S. political sphere becoming increasingly polarized. The two main parties—Democrats and Republicans—have clashed over how to run the economy, as well as on key social issues.

Perhaps unsurprisingly then, Democrat and Republican voters are also divided on various U.S. industries, per a YouGov poll conducted in 2022.

Between November 7-9th of that year, the market research firm polled 1,000 adult Americans, (sampled to represent prevailing demographic, racial, and political-party-affiliation trends in the country) on their opinions on 39 industries. They asked:

“Generally speaking, do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the following industry?” — YouGov Poll.

In this chart we visualize the percentage with a favorable view of an industry minus those with unfavorable view, categorized by current voter status.

A higher percentage means more Democrats or Republicans rated the industry as favorable, and vice-versa. Negative percentages mean more respondents responded unfavorably.

Democrats vs. Republicans on Industry Favorability

From a glance, it’s immediately noticeable that quite a few industries have divided Democrats and Republics quite severely.

For example, of the sampled Democrats, a net 45%, found Higher Education “favorable.” This is compared to 0% on the Republican side, which means an equal number found the industry favorable and unfavorable.

Here’s the full list of net favorable responses from Democrats and Republicans per industry.

IndustryDemocrat Net
Favorability
Republican Net
Favorability
Agriculture44%55%
Trucking27%55%
Restaurant53%54%
Manufacturing27%53%
Construction23%49%
Dairy45%46%
Higher education45%0%
Technology44%36%
Food manufacturing15%37%
Transportation27%37%
Railroad37%35%
Mining-3%36%
Automotive19%36%
Grocery35%22%
Hotels30%35%
Textiles24%34%
Entertainment34%-17%
Shipping24%33%
Retail31%31%
Book publishing30%29%
Alcohol23%16%
Television22%3%
Waste management15%22%
Education services21%-16%
Wireless carriers19%19%
Broadcasting17%-30%
News media17%-57%
Airlines11%3%
Oil and gas-28%7%
Real-estate-2%6%
Utilities2%6%
Health care3%4%
Fashion4%-6%
Cable-12%3%
Finance2%-2%
Professional sports1%-2%
Insurance-12%-14%
Pharmaceutical-18%-14%
Tobacco-44%-27%

The other few immediately noticeable disparities in favorability include:

  • Mining and Oil and Gas, (more Republicans in favor),
  • Entertainment, Education Services, and News Media (more Democrats in favor).

Tellingly, the larger social and political concerns at play are influencing Democrat and Republican opinions about these parts of the economy.

For example Pew Research pointed out Republicans are dissatisfied with universities for a number of reasons: worries about constraints on free speech, campus “culture wars,” and professors bringing their politics into the classroom.

In contrast, Democrats’ criticisms of higher education revolved around tuition costs and the quality of education offered.

On a more recent note, Citadel CEO Ken Griffin, a big Harvard donor, pulled funding after criticizing universities for educating “whiny snowflakes.” In October, donors to the University of Pennsylvania withdrew their support, upset with the university’s response to the October 7th attacks and subsequent war in Gaza.

Meanwhile, the reasons for differences over media favorability are more obvious. Commentators say being “anti-media” is now part of the larger Republican leadership identity, and in turn, is trickling down to their voters. Pew Research also found that Republicans are less likely to trust the news if it comes from a “mainstream” source.

But these are industries that are already adjacent to the larger political sphere. What about the others?

U.S. Politics and the Climate Crisis

The disparity over how the Oil & Gas and Mining industries are viewed is a reflection, again, of American politics and the partisan divide around the climate crisis and whether there’s a noticeable impact from human activity.

Both industries contribute heavily to carbon emissions, and Democrat lawmakers have previously urged the Biden transition to start planning for the end of fossil-fuel reliance.

Meanwhile, former President Trump, for example, has previously called global warming “a hoax” but later reversed course, clarifying that he didn’t know if it was “man-made.”

When removing the climate context, and related environmental degradation, both industries usually pay high wages and produce materials critical to many other parts of the economy, including the strategic metals needed for the energy transition.

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