When Will Your Country Recover from the Pandemic?
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When Will Your Country Recover from the Pandemic?

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What started as a novel virus in China quickly became a sweeping disease that shut down the world and put a 1.5 year halt on the global economy.

But while some countries’ economies are already back to normal, others are lagging far behind.

COVID-19 Recovery Timelines, by OECD Country

This chart using data from the OECD anticipates when countries will economically recover from the global pandemic, based on getting back to pre-pandemic levels of GDP per capita.

Note: The categorization of ‘advanced’ or ‘emerging’ economy was determined by OECD standards.

covid-19 recovery time by country

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The Leaders of the Pack

At the top, China and the U.S. are recovering at breakneck speed. In fact, recovering is the wrong word for China, as they reached pre-pandemic GDP per capita levels just after Q2’2020.

On the other end, some countries are looking at years—not months—when it comes to their recovery date. Saudi Arabia isn’t expected to recover until after Q1’2024, and Argentina is estimated to have an even slower recovery, occurring only after Q2’2026.

CountryRecoveryEconomy
🇧🇪 BelgiumAfter Q4 2022Advanced
🇸🇪 SwedenAfter Q4 2021Advanced
🇸🇰 SlovakiaAfter Q4 2021Advanced
🇳🇿 New ZealandAfter Q4 2021Advanced
🇩🇪 GermanyAfter Q4 2021Advanced
🇪🇪 EstoniaAfter Q4 2021Advanced
🇩🇰 DenmarkAfter Q4 2021Advanced
🇮🇸 IcelandAfter Q3 2023Advanced
🇸🇮 SloveniaAfter Q3 2022Advanced
🇵🇹 PortugalAfter Q3 2022Advanced
🇫🇷 FranceAfter Q3 2022Advanced
🇦🇹 AustriaAfter Q3 2022Advanced
🇵🇱 PolandAfter Q3 2021Advanced
🇳🇴 NorwayAfter Q3 2021Advanced
🇱🇺 LuxembourgAfter Q3 2021Advanced
🇱🇻 LatviaAfter Q3 2021Advanced
🇯🇵 JapanAfter Q3 2021Advanced
🇫🇮 FinlandAfter Q3 2021Advanced
🇪🇸 SpainAfter Q2 2023Advanced
🇬🇧 United KingdomAfter Q2 2022Advanced
🇳🇱 NetherlandsAfter Q2 2022Advanced
🇮🇹 ItalyAfter Q2 2022Advanced
🇬🇷 GreeceAfter Q2 2022Advanced
🇨🇿 Czech RepublicAfter Q2 2022Advanced
🇨🇦 CanadaAfter Q2 2022Advanced
🇺🇸 United StatesAfter Q2 2021Advanced
🇰🇷 South KoreaAfter Q2 2021Advanced
🇮🇪 IrelandAfter Q2 2021Advanced
🇨🇭 SwitzerlandAfter Q1 2022Advanced
🇮🇱 IsraelAfter Q1 2022Advanced
🇭🇺 HungaryAfter Q1 2022Advanced
🇦🇺 AustraliaAfter Q1 2022Advanced
🇱🇹 LithuaniaAfter Q1 2021Advanced
🇿🇦 South AfricaAfter Q4 2022Emerging
🇮🇩 IndonesiaAfter Q4 2021Emerging
🇮🇳 IndiaAfter Q4 2021Emerging
🇲🇽 MexicoAfter Q3 2023Emerging
🇨🇴 ColombiaAfter Q3 2022Emerging
🇧🇷 BrazilAfter Q3 2022Emerging
🇨🇱 ChileAfter Q3 2021Emerging
🇹🇷 TurkeyAfter Q3 2020Emerging
🇦🇷 ArgentinaAfter Q2 2026Emerging
🇨🇷 Costa RicaAfter Q2 2023Emerging
🇷🇺 RussiaAfter Q2 2021Emerging
🇨🇳 ChinaAfter Q2 2020Emerging
🇸🇦 Saudi ArabiaAfter Q1 2024Emerging

Most countries will hit pre-pandemic levels of GDP per capita by the end of 2022. The slowest recovering advanced economies—Iceland and Spain—aren’t expected to bounce back until 2023.

Four emerging economies are speeding ahead, and are predicted to get back on their feet by the end of this year or slightly later (if they haven’t already):

  • 🇷🇺 Russia: after Q2’2021
  • 🇨🇱 Chile: after Q3’2021
  • 🇮🇳 India: after Q4’2021
  • 🇮🇩 Indonesia: after Q4’2021

However, no recovery is guaranteed, and many countries will continue face setbacks as waves of COVID-19 variants hit—India, for example, was battling its biggest wave as recently as May 2021.

Trailing Behind

Why are some countries recovering faster than others? One factor seems to be vaccination rates.

CountryDoses Administered per 100 PeopleTotal Doses AdministeredPercent of Population Fully Vaccinated
World473,573,004,544
🇦🇪 U.A.E.16616,194,52669%
🇲🇹 Malta143718,41871%
🇧🇭 Bahrain1362,224,91663%
🇮🇸 Iceland129466,43470%
🇺🇾 Uruguay1294,458,39458%
🇨🇱 Chile12824,248,54560%
🇦🇼 Aruba125133,42159%
🇶🇦 Qatar1233,474,94456%
🇬🇧 United Kingdom12281,438,89253%
Mongolia1213,912,99656%
Israel12110,959,63358%
Canada11844,293,65948%
Singapore1136,440,73542%
Belgium11112,700,51346%
Curaçao108170,85751%
Denmark1086,266,89243%
Maldives106561,74846%
Netherlands10518,273,23843%
Spain10549,585,19749%
Hungary10410,155,46654%
Portugal10310,579,25944%
Luxembourg102633,97441%
Germany10284,989,85045%
China1021,426,347,000
United States101336,054,95348%
Ireland1014,995,71944%
Austria1008,866,47444%
Italy9959,966,90841%
Switzerland958,133,48642%
France9362,321,35540%
Sweden939,536,16436%
Finland904,951,92526%
Norway894,785,93731%
Greece899,560,59242%
Lithuania882,459,60542%
Czech Republic889,346,39738%
Poland8532,413,19942%
Dominican Rep.849,066,15134%
Estonia791,049,41634%
Serbia785,415,43438%
Slovenia781,626,07236%
Cyprus76916,81935%
Turkey7461,747,39923%
Slovakia734,003,63933%
Mauritius71901,53024%
Croatia712,870,86632%
Macau69434,72627%
Cuba697,767,60117%
Latvia661,264,43333%
Bhutan64487,0600.02%
Saudi Arabia6321,556,3149.2%
Hong Kong624,638,90826%
Barbados59168,95525%
Argentina5826,134,81511%
Brazil57120,726,75216%
Kuwait562,375,45522%
Morocco5620,584,81226%
Cambodia56924292524%
El Salvador533,422,21420%
Japan5366,714,52820%
Costa Rica522,606,79116%
French Polynesia51141,52324%
Montenegro49304,65523%
Fiji47419,9988%
Romania479,092,14124%
Guyana46363,44216%
Colombia4522,624,56819%
Jordan454,498,74818%
Azerbaijan424,242,72717%
Panama421,781,54215%
Mexico4152,704,96017%
Malaysia4113,107,68113%
South Korea4121,157,61212%
New Caledonia40115,21819%
Ecuador406,890,87610%
Kazakhstan397,303,18014%
Suriname38222,3778%
Australia389,631,80710%
Belize38147,08010%
Albania371,052,10816%
Russia3550,383,63814%
Oman351,728,6186%
North Macedonia34713,11413%
Samoa3262,1614.7%
Moldova31834,52713%
Grenada3135,07213%
Peru319,954,42912%
Saint Lucia3054,36113%
Sri Lanka296,431,1007.3%
India29391,340,4916%
New Zealand291,404,34311%
Brunei28121,2414.3%
Tonga2728,667
Bulgaria271,896,57412%
Bolivia273,117,5217%
Trinidad and Tobago27375,92411%
Bahamas2597,99210%
Lebanon251,693,1649%
Laos241,708,9819%
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines2325,509
Cape Verde23124,9583%
Timor-Leste22281,2833%
Indonesia2155,819,7816%
Equatorial Guinea21279,1129%
West Bank & Gaza20958,5199%
Thailand1913,533,7175%
Taiwan194,603,6391%
Tunisia192,206,9806%
São Tomé and Príncipe1837,7165%
Bosnia and Herzegovina14470,2185%
Venezuela144,000,0004%
Nepal133,730,3444%
Philippines1314,074,5144%
Botswana12284,6765%
Honduras121,172,8301%
Paraguay12826,6422%
Belarus
Zimbabwe111,575,5394%
Comoros1190,880
Uzbekistan113,541,4424%
Pakistan102,166,06502%
Jamaica9.8290,3824%
Armenia8.8260,8132%
Ukraine8.83,899,8903%
Iran7.96,530,1243%
Georgia7.8289,3993%
South Africa7.74,535,2223%
Guatemala6.91,146,4771%
Namibia6.7166,6161%
Myanmar6.5*3,500,000
Libya6.3425,119
Bangladesh6.210,108,2243%
Guinea6770,6882%
Algeria
Eswatini5.260,0692%
Rwanda5.1646,9092%
Senegal5.1823,6102%
Angola4.91,558,2012%
Egypt4.84,851,3491%
Vanuatu4.714,026
Vietnam4.34,185,6230.3%
Togo
Tajikistan4.3397,6940.2%
Ghana4.21,265,3061%
Mauritania4182,6420.3%
Solomon Islands3.825,6281%
Ivory Coast3.3861,278
Gabon3.372,3511%
Republic of the Congo3163,742
Kenya2.91,550,3891%
Sierra Leone2.9225,3800.2%
Iraq2.81,087,8661%
Djibouti2.826,796
Afghanistan2.71,024,1681%
Kyrgyzstan2.7173,7001.%
Lesotho2.756,3221%
Nicaragua
Uganda2.41,079,943
Malawi2.3428,4070.2%
Nigeria23,938,9451%
Liberia1.995,4230.2%
Ethiopia1.92,090,997
Gambia1.943,5571%
Niger1.8423,3350.3%
Mozambique1.7508,1841%
Central African Republic1.778,685
Somalia1.6249,7901%
Sudan1.6677,9570.3%
Zambia1.4243,8180.3%
Guinea-Bissau1.325,0120.1%
Yemen1297,405<0.1%
Mali1196,8620.3%
Syria0.8131,2210.1%
Madagascar0.7197,001
Turkmenistan
Cameroon0.6163,9210.1%
Papua New Guinea0.651,170<0.1%
South Sudan0.555,915<0.1%
Benin0.452,5630.1%
Burkina Faso0.233,960<0.1%
Chad0.224,459<0.1%
Congo0.173,764<0.1%

As of July 16th, 2021.

The higher the rate of vaccination, the harder it is for COVID-19 to spread. This gives countries a chance to loosen restrictions, let people get back to work and regular life, and fuel the economy. Additionally, the quicker vaccines are rolled out, the less time there is for variants to mutate.

Another factor is the overall strength of a country’s healthcare infrastructure. More advanced economies often have more ICU capacity, more efficient dissemination of public health information, and, simply, more hospital staff. These traits help better handle the pandemic, with reduced cases, less restrictions, and a speedy recovery.

Finally, the level of government support and fiscal stimulus injected into different economies has determined how swiftly they’ve recovered. Similar to the disparity in vaccine rollouts, there was a significant fiscal stimulus gap, especially during the heat of the pandemic.

Recovering to Normal?

Many experts and government leaders are now advocating for funneling more money into healthcare infrastructure and disease research preventatively. The increased funding now would help stop worldwide shut downs and needless loss of life in future.

Time will tell when we return to “normal” everywhere, however, normal will likely never be the same. Many impacts of the global pandemic will stay with us over the long term.

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Markets

3 Insights From the FED’s Latest Economic Snapshot

Stay up to date on the U.S. economy with this infographic summarizing the most recent Federal Reserve data released.

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us economic snapshot

3 Insights From the Latest U.S. Economic Data

Each month, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes monthly economic snapshots.

To make this report accessible to a wider audience, we’ve identified the three most important takeaways from the report and compiled them into one infographic.

1. Growth figures in Q2 will make or break a recession

Generally speaking, a recession begins when an economy exhibits two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Because U.S. GDP shrank by -1.5% in Q1 2022 (January to March), a lot rests on the Q2 figure (April to June) which should be released on July 28th.

Referencing strong business activity and continued growth in consumer spending, economists predict that U.S. GDP will grow by +2.1% in Q2. This would mark a decisive reversal from Q1, and put an end to recessionary fears for the time being.

Unfortunately, inflation is the top financial concern for Americans, and this is dampening consumer confidence. Shown below, the consumer confidence index reflects the public’s short-term outlook for income, business, and labor conditions.

consumer price index 2005 to 2022

Falling consumer confidence suggests that more people will delay big purchases such as cars, major appliances, and vacations.

2. The COVID-era housing boom could be over

Housing markets have been riding high since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, but this run is likely coming to an end. Here’s a summary of what’s happened since 2020:

  • Lockdowns in early 2020 created lots of pent-up demand for homes
  • Greater household savings and record-low mortgage rates pushed demand even further
  • Supply chain disruptions greatly increased the cost of materials like lumber
  • Construction of new homes couldn’t keep up, and housing supply fell to historic lows

Today, home prices are at record highs and the cost of borrowing is rapidly rising. For evidence, look no further than the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, which has doubled to more than 6% since the beginning of 2022.

Given these developments, the drop in the number of home sales could be a sign that many Americans are being priced out of the market.

3. Don’t expect groceries to become any cheaper

Inflation has been a hot topic this year, especially with gas prices reaching $5 a gallon. But there’s one category of goods that’s perhaps even more alarming: food.

The following table includes food inflation over the past three years, as the percent change over the past 12 months.

DateCPI Food Component (%)
2018-02-011.4%
2019-05-012.0%
2019-06-011.9%
2019-07-011.8%
2019-08-011.7%
2019-09-011.8%
2019-10-012.1%
2019-11-012.0%
2019-12-011.8%
2020-01-011.8%
2020-02-011.8%
2020-03-011.9%
2020-04-013.5%
2020-05-014.0%
2020-06-014.5%
2020-07-014.1%
2020-08-014.1%
2020-09-014.0%
2020-10-013.9%
2020-11-013.7%
2020-12-013.9%
2021-01-013.8%
2021-02-013.6%
2021-03-013.5%
2021-04-012.4%
2021-05-012.1%
2021-06-012.4%
2021-07-013.4%
2021-08-013.7%
2021-09-014.6%
2021-10-015.3%
2021-11-016.1%
2021-12-016.3%
2022-01-017.0%
2022-02-017.9%
2022-03-018.8%
2022-04-019.4%
2022-05-0110.1%

From this data, we can see that food inflation really picked up speed in April 2020, jumping to +3.5% from +1.9% in the previous month. This was due to supply chain disruptions and a sudden rebound in global demand.

Fast forward to today, and food inflation is running rampant at 10.1%. A contributing factor is the impending fertilizer shortage, which stems from the Ukraine war. As it turns out, Russia is not only a massive exporter of oil, but wheat and fertilizer as well.

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Demographics

Mapped: A Decade of Population Growth and Decline in U.S. Counties

This map shows which counties in the U.S. have seen the most growth, and which places have seen their populations dwindle in the last 10 years.

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A Decade of Population Growth and Decline in U.S. Counties

There are a number of factors that determine how much a region’s population changes.

If an area sees a high number of migrants, along with a strong birth rate and low death rate, then its population is bound to increase over time. On the flip side, if more people are leaving the area than coming in, and the region’s birth rate is low, then its population will likely decline.

Which areas in the United States are seeing the most growth, and which places are seeing their populations dwindle?

This map, using data from the U.S. Census Bureau, shows a decade of population movement across U.S. counties, painting a detailed picture of U.S. population growth between 2010 and 2020.

Counties With The Biggest Population Growth from 2010-2020

To calculate population estimates for each county, the U.S. Census Bureau does the following calculations:

A county’s base population → plus births → minus deaths → plus migration = new population estimate

 
From 2010 to 2020, Maricopa County in Arizona saw the highest increase in its population estimate. Over a decade, the county gained 753,898 residents. Below are the counties that saw the biggest increases in population:

RankCountyPoint of ReferenceStatePop. Growth (2010–2020)
#1Maricopa CountyPhoenix, ScottsdaleArizona+753,898
#2Harris CountyHoustonTexas+630,711
#3Clark CountyLas VegasNevada+363,323
#4King CountySeattleWashington+335,884
#5Tarrant CountyFort Worth, ArlingtonTexas+305,180
#6Bexar CountySan AntonioTexas+303,982
#7Riverside CountyRiverside, Palm SpringsCalifornia+287,626
#8Collin CountyPlanoTexas+284,967
#9Travis CountyAustinTexas+270,111
#10Hillsborough CountyTampaFlorida+264,446

Phoenix and surrounding areas grew faster than any other major city in the country. The region’s sunny climate and amenities are popular with retirees, but another draw is housing affordability. Families from more expensive markets—California in particular—are moving to the city in droves. This is a trend that spilled over into the pandemic era as more people moved into remote and hybrid work situations.

Texas counties saw a lot of growth as well, with five of the top 10 gainers located in the state of Texas. A big draw for Texas is its relatively affordable housing market. In 2021, average home prices in the state stood at $172,500$53,310 below the national average.

Counties With The Biggest Population Drops from 2010-2020

On the opposite end of the spectrum, here’s a look at the top 10 counties that saw the biggest declines in their populations over the decade:

RankCountyPoint of ReferenceStatePop. Growth (2010–2020)
#1Cook CountyChicagoIllinois-90,693
#2Wayne CountyDetroitMichigan-74,224
#3Cuyahoga CountyClevelandOhio-50,220
#4Genesee CountyFlintMichigan-20,165
#5Suffolk CountyLong IslandNew York-20,064
#6Caddo ParishShreveportLouisiana-18,173
#7Westmoreland CountyMurrysvillePennsylvania-17,942
#8Hinds CountyJacksonMississippi-17,751
#9Kanawha CountyCharlestonWest Virginia-16,672
#10Cambria CountyJohnstownPennsylvania-14,786

The largest drops happened in counties along the Great Lakes, including Cook County (which includes the city of Chicago) and Wayne County (which includes the city of Detroit).

For many of these counties, particularly those in America’s “Rust Belt”, population drops over this period were a continuation of decades-long trends. Wayne County is an extreme example of this trend. From 1970 to 2020, the area lost one-third of its population.

U.S. Population Growth in Percentage Terms (2010-2020)

While the map above is great at showing where the greatest number of Americans migrated, it downplays big changes in counties with smaller populations.

For example, McKenzie County in North Dakota, with a 2020 population of just 15,242, was the fastest-growing U.S. county over the past decade. The county’s 138% increase was driven primarily by the Bakken oil boom in the area. High-growth counties in Texas also grew as new sources of energy were extracted in rural areas.

The nation’s counties are evenly divided between population increase and decline, and clear patterns emerge.

population changes in u.s. counties (%)

Pandemic Population Changes

More recent population changes reflect longer-term trends. During the COVID-19 pandemic, many of the counties that saw the strongest population increases were located in high-growth states like Florida and Texas.

Below are the 20 counties that grew the most from 2020 to 2021.

RankCountyPoint of ReferenceStatePop. Growth (2020–2021)
#1Maricopa CountyPhoenixArizona+58,246
#2Collin CountyPlanoTexas+36,313
#3Riverside CountyRiverside, Palm SpringsCalifornia+35,631
#4Fort Bend CountySugar LandTexas+29,895
#5Williamson CountyGeorgetownTexas+27,760
#6Denton CountyDentonTexas+27,747
#7Polk CountyLakelandFlorida+24,287
#8Montgomery CountyThe WoodlandsTexas+23,948
#9Lee CountyFort MyersFlorida+23,297
#10Utah CountyProvoUtah+21,843
#11Pinal CountySan Tan ValleyArizona+19,974
#12Clark CountyLas VegasNevada+19,090
#13Pasco CountyNew Port RicheyFlorida+18,322
#14Wake CountyRaleighNorth Carolina+16,651
#15St. Johns CountySt. AugustineFlorida+15,550
#16Hillsborough CountyTampaFlorida+14,814
#17Bexar CountySan AntonioTexas+14,184
#18Ada CountyBoiseIdaho+13,947
#19Osceola CountyKissimmeeFlorida+12,427
#20St. Lucie CountyFort PierceFlorida+12,304

Many of these counties are located next to large cities, reflecting a shift to the suburbs and larger living spaces. However, as COVID-19 restrictions ease, and the pandemic housing boom tapers off due to rising interest rates, it remains to be seen whether the suburban shift will continue, or if people begin to migrate back to city centers.

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