What started as a novel virus in China quickly became a sweeping disease that shut down the world and put a 1.5 year halt on the global economy.
But while some countries’ economies are already back to normal, others are lagging far behind.
COVID-19 Recovery Timelines, by OECD Country
This chart using data from the OECD anticipates when countries will economically recover from the global pandemic, based on getting back to pre-pandemic levels of GDP per capita.
Note: The categorization of ‘advanced’ or ‘emerging’ economy was determined by OECD standards.
The Leaders of the Pack
At the top, China and the U.S. are recovering at breakneck speed. In fact, recovering is the wrong word for China, as they reached pre-pandemic GDP per capita levels just after Q2’2020.
On the other end, some countries are looking at years—not months—when it comes to their recovery date. Saudi Arabia isn’t expected to recover until after Q1’2024, and Argentina is estimated to have an even slower recovery, occurring only after Q2’2026.
|🇧🇪 Belgium||After Q4 2022||Advanced|
|🇸🇪 Sweden||After Q4 2021||Advanced|
|🇸🇰 Slovakia||After Q4 2021||Advanced|
|🇳🇿 New Zealand||After Q4 2021||Advanced|
|🇩🇪 Germany||After Q4 2021||Advanced|
|🇪🇪 Estonia||After Q4 2021||Advanced|
|🇩🇰 Denmark||After Q4 2021||Advanced|
|🇮🇸 Iceland||After Q3 2023||Advanced|
|🇸🇮 Slovenia||After Q3 2022||Advanced|
|🇵🇹 Portugal||After Q3 2022||Advanced|
|🇫🇷 France||After Q3 2022||Advanced|
|🇦🇹 Austria||After Q3 2022||Advanced|
|🇵🇱 Poland||After Q3 2021||Advanced|
|🇳🇴 Norway||After Q3 2021||Advanced|
|🇱🇺 Luxembourg||After Q3 2021||Advanced|
|🇱🇻 Latvia||After Q3 2021||Advanced|
|🇯🇵 Japan||After Q3 2021||Advanced|
|🇫🇮 Finland||After Q3 2021||Advanced|
|🇪🇸 Spain||After Q2 2023||Advanced|
|🇬🇧 United Kingdom||After Q2 2022||Advanced|
|🇳🇱 Netherlands||After Q2 2022||Advanced|
|🇮🇹 Italy||After Q2 2022||Advanced|
|🇬🇷 Greece||After Q2 2022||Advanced|
|🇨🇿 Czech Republic||After Q2 2022||Advanced|
|🇨🇦 Canada||After Q2 2022||Advanced|
|🇺🇸 United States||After Q2 2021||Advanced|
|🇰🇷 South Korea||After Q2 2021||Advanced|
|🇮🇪 Ireland||After Q2 2021||Advanced|
|🇨🇭 Switzerland||After Q1 2022||Advanced|
|🇮🇱 Israel||After Q1 2022||Advanced|
|🇭🇺 Hungary||After Q1 2022||Advanced|
|🇦🇺 Australia||After Q1 2022||Advanced|
|🇱🇹 Lithuania||After Q1 2021||Advanced|
|🇿🇦 South Africa||After Q4 2022||Emerging|
|🇮🇩 Indonesia||After Q4 2021||Emerging|
|🇮🇳 India||After Q4 2021||Emerging|
|🇲🇽 Mexico||After Q3 2023||Emerging|
|🇨🇴 Colombia||After Q3 2022||Emerging|
|🇧🇷 Brazil||After Q3 2022||Emerging|
|🇨🇱 Chile||After Q3 2021||Emerging|
|🇹🇷 Turkey||After Q3 2020||Emerging|
|🇦🇷 Argentina||After Q2 2026||Emerging|
|🇨🇷 Costa Rica||After Q2 2023||Emerging|
|🇷🇺 Russia||After Q2 2021||Emerging|
|🇨🇳 China||After Q2 2020||Emerging|
|🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia||After Q1 2024||Emerging|
Most countries will hit pre-pandemic levels of GDP per capita by the end of 2022. The slowest recovering advanced economies—Iceland and Spain—aren’t expected to bounce back until 2023.
Four emerging economies are speeding ahead, and are predicted to get back on their feet by the end of this year or slightly later (if they haven’t already):
- 🇷🇺 Russia: after Q2’2021
- 🇨🇱 Chile: after Q3’2021
- 🇮🇳 India: after Q4’2021
- 🇮🇩 Indonesia: after Q4’2021
However, no recovery is guaranteed, and many countries will continue face setbacks as waves of COVID-19 variants hit—India, for example, was battling its biggest wave as recently as May 2021.
Why are some countries recovering faster than others? One factor seems to be vaccination rates.
|Country||Doses Administered per 100 People||Total Doses Administered||Percent of Population Fully Vaccinated|
|🇬🇧 United Kingdom||122||81,438,892||53%|
|Trinidad and Tobago||27||375,924||11%|
|Saint Vincent and the Grenadines||23||25,509||–|
|West Bank & Gaza||20||958,519||9%|
|São Tomé and Príncipe||18||37,716||5%|
|Bosnia and Herzegovina||14||470,218||5%|
|Republic of the Congo||3||163,742||–|
|Central African Republic||1.7||78,685||–|
|Papua New Guinea||0.6||51,170||<0.1%|
As of July 16th, 2021.
The higher the rate of vaccination, the harder it is for COVID-19 to spread. This gives countries a chance to loosen restrictions, let people get back to work and regular life, and fuel the economy. Additionally, the quicker vaccines are rolled out, the less time there is for variants to mutate.
Another factor is the overall strength of a country’s healthcare infrastructure. More advanced economies often have more ICU capacity, more efficient dissemination of public health information, and, simply, more hospital staff. These traits help better handle the pandemic, with reduced cases, less restrictions, and a speedy recovery.
Finally, the level of government support and fiscal stimulus injected into different economies has determined how swiftly they’ve recovered. Similar to the disparity in vaccine rollouts, there was a significant fiscal stimulus gap, especially during the heat of the pandemic.
Recovering to Normal?
Many experts and government leaders are now advocating for funneling more money into healthcare infrastructure and disease research preventatively. The increased funding now would help stop worldwide shut downs and needless loss of life in future.
Time will tell when we return to “normal” everywhere, however, normal will likely never be the same. Many impacts of the global pandemic will stay with us over the long term.
Visualizing How COVID-19 Antiviral Pills and Vaccines Work at the Cellular Level
Despite tackling the same disease, vaccines and antiviral pills work differently to combat COVID-19. We visualize how they work in the body.
Current Strategies to Tackle COVID-19
Since the pandemic started in 2020, a number of therapies have been developed to combat COVID-19.
The leading options for preventing infection include social distancing, mask-wearing, and vaccination. They are still recommended during the upsurge of the coronavirus’s latest mutation, the Omicron variant.
But in December 2021, The United States Food and Drug Administration (USDA) granted Emergency Use Authorization to two experimental pills for the treatment of new COVID-19 cases.
These medications, one made by Pfizer and the other by Merck & Co., hope to contribute to the fight against the coronavirus and its variants. Alongside vaccinations, they may help to curb extreme cases of COVID-19 by reducing the need for hospitalization.
Despite tackling the same disease, vaccines and pills work differently:
|Taken by injection||Taken by mouth|
|Used for prevention||Used for treatment only|
|Create an enhanced immune system by stimulating antibody production||Disrupt the assembly of new viral particles|
How a Vaccine Helps Prevent COVID-19
The main purpose of a vaccine is to prewarn the body of a potential COVID-19 infection by creating antibodies that target and destroy the coronavirus.
In order to do this, the immune system needs an antigen.
It’s difficult to do this risk-free since all antigens exist directly on a virus. Luckily, vaccines safely expose antigens to our immune systems without the dangerous parts of the virus.
In the case of COVID-19, the coronavirus’s antigen is the spike protein that covers its outer surface. Vaccines inject antigen-building instructions* and use our own cellular machinery to build the coronavirus antigen from scratch.
When exposed to the spike protein, the immune system begins to assemble antigen-specific antibodies. These antibodies wait for the opportunity to attack the real spike protein when a coronavirus enters the body. Since antibodies decrease over time, booster immunizations help to maintain a strong line of defense.
*While different vaccine technologies exist, they all do a similar thing: introduce an antigen and build a stronger immune system.
How COVID Antiviral Pills Work
Antiviral pills, unlike vaccines, are not a preventative strategy. Instead, they treat an infected individual experiencing symptoms from the virus.
These medications disrupt specific processes in the viral assembly line to choke the virus’s ability to replicate.
The Mechanism of Molnupiravir
RNA-dependent RNA Polymerase (RdRp) is a cellular component that works similar to a photocopying machine for the virus’s genetic instructions. An infected host cell is forced to produce RdRp, which starts generating more copies of the virus’s RNA.
Molnupiravir, developed by Merck & Co., is a polymerase inhibitor. It inserts itself into the viral instructions that RdRp is copying, jumbling the contents. The RdRp then produces junk.
The Mechanism of Nirmatrelvir + Ritonavir
A replicating virus makes proteins necessary for its survival in a large, clumped mass called a polyprotein. A cellular component called a protease cuts a virus’s polyprotein into smaller, workable pieces.
Pfizer’s antiviral medication is a protease inhibitor made of two pills:
- The first pill, nirmatrelvir, stops protease from cutting viral products into smaller pieces.
- The second pill, ritonavir, protects nirmatrelvir from destruction by the body and allows it to keep working.
With a faulty polymerase or a large, unusable polyprotein, antiviral medications make it difficult for the coronavirus to replicate. If treated early enough, they can lessen the virus’s impact on the body.
The Future of COVID Antiviral Pills and Medications
Antiviral medications seem to have a bright future ahead of them.
COVID-19 antivirals are based on early research done on coronaviruses from the 2002-04 SARS-CoV and the 2012 MERS-CoV outbreaks. Current breakthroughs in this technology may pave the way for better pharmaceuticals in the future.
One half of Pfizer’s medication, ritonavir, currently treats many other viruses including HIV/AIDS.
Gilead Science is currently developing oral derivatives of remdesivir, another polymerase inhibitor currently only offered to inpatients in the United States.
More coronavirus antivirals are currently in the pipeline, offering a glimpse of control on the looming presence of COVID-19.
Author’s Note: The medical information in this article is an information resource only, and is not to be used or relied on for any diagnostic or treatment purposes. Please talk to your doctor before undergoing any treatment for COVID-19. If you become sick and believe you may have symptoms of COVID-19, please follow the CDC guidelines.
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