Chart of the Week
Why the Spotify IPO is Both Unusual and Intriguing
Why the Spotify IPO is Both Unusual and Intriguing
The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.
On April 3, 2018, the music streaming service Spotify is expected to hit the public markets for the first time.
However, while IPOs are usually large, hype-driven spectacles that involve investment bankers and roadshows to financial institutions, the Spotify IPO is taking quite a different route. For a variety of reasons, this will make the Spotify IPO both an unusual and intriguing event for investors.
Here’s what’s interesting about the impending listing of the Sweden-based unicorn.
1. A Rare Breed
Despite the tech IPO being a legendary exit strategy among startup founders and venture capitalists, the reality is that today tech IPOs are few and far between.
By the same token, IPOs are also traditionally a way for investors to get a handle on market sentiment. With fewer tech IPOs on the books, it means that investors will look even closer to the Spotify IPO to try and gauge market frothiness.
2. An Unusual Listing
However, the Spotify IPO is not conventional in any respect.
The company was forced to IPO as a result of an impending deadline that would have entitled existing holders of convertible debt the option to “unwind” their transactions and get new convertible notes.
Further, the IPO uses an unconventional route to market – instead of the traditional investment bank and roadshow, Spotify is direct-listing its shares on the market from the pockets of existing shareholders. Based on current valuations, Spotify is the largest and highest-profile company to ever try this approach on an exchange in the United States.
On the plus side, Spotify reduces its costs by going this route. On the negative, it could lead to more volatility.
For better or worse, direct-listing shares places the company’s fate solely in the hands of John Q. Public.
3. An Upstream Battle
In 2017, Spotify shares sold for a vast range that places the company’s valuation somewhere between $6.3 billion to $20.9 billion. In a more recent private transaction, it put the valuation at closer to $23 billion.
If the company IPOs at $20 billion, as some experts expect, it’d make the Spotify IPO one of the five biggest tech listings of all-time. However, as today’s chart shows, the company still faces many challenges.
Apple, Amazon, Google, and Pandora will all remain fierce competitors, each with distinct advantages in the music market. Further, while Spotify has seen strong revenue growth, it’s also seen growing losses – and industry experts question whether the slim margins will ever amount to anything significant.
If Spotify can wrangle control of the music market and squeeze out better margins, while keeping its current growth trajectory, the Spotify IPO will be one to remember for a long time.
COVID-19
The Road to Recovery: Which Economies are Reopening?
We look at mobility rates as well as COVID-19 recovery rates for 41 economies, to see which countries are reopening for business.

The Road to Recovery: Which Economies are Reopening?
COVID-19 has brought the world to a halt—but after months of uncertainty, it seems that the situation is slowly taking a turn for the better.
Today’s chart measures the extent to which 41 major economies are reopening, by plotting two metrics for each country: the mobility rate and the COVID-19 recovery rate:
- Mobility Index
This refers to the change in activity around workplaces, subtracting activity around residences, measured as a percentage deviation from the baseline. - COVID-19 Recovery Rate
The number of recovered cases in a country is measured as the percentage of total cases.
Data for the first measure comes from Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports, which relies on aggregated, anonymous location history data from individuals. Note that China does not show up in the graphic as the government bans Google services.
COVID-19 recovery rates rely on values from CoronaTracker, using aggregated information from multiple global and governmental databases such as WHO and CDC.
Reopening Economies, One Step at a Time
In general, the higher the mobility rate, the more economic activity this signifies. In most cases, mobility rate also correlates with a higher rate of recovered people in the population.
Here’s how these countries fare based on the above metrics.
Country | Mobility Rate | Recovery Rate | Total Cases | Total Recovered |
---|---|---|---|---|
Argentina | -56% | 31.40% | 14,702 | 4,617 |
Australia | -41% | 92.03% | 7,150 | 6,580 |
Austria | -100% | 91.93% | 16,628 | 15,286 |
Belgium | -105% | 26.92% | 57,849 | 15,572 |
Brazil | -48% | 44.02% | 438,812 | 193,181 |
Canada | -67% | 52.91% | 88,512 | 46,831 |
Chile | -110% | 41.58% | 86,943 | 36,150 |
Colombia | -73% | 26.28% | 25,366 | 6,665 |
Czechia | -29% | 70.68% | 9,140 | 6,460 |
Denmark | -93% | 88.43% | 11,512 | 10,180 |
Finland | -93% | 81.57% | 6,743 | 5,500 |
France | -100% | 36.08% | 186,238 | 67,191 |
Germany | -99% | 89.45% | 182,452 | 163,200 |
Greece | -32% | 47.28% | 2,906 | 1,374 |
Hong Kong | -10% | 97.00% | 1,067 | 1,035 |
Hungary | -49% | 52.31% | 3,816 | 1,996 |
India | -65% | 42.88% | 165,386 | 70,920 |
Indonesia | -77% | 25.43% | 24,538 | 6,240 |
Ireland | -79% | 88.92% | 24,841 | 22,089 |
Israel | -31% | 87.00% | 16,872 | 14,679 |
Italy | -52% | 64.99% | 231,732 | 150,604 |
Japan | -33% | 84.80% | 16,683 | 14,147 |
Malaysia | -53% | 80.86% | 7,629 | 6,169 |
Mexico | -69% | 69.70% | 78,023 | 54,383 |
Netherlands | -97% | 0.01% | 45,950 | 3 |
New Zealand | -21% | 98.01% | 1,504 | 1,474 |
Norway | -100% | 91.87% | 8,411 | 7,727 |
Philippines | -87% | 23.08% | 15,588 | 3,598 |
Poland | -36% | 46.27% | 22,825 | 10,560 |
Portugal | -65% | 58.99% | 31,596 | 18,637 |
Singapore | -105% | 55.02% | 33,249 | 18,294 |
South Africa | -74% | 52.44% | 27,403 | 14,370 |
South Korea | -4% | 91.15% | 11,344 | 10,340 |
Spain | -67% | 69.11% | 284,986 | 196,958 |
Sweden | -93% | 13.91% | 35,727 | 4,971 |
Switzerland | -101% | 91.90% | 30,796 | 28,300 |
Taiwan | 4% | 95.24% | 441 | 420 |
Thailand | -36% | 96.08% | 3,065 | 2,945 |
U.S. | -56% | 28.20% | 1,768,346 | 498,720 |
United Kingdom | -82% | 0.05% | 269,127 | 135 |
Vietnam | 15% | 85.02% | 327 | 278 |
Mobility data as of May 21, 2020 (Latest available). COVID-19 case data as of May 29, 2020.
In the main scatterplot visualization, we’ve taken things a step further, assigning these countries into four distinct quadrants:
1. High Mobility, High Recovery
High recovery rates are resulting in lifted restrictions for countries in this quadrant, and people are steadily returning to work.
New Zealand has earned praise for its early and effective pandemic response, allowing it to curtail the total number of cases. This has resulted in a 98% recovery rate, the highest of all countries. After almost 50 days of lockdown, the government is recommending a flexible four-day work week to boost the economy back up.
2. High Mobility, Low Recovery
Despite low COVID-19 related recoveries, mobility rates of countries in this quadrant remain higher than average. Some countries have loosened lockdown measures, while others did not have strict measures in place to begin with.
Brazil is an interesting case study to consider here. After deferring lockdown decisions to state and local levels, the country is now averaging the highest number of daily cases out of any country. On May 28th, for example, the country had 24,151 new cases and 1,067 new deaths.
3. Low Mobility, High Recovery
Countries in this quadrant are playing it safe, and holding off on reopening their economies until the population has fully recovered.
Italy, the once-epicenter for the crisis in Europe is understandably wary of cases rising back up to critical levels. As a result, it has opted to keep its activity to a minimum to try and boost the 65% recovery rate, even as it slowly emerges from over 10 weeks of lockdown.
4. Low Mobility, Low Recovery
Last but not least, people in these countries are cautiously remaining indoors as their governments continue to work on crisis response.
With a low 0.05% recovery rate, the United Kingdom has no immediate plans to reopen. A two-week lag time in reporting discharged patients from NHS services may also be contributing to this low number. Although new cases are leveling off, the country has the highest coronavirus-caused death toll across Europe.
The U.S. also sits in this quadrant with over 1.7 million cases and counting. Recently, some states have opted to ease restrictions on social and business activity, which could potentially result in case numbers climbing back up.
Over in Sweden, a controversial herd immunity strategy meant that the country continued business as usual amid the rest of Europe’s heightened regulations. Sweden’s COVID-19 recovery rate sits at only 13.9%, and the country’s -93% mobility rate implies that people have been taking their own precautions.
COVID-19’s Impact on the Future
It’s important to note that a “second wave” of new cases could upend plans to reopen economies. As countries reckon with these competing risks of health and economic activity, there is no clear answer around the right path to take.
COVID-19 is a catalyst for an entirely different future, but interestingly, it’s one that has been in the works for a while.
Without being melodramatic, COVID-19 is like the last nail in the coffin of globalization…The 2008-2009 crisis gave globalization a big hit, as did Brexit, as did the U.S.-China trade war, but COVID is taking it to a new level.
—Carmen Reinhart, incoming Chief Economist for the World Bank
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