Which Countries Are Damaged Most by Low Oil Prices?
This week’s chart looks at costs per barrel, exports, and total oil production.
The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.
Oil is by far the world’s most-traded commodity, with $786.3 billion of crude changing hands in international trade in 2015.
While low commodity prices can hurt any major producer, oil prices can have a particularly detrimental effect on oil-rich economies. This is because, for better or worse, many of these economies hold onto oil as an anchor for achieving growth, filling government coffers, and even fueling social programs.
If those revenues don’t materialize as planned, these countries turn increasingly fragile. In the worst case scenario, an extended period of low oil prices can cause the fate of an entire regime to hang by a thread.
Which Countries are Damaged Most by Low Oil Prices?
This week’s chart explores three key pieces of high-level data on the oil sector from 2015: the cost of production ($/bbl), total oil production (MMbbl/day), and the world’s top exporters of oil ($).
The general effects of these factors are pretty straightforward:
- Countries that have a high cost of production per barrel are going to find it tough to make money in a low oil price environment
- Countries that are major producers or exporters tend to rely on oil revenues as a major economic driver
- Oil producers that are major exporters also have to deal with another factor: the effect that low oil prices may have on their currencies
Here are some particular countries that are under duress from current energy prices:
Back in the Hugo Chávez era, things were better in Venezuela than they are today. Oil prices were mostly sky-high, and this enabled the socialist country to bring down inequality as well as put food on the table for its citizens. However, as the World Bank described in 2012, since oil accounted for “96% of the country’s exports and nearly half of its fiscal revenue”, Venezuela was left “extremely vulnerable” to changes in oil prices.
And change they did. Oil prices are now less than 50% of what they were when the World Bank wrote the above commentary. Partially as a result, Venezuela is having all sorts of problems, ranging from runaway hyperinflation to shortages in almost everything.
Venezuela’s cost per barrel isn’t bad at $23.50, but the country is the world’s ninth-largest oil exporter with $27.8 billion of exports in 2015. If oil prices were north of $100/bbl, Venezuela’s situation would be a lot less dire.
Russia is the world’s second-largest crude oil exporter, shipping $86.2 billion to countries outside of its borders in 2015. That’s good for 11.0% of all oil exports globally. Russia’s cost of production in 2015 was relatively low, at $17.30 per barrel.
But is declining oil revenue influencing foreign policy? It’s hard to say – but we do know that, historically, leaders have turned to nationalist projects during tougher economic times. In this case, Putin may have focused Russia’s national attention on Ukraine as a way to deflect from a less-than-rosy economic outlook.
All is not well in Brazil, where President Dilma Rousseff could be impeached by as early as next week.
Brazil is the ninth-largest producer of oil globally, pumping out about 3.2 million barrels per day. However, a bigger concern may be the cost of producing oil in the country. The production cost in 2015 was a hefty $48.80/bbl, among the most expensive of major oil producers.
The post-Olympics hangover will be a challenging one in Brazil, as it faces its worst economic crisis in 30 years. The largest country in Latin America had its economy shrink 5.4% in the first quarter of this year.
Nigeria, which will soon be one of the three most populous countries in the world, is also very reliant on oil revenues to prop up its economy.
The country has a $7 billion budget deficit due to lower oil revenues, and it recently also dropped its peg to the U.S. dollar on June 15th. The naira fell 61% against the dollar since then, wreaking havoc throughout the economy. Nigeria also recently lost its title of “Africa’s largest economy”, handing it back to South Africa.
Nigeria is the sixth-largest exporter of oil, with annual exports of $38 billion in 2015. Its cost of production is higher than average, as well, at $31.50 per barrel.
Canada’s economy is largely diversified, but it is also the world’s fifth-largest exporter of oil with $50.2 billion of exports in 2015. Costs are also high in the oil sands, and the average cost of production per barrel was $41.10 throughout the country.
The oil bust has dragged the energy-rich province of Alberta into a recession, and the Canadian dollar is also severely impacted by oil prices for multiple reasons. Alberta’s economy is about to have its largest two-year contraction on record, while the provincial government’s deficit has exploded to $10.9 billion.
Energy investment in Alberta is forecast to be about half of the total from 2014. Meanwhile, economic conditions elsewhere have also been impacted, as areas such as housing, retail, labor markets, and manufacturing have all felt the pinch.
The Top 10 Biggest Companies in Brazil
What drives some of the world’s emerging economies? From natural resources to giant banks, here are the top 10 biggest companies in Brazil.
The Top 10 Biggest Companies in Brazil
In 2009, the at-the-time emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China held their first formal summits as members of BRIC (with South Africa joining in 2010).
Together, BRICS represents 26.7% of the world’s land surface and 41.5% of its population. By GDP ranking, they’re also some of the most powerful economies in the world.
But what drives their economies? We’re highlighting the top 10 biggest companies in each country, starting with Brazil.
What Are the Biggest Public Companies in Brazil?
Brazil isn’t just one of the largest and most diverse countries in the world, it is also an economic powerhouse.
With over 213 million people, Brazil is the sixth most populous country on Earth and the largest in Latin America. It’s also the wealthiest on the continent, with the world’s 12th-largest economy.
Once a colony focused on sugar and gold, Brazil rapidly industrialized in the 20th century. Today, it is a top 10 exporter of industrial steel, with the country’s economic strength coming chiefly from natural resources and financials.
Here are Brazil’s biggest public companies by market capitalization in October 2021:
|Top 10 Companies (October 2021)||Category||Market Cap (USD)|
|Vale||Metals and Mining||$73.03B|
|Petróleo Brasileiro||Oil and Gas||$69.84B|
|Banco Santander Brasil||Financial||$24.70B|
|Rede D’Or Sao Luiz||Hospital||$23.79B|
At the top of the ranking is Vale, a metals and mining giant that is the world’s largest producer of iron ore and nickel. Also the operator of infrastructure including hydroelectricity plants, railroads, and ports, It consistently ranks as the most valuable company in Latin America.
Vale and second-ranking company Petróleo Brasileiro, Brazil’s largest oil producer, were former state-owned corporations that became privatized in the 1990s.
Finance in Brazil’s Top 10 Biggest Companies
Other than former monopolies, the top 10 biggest companies in Brazil highlight the power of the banking sector.
Five of the 10 companies with a market cap above $20 billion are in the financial industry.
They include Itaú Unibanco, the largest bank in the Southern Hemisphere, and Banco Santander Brasil, the Brazilian subsidiary of Spanish finance corp.
Another well-known subsidiary is brewing company Ambev, which produces the majority of the country’s liquors and also bottles and distributes PepsiCo products in much of Latin America. Ambev is an important piece of Belgian drink juggernaut Anheuser-Busch InBev, which is one of the world’s largest 100 companies.
Noticeably missing from the top 10 list are companies in the agriculture sector, as Brazil is the world’s largest exporter of coffee, soybeans, beef, and ethanol. Many multinational corporations have Brazilian subsidiaries or partners for supply chain access, which has recently put a spotlight on Amazon deforestation.
What other companies or industries do you associate with Brazil?
Correction: Two companies listed had errors in their market cap calculations and have been updated. All data is as of October 11, 2021.
Which Countries Have the Most Nuclear Weapons?
How big is the world’s nuclear arsenal? Here are the stockpiles of the nine countries with nuclear weapons.
Which Countries Have the Most Nuclear Weapons?
In theory, nuclear weapon stockpiles are closely held national secrets. The leading countries have rough estimates that aren’t regularly updated, newly nuclear countries keep their capabilities vague and unclear, and Israel has never officially confirmed a nuclear weapons program.
But thanks to limited disclosures, records, and leaks, we can visualize the full extent* of the world’s nuclear arsenal. This graphic uses estimated nuclear warhead inventories from the Federation of American Scientists as of August 2021.
Based on these estimates, there are just nine countries with nuclear weapons in the world.
Editor’s note: Exact numbers of nuclear warheads possessed by countries are closely guarded state secrets, with the FAS estimate being the closest, most-used, and most-trusted international approximation available.
Nuclear Weapons, by Country
The nuclear arms race has always centered around the U.S. and Russia.
After the end of World War II and well into the Cold War, the world’s two superpowers raced to build more nuclear weapons (and more capable nuclear weapons) than the other.
Even while international organizations lobbied for the end of nuclear proliferation, the world’s nuclear weapon stockpile grew to a peak of 70,300 total warheads in 1986.
As arms agreements and non-proliferation treaties started to gain greater momentum, the U.S. and Russia cut back on stockpiles while new countries with nuclear weapons started to pop up.
|Country||Total Warheads (2021)||% of Total|
|🇰🇵 North Korea||45||0.34%|
Despite reducing their stockpiles significantly since the end of the Cold War, Russia and the U.S. still own around 90% of all nuclear warheads in the world.
Far behind them are China and France, which started testing nuclear weapons in 1964 and 1960 respectively. The UK has the fifth-most nuclear weapons today, though it was the third country in the world to develop them after the U.S. and Russia in 1952.
The countries with fewer than 200 nuclear weapons are regional rivals India and Pakistan, which first tested nuclear weapons in the 1970s, and North Korea, which began to operate uranium fabrication plants and conduct explosive tests in the 1980s.
Israel is also estimated to have fewer than 200 nuclear weapons, and reports have its weapons program dating back to the 1960s. However, the country has never confirmed or announced its nuclear capabilities.
Countries With Nuclear Weapons, by Warhead Status
Though the world has 13,132 nuclear weapons, that doesn’t mean they’re all ready to fire.
Weapons (or “warheads”) are delivered by missile, and countries don’t keep all of their nuclear warheads primed for use. The estimation of nuclear stockpiles also clarifies whether warheads are considered deployed, reserved, or retired:
- Deployed warheads are deployed on intercontinental missiles, at heavy bomber bases, and on bases with operational short-range delivery systems.
- Reserve warheads are in storage and not deployed on launchers.
- Retired warheads are still intact but in queue for dismantlement.
|Country||Deployed Warheads||Reserve Warheads||Retired Warheads|
|🇰🇵 North Korea||0||45||0|
Only four countries have officially deployed warheads, while the majority of the world’s nuclear stockpile is in reserve. This is partially due to estimates ranging from relatively transparent in the case of the U.S. to opaque and uncertain for countries like China and North Korea.
But some countries are expected to further bolster their stockpiles. The UK government announced it would increase its stockpile to no more than 260 warheads, and U.S. intelligence expects China, India, and Pakistan to increase their stockpiles.
Though the world’s nuclear stockpile will likely continue dwindling on account of U.S. and Russia retirements, the 2021 landscape of countries with nuclear weapons shows that proliferation is still underway.
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