Markets
Visualizing 30 Years of Investor Sentiment
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Visualizing Investor Sentiment Over 30 Years
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Sometimes investor sentiment garners attention because it provides a glimpse at how investors might behave. In this way, sentiment would influence their investment behavior, and in turn the wider stock market.
To be sure, the link between sentiment and the stock market is not linear. In fact, many consider extreme sentiment readings as a contrarian indicator. If sentiment swings sharply in one direction, some investors may consider this a signal to do the reverse.
This graphic shows 30 years of investor sentiment, based on data from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).
How is Investor Sentiment Measured?
The AAII survey shows bullish sentiment, indicated by the percentage of investors who think the stock market will be higher in six months. We charted the eight-week moving average for bullish sentiment to smooth out fluctuations and show broader trends.
When Investor Optimism Ran High
When has sentiment peaked over historical market cycles?
The highest bullish readings took place during 2004 and 2000 surrounding the Dotcom bubble. In January 2004, the bullish eight-week moving average hit records amid a U.S. economic rebound, spurred by low interest rates after stocks had tumbled for over two years.
Prior to this, at the height of the bubble in early 2000, investor optimism accelerated. This came after the Nasdaq posted 86% returns in 1999, as tech stocks soared. In 1999, 13 stocks in the index saw at least 1,000% returns. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index later hit a high in March 2000 before bursting, not fully recovering until 2015.
Investor sentiment later hit highs in January 2011, following surging stock market performance as the S&P 500 fully recovered losses from the 2008 crash in late 2010. This rebound would become the longest bull market in history.
More recently, bullish sentiment jumped in April 2021 as the Federal Reserve signaled that interest rates would stay near rock bottom. In April, the S&P 500 hit new highs, climbing over 80% from March 2020 lows.
Where Does Sentiment Stand Today?
This year, investor sentiment has improved compared to 2022, as investors hope that the Fed may wind down interest rate hikes.
Despite real U.S. GDP picking up 4.9% year-over-year in the third quarter, October’s inflation reading remained unchanged compared to the previous month, sitting at 3.2%. The S&P 500 has increased roughly 18% in 2023 to-date, as investor optimism improves.
Yet a separate survey shows that almost 70% of U.S. consumers think a recession is coming next year.
With the looming uncertainty on the direction of interest rates—given strong economic data potentially lifting inflation—investors and consumers appear to have mixed views on where the market is heading even as stocks look to be resilient so far.
Markets
The European Stock Market: Attractive Valuations Offer Opportunities
On average, the European stock market has valuations that are nearly 50% lower than U.S. valuations. But how can you access the market?
European Stock Market: Attractive Valuations Offer Opportunities
Europe is known for some established brands, from L’Oréal to Louis Vuitton. However, the European stock market offers additional opportunities that may be lesser known.
The above infographic, sponsored by STOXX, outlines why investors may want to consider European stocks.
Attractive Valuations
Compared to most North American and Asian markets, European stocks offer lower or comparable valuations.
Index | Price-to-Earnings Ratio | Price-to-Book Ratio |
---|---|---|
EURO STOXX 50 | 14.9 | 2.2 |
STOXX Europe 600 | 14.4 | 2 |
U.S. | 25.9 | 4.7 |
Canada | 16.1 | 1.8 |
Japan | 15.4 | 1.6 |
Asia Pacific ex. China | 17.1 | 1.8 |
Data as of February 29, 2024. See graphic for full index names. Ratios based on trailing 12 month financials. The price to earnings ratio excludes companies with negative earnings.
On average, European valuations are nearly 50% lower than U.S. valuations, potentially offering an affordable entry point for investors.
Research also shows that lower price ratios have historically led to higher long-term returns.
Market Movements Not Closely Connected
Over the last decade, the European stock market had low-to-moderate correlation with North American and Asian equities.
The below chart shows correlations from February 2014 to February 2024. A value closer to zero indicates low correlation, while a value of one would indicate that two regions are moving in perfect unison.
EURO STOXX 50 | STOXX EUROPE 600 | U.S. | Canada | Japan | Asia Pacific ex. China |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EURO STOXX 50 | 1.00 | 0.97 | 0.55 | 0.67 | 0.24 | 0.43 |
STOXX EUROPE 600 | 1.00 | 0.56 | 0.71 | 0.28 | 0.48 | |
U.S. | 1.00 | 0.73 | 0.12 | 0.25 | ||
Canada | 1.00 | 0.22 | 0.40 | |||
Japan | 1.00 | 0.88 | ||||
Asia Pacific ex. China | 1.00 |
Data is based on daily USD returns.
European equities had relatively independent market movements from North American and Asian markets. One contributing factor could be the differing sector weights in each market. For instance, technology makes up a quarter of the U.S. market, but health care and industrials dominate the broader European market.
Ultimately, European equities can enhance portfolio diversification and have the potential to mitigate risk for investors.
Tracking the Market
For investors interested in European equities, STOXX offers a variety of flagship indices:
Index | Description | Market Cap |
---|---|---|
STOXX Europe 600 | Pan-regional, broad market | €10.5T |
STOXX Developed Europe | Pan-regional, broad-market | €9.9T |
STOXX Europe 600 ESG-X | Pan-regional, broad market, sustainability focus | €9.7T |
STOXX Europe 50 | Pan-regional, blue-chip | €5.1T |
EURO STOXX 50 | Eurozone, blue-chip | €3.5T |
Data is as of February 29, 2024. Market cap is free float, which represents the shares that are readily available for public trading on stock exchanges.
The EURO STOXX 50 tracks the Eurozone’s biggest and most traded companies. It also underlies one of the world’s largest ranges of ETFs and mutual funds. As of November 2023, there were €27.3 billion in ETFs and €23.5B in mutual fund assets under management tracking the index.
“For the past 25 years, the EURO STOXX 50 has served as an accurate, reliable and tradable representation of the Eurozone equity market.”
— Axel Lomholt, General Manager at STOXX
Partnering with STOXX to Track the European Stock Market
Are you interested in European equities? STOXX can be a valuable partner:
- Comprehensive, liquid and investable ecosystem
- European heritage, global reach
- Highly sophisticated customization capabilities
- Open architecture approach to using data
- Close partnerships with clients
- Part of ISS STOXX and Deutsche Börse Group
With a full suite of indices, STOXX can help you benchmark against the European stock market.
Learn how STOXX’s European indices offer liquid and effective market access.
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