Markets

Is India the Next China? [Chart]

Published

9 years ago

June 25, 2015

Jeff Desjardins

Is India the Next China? [Chart]

The Chart of the Week is a weekly feature in Visual Capitalist on Fridays.

It’s no secret that the most recent bull market in commodities and global growth corresponded with the emergence of China on the world stage. When a country with over 1 billion people can grow at 10% for decades at a time, the power of compound interest starts to add up.

The only problem is that Chinese growth is starting to slow down. To start 2015, the world’s second-biggest economy grew at its slowest pace in six years at a clip of 7.0%, which was down from 7.3% in Q4 2014. Further, the rate of growth in investment, industrial production, and retail sales have been declining consistently over the last four years.

The world is looking for a new China to be the world’s growth engine. Does India fit the bill?

No one is denying that India has the potential to be a game-changer for the global economy. With 1.25 billion people and growing, India will be the most populous country in the world by 2028. The challenge is that the majority of people in the country are terribly poor (GDP per capita of US$1,500) and that the country’s bureaucracy strangles almost and all business endeavours. That said, there are recent economic and bureaucracy reform green shoots that show that India could at least temporarily swing out of its funk.

We did some back of the envelope calculations to see at what rate India would have to grow to be as significant to the world economy as China is today. We looked at India growing at high (10%), medium (7.5%), and low (5%) rates over the coming years. Based on this, India wouldn’t be comparable to today’s China until 21 years, 31 years, or 57 years respectively. (Note: to keep model simple, we had the rest of the world growing at a steady pace of 2%)

The end result shows the staggering power of compound interest: if India grows at a high rate similar to China over the last decades, India could be a world player in the coming decades. If growth is crippled by bureaucracy and it hovers around 5% on average, India won’t become the next China until way in our future: the year 2072.

On the bright side, Brazil may also be a good “bridge” for global growth. China certainly believes so, and that’s why they just announced an investment of $50 billion into the country’s infrastructure projects.

Related Topics:china india Brazil Growth GDP commodities chart bureaucracy

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Markets

The European Stock Market: Attractive Valuations Offer Opportunities

On average, the European stock market has valuations that are nearly 50% lower than U.S. valuations. But how can you access the market?

Graphics & Design

Alejandra Dander

An infographic showing that compared to North American and Asian stocks, the European stock market has lower or comparable valuations and low-to-moderate correlation.

European Stock Market: Attractive Valuations Offer Opportunities

Europe is known for some established brands, from L’Oréal to Louis Vuitton. However, the European stock market offers additional opportunities that may be lesser known.

The above infographic, sponsored by STOXX, outlines why investors may want to consider European stocks.

Attractive Valuations

Compared to most North American and Asian markets, European stocks offer lower or comparable valuations.

Index	Price-to-Earnings Ratio	Price-to-Book Ratio
EURO STOXX 50	14.9	2.2
STOXX Europe 600	14.4	2
U.S.	25.9	4.7
Canada	16.1	1.8
Japan	15.4	1.6
Asia Pacific ex. China	17.1	1.8

Data as of February 29, 2024. See graphic for full index names. Ratios based on trailing 12 month financials. The price to earnings ratio excludes companies with negative earnings.

On average, European valuations are nearly 50% lower than U.S. valuations, potentially offering an affordable entry point for investors.

Research also shows that lower price ratios have historically led to higher long-term returns.

Market Movements Not Closely Connected

Over the last decade, the European stock market had low-to-moderate correlation with North American and Asian equities.

The below chart shows correlations from February 2014 to February 2024. A value closer to zero indicates low correlation, while a value of one would indicate that two regions are moving in perfect unison.

	EURO STOXX 50	STOXX EUROPE 600	U.S.	Canada	Japan	Asia Pacific ex. China
EURO STOXX 50	1.00	0.97	0.55	0.67	0.24	0.43
STOXX EUROPE 600		1.00	0.56	0.71	0.28	0.48
U.S.			1.00	0.73	0.12	0.25
Canada				1.00	0.22	0.40
Japan					1.00	0.88
Asia Pacific ex. China						1.00

Data is based on daily USD returns.

European equities had relatively independent market movements from North American and Asian markets. One contributing factor could be the differing sector weights in each market. For instance, technology makes up a quarter of the U.S. market, but health care and industrials dominate the broader European market.

Ultimately, European equities can enhance portfolio diversification and have the potential to mitigate risk for investors.

Tracking the Market

For investors interested in European equities, STOXX offers a variety of flagship indices:

Index	Description	Market Cap
STOXX Europe 600	Pan-regional, broad market	€10.5T
STOXX Developed Europe	Pan-regional, broad-market	€9.9T
STOXX Europe 600 ESG-X	Pan-regional, broad market, sustainability focus	€9.7T
STOXX Europe 50	Pan-regional, blue-chip	€5.1T
EURO STOXX 50	Eurozone, blue-chip	€3.5T

Data is as of February 29, 2024. Market cap is free float, which represents the shares that are readily available for public trading on stock exchanges.

The EURO STOXX 50 tracks the Eurozone’s biggest and most traded companies. It also underlies one of the world’s largest ranges of ETFs and mutual funds. As of November 2023, there were €27.3 billion in ETFs and €23.5B in mutual fund assets under management tracking the index.

“For the past 25 years, the EURO STOXX 50 has served as an accurate, reliable and tradable representation of the Eurozone equity market.”
— Axel Lomholt, General Manager at STOXX

Partnering with STOXX to Track the European Stock Market

Are you interested in European equities? STOXX can be a valuable partner:

Comprehensive, liquid and investable ecosystem
European heritage, global reach
Highly sophisticated customization capabilities
Open architecture approach to using data
Close partnerships with clients
Part of ISS STOXX and Deutsche Börse Group

With a full suite of indices, STOXX can help you benchmark against the European stock market.

Learn how STOXX’s European indices offer liquid and effective market access.

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