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Puerto Rico’s Debts Are “Not Payable” According to Governor

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Puerto Rico's Debts Are

Puerto Rico’s Debts Are “Not Payable” According to Governor

The global economy has been walking a tightrope for some time. Zero interest-rate policies, slow economic growth, and mounting debt means zero room for error.

Puerto Rico is the latest jurisdiction to toss in the towel, with Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla warning that the island is perilously close to falling into a “death spiral”.

“The debt is not payable… there is no other option. This is not politics, this is math,” Garcia Padilla told the New York Times. “But we have to make the economy grow. If not, we will be in a death spiral.”

Puerto Rico, as you can see in the above chart published by the WSJ, has been in a tricky situation for some time. It’s $72 billion of debt for an island of roughly 3.5 million is equal to 70% of economic output. This is a ratio that is at least three times higher than the next highest state or territory in the United States.

The territory, which was ceded to the United States after the Spanish-American War, has been in trouble for awhile. The population growth rate has slowed, emigration is at record levels, and per-capita GDP has dropped over the last decade. Puerto Rico has relied on debt to try to grow the economy, and now credit-rating companies expect the first default to occur this week from the island’s electricity provider, which borrowed $9 billion. Further, the territory has been issuing new debt to pay old debt, and now the government is expected to run out of cash in July.

The Puerto Rico scenario encapsulates the current challenge that the rest of the world faces. Central Banks have pulled out all the stops to try to get growth: QE, increased borrowing, ZIRP, and ongoing currency wars. However, if that growth doesn’t come at the rate needed to get the ball rolling, it makes the debt harder to service. The more leverage, the higher the stakes are. Then all that is needed is one catalyst and things can get ugly fast.

Speaking of defaults: here’s what will happen if Greece defaults, and here is a breakdown of their debt.

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Mapped: Inflation Projections by Country, in 2024

Global inflation projections look optimistic in 2024, but risks of a second wave of price pressures remain due to geopolitical shocks.

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This map shows inflation projections around the world in 2024.

Inflation Projections, by Country in 2024

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Global economic prospects hang on a delicate balance, largely hinging on the path of inflation.

While inflation looks to be easing, there remains the risk of a second wave of price pressures driven by geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions in the Red Sea. Adding to this, a stronger than expected labor market could drive consumer demand, pushing up higher prices.

This graphic shows 2024 inflation projections around the world, based on forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

 

 

Is Global Inflation On a Downward Path?

In 2024, global inflation is projected to decline to 5.8%, down from a 6.8% estimated annual average in 2023.

Tighter monetary policy and falling energy prices are forecast to dampen price pressures alongside a cooling labor market. Below, we show inflation projections across 190 countries:

CountryProjected Annual Inflation Change 2024
🇻🇪 Venezuela230.0%
🇿🇼 Zimbabwe190.2%
🇸🇩 Sudan127.3%
🇦🇷 Argentina69.5%
🇹🇷 Türkiye54.3%
🇪🇬 Egypt25.9%
🇦🇴 Angola25.6%
🇮🇷 Iran25.0%
🇧🇮 Burundi22.4%
🇸🇱 Sierra Leone21.7%
🇸🇷 Suriname20.0%
🇪🇹 Ethiopia18.5%
🇵🇰 Pakistan17.5%
🇳🇬 Nigeria15.4%
🇲🇼 Malawi15.2%
🇬🇭 Ghana15.0%
🇾🇪 Yemen15.0%
🇲🇳 Mongolia12.8%
🇭🇹 Haiti12.7%
🇺🇿 Uzbekistan10.7%
🇹🇳 Tunisia10.6%
🇹🇲 Turkmenistan10.0%
🇺🇦 Ukraine10.0%
🇲🇬 Madagascar8.6%
🇰🇬 Kyrgyz Republic8.0%
🇿🇲 Zambia7.9%
🇲🇺 Mauritius7.8%
🇬🇳 Guinea7.8%
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan7.5%
🇧🇩 Bangladesh7.2%
🇲🇲 Myanmar7.2%
🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe7.2%
🇬🇲 The Gambia7.1%
🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of the Congo7.1%
🇩🇿 Algeria6.8%
🇹🇯 Tajikistan6.5%
🇳🇵 Nepal6.5%
🇰🇪 Kenya6.5%
🇲🇿 Mozambique6.5%
🇹🇴 Tonga6.2%
🇸🇸 South Sudan6.1%
🇱🇷 Liberia6.0%
🇺🇾 Uruguay5.7%
🇻🇺 Vanuatu5.6%
🇵🇱 Poland5.5%
🇬🇾 Guyana5.5%
🇷🇼 Rwanda5.5%
🇭🇺 Hungary5.4%
🇳🇦 Namibia5.3%
🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea5.2%
🇧🇹 Bhutan5.1%
🇦🇿 Azerbaijan5.0%
🇯🇲 Jamaica5.0%
🇱🇸 Lesotho5.0%
🇲🇩 Moldova5.0%
🇷🇺 Russia5.0%
🇺🇬 Uganda5.0%
🇳🇮 Nicaragua4.8%
🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea4.7%
🇷🇴 Romania4.7%
🇬🇹 Guatemala4.6%
🇼🇸 Samoa4.5%
🇿🇦 South Africa4.5%
🇸🇰 Slovak Republic4.5%
🇨🇴 Colombia4.5%
🇮🇳 India4.4%
🇧🇼 Botswana4.4%
🇸🇿 Eswatini4.3%
🇱🇻 Latvia4.3%
🇭🇳 Honduras4.2%
🇳🇷 Nauru4.2%
🇧🇪 Belgium4.0%
🇮🇸 Iceland4.0%
🇹🇿 Tanzania4.0%
🇰🇮 Kiribati4.0%
🇲🇷 Mauritania4.0%
🇵🇾 Paraguay4.0%
🇷🇸 Serbia4.0%
🇩🇴 Dominican Republic4.0%
🇦🇲 Armenia4.0%
🇧🇷 Brazil3.9%
🇸🇴 Somalia3.9%
🇹🇻 Tuvalu3.8%
🇧🇴 Bolivia3.8%
🇧🇾 Belarus3.7%
🇨🇲 Cameroon3.7%
🇽🇰 Kosovo3.7%
🇪🇪 Estonia3.6%
🇧🇧 Barbados3.6%
🇸🇧 Solomon Islands3.6%
🇦🇱 Albania3.6%
🇦🇺 Australia3.4%
🇪🇸 Spain3.4%
🇵🇭 Philippines3.4%
🇻🇳 Vietnam3.4%
🇲🇦 Morocco3.3%
🇸🇮 Slovenia3.3%
🇦🇹 Austria3.2%
🇭🇷 Croatia3.2%
🇨🇬 Republic of Congo3.2%
🇳🇴 Norway3.2%
🇸🇬 Singapore3.2%
🇲🇽 Mexico3.2%
🇹🇩 Chad3.1%
🇲🇪 Montenegro3.1%
🇱🇹 Lithuania3.1%
🇨🇷 Costa Rica3.0%
🇰🇭 Cambodia3.0%
🇮🇹 Italy3.0%
🇨🇱 Chile3.0%
🇬🇪 Georgia3.0%
🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau3.0%
🇮🇶 Iraq3.0%
🇱🇦 Lao P.D.R.3.0%
🇫🇲 Micronesia3.0%
🇩🇲 Dominica2.9%
🇸🇪 Sweden2.8%
🇩🇪 Germany2.8%
🇬🇷 Greece2.7%
🇲🇾 Malaysia2.7%
🇮🇪 Ireland2.6%
🇯🇵 Japan2.6%
🇫🇯 Fiji2.6%
🇲🇭 Marshall Islands2.6%
🇬🇩 Grenada2.6%
🇺🇸 United States2.6%
🇵🇹 Portugal2.6%
🇮🇱 Israel2.6%
🇧🇸 The Bahamas2.6%
🇯🇴 Jordan2.6%
🇱🇾 Libya2.5%
🇳🇿 New Zealand2.5%
🇧🇯 Benin2.5%
🇩🇰 Denmark2.5%
🇩🇯 Djibouti2.5%
🇸🇲 San Marino2.5%
🇹🇱 Timor-Leste2.5%
🇮🇩 Indonesia2.5%
🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda2.5%
🇳🇪 Niger2.5%
🇨🇫 Central African Republic2.5%
🇵🇸 West Bank and Gaza2.5%
🇲🇻 Maldives2.4%
🇲🇹 Malta2.4%
🇳🇱 Netherlands2.4%
🇸🇨 Seychelles2.4%
🇬🇧 United Kingdom2.4%
🇬🇦 Gabon2.4%
🇰🇳 St. Kitts and Nevis2.3%
🇭🇰 Hong Kong SAR2.3%
🇲🇰 North Macedonia2.3%
🇦🇪 UAE2.3%
🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago2.3%
🇶🇦 Qatar2.3%
🇵🇦 Panama2.2%
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia2.2%
🇵🇪 Peru2.2%
🇨🇾 Cyprus2.2%
🇨🇿 Czech Republic2.2%
🇹🇬 Togo2.2%
🇧🇬 Bulgaria2.2%
🇦🇼 Aruba2.2%
🇨🇦 Canada2.1%
🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina2.1%
🇱🇨 St. Lucia2.1%
🇦🇩 Andorra2.0%
🇧🇫 Burkina Faso2.0%
🇨🇻 Cabo Verde2.0%
🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire2.0%
🇰🇷 Korea2.0%
🇲🇱 Mali2.0%
🇻🇨 St. Vincent and the Grenadines2.0%
🇨🇭 Switzerland1.9%
🇵🇷 Puerto Rico1.9%
🇨🇳 China1.9%
🇫🇮 Finland1.9%
🇫🇷 France1.9%
🇹🇼 Taiwan1.8%
🇵🇼 Palau1.8%
🇹🇭 Thailand1.8%
🇱🇺 Luxembourg1.7%
🇸🇻 El Salvador1.7%
🇲🇴 Macao SAR1.7%
🇴🇲 Oman1.7%
🇰🇲 Comoros1.6%
🇧🇳 Brunei Darussalam1.5%
🇪🇨 Ecuador1.5%
🇧🇭 Bahrain1.4%
🇧🇿 Belize1.2%
🇸🇳 Senegal0.3%

Venezuela, with the largest oil reserves globally, is projected to see inflation reach 230%—the highest overall.

Across the last decade, the country has faced hyperinflation, reaching a stunning 10 million percent in 2019. Since U.S. sanctions were lifted last year, inflation has fallen dramatically due to sharp cuts in government spending and increasing dollarization of the economy, which is bolstering the bolivar.

In America, slower economic growth coupled with a softening labor market could ease inflation, which is forecast to reach 2.6% in 2024. While the Federal Reserve has signaled that the worst is over, unexpected momentum across the economy could cloud the outcome. As of November 2023, $290 billion in excess savings were held across American households, which may continue to spur consumer demand.

Over in Europe, inflation is anticipated to average 3.3% across advanced economies. Today, sinking natural gas prices and low GDP growth are keeping inflation expectations at bay.

China, the world’s second-largest economy, is contending with falling prices due to property market trouble, which drives about a third of the country’s economic growth. Amid sluggish economic activity, a manufacturing slowdown, and low consumer confidence, inflation is forecast to reach 1.7%.

What Could Cause Inflation to Re-Accelerate?

While inflation shocks driven from the pandemic appear to be over, key risks could drive up inflation:

  • Geopolitical Pressures: Rising shipping costs due to the conflict in the Middle East and Red Sea could continue to escalate and energy prices could increase amid disrupted supply, driving inflation higher.
  • Strong Consumer Demand: Accumulated excess savings could continue to fuel economies, leading central banks to remain hawkish. Persistently high wage growth—which increased about double the pre-pandemic average across advanced nations in 2023—could boost consumption and higher prices.
  • Rising Housing Costs: Shelter makes up about a third of the Consumer Price Index, the biggest component overall. If prices accelerate, it presents key inflationary risks. As of January 2024, U.S. shelter costs increased 6% annually.

So far, the global economy has been resilient. While risk factors remain, inflation projections suggest that the path towards a 2% target is slow, but going in the right direction.

 

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