The Golden Triangle
In a hidden corner of Northwestern Canada lies some of the world’s most significant mineral potential.
Billions of dollars of undiscovered gold, silver, and copper still sit within an unexplored area that was once remote. However, only now can these world-class deposits be finally tapped.
Skeena Resources has generously helped us to put together the story of the famed Golden Triangle.
The History of the Golden Triangle
Even before Canada was officially a country, the area now known as the Golden Triangle was a hub for prospectors looking to strike it rich.
In 1861, Alexander “Buck” Choquette struck gold at the confluence of the Stikine and Anuk Rivers, kickstarting the Stikine Gold Rush. More than 800 prospectors left Victoria to go to the Stikine in search of gold.
A few short years later, an even more significant rush would occur just to the north in the Cassiar region – it’s where British Columbia’s biggest ever gold nugget, weighing in at 73 ounces, would be found. The Atlin Gold Rush, an offshoot of the world-famous Klondike Gold Rush, would also occur just north of the Triangle.
The First Discoveries
The companies that first worked in the Golden Triangle balanced its richness against the costs of its remote location.
1. Premier Gold Mine
The first big discovery in the Golden Triangle was at the Premier Gold Mine, which started operations in 1918.
The company that first owned it, Premier Gold Mining Company, returned as much as 200% on the stock market between 1921 and 1923. At the time the Christian Science Monitor called it “One of the greatest silver and gold mines in the world.”
2. Snip Mine
Discovered in 1964 by Cominco, the deposit stayed dormant until 1986, when it was drilled in a joint venture with Delaware Resources. Murray Pezim’s Prime Resources bought out Delaware after the stock ran from a dollar to $28 a share.
The high-grade Snip mine produced approximately one million ounces of gold from 1991 until 1999 at an average gold grade of 27.5 g/t.
3. Eskay Creek
In 1988, after a 109 drill holes, tiny exploration companies Stikine Resources and Calpine Resources finally hit the hole they needed at Eskay Creek: 27.2 g/t Au and 30.2 g/t Ag over 208m.
Eskay would go on to become Canada’s highest-grade gold mine and the world’s fifth largest silver producer, with production well in excess of 3 million ounces of gold and 160 million ounces of silver.
Gold: 49 g/t
Silver: 2,406 g/t
By the time it was all said and done, the stock price of Stikine Resources would go from $1 to $67, after it was bought by International Corona.
Why did these three rich mines shut down?
Despite the gold in the Triangle being extremely high grade, lower gold prices in the late 90s made the economics challenging. Meanwhile, the lack of infrastructure in this remote area of Canada meant that power, labor, and logistics costs were sky high.
Both of these things have changed today, and activity at the Golden Triangle is now fast and furious.
Gaining Access to the Triangle
The Golden Triangle is a hot area for exploration again. This is for three main reasons: higher gold prices, new infrastructure, and modern discoveries.
Higher gold prices
Average gold price (1999): $279 (Adjusted for inflation: $398)
Average gold price (2016): $1202
Gold prices are more than 3x as high today, even after adjusting for inflation. Combined with the Golden Triangle’s high grades, this becomes even more attractive.
Today, road access to the area is easier than ever, and a new transmission line will dramatically reduce the cost of power for companies operating in the Triangle.
- Completion of a $700 million high-voltage transmission line to the Golden Triangle. The Northwest Transmission Line goes 335km from Terrace to Bob Quinn Lake, and north to the Red Chris mine
- Paving of the Stewart-Cassiar highway north from Smithers (Hwy 37)
- Opening of ocean port facilities for export of concentrate in Stewart
- Completion of a three dam, 277 MW hydroelectric facility located 70km northwest of Stewart
With new infrastructure in tow, the Golden Triangle is now open for business.
The next gold rush at the Golden Triangle has already started.
Just some of the new discoveries in the area include Seabridge’s KSM project, Pretium’s Valley of the Kings deposit, and Imperial Metal’s Red Chris mine.
Yet, despite this track record of new discoveries and mines being built in the area, a British Columbia government report estimates that only 0.0006% of the Golden Triangle has been mined to date.
The World’s Gold and Silver Coin Production vs. Money Creation
In 2019, the value of global money creation was over 500 times higher than the world’s gold and silver coin production combined.
Global Gold & Silver Coin Production vs. Money Creation
Note: Data has been updated to correct a previous calculation error pertaining to Japanese Yen money supply.
Both precious metals and cash serve as safe haven assets, intended to limit losses during market turmoil. However, while modern currencies can be printed by central governments, precious metals derive value from their scarcity.
In this infographic from Texas Precious Metals, we compare the value of the world’s gold and silver coin production to global money creation.
Total Production Per Person, 2019
We calculated the value of global currency issuance in 2019 as well as precious metal coins minted, and divided by the global population to get total production per person.
Throughout, global money supply is a proxy based on the 5 largest reserve currencies: the U.S. dollar, Euro, Japanese Yen, Sterling Pound, and Chinese Renminbi.
|2019 Production||Ounces||Dollar Value||Dollar Value Per Person|
|Global Gold Coins||7,204,982||$10.9B||$1.42|
|Global Silver Coins||97,900,000||$1.8B||$0.23|
|Global Money Supply||$4.3T||$556.33|
All numbers are in USD according to exchange rates as of December 31 2019. Gold and silver values are based on the 2019 year close price of $1,510.60 and $17.90 respectively.
The value of new global money supply was 390 times higher than the value of gold coins minted, and 2,400 times higher than silver coins minted.
Put another way, for each ounce of minted gold coin, the global money supply increased by more than $593,000.
Change in Annual Production, 2019 vs. 2010
Compared to the start of the decade, here’s how annual production levels have changed:
|Global Silver Coins (oz)||95,900,000||97,900,000||2.1%|
|Global Gold Coins (oz)||6,298,331||7,204,982||14.4%|
|Global Money Supply (USD)||$2,936,296,692,440||$4,268,993,639,926||45.4%|
Annual increases to global money supply have increased by half, far outpacing the change in the world’s gold and silver coin production.
Even more recently, how has production changed during the COVID-19 pandemic?
The COVID-19 Effect
In response to the global pandemic, central banks have enacted numerous measures to help support economies—including issuing new currency.
The global money supply increased by more than $6.8 trillion in the first half of 2020. In fact, the value of printed currency was 930 times higher than the value of minted gold coins over the same timeframe.
Investors may want to consider which asset is more vulnerable to inflation as they look to protect their portfolios.
Want to learn more? See the U.S. version of this graphic.
Visualizing U.S. Money Supply vs. Precious Metal Production in the COVID-19 Era
Amid trillions in COVID-19 stimulus, this graphic compares new U.S. dollars printed to U.S. precious metal coin production.
U.S. Precious Metal Coin Production in the COVID-19 Era
Gold and silver have played an important role in money throughout history. Unlike modern currencies, they can’t be created out of thin air and derive value from their scarcity.
In the COVID-19 era, this difference has become more prominent as countries print vast amounts of currency to support their suffering economies. This graphic from Texas Precious Metals highlights how the value of U.S. precious metal coin production compares to U.S. money creation.
Year to Date Production
In this infographic, we have calculated the value of money supply added as well as bullion minted, and divided it by the U.S. population to get total production per person. Here’s how the January-September 2020 data breaks down:
|Total (Ounces)||Dollar Value||Dollar Value Per Person|
|U.S. Gold Ounces||826,000||$1.6B||$4.79|
|U.S. Silver Ounces||22,261,500||$544M||$1.65|
|U.S. Money Supply||$3.4T||$10,250.16|
Gold and silver dollar values based on Oct 5, 2020 spot prices of $1,915.93 and $24.47 respectively.
The value of new U.S. money supply was more than 2,100 times higher than the value of new gold minted. Compared to minted silver, the value of new U.S. money supply was over 6,000 times higher.
Production Per Day, Per State Over Time
Here’s how production has changed on a per day, per state basis since 2010:
|2010||2020 YTD (Jan-Sep)||Min-Max Production, 2010-2019|
|Minted Gold Coins||78oz||61oz||12oz-78oz|
|Minted Silver Coins||1,945oz||1,631oz||899oz-2,633oz|
Year to date, U.S. precious metal coin production is within a normal historical range. If production were to continue at the current rate through December, gold would be above historical norms at 81 ounces and silver would be within the normal range at 2,175 ounces.
The issuance of U.S. dollars tells a different story. Over the last nine months, the U.S. has already added 400% more dollars to its money supply than it did in the entirety of 2019—and there’s still three months left to go in the year.
A Macroeconomic View
Of course, current economic conditions have been a catalyst for the ballooning money supply. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. government has issued over $3 trillion in fiscal stimulus. In turn, the U.S. Federal Reserve has increased the money supply by $3.4 trillion from January to September 2020.
Put another way, for every ounce of gold created in 2020 there has been $4 million U.S. dollars added to the money supply.
The question for those looking for safe haven investments is: which of these will ultimately hold their value better?
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