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A Timeline of Failed Tech Predictions

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A Timeline of Failed Tech Predictions

A Timeline of Failed Tech Predictions

In the realm of technology, predictions about the future are famously hard to make.

Technology evolves at a logarithmic pace. Even small incremental changes over time can compound to create an entirely different business reality in the future. Entire industries can be created or changed out of nowhere, as companies go from “zero to one”, as Peter Thiel might say.

Today’s infographic celebrates those that were in positions of strength that were brave enough (or foolish enough) to make bold predictions about the future of technology. Failed predictions are made from a variety of people including economist Paul Krugman, the President of IBM, the co-founder of Youtube, a Roman Senator, and the co-founder of Warner Brothers.

We do note, however, that this infographic is missing our favorite failed tech prediction of all time made by Ken Olsen, the founder of Digital Equipment Corp., in a 1977 speech to the World Future Society:

There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.

It’s important to realize that this was made after the first personal computers were released. It was in 1975 that the original personal computer came out, and Apple released its Apple I computer in 1976. The following year, Apple released the now famous Apple II and Commodore put out the PET, a precursor to the Commodore 64.

The Apple II product line, by the way, sold close to six million computers by the time it was discontinued. Today, even the amount of “things” connected to the internet is predicted to reach 50 billion by 2020.

Original graphic by: SSLs

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Technology

Charted: The Jobs Most Impacted by AI

We visualized the results of an analysis by the World Economic Forum, which uncovered the jobs most impacted by AI.

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Charted: The Jobs Most Impacted by AI

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Large language models (LLMs) and other generative AI tools haven’t been around for very long, but they’re expected to have far-reaching impacts on the way people do their jobs. With this in mind, researchers have already begun studying the potential impacts of this transformative technology.

In this graphic, we’ve visualized the results of a World Economic Forum report, which estimated how different job departments will be exposed to AI disruption.

Data and Methodology

To identify the job departments most impacted by AI, researchers assessed over 19,000 occupational tasks (e.g. reading documents) to determine if they relied on language. If a task was deemed language-based, it was then determined how much human involvement was needed to complete that task.

With this analysis, researchers were then able to estimate how AI would impact different occupational groups.

DepartmentLarge impact (%)Small impact (%)No impact (%)
IT73261
Finance70219
Customer Sales671617
Operations651817
HR57412
Marketing56413
Legal46504
Supply Chain431839

In our graphic, large impact refers to tasks that will be fully automated or significantly altered by AI technologies. Small impact refers to tasks that have a lesser potential for disruption.

Where AI will make the biggest impact

Jobs in information technology (IT) and finance have the highest share of tasks expected to be largely impacted by AI.

Within IT, tasks that are expected to be automated include software quality assurance and customer support. On the finance side, researchers believe that AI could be significantly useful for bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing.

Still interested in AI? Check out this graphic which ranked the most commonly used AI tools in 2023.

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