Markets

The ECB’s Big Bazookas (TLTRO & QE)

Published

9 years ago

December 3, 2014

Jeff Desjardins

The ECB's Big Bazooka

The ECB’s Big Bazookas (TLTRO & QE)

The Eurozone is on the rocks again. In November, business activity fell to its lowest point in 16 months as the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dropped to 51.1. The Euro is at a 27 month low against the dollar. Unemployment is stuck at 11.5%.

Making matters worse, deflation is also knocking on the door. In November, prices rose just 0.3% from the previous year, which is far below the 2% target. Nicholas Spiro, managing director of Spiro Sovereign Strategy in London, says, “the data show(s) that the Japanification of the Eurozone remains apace.”

To combat this, The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to pull out the big guns. The first big gun, in some of the best “Fedspeak” we’ve seen yet is called Targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTRO). Banks are able to borrow from the ECB at very low rates if the money is eventually lent to companies, and not for mortgages or buying government debt.

However, since the TLTROs started, results have not been as the ECB has hoped. This is why Mario Draghi and his counterparts have hinted at a bigger bazooka, quantitative easing (QE), over the last few weeks. Tomorrow (Dec 4th) they may decide to finally pull the trigger at the ECB meeting, but some feel that is premature.

“Much like an elementary school student putting off their weekend homework in hopes of a ‘miracle’ snow day canceling school on Monday, the ECB can still hang it’s hopes on the mid-December TLTRO auction as a possible savior,” said Matt Weller, senior technical analyst at Forex.com, in a note.

Original graphic from: Saxo Markets

The World’s Fastest Growing Emerging Markets (2024-2029 Forecast)

Here are the emerging markets with the fastest projected growth rates over the next five years based on analysis from the IMF.

Published

53 mins ago

May 2, 2024

Niccolo Conte

This bar chart shows the fastest growing emerging markets in the world between 2024 and 2029.

The World’s Fastest Growing Emerging Markets (2024-2029)

Large emerging markets are forecast to play a greater role in powering global economic growth in the future, driven by demographic shifts and a growing consumer class.

At the same time, many smaller nations are projected to see their economies grow at double the global average over the next five years due to rich natural resource deposits among other factors. That said, elevated debt levels do present risks to future economic activity.

This graphic shows the emerging markets with the fastest projected growth through to 2029, based on data from the International Monetary Fund’s 2024 World Economic Outlook.

Get the Key Insights of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook

Want a visual breakdown of the insights from the IMF’s 2024 World Economic Outlook report?

This visual is part of a special dispatch of the key takeaways exclusively for VC+ members.

Get the full dispatch of charts by signing up to VC+.

Top 10 Emerging Markets

Here are the fastest-growing emerging economies, based on real GDP compound annual growth rate (CAGR) forecasts over the period of 2024-2029:

Rank	Country	Projected CAGR (2024-2029)
1	🇬🇾 Guyana	19.8%
2	🇲🇿 Mozambique	7.9%
3	🇷🇼 Rwanda	7.2%
4	🇧🇩 Bangladesh	6.8%
5	🇪🇹 Ethiopia	6.7%
6	🇳🇪 Niger	6.7%
7	🇺🇬 Uganda	6.6%
8	🇮🇳 India	6.5%
9	🇻🇳 Vietnam	6.4%
10	🇸🇳 Senegal	6.3%

As South America’s third-smallest nation by land area, Guyana is projected to be the world’s fastest growing economy from now to 2029.

This is thanks to a significant discovery of oil deposits in 2015 by ExxonMobil, which has propelled the country’s economy to grow by fourfold over the last five years alone. By 2028, the nation of just 800,000 people is projected to have the highest crude oil production per capita, outpacing Kuwait for the first time.

Bangladesh, where 85% of exports are driven by the textiles industry, is forecast to see the strongest growth in Asia. In fact, over the last 30 years, the country of 170 million people has not had a single year of negative growth.

In eighth place overall is India, projected to achieve a 6.5% CAGR in real GDP through to 2029. This growth is forecast to be fueled by population trends, public investment, and strong consumer demand.