population
Charted: The Rapid Decline of Global Birth Rates
Charted: The Rapid Decline in Global Birth Rates
In 1798, British economist Thomas Malthus proposed a groundbreaking theory now known as the “Malthusian Trap”—suggesting that human population growth is exponential and thus would outpace the linear growth of resources such as food supply.
He worried that this runaway population growth would become unsustainable, eventually relying on sudden shock events—wars, disasters, famines—to reset the population to more sustainable levels. And over the next 200 years, the world population skyrocketed from 1 billion to 8 billion people on the planet.
However, as it turns out, no such shock events were required to turn the tide of population growth. Instead, it’s been rapidly declining birth rates across the world that seem to be leading to an unthinkable outcome for Malthus: a gradually plateauing or even shrinking global population.
In the visualization above, Pablo Alvarez has visualized the crude birth rate for the 49 most populous countries of the world in 2021, using data from the UN’s World Population Prospects 2022 to examine changes since 1950.
Understanding Birth Rates vs Fertility Rates
Birth rates are commonly measured using a metric called the “crude birth rate” (CBR), which represents the number of live births per 1,000 individuals in a given population during a specific period—usually one year.
The measured decline in CBR is also a result of plummeting fertility rates across the globe. Not to be confused with birth rates, fertility rates measure how many children a woman will have over the course of her lifetime.
While a country’s birth rate is directly impacted by the fertility rate, it also takes into account other factors: population size, age structure of the population, access to contraception, cultural norms, government policies, and socioeconomic conditions.
Birth Rates of the Most Populated Countries
Here’s a snapshot of the CBR for the 49 most populous countries of the world at different years from 1950 to 2021.
Country | 1950 | 1990 | 2021 | % Change (1950-2021) |
---|---|---|---|---|
🇦🇫 Afghanistan | 48.87 | 51.42 | 35.84 | -27% |
🇩🇿 Algeria | 51.05 | 30.76 | 21.52 | -58% |
🇦🇴 Angola | 46.15 | 51.34 | 38.81 | -16% |
🇦🇷 Argentina | 26.00 | 21.99 | 13.90 | -47% |
🇧🇩 Bangladesh | 46.52 | 34.97 | 17.82 | -62% |
🇧🇷 Brazil | 46.43 | 24.84 | 12.88 | -72% |
🇨🇦 Canada | 26.80 | 15.46 | 9.82 | -63% |
🇨🇳 China | 41.05 | 24.44 | 7.63 | -81% |
🇨🇴 Colombia | 46.74 | 27.37 | 14.20 | -70% |
🇨🇩 DRC | 46.02 | 46.01 | 42.05 | -9% |
🇪🇬 Egypt | 54.20 | 33.21 | 22.56 | -58% |
🇪🇹 Ethiopia | 49.40 | 50.05 | 32.38 | -34% |
🇫🇷 France | 20.77 | 13.34 | 10.50 | -49% |
🇩🇪 Germany | 16.22 | 11.30 | 9.17 | -43% |
🇬🇭 Ghana | 46.76 | 40.37 | 27.55 | -41% |
🇮🇳 India | 43.84 | 31.82 | 16.42 | -63% |
🇮🇩 Indonesia | 40.64 | 25.52 | 16.42 | -60% |
🇮🇷 Iran | 50.14 | 32.46 | 13.70 | -73% |
🇮🇶 Iraq | 45.73 | 39.41 | 27.37 | -40% |
🇮🇹 Italy | 19.70 | 10.01 | 6.93 | -65% |
🇯🇵 Japan | 28.34 | 9.91 | 6.57 | -77% |
🇰🇪 Kenya | 49.47 | 43.52 | 27.68 | -44% |
🇲🇾 Malaysia | 44.31 | 27.89 | 15.24 | -66% |
🇲🇽 Mexico | 49.31 | 29.30 | 14.86 | -70% |
🇲🇦 Morocco | 51.08 | 29.23 | 17.55 | -66% |
🇲🇿 Mozambique | 46.66 | 46.38 | 36.60 | -22% |
🇲🇲 Myanmar | 45.58 | 27.48 | 17.10 | -62% |
🇳🇵 Nepal | 47.06 | 38.11 | 20.40 | -57% |
🇳🇬 Nigeria | 45.61 | 43.79 | 37.12 | -19% |
🇵🇰 Pakistan | 43.72 | 43.15 | 27.52 | -37% |
🇵🇪 Peru | 48.16 | 30.90 | 17.62 | -63% |
🇵🇭 Philippines | 49.84 | 33.26 | 21.81 | -56% |
🇵🇱 Poland | 30.85 | 14.28 | 9.49 | -69% |
🇷🇺 Russia | 28.80 | 13.52 | 9.64 | -67% |
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 53.34 | 34.41 | 17.47 | -67% |
🇿🇦 South Africa | 41.65 | 31.15 | 19.82 | -52% |
🇰🇷 South Korea | 40.03 | 15.69 | 5.58 | -86% |
🇪🇸 Spain | 20.01 | 10.30 | 7.55 | -62% |
🇸🇩 Sudan | 47.75 | 43.09 | 33.60 | -30% |
🇹🇿 Tanzania | 47.75 | 43.78 | 36.21 | -24% |
🇹🇭 Thailand | 43.84 | 19.73 | 9.00 | -79% |
🇹🇷 Türkiye | 46.39 | 25.87 | 14.68 | -68% |
🇺🇸 U.S. | 22.81 | 16.73 | 11.06 | -52% |
🇺🇬 Uganda | 52.42 | 51.37 | 36.80 | -30% |
🇬🇧 UK | 16.44 | 13.88 | 10.08 | -39% |
🇺🇦 Ukraine | 22.95 | 12.76 | 7.72 | -66% |
🇺🇿 Uzbekistan | 39.85 | 33.98 | 23.55 | -41% |
🇻🇳 Vietnam | 38.82 | 28.51 | 15.01 | -61% |
🇾🇪 Yemen | 52.59 | 50.64 | 30.54 | -42% |
Every country on the list has seen a decline in birth rates in the last 70 years, with some declines more staggering than others. For example, China recorded 41 births per 1,000 people in 1950. By 2021, that number had fallen to just 7.6, a 81% decrease.
South Korea, the 29th most populous country in the world in 2021, saw an even larger 86% drop in its birth rate since 1950. In fact, almost every single country in this dataset has seen a double-digit fall in their birth rates over the past 70 years. Only the Democratic Republic of Congo has seen a single-digit percentage decline between 1950 and 2021.
Why are Global Birth Rates Falling?
For the 49 most populated countries in 2021, birth rates have halved on average in the last 70 years:
49 Most Populated Countries | 1950 | 1990 | 2021 |
---|---|---|---|
Average Birth Rate | 40.99 | 30.18 | 19.50 |
Median Birth Rate | 45.73 | 30.76 | 17.10 |
But while the thought of a shrinking world population may seem worrisome, declining birth rates are generally thought of as a triumph of rapid socio-economic development.
As countries progress and living standards improve, there is a shift in societal norms and aspirations. For example, expanded education and career opportunities for women allow the pursuit of professional growth and personal goals, with some women choosing to delay starting a family or having smaller families.
Growing urbanization is another key driver of declining birth rates, characterized by smaller living spaces, increased focus on careers, and limited support networks. Another is the growing access to family planning services and contraceptives, particularly since the 1970s.
What are the Future Consequences?
The biggest consequence of declining birth rates—and one that is already being seen in many parts of the world—is a rapidly aging population.
With fewer children being born, the proportion of elderly individuals increases relative to the working-age population. This demographic imbalance poses challenges for social welfare systems, healthcare, and pension schemes.
Declining birth rates can also impact the labor market and economic productivity. A smaller workforce may lead to labor shortages, skill gaps, and reduced innovation. And shrinking populations reduce consumer demand, a cornerstone of the global economy, which may trigger a restructure of the current growth model of development.
This article was published as a part of Visual Capitalist's Creator Program, which features data-driven visuals from some of our favorite Creators around the world.
United States
Mapped: U.S. States By Number of Cities Over 250,000 Residents
Eighteen U.S. States don’t have a single incorporated area with more than 250,000 people.
Mapped: U.S. States By Number of Cities Over 250K Residents
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
Over 80% of the American population lives in an “urban area” according to the U.S. Census Bureau. But where are all of the country’s largest cities, and what patterns can we see from their state locations?
This map shows U.S. states by their number of incorporated areas (i.e. cities or towns) that have more than 250,000 residents. Data for this map comes from 2024 estimates made by World Population Review, which were based on the latest U.S. Census Bureau figures.
Ranked: U.S. States By Number of Cities Over 250K Residents
California and Texas—also the most populous U.S. states—each have more than 10 cities with at least a quarter of a million inhabitants.
State | Cities With 250K People | City Names |
---|---|---|
California | 15 | Los Angeles, San Diego, San Jose, San Francisco, Fresno, Sacramento, Long Beach, Oakland, Bakersfield, Anaheim, Riverside, Stockton, Irvine, Santa Ana, Chula Visa |
Texas | 12 | Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin, El Paso, Arlington, Corpus Christi, Plano, Lubbock, Laredo, Irving |
Arizona | 6 | Phoenix, Tucson, Mesa, Chandler, Gilbert, Glendale |
Florida | 6 | Jacksonville, Miami, Tampa, Orlando, St. Petersburg, Port St. Lucie |
North Carolina | 5 | Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro, Durham, Winston-Salem |
Ohio | 4 | Columbus, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Toledo |
Nevada | 4 | Las Vegas, Henderson, North Las Vegas, Reno |
Colorado | 3 | Denver, Colorado Springs, Aurora |
Tennessee | 2 | Nashville, Memphis |
New York | 2 | New York, Buffalo |
Pennsylvania | 2 | Philadelphia, Pittsburgh |
Indiana | 2 | Indianapolis, Fort Wayne |
Oklahoma | 2 | Oklahoma City, Tulsa |
Kentucky | 2 | Louisville/Jefferson County, Lexington |
Wisconsin | 2 | Milwaukee, Madison |
Missouri | 2 | Kansas City, St. Louis |
Nebraska | 2 | Omaha, Lincoln |
Virginia | 2 | Virginia Beach, Chesapeake |
Minnesota | 2 | Minneapolis, St. Paul |
New Jersey | 2 | Newark, Jersey City |
Illinois | 1 | Chicago |
Washington | 1 | Seattle |
District of Columbia | 1 | Washington D.C. |
Massachusetts | 1 | Boston |
Oregon | 1 | Portland |
Michigan | 1 | Detroit |
New Mexico | 1 | Albuquerque |
Maryland | 1 | Baltimore |
Georgia | 1 | Atlanta |
Kansas | 1 | Wichita |
Louisiana | 1 | New Orleans |
Hawaii | 1 | Honolulu |
Alaska | 1 | Anchorage |
Two other warm weather states, Arizona and Florida, also have a number of cities with 250,000 or more residents, at six each.
Eighteen U.S. states in total—including South Carolina, Alabama, and Utah to name a few—have no single incorporated area with 250,000 or more residents.
Cities, Towns, and Metro Areas
Like with all population data, definitions tend to play a big role in what is considered a city. In general parlance, built-up population centers are often thought of cities. However, an urban area can have a relatively big population and be incorporated as a town, as in the case of Gilbert, Arizona, which is included in the above map.
Separately, a collection of incorporated villages can be collectively referred to as a town, such as in the case of Hempstead, New York. Hempstead is an incorporated village with only 60,000 people, however it also lends its name to the wider town (an amalgamation of 22 villages and 38 hamlets) which has nearly 800,000 inhabitants. Three other New York towns listed below thus do not make the map for similar reasons.
Town | State | Population |
---|---|---|
Hempstead | New York | 779,916 |
Brookhaven | New York | 483,351 |
Islip | New York | 333,322 |
Oyster Bay | New York | 293,812 |
Source: World Population Review.
On the other hand, major hubs like Los Angeles often have a central city and surrounding suburbs, which are their own distinct incorporated cities as well. These are often counted as one major metropolitan region, but are still, technically separate cities. This leads to interesting results in the final count.
For example, in Arizona’s case, five of the six cities listed all belong to the greater Phoenix Metropolitan region.
Meanwhile, Nevada has two main population centers: Las Vegas and Reno. However two of Las Vegas’ suburbs, Henderson and North Las Vegas, are separately incorporated, and each have populations that crack the 250,000 mark.
Conversely, in South Carolina, there are no cities listed, despite having a state population of 5.3 million. The state’s urban areas are divided up in such a way that none of them (including the central cities of Charleston, Columbia, and Greenville) end up passing 250,000 in population.
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