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Visualizing the World’s Plummeting Fertility Rate

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A line chart tracing the world's falling fertility rates to 2.3 in 2020 along with a heatmap of countries with higher (darker) or lower (lighter) fertility rates

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Visualizing the World’s Plummeting Fertility Rate

At the dawn of the 19th century, the world population hit a big milestone: 1 billion people.

Over the next 220 years, the number grew to eight times that, or the 8 billion people who live on the planet today, with half of the growth occurring since 1975.

This continuous climb in global population has been possible thanks to advancements in healthcare and nutrition. However, the UN forecasts that rapid growth will slow down—and may even stop entirely by 2100—because of falling fertility rates.

What does that mean for modern nation states conditioned to expect a constant influx of new citizens and labor to power their economies? And how can those changing economies adapt to a shrinking population?

To understand that, we need to first untangle fertility rates, and why they’re falling.

Explained: Fertility and Replacement Rates

The total fertility rate is the average number of births per woman over a lifetime. This measurement makes two key assumptions, however:

  • The woman will live to the end of her childbearing years
  • The woman will bear children according to the age-specific fertility rates currently observed

Both assumptions add some uncertainty to future fertility rate projections. However, decades of past data collected by the World Bank help show some overall trends around the world, and in many countries.

ℹ️ The age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) “measures the annual number of births to women of a specified age or age group per 1,000 women in that age group,” according to the UN.

The world fertility rate (expressed as the number of children per woman) has been falling steadily since the 1970s.

In 2020, the world’s fertility rate stood at 2.3, slightly above the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman, which allows for one generation to replace itself. This is down more than two times from 4.7 in 1960.

But the world’s average hides the vast disparities between the fertility rate of countries. We dive into the differences below.

Which Country has the Highest Fertility Rate?

According to the UN, nearly two-thirds of the world’s population lives in a region where the fertility rate is below the critical 2.1 threshold. In the table below, countries are ranked from the highest to lowest average births per woman in 2020.

RankCountry Name19601975199020052020
1Niger7.537.547.817.626.89
2Somalia7.257.037.447.486.42
3Chad6.256.887.227.136.35
4Dem. Rep. of Congo6.086.426.706.606.21
5Mali7.007.247.256.726.04
6Central African Republic5.815.896.055.855.99
7Angola6.717.497.276.465.37
8Nigeria6.366.776.466.075.31
9Burundi7.007.247.376.715.18
10Benin6.286.856.735.685.05
11Burkina Faso6.256.917.016.184.87
12Tanzania6.737.006.205.614.80
13Gambia6.256.416.225.724.78
14Afghanistan7.287.547.576.914.75
15Mozambique6.326.696.225.614.71
16Uganda6.947.237.046.574.69
17Cameroon5.656.396.395.414.54
18South Sudan6.726.927.996.174.54
19Sudan6.656.936.175.044.54
20Guinea6.116.376.635.704.49
21Cote d'Ivoire7.697.916.735.464.47
22Mauritania6.356.686.065.194.46
23Senegal7.007.256.405.194.45
24Zambia7.127.396.535.714.38
25Equatorial Guinea5.655.795.995.564.35
26Togo6.727.156.135.074.32
27Ethiopia6.887.147.245.974.24
28Rep. of Congo6.096.365.214.664.23
29Liberia6.396.746.375.524.17
30Guinea-Bissau5.926.156.515.454.09
31Sierra Leone6.186.556.575.814.08
32Comoros6.797.126.505.034.05
33Solomon Islands6.977.075.664.484.04
34Samoa7.656.684.934.374.00
35Malawi7.037.406.815.914.00
36Eritrea6.486.596.344.933.93
37Madagascar7.307.106.165.103.92
38Sao Tome & Principe6.246.535.834.963.89
39Yemen7.948.408.615.583.89
40Rwanda8.198.226.875.443.87
41Vanuatu6.866.095.034.163.78
42Ghana6.856.775.714.543.62
43West Bank & GazaNANA6.784.843.57
44Pakistan6.806.816.364.643.56
45Iraq5.306.885.884.483.55
46Gabon4.425.395.464.213.55
47Zimbabwe7.226.984.873.673.55
48Kenya7.637.886.134.783.40
49Namibia6.216.545.323.563.35
50Kiribati6.555.034.643.803.33
51Papua New Guinea6.026.075.184.223.27
52Tonga6.895.434.644.183.27
53Timor-Leste6.325.195.815.713.25
54Tajikistan6.556.605.343.443.24
55Tuvalu4.783.503.913.633.19
56Kazakhstan4.533.392.722.223.13
57Lesotho5.825.904.763.443.05
58Kyrgyzstan5.384.663.632.503.00
59Egypt6.795.804.483.152.96
60Algeria7.507.374.562.562.94
61Israel3.873.552.822.842.90
62Mongolia6.837.134.232.032.90
63Uzbekistan6.615.894.072.362.90
64Eswatini6.756.755.253.682.89
65Jordan7.677.895.483.782.87
66Haiti6.215.695.483.832.87
67Djibouti6.836.775.983.992.85
68Botswana6.636.584.493.082.84
69Syria7.497.475.383.812.80
70Philippines7.155.604.353.492.78
71Micronesia6.696.684.963.602.75
72Turkmenistan6.595.904.242.662.70
73Oman7.257.756.613.052.69
74Bolivia6.365.794.893.562.65
75Guam5.913.913.052.762.59
76Lao6.296.296.083.672.54
77Libya7.377.964.972.772.51
78Paraguay6.505.214.553.042.50
79Fiji6.464.103.412.892.50
80Guatemala6.966.415.483.972.48
81Saudi Arabia7.637.375.833.242.47
82Guyana6.374.503.072.842.42
83South Africa6.165.193.722.512.40
84Honduras7.466.865.293.552.39
85Cambodia6.254.105.643.242.38
86Suriname6.614.733.272.752.37
87Morocco7.046.274.022.572.35
88Nicaragua7.166.504.602.772.35
89Panama5.844.423.102.672.34
90Dominican Republic7.565.243.412.612.30
91Faroe IslandsNA2.902.802.602.30
92World4.704.083.312.602.30
93SeychellesNANANA2.202.29
94Venezuela, RB6.364.693.452.632.23
95Peru6.945.713.912.692.22
96Indonesia5.555.043.102.432.19
97Myanmar5.985.293.542.552.17
98Kuwait7.166.093.322.662.14
99Tunisia6.946.033.471.982.11
100Lebanon5.824.563.302.202.10
101Nepal6.035.755.213.142.06
102Ecuador6.725.433.742.802.05
103India5.925.204.052.962.05
104New Caledonia6.283.703.182.202.04
105Virgin Islands5.453.632.992.242.03
106Grenada6.744.023.492.342.02
107GreenlandNA2.352.442.382.02
108Bangladesh6.786.744.482.812.00
109Sri Lanka5.473.792.522.282.00
110Belize6.506.284.703.132.00
111Georgia2.942.532.311.611.97
112Vietnam6.285.643.601.961.96
113Turkiye6.385.073.132.221.92
114Argentina3.083.303.032.431.91
115Cabo Verde6.896.775.392.931.91
116Mexico6.765.793.452.501.91
117Gibraltar3.012.622.441.701.86
118Bahrain7.155.623.762.621.83
119France2.852.091.771.941.83
120El Salvador6.635.683.952.461.82
121Malaysia6.414.523.372.331.82
122North Korea3.573.052.351.961.82
123Qatar6.656.104.182.581.82
124St. Vincent & the Grenadines7.294.982.832.071.81
125Brunei Darussalam6.844.993.292.021.80
126Moldova3.332.532.391.531.77
127Montenegro3.502.401.941.691.75
128Colombia6.744.403.082.261.74
129Iceland4.292.652.302.051.72
130Maldives6.807.196.092.241.71
131Czechia2.092.431.901.291.71
132Iran7.306.014.861.781.71
133French Polynesia5.894.713.442.191.71
134Azerbaijan5.884.182.742.001.70
135Denmark2.571.921.671.801.67
136Sweden2.171.772.131.771.66
137Brazil6.064.422.911.971.65
138U.S.3.651.772.082.061.64
139Trinidad and Tobago5.353.242.381.681.63
140Ireland3.783.372.111.861.63
141Barbados4.332.391.741.791.63
142New Zealand4.242.332.181.971.61
143CuracaoNANANANA1.60
144Romania2.342.591.831.401.60
145Slovenia2.192.181.461.261.60
146Australia3.452.151.901.811.58
147Estonia1.982.042.051.521.58
148Armenia4.792.962.711.541.58
149Slovak Republic3.042.552.091.271.57
150Antigua and Barbuda4.602.772.251.831.57
151Isle of Man2.882.051.921.851.57
152Bulgaria2.312.231.821.371.56
153United Kingdom2.691.811.831.761.56
154Hungary2.022.351.871.311.56
155Costa Rica6.713.803.212.041.56
156Belgium2.541.741.621.761.55
157Latvia1.941.962.021.391.55
158Netherlands3.121.661.621.711.55
159Chile4.703.182.581.801.54
160Germany2.371.451.451.341.53
161Kosovo6.365.253.652.611.53
162Russia2.521.981.891.291.51
163Cuba4.132.851.801.471.50
164Croatia2.231.961.631.501.48
165Lithuania2.562.182.031.291.48
166Norway2.851.981.931.841.48
167SerbiaNANANA1.451.48
168Uruguay2.833.022.432.101.48
169U.A.E6.726.264.542.201.46
170Switzerland2.441.611.581.421.46
171Austria2.691.831.461.411.44
172Mauritius6.173.202.321.881.44
173Bhutan6.706.625.602.801.43
174St. Lucia6.975.463.401.681.41
175Albania6.464.522.901.801.40
176Canada3.811.821.831.571.40
177Portugal3.162.751.561.411.40
178Bahamas4.823.262.532.051.39
179Belarus2.672.171.911.251.38
180Poland2.982.272.061.241.38
181Finland2.721.681.781.801.37
182Luxembourg2.291.551.601.631.37
183Bosnia & Herzegovina3.912.361.791.201.36
184Jamaica5.584.502.852.061.36
185Thailand6.254.402.091.591.34
186Greece2.232.331.391.341.34
187Japan2.001.911.541.261.34
188Cyprus3.512.112.411.481.33
189Aruba4.822.512.301.781.33
190BermudaNANANA1.761.30
191North Macedonia3.972.592.191.501.30
192China4.453.572.511.621.28
193Italy2.402.171.331.341.24
194Spain2.862.771.361.331.23
195Ukraine2.242.021.851.211.22
196Malta3.622.272.021.381.13
197Singapore5.762.071.831.261.10
198Macao SAR, China4.931.601.740.831.07
199British Virgin Islands5.163.361.591.340.98
200Puerto Rico4.802.772.381.770.90
201Hong Kong5.072.671.270.960.87
202South Korea5.953.431.571.090.84

The African country of Niger currently has the highest fertility rate, at 6.9, which means on average, a woman in Niger will have seven children in her lifetime.

With the exception of Afghanistan (14th), all of the top 30 countries are found on the African continent. In fact, it’s estimated that Africa will add 2.5 billion new people by 2100, while most continents will actually flatline in terms of population growth.

At the bottom of the rankings, the country with the lowest fertility rate is South Korea, at 0.84.

Interestingly, many of the current most populous countries of the world—including China, India, and the U.S.—are all below replacement levels of fertility, with parts of Europe and North America having had persistently low fertility levels since the 1970s.

However, even the countries that currently have high fertility rates have seen a steep decline over the last 60 years. Why?

Why are Fertility Rates Falling All Over The World?

Declining fertility rates are a consequence of a confluence of many related factors, including (but not limited to):

  • Better access to contraception
  • Improving opportunities for women, outside of childbearing
  • Robust healthcare that lowers mortality rates of children

In the past, a larger number of children meant more chances of some making it to adulthood since infant mortality was so high. Women were also restricted to childbearing and rearing, and lacked access to contraception which led to increased—and sometimes unwanted—pregnancies.

Declining fertility rates are thus a triumph of improved socioeconomic development for many countries.

Consequences of Declining Fertility Rates

Although there are obvious issues with our large global population today, a different set of issues arise when fertility rates fall below replacement levels.

Dropping fertility rates can lead to shrinking populations and a higher ratio of the elderly to working adults—which will have unwanted economic consequences like increased healthcare costs and a reduced tax base.

Short-term solutions like immigration can help until populations are shrinking in every country. Longer-term solutions—reducing the cost of raising a child, and providing better support for families with children—are common strategies deployed to ward off demographic disaster.

The current crop of humanity has never had to contend with shrinking populations on a global scale. How will this reshape human livelihoods, priorities and expectations from life? We might soon find out.

Source: The World Bank.

Data note: The World Bank uses a number of sources to aggregate their data including the UN population division, Eurostat, and several national statistics programs. Data for some years is missing and has been marked as “NA.” Please visit their website for more information.

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Countries

Charted: The World’s Biggest Oil Producers

Just three countries—the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Russia—make up the lion’s share of global oil supply. Here are the biggest oil producers in 2022.

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A cropped chart with the per day production by the biggest oil producers in 2022.

Charted: The World’s Biggest Oil Producers in 2022

In 2022 oil prices peaked at more than $100 per barrel, hitting an eight-year high, after a full year of turmoil in the energy markets in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Oil companies doubled their profits and the economies of the biggest oil producers in the world got a major boost.

But which countries are responsible for most of the world’s oil supply? Using data from the Statistical Review of World Energy by the Energy Institute, we’ve visualized and ranked the world’s biggest oil producers.

Ranked: Oil Production By Country, in 2022

The U.S. has been the world’s biggest oil producer since 2018 and continued its dominance in 2022 by producing close to 18 million barrels per day (B/D). This accounted for nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.

Almost three-fourths of the country’s oil production is centered around five states: Texas, New Mexico, North Dakota, Alaska, and Colorado.

We rank the other major oil producers in the world below.

RankCountry2022 Production
(Thousand B/D)
YoY ChangeShare of
World Supply
1🇺🇸 U.S.17,770+6.5%18.9%
2🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia12,136+10.8%12.9%
3🇷🇺 Russia11,202+1.8%11.9%
4🇨🇦 Canada5,576+3.0%5.9%
5🇮🇶 Iraq4,520+10.2%4.8%
6🇨🇳 China4,111+2.9%4.4%
7🇦🇪 UAE4,020+10.4%4.3%
8🇮🇷 Iran3,822+4.6%4.1%
9🇧🇷 Brazil3,107+3.9%3.3%
10🇰🇼 Kuwait3,028+12.0%3.2%
11🇲🇽 Mexico1,944+0.9%2.1%
12🇳🇴 Norway1,901-6.3%2.0%
13🇰🇿 Kazakhstan1,769-2.0%1.9%
14🇶🇦 Qatar1,768+1.8%1.9%
15🇩🇿 Algeria1,474+8.9%1.6%
16🇳🇬 Nigeria1,450-11.2%1.5%
17🇦🇴 Angola1,190+1.1%1.3%
18🇱🇾 Libya1,088-14.3%1.2%
19🇴🇲 Oman1,064+9.6%1.1%
20🇬🇧 UK778-11.0%0.8%
21🇨🇴 Colombia754+2.4%0.8%
22🇮🇳 India737-3.8%0.8%
23🇻🇪 Venezuela731+8.1%0.8%
24🇦🇷 Argentina706+12.4%0.8%
25🇦🇿 Azerbaijan685-5.6%0.7%
26🇮🇩 Indonesia644-6.9%0.7%
27🇪🇬 Egypt613+0.8%0.7%
28🇲🇾 Malaysia567-1.7%0.6%
29🇪🇨 Ecuador481+1.7%0.5%
30🇦🇺 Australia420-5.2%0.4%
31🇹🇭 Thailand331-17.5%0.4%
32🇨🇩 Congo269-1.7%0.3%
33🇹🇲 Turkmenistan244+1.0%0.3%
34🇻🇳 Vietnam194-1.2%0.2%
35🇬🇦 Gabon191+5.4%0.2%
36🇸🇸 South Sudan141-7.6%0.2%
37🇵🇪 Peru128+0.5%0.1%
38🇹🇩 Chad124+6.2%0.1%
39🇬🇶 Equatorial
Guinea
119-9.2%0.1%
40🇸🇾 Syria93-2.7%0.1%
41🇮🇹 Italy92-7.9%0.1%
42🇧🇳 Brunei92-13.8%0.1%
43🇾🇪 Yemen81-2.4%0.1%
44🇹🇹 Trinidad
& Tobago
74-3.6%0.1%
45🇷🇴 Romania65-6.2%0.1%
46🇩🇰 Denmark65-1.6%0.1%
47🇺🇿 Uzbekistan63-0.9%0.1%
48🇸🇩 Sudan62-3.3%0.1%
49🇹🇳 Tunisia40-12.9%0.0%
50Other CIS43+4.4%0.0%
51Other Middle East210+1.2%0.2%
52Other Africa283-3.4%0.3%
53Other Europe230-20.5%0.2%
54Other Asia Pacific177-10.6%0.2%
55Other S. &
Cent. America
381+68.5%0.4%
Total World93,848+4.2%100.0%

Behind America’s considerable lead in oil production, Saudi Arabia (ranked 2nd) produced 12 million B/D, accounting for about 13% of global supply.

Russia came in third with 11 million B/D in 2022. Together, these top three oil producing behemoths, along with Canada (4th) and Iraq (5th), make up more than half of the entire world’s oil supply.

Meanwhile, the top 10 oil producers, including those ranked 6th to 10th—China, UAE, Iran, Brazil, and Kuwait—are responsible for more than 70% of the world’s oil production.

Notably, all top 10 oil giants increased their production between 2021–2022, and as a result, global output rose 4.2% year-on-year.

Major Oil Producing Regions in 2022

The Middle East accounts for one-third of global oil production and North America makes up almost another one-third of production. The Commonwealth of Independent States—an organization of post-Soviet Union countries—is another major regional producer of oil, with a 15% share of world production.

Region2022 Production
(Thousand B/D)
YoY ChangeShare of
World Supply
Middle East30,743+9.2%32.8%
North America25,290+5.3%27.0%
CIS14,006+0.9%14.9%
Africa7,043-3.5%7.5%
Asia Pacific7,273-1.4%7.8%
South & Central
America
6,3617.2%6.8%
Europe3,131-8.6%3.3%

What’s starkly apparent in the data however is Europe’s declining share of oil production, now at 3% of the world’s supply. In the last 20 years the EU’s oil output has dropped by more than 50% due to a variety of factors, including stricter environmental regulations and a shift to natural gas.

Another lens to look at regional production is through OPEC members, which control about 35% of the world’s oil output and about 70% of the world’s oil reserves.

A pictogram of the regional per day production by the biggest oil producers in 2022.

When taking into account the group of 10 oil exporting countries OPEC has relationships with, known as OPEC+, the share of oil production increases to more than half of the world’s supply.

Oil’s Big Balancing Act

Since it’s the very lifeblood of the modern economy, the countries that control significant amounts of oil production also reap immense political and economic benefits. Entire regions have been catapulted into prosperity and wars have been fought over the control of the resource.

At the same time, the ongoing effort to pivot to renewable energy is pushing many major oil exporters to diversify their economies. A notable example is Saudi Arabia, whose sovereign wealth fund has invested in companies like Uber and WeWork.

However, the world still needs oil, as it supplies nearly one-third of global energy demand.

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