Markets

World Population Growth Visualized (1950-2100)

Published

5 years ago

August 8, 2018

Jeff Desjardins

World Population Growth Visualized (1950-2100)

In any large set of data, there are bound to be some interesting outliers.

Today’s data visualization comes to us from Reddit user /r/mythicquale and it shows the population growth of every country using data and projections from the United Nations population division.

The graph is on a logarithmic scale, which ultimately groups together most growth rates even though they would be much further apart on a linear scale. This means the places outside of the middle range are the true outliers, gaining or losing many multiples of their original populations.

These are the stories that are worth looking at in more depth.

World Population Growth Outliers

How the population grows in any particular country is a function of fertility, mortality, and migration rates, and these outliers each have something anomalous happening at least one of these factors.

Montserrat
In 1995, a previously dormant volcano erupted in this British Overseas Territory in the Caribbean, destroying the island’s capital city of Plymouth. People evacuated, mostly fleeing to the United Kingdom, and the population of the island dropped by two-thirds over the period of five years.

Interestingly, Plymouth is still listed as the territory’s capital city today, making it the only capital city of a political jurisdiction that is completely abandoned.

U.A.E.
Dubai was once a fishing village, but now it’s an international real estate hub. Abu Dhabi had just 25,000 people in 1960, and today it’s a metropolis of almost 2 million people.

Oil wealth and significant investment is one side of the story, but the influx of foreign workers is an even bigger one. In fact, U.A.E. citizens only make up 11.5% of the population, and the rest (88.5%) is made of workers mostly from South Asia.

It’s also worth mentioning that immigrant labor in the U.A.E. has been the subject of scrutiny internationally, as there have been instances of human rights violations and accusations of forced labor.

Qatar
Qatar is another Middle Eastern country that has shot up in population, and it carries a similar story to the United Arab Emirates. Only about 12% of the population is Qatari, and the rest consists of migrant works mostly from South Asia. Qatar, which has the highest GDP per capita in the world, also has faced similar allegations as the U.A.E. regarding the use of forced labor.

Back in 1950, Qatar’s population was just 50,000, but today the country boasts 2.6 million people.

Related Topics:africa Growth united nations countries population world

Up Next

Warren Buffett’s Biggest Wins & Fails

Don't Miss

The Pearl River Delta’s Astonishing Megacity Transformation

Click for Comments

Markets

Visualizing Portfolio Return Expectations, by Country

This graphic shows the gap in portfolio return expectations between investors and advisors around the world, revealing a range of market outlooks.

Published

4 hours ago

December 6, 2023

Dorothy Neufeld

Visualizing Portfolio Return Expectations, by Country

This was originally posted on Advisor Channel. Sign up to the free mailing list to get beautiful visualizations on financial markets that help advisors and their clients.

How do investors’ return expectations differ from those of advisors? How does this expectation gap shift across countries?

Despite 2022 being the worst year for stock markets in over a decade, investors around the world appear confident about the long-term performance of their portfolios. These convictions point towards resilience across global economies, driven by strong labor markets and moderating inflation.

While advisors are optimistic, their expectations are more conservative overall.

This graphic shows the return expectation gap by country between investors and financial professionals in 2023, based on data from Natixis.

Expectation Gap by Country

Below, we show the return expectation gap by country, based on a survey of 8,550 investors and 2,700 financial professionals:

Long-Term Annual Return Expectations	Investors	Financial Professionals	Expectations Gap
🇺🇸 U.S.	15.6%	7.0%	2.2X
🇨🇱 Chile	15.1%	14.5%	1.0X
🇲🇽 Mexico	14.7%	14.0%	1.1X
🇸🇬 Singapore	14.5%	14.2%	1.0X
🇯🇵 Japan	13.6%	8.7%	1.6X
🇦🇺 Australia	12.5%	6.9%	1.8X
🇭🇰 Hong Kong SAR	12.4%	7.6%	1.6X
🇨🇦 Canada	10.6%	6.5%	1.6X
🇪🇸 Spain	10.6%	7.6%	1.4X
🇩🇪 Germany	10.1%	7.0%	1.4X
🇮🇹 Italy	9.6%	6.3%	1.5X
🇨🇭 Switzerland	9.6%	6.9%	1.4X
🇫🇷 France	8.9%	6.6%	1.3X
🇬🇧 UK	8.1%	6.2%	1.3X
🌐 Global	12.8%	9.0%	1.4X

Investors in the U.S. have the highest long-term annual return expectations, at 15.6%. The U.S. also has the highest expectations gap across countries, with investors’ expectations more than double that of advisors.

Likely influencing investor convictions are the outsized returns seen in the last decade, led by big tech. This year is no exception, as a handful of tech giants are seeing soaring returns, lifting the overall market.

From a broader perspective, the S&P 500 has returned 11.5% on average annually since 1928.

Following next in line were investors in Chile and Mexico with return expectations of 15.1% and 14.7%, respectively. Unlike many global markets, the MSCI Chile Index posted double-digit returns in 2022.

Global financial hub, Singapore, has the lowest expectations gap across countries.

Investors in the UK and Europe, have the most moderate return expectations overall. Confidence has been weighed down by geopolitical tensions, high interest rates, and dismal economic data.

Return Expectations Across Asset Classes

What are the expected returns for different asset classes over the next decade?

A separate report by Vanguard used a quantitative model to forecast returns through to 2033. For U.S. equities, it projects 4.1-6.1% in annualized returns. Global equities are forecast to have 6.4-8.4% returns, outperforming U.S. stocks over the next decade.

Bonds, meanwhile, are forecast to see 3.6-4.6% annualized returns for the U.S. aggregate market, while U.S. Treasuries are projected to average 3.3-4.3% annually.

While it’s impossible to predict the future, we can see a clear expectation gap not only between countries, but between advisors, clients, and other models. Factors such as inflation, interest rates, and the ability for countries to weather economic headwinds will likely have a significant influence on future portfolio returns.