Markets
World Population Growth Visualized (1950-2100)
World Population Growth Visualized (1950-2100)
In any large set of data, there are bound to be some interesting outliers.
Today’s data visualization comes to us from Reddit user /r/mythicquale and it shows the population growth of every country using data and projections from the United Nations population division.
The graph is on a logarithmic scale, which ultimately groups together most growth rates even though they would be much further apart on a linear scale. This means the places outside of the middle range are the true outliers, gaining or losing many multiples of their original populations.
These are the stories that are worth looking at in more depth.
World Population Growth Outliers
How the population grows in any particular country is a function of fertility, mortality, and migration rates, and these outliers each have something anomalous happening at least one of these factors.
Montserrat
In 1995, a previously dormant volcano erupted in this British Overseas Territory in the Caribbean, destroying the island’s capital city of Plymouth. People evacuated, mostly fleeing to the United Kingdom, and the population of the island dropped by two-thirds over the period of five years.
Interestingly, Plymouth is still listed as the territory’s capital city today, making it the only capital city of a political jurisdiction that is completely abandoned.
U.A.E.
Dubai was once a fishing village, but now it’s an international real estate hub. Abu Dhabi had just 25,000 people in 1960, and today it’s a metropolis of almost 2 million people.
Oil wealth and significant investment is one side of the story, but the influx of foreign workers is an even bigger one. In fact, U.A.E. citizens only make up 11.5% of the population, and the rest (88.5%) is made of workers mostly from South Asia.
It’s also worth mentioning that immigrant labor in the U.A.E. has been the subject of scrutiny internationally, as there have been instances of human rights violations and accusations of forced labor.
Qatar
Qatar is another Middle Eastern country that has shot up in population, and it carries a similar story to the United Arab Emirates. Only about 12% of the population is Qatari, and the rest consists of migrant works mostly from South Asia. Qatar, which has the highest GDP per capita in the world, also has faced similar allegations as the U.A.E. regarding the use of forced labor.
Back in 1950, Qatar’s population was just 50,000, but today the country boasts 2.6 million people.
Markets
How Disinflation Could Affect Company Financing
History signals that after a period of slowing inflation—also known as disinflation—debt and equity issuance expands.
How Disinflation Could Affect Company Financing
The macroeconomic environment is shifting. Since the second half of 2022, the pace of U.S. inflation has been dropping.
We explore how this disinflation may affect company financing in Part 2 of our Understanding Market Trends series from Citizens.
Disinflation vs. Deflation
The last time inflation climbed above 9% and then dropped was in the early 1980’s.
| Time Period | March 1980-July 1983 | June 2022-April 2023* |
|---|---|---|
| Inflation at Start of Cycle | 14.8% | 9.1% |
| Inflation at End of Cycle | 2.5% | 4.9% |
* The June 2022-April 2023 cycle is ongoing. Source: Federal Reserve. Inflation is based on the Consumer Price Index.
A decrease in the rate of inflation is known as disinflation. It differs from deflation, which is a negative inflation rate like the U.S. experienced at the end of the Global Financial Crisis in 2009.
How might slowing inflation affect the amount of debt and equity available to companies?
Looking to History
There are many factors that influence capital markets, such as technological advances, monetary policy, and regulatory changes.
With this caveat in mind, history signals that both debt and equity issuance expand after a period of disinflation.
Equity Issuance
Companies issued low levels of stock during the ‘80s disinflation period, but issuance later rose nearly 300% in 1983.
| Year | Deal Value |
|---|---|
| 1980 | $2.6B |
| 1981 | $5.0B |
| 1982 | $3.6B |
| 1983 | $13.5B |
| 1984 | $2.5B |
| 1985 | $12.0B |
| 1986 | $24.2B |
| 1987 | $24.9B |
| 1988 | $16.9B |
| 1989 | $12.9B |
| 1990 | $13.4B |
| 1991 | $45.2B |
| 1992 | $50.3B |
| 1993 | $95.3B |
| 1994 | $63.7B |
| 1995 | $79.7B |
| 1996 | $108.7B |
| 1997 | $106.5B |
| 1998 | $97.0B |
| 1999 | $142.8B |
| 2000 | $156.5B |
Source: Bloomberg. U.S. public equity issuance dollar volume that includes both initial and follow-on offerings and excludes convertibles.
Issuance grew quickly in the years that followed. Other factors also influenced issuance, such as the macroeconomic expansion, productivity growth, and the dotcom boom of the ‘90s.
Debt Issuance
Similarly, companies issued low debt during the ‘80s disinflation, but levels began to increase substantially in later years.
| Year | Deal Value | Interest Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1980 | $4.5B | 11.4% |
| 1981 | $6.7B | 13.9% |
| 1982 | $14.5B | 13.0% |
| 1983 | $8.1B | 11.1% |
| 1984 | $25.7B | 12.5% |
| 1985 | $46.4B | 10.6% |
| 1986 | $47.1B | 7.7% |
| 1987 | $26.4B | 8.4% |
| 1988 | $24.7B | 8.9% |
| 1989 | $29.9B | 8.5% |
| 1990 | $40.2B | 8.6% |
| 1991 | $41.6B | 7.9% |
| 1992 | $50.0B | 7.0% |
| 1993 | $487.8B | 5.9% |
| 1994 | $526.4B | 7.1% |
| 1995 | $632.7B | 6.6% |
| 1996 | $906.0B | 6.4% |
| 1997 | $1.3T | 6.4% |
| 1998 | $1.8T | 5.3% |
| 1999 | $1.8T | 5.7% |
| 2000 | $2.8T | 6.0% |
Source: Dealogic, Federal Reserve. Data reflects U.S. debt issuance dollar volume across several deal types including: Asset Backed Securities, U.S. Agency, Non-U.S. Agency, High Yield, Investment Grade, Government Backed, Mortgage Backed, Medium Term Notes, Covered Bonds, Preferreds, and Supranational. Interest Rate is the 10 Year Treasury Yield.
As interest rates dropped and debt capital markets matured, issuing debt became cheaper and corporations seized this opportunity.
It’s worth noting that debt issuance was also impacted by other factors, like the maturity of the high-yield debt market and growth in non-bank lenders such as hedge funds and pension funds.
Then vs. Now
Could the U.S. see levels of capital financing similar to what happened during the ‘80s disinflation? There are many economic differences between then and now.
Consider how various indicators differed 10 months into each disinflationary period.
| January 1981 | April 2023* | |
|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Annual | 11.8% | 4.9% |
| Inflation Expectations Next 12 Months | 9.5% | 4.5% |
| Interest Rate 10-Yr Treasury Yield | 12.6% | 3.7% |
| Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted | 7.5% | 3.4% |
| Nominal Wage Growth Annual, Seasonally Adjusted | 9.3% | 5.0% |
| After-Tax Corporate Profits As Share of Gross Value Added | 9.1% | 13.8% |
* Data for inflation expectations and interest rate is as of May 2023, data for corporate profits is as of Q4 1980 and Q1 2023. Inflation is a year-over-year inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index. Source: Federal Reserve.
The U.S. economy is in a better position when it comes to factors like inflation, unemployment, and corporate profits. On the other hand, fears of an upcoming recession and turmoil in the banking sector have led to volatility.
What to Consider During Disinflation
Amid uncertainty in financial markets, lenders and investors may be more cautious. Companies will need to be strategic about how they approach capital financing.
- High-quality, profitable companies could be well positioned for IPOs as investors are placing more focus on cash flow.
- High-growth companies could face fewer options as lenders become more selective and could consider alternative forms of equity and private debt.
- Companies with lower credit ratings could find debt more expensive as lenders charge higher rates to account for market volatility.
In uncertain times, it’s critical for businesses to work with the right advisor to find—and take advantage of—financing opportunities.
Learn more about working with Citizens.
-
Politics2 weeks agoCharting the Rise of America’s Debt Ceiling
By June 1, a debt ceiling agreement must be finalized. The U.S. could default if politicians fail to act—causing many stark consequences.
-
Education2 weeks agoRanked: The World’s Top 50 Endowment Funds
Endowment funds represent the investment arms of nonprofits. See the worlds top 50, which collectively have over $1 trillion in assets.
-
Demographics2 weeks agoVisualizing the American Workforce as 100 People
Reimagining all 200 million of the American workforce as 100 people: where do they all work, what positions they hold, and what jobs they do?
-
Markets4 weeks agoVisualized: Real Interest Rates by Country
What countries have the highest real interest rates? We look at 40 economies to analyze nominal and real rates after projected inflation.
-
Central Banks2 months agoRanked: The Largest Bond Markets in the World
The global bond market stands at $133 trillion in value. Here are the major players in bond markets worldwide.
-
Markets2 months agoVisualized: The Largest Trading Partners of the U.S.
Who are the biggest trading partners of the U.S.? This visual showcases the trade balances between the U.S. and its trading partners.
-
Politics2 weeks ago
Charting the Rise of America’s Debt Ceiling
-
Money3 weeks agoComparing the Speed of Interest Rate Hikes (1988-2023)
-
Urbanization2 weeks agoRanked: The Cities with the Most Skyscrapers in 2023
-
War3 weeks agoMap Explainer: Sudan
-
Urbanization2 weeks agoRanked: The World’s Biggest Steel Producers, by Country
-
Misc3 weeks agoVisualized: The World’s Busiest Airports, by Passenger Count
-
Visual Capitalist6 days agoJoin Us For Data Creator Con 2023
-
Technology3 weeks agoVisualizing Global Attitudes Towards AI