Demographics
The World Population in 2100, by Country
The World Population in 2100, by Country
In 2015, the United Nations predicted that the global population could surpass 11 billion by the end of the century.
Last year, the UN revised these estimates, but the numbers it came up with were still well above 10 billion. These regular projections from the UN have been the status quoโuntil now.
Plenty of signs have pointed to there being a population plateau, but recent research from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), published in The Lancet, suggests that the number of people on this planet may actually start to shrink well before the year 2100.
Hereโs a closer look at these complex projections.
UN vs. IHME Population Estimates
According to the UN, the world population is set to steadily rise over the years:
- 2030: 8.5 billion
- 2050: 9.7 billion
- 2100: 10.9 billion
In contrast, IHME paints a different picture. It projects the population to actually peak at 9.7 billion in 2064. Following this trajectory, there could be 8.8 billion people in 2100, approximately 2 billion fewer than previously thought.
Various demographic factors are behind these differencesโhigher life expectancies, migration rates, and lower fertility rates. For this last factor, independent drivers including contraceptive access and higher educational attainment were also considered.
A shifting age structure is also a key aspect of this transition. By 2100, over a quarter of the world or nearly 2.37 billion will be aged 65 years and above.
The Most Populous Countries in 2100
Amid all these demographic sea changes, which countries will come out on top?
Despite an overall decline in numbers to 1.09 billion people in 2100, India moves up from second to first place on the population leaderboard.
Rank | Country | Population (2017) | Rank | Country | Population (2100E) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 | ๐จ๐ณ China | 1.4B | #1 | ๐ฎ๐ณ India | 1.09B |
#2 | ๐ฎ๐ณ India | 1.38B | #2 | ๐ณ๐ฌ Nigeria | 791M |
#3 | ๐บ๐ธ U.S. | 325M | #3 | ๐จ๐ณ China | 732M |
#4 | ๐ฎ๐ฉ Indonesia | 258M | #4 | ๐บ๐ธ U.S. | 336M |
#5 | ๐ต๐ฐ Pakistan | 214M | #5 | ๐ต๐ฐ Pakistan | 248M |
#6 | ๐ง๐ท Brazil | 212M | #6 | ๐จ๐ฉ DR Congo | 246M |
#7 | ๐ณ๐ฌ Nigeria | 206M | #7 | ๐ฎ๐ฉ Indonesia | 229M |
#8 | ๐ง๐ฉ Bangladesh | 157M | #8 | ๐ช๐น Ethiopia | 223M |
#9 | ๐ท๐บ Russia | 146M | #9 | ๐ช๐ฌ Egypt | 199M |
#10 | ๐ฏ๐ต Japan | 128M | #10 | ๐น๐ฟ Tanzania | 186M |
The populations of both India and China will begin to contract after the mid-centuryโand it’s predicted that Chinaโs total population will drop by almost half to 732 million by 2100.
Led by Nigeria, Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region that will continue to see growth by century’s end. In fact, four of the top 10 countries in the world in terms of population count will be located in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Tightly Packed Together
One final thing to consider is how population density may look in 2100, with many more people clustered in the same areas. For example, Nigeria is dealing with a land area nearly 11 times smaller than the U.S.โbut it will have more than double the population.
Country | 2100 Pop. | Area (Millions, kmยฒ/miยฒ) | Population Density per kmยฒ (miยฒ) |
---|---|---|---|
๐ณ๐ฌ Nigeria | 791M | 0.92M kmยฒ (0.36M miยฒ) | 856.3 (2217.7) |
๐ฎ๐ณ India | 1.09B | 3.29M kmยฒ (1.27M miยฒ) | 331.6 (858.8) |
๐ต๐ฐ Pakistan | 248M | 0.88M kmยฒ (0.34M miยฒ) | 281.2 (728.3) |
๐ช๐น Ethiopia | 223M | 1.10M kmยฒ (0.42M miยฒ) | 202.7 (531.0) |
๐ช๐ฌ Egypt | 199M | 1.01M kmยฒ (0.39M miยฒ) | 197.0 (510.1) |
๐น๐ฟ Tanzania | 186M | 0.95M kmยฒ (0.37M miยฒ) | 196.3 (508.5) |
๐ฎ๐ฉ Indonesia | 229M | 1.90M kmยฒ (0.74M miยฒ) | 120.2 (311.4) |
๐จ๐ฉ DR Congo | 246M | 2.35M kmยฒ (0.91M miยฒ) | 104.9 (271.7) |
๐จ๐ณ China | 732M | 9.60M kmยฒ (3.70M miยฒ) | 76.3 (197.8) |
๐บ๐ธ U.S. | 336M | 9.83M kmยฒ (3.80M miยฒ) | 34.2 (88.5) |
Regardless of how the future population count shakes out, it’s clear that these heavyweight countries will undergo significant transformation in the coming decades.
Politics
Charted: The Number of Democracies Globally
How many democracies does the world have? This visual shows the change since 1945 and the top nations becoming more (and less) democratic.

Charted: The Number of Democracies Globally
The end of World War II in 1945 was a turning point for democracies around the world.
Before this critical turning point in geopolitics, democracies made up only a small number of the world’s countries, both legally and in practice. However, over the course of the next six decades, the number of democratic nations would more than quadruple.
Interestingly, studies have found that this trend has recently reversed as of the 2010s, with democracies and non-democracies now in a deadlock.
In this visualization, Staffan Landin uses data from V-DEMโs Electoral Democratic Index (EDI) to highlight the changing face of global politics over the past two decades and the nations that contributed the most to this change.
The Methodology
V-DEM’s EDI attempts to measure democratic development in a comprehensive way, through the contributions of 3,700 experts from countries around the world.
Instead of relying on each nation’s legally recognized system of government, the EDI analyzes the level of electoral democracy in countries on a range of indicators, including:
- Free and fair elections
- Rule of law
- Alternative sources of information and association
- Freedom of expression
Countries are assigned a score on a scale from 0 to 1, with higher scores indicating a higher level of democracy. Each is also categorized into four types of functional government, from liberal and electoral democracies to electoral and closed autocracies.
Which Countries Have Declined the Most?
The EDI found that numerous countries around the world saw declines in democracy over the past two decades. Here are the 10 countries that saw the steepest decline in EDI score since 2010:
Country | Democracy Index (2010) | Democracy Index (2022) | Points Lost |
---|---|---|---|
๐ญ๐บ Hungary | 0.80 | 0.46 | -34 |
๐ต๐ฑ Poland | 0.89 | 0.59 | -30 |
๐ท๐ธ Serbia | 0.61 | 0.34 | -27 |
๐น๐ท Tรผrkiye | 0.55 | 0.28 | -27 |
๐ฎ๐ณ India | 0.71 | 0.44 | -27 |
๐ฒ๐ฑ Mali | 0.51 | 0.25 | -26 |
๐น๐ญ Thailand | 0.44 | 0.20 | -24 |
๐ฆ๐ซ Afghanistan | 0.38 | 0.16 | -22 |
๐ง๐ท Brazil | 0.88 | 0.66 | -22 |
๐ง๐ฏ Benin | 0.64 | 0.42 | -22 |
Central and Eastern Europe was home to three of the countries seeing the largest declines in democracy. Hungary, Poland, and Serbia lead the table, with Hungary and Serbia in particular dropping below scores of 0.5.
Some of the world’s largest countries by population also decreased significantly, including India and Brazil. Across most of the top 10, the “freedom of expression” indicator was hit particularly hard, with notable increases in media censorship to be found in Afghanistan and Brazil.
Countries Becoming More Democratic
Here are the 10 countries that saw the largest increase in EDI score since 2010:
Country | Democracy Index (2010) | Democracy Index (2022) | Points Gained |
---|---|---|---|
๐ฆ๐ฒ Armenia | 0.34 | 0.74 | +40 |
๐ซ๐ฏ Fiji | 0.14 | 0.40 | +26 |
๐ฌ๐ฒ The Gambia | 0.25 | 0.50 | +25 |
๐ธ๐จ Seychelles | 0.45 | 0.67 | +22 |
๐ฒ๐ฌ Madagascar | 0.28 | 0.48 | +20 |
๐น๐ณ Tunisia | 0.40 | 0.56 | +16 |
๐ฑ๐ฐ Sri Lanka | 0.42 | 0.57 | +15 |
๐ฌ๐ผ Guinea-Bissau | 0.41 | 0.56 | +15 |
๐ฒ๐ฉ Moldova | 0.59 | 0.74 | +15 |
๐ณ๐ต Nepal | 0.46 | 0.59 | +13 |
Armenia, Fiji, and Seychelles saw significant improvement in the autonomy of their electoral management bodies in the last 10 years. Partially as a result, both Armenia and Seychelles have seen their scores rise above 0.5.
The Gambia also saw great improvement across many election indicators, including the quality of voter registries, vote buying, and election violence. It was one of five African countries to make the top 10 most improved democracies.
With the total number of democracies and non-democracies almost tied over the past four years, it is hard to predict the political atmosphere in the future.
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