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The World is Turning Japanese [Chart]

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The World is Turning Japanese [Chart]

The World is Turning Japanese [Chart]

Negative rates, Kuroda’s “Peter Pan” analogy, and gold’s surge

The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.

Nearly a year ago, Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda described the unlikely inspiration behind Japan’s unprecedented monetary stimulus: Peter Pan.

I trust that many of you are familiar with the story of Peter Pan, in which it says, ‘the moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease forever to be able to do it’. Yes, what we need is a positive attitude and conviction. Indeed, each time central banks have been confronted with a wide range of problems, they have overcome the problems by conceiving new solutions.

Kuroda’s optimism is desperately needed in a country that has now been officially “leapfrogged” by the four Asian Tigers in terms of Real GDP per capita (PPP). With over a decade of experimentation in extreme monetary policy under their belts, Japan has very little to show for it.

It would be fine if this story of economic malaise could be confined as a global outlier. However, recent circumstances have prodded the world’s central bankers to finally buy into the tale of Peter Pan.

The world is turning Japanese.

So Much Negativity

Negative interest rates were an economic pipe dream many decades ago, but the idea of “charging” interest to hold money is now becoming mainstream. Conventional wisdom was that depositors would just hoard cash rather than depositing at a cost, but now the people running central banks are beginning to believe that this fear is misplaced. Especially as society becomes more cashless, the inconvenience of withdrawing money to save a few bucks isn’t worth it.

Central banks in Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, and Japan now all have negative interest rates. The ECB has also held their Deposit Facility Rate for overnight deposits in the negative since June 2014.

In recent weeks, the interest in this economic experiment has risen significantly. Sweden cut their rates deeper into negative territory, signalling to the rest of the world that there is nothing to fear. Meanwhile, both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada have openly pondered the possibility of NIRP in their respective jurisdictions.

Misplaced Conviction?

Not everyone agrees with the central bankers in seeing the Peter Pan analogy to be a fitting representation.

We’d liken it more to a squad of musketeers running out of gunpowder, and turning desperately to their bayonets to win a decision. It doesn’t matter how much conviction and optimism the crew has in their bayonet skills – at the end of the day, it’s only going to add a few extra minutes of life into the inevitable battle against a much more powerful deflationary force.

In other words, “hope” isn’t a strategy that central bankers can use to any efficacy, and wishful thinking can only go so far. The market seems to agree, and it’s part of the reason that stocks have sold off this year. Even the “safe haven” gold trade is back, after being absent for much of the previous year.

Many critique assets such as gold, which is up 15% year-to-date, because it does not pay a dividend or interest.

This may be true, but at least gold does not “charge” interest, as bankers across the world are beginning to ponder.

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Mining

The Impact of COVID-19 Shutdowns on the Gold Supply Chain

Chains are only as strong as their weakest link. The COVID-19 shutdowns affected every link in the gold supply chain, from producers to end-users.

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Global Business

How COVID-19 Shutdowns Impact the Gold Supply Chain

Chains are only as strong as their weakest link—and recent COVID-19 shutdowns have affected every link in the gold supply chain, from producers to end-users.

Increased investor demand for gold coupled with a constrained supply has led to high prices and a bullish market, which has been operating despite these pressures on the supply chain.

Today’s infographic comes to us from Sprott Physical Bullion Trust and it outlines the gold supply chain and the impacts COVID shutdowns have had on the gold market.

The Ripple Effect: Stalling a Supply Chain

Disruptions to the gold supply chain have rippled all the way from the mine to the investor:

  1. Production
    Some gold mines halted production due to the high-risk to COVID-19 exposure, reducing the supply of gold. In many nations, operations had to shut down as a result of COVID-19 based legal restrictions.
  2. Delivery
    Strict travel regulations restricted the shipment of gold and increased the costs of delivery as less air routes were available and medical supplies were prioritized.
  3. Refinery
    Refineries depend on gold production for input. A reduction in incoming gold and the suspension of labor work shortened the supply of refined gold.
  4. Metal Traders
    Towards the other end of the gold supply chain, traders have faced both constrained supply and increased cost of delivery. These increased costs have translated over to end-users.
  5. The End Users
    Higher demand, lower supply, and increased costs have resulted in higher prices for buyers of gold.

Gold: A Safe Haven for Investors

As the virus spread around the world threatening populations and economies, investors turned to safe-haven investments such as gold to hedge against an economic lockdown.

This increase in investor demand affected the four primary financial markets for gold:

  1. Futures Contracts:
    A futures contract is an agreement for the delivery of gold at a fixed price in the future. These contracts are standardized by futures exchanges such as COMEX. During the initial periods of the pandemic, the price of gold futures spiked to reach a high of US$70 above the spot price.
  2. Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs):
    An ETF is an investment fund traded on stock exchanges. ETFs hold assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities such as gold. From the beginning of 2020 to June, the amount of gold held by ETFs massively increased, from 83 million oz to 103 million oz. The SPDR Gold Trust is a great example of how the surge in ETF demand for gold has played out—the organization was forced to lease gold from the Bank of England when it couldn’t buy enough from suppliers.
  3. Physical Gold for Commerce and Finance:
    The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) is a market where gold is physically traded over-the-counter. The LBMA recorded 6,573 transfers of gold amounting to 29.2 million oz ($46.4 billion)—all in March 2020. This was the largest amount of monthly transfers since 1996.
  4. Coins and Small Bars:
    One ounce American Gold Eagle coins serve as a good proxy for the demand for physical gold from retail investors. The COINGEAG Index, which tracks the premium price of 1 oz. Gold Eagles, spiked during the early stages of the lockdown.

Each one of these markets requires access to physical gold. COVID-19 restrictions have disrupted shipping and delivery options, making it harder to access gold. The market for gold has been functioning nonetheless.

So how does gold get to customers during a time of crisis?

Gold’s Journey: From the Ground to the Vault

Gold ore goes through several stages before being ready for the market.

  1. Processing:
    Gold must be released from other minerals to produce a doré bar—a semi-pure alloy of gold that needs further purification to meet investment standards. Doré bars are typically produced at mine sites and transported to refiners.
  2. Refining:
    Refineries are responsible for turning semi-pure gold alloys into refined, pure, gold. In addition to reprocessing doré bars from mines, refiners also recycle gold from scrap materials. Although gold mining is geographically diverse and occurs in all continents except Antarctica, there are only a handful of gold refineries around the world.
  3. Transportation:
    Once it’s refined, gold is transported to financial hubs around the world. There are three main ways gold travels the world, each with their own costs and benefits:

    • Commercial Flights:
      Cheapest of the three options, commercial flights are useful in transporting gold over established passenger routes. However, the volume of gold carried by a commercial flight is typically small and subject to spacing priorities.
    • Cargo Planes:
      At a relatively moderate cost, cargo planes carry medium to large amounts of gold along established trade routes. The space dedicated to cargo determines the cost, with higher volumes leading to higher shipping prices.
    • Chartered Airlines:
      Chartered airlines offer a wider range of travel routes with dedicated shipping space and services tailored to customer demand. However, they charge a high price for these conveniences.

After reaching its destination via air, armored trucks with security personnel move the gold to vaults and customers in financial hubs around the world.

The World’s Biggest Gold Hubs

The U.K.’s bullion banks hold the world’s biggest commercial stockpiles of gold, equal to 10 months of global gold mine output. London is the largest gold hub, with numerous vaults dedicated to gold and other precious metals.

Four of the largest gold refineries in the world are located in Switzerland, making it an important part of the gold supply chain. Hong Kong, Singapore, and Dubai are surprising additions and remain significant traders of gold despite having no mines within their borders.

COVID-19: The Perfect Storm for Gold?

As countries took stringent safety measures such as travel restrictions and border closures, the number of commercial flights dropped exponentially across the world. For the few commercial airlines that still operated, gold was a low-priority cargo as space was dedicated to medical supplies.

This impeded the flow of gold through the supply chain, increasing the cost of delivery and the price of gold. However, thanks to the diverse geography of gold mining, some countries did not halt production—this helped avoid a complete stall in the supply of gold.

The COVID-19 pandemic has created the perfect storm for gold by disrupting the global supply chain while investor demand for gold exploded. Despite heightened delivery risks and disruptions, the gold market has managed to continue operating thus far.

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Golden Bulls: Visualizing the Price of Gold from 1915-2020

We break down gold’s three major bull markets over the last century. This includes the current one, in which gold has hit 8-year highs.

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Golden Bulls

Golden Bulls: Visualizing the Price of Gold from 1915-2020

Some people view gold as a relic, a thing of kings, pirates, and myth. It does not produce income, sits in vaults, and adorns the necks and wrists of the wealthy.

But this too is just myth.

In fact, as a financial asset, gold’s value has shone over time with periods of exceptional performance, one of which may be occurring now.

Today’s infographic comes to us from Sprott Physical Gold Trust and outlines the history of the price of gold from 1915 to 2020 and three bull markets or “Golden bulls” since 1969, using monthly data from the London Bullion Market Association.

But first a little history…

The Gold Standard

*All figures are in USD

During the early days of the American Republic, the U.S. used the British gold standard to set the price of its currency. In 1791, it established the price of gold at $19.75 per ounce but also allowed redemption in silver. In 1834, it raised the price of gold to $20.67 per ounce. The price of gold would retain a nominal value through depressions, civil wars, and wars.

However, $20 today is not the same as $20 in the past. The U.S. dollar may have been convertible at a set price, but the amount of goods that it could buy varies year to year based on inflation. So for example from 1934 to 1938, one ounce of gold would cost $34, but $34 today would purchase a small fraction of an ounce of gold.

While the price of gold may appear cheap in the past, adjusted for inflation it is not as low as you would think. Governments would set the price of its currency against an asset to ensure the stability of prices, however if there would be too many claims against the underlying asset, that asset would run out and the currency would become worthless.

This threat would force the hands of governments to change the standards, as currency became more common and gold reserves more scarce.

An Era of Government Intervention

In the wake of the 1929 stock market crash, investors started redeeming U.S. dollars for its equivalent value in gold, removing currency from the economy. In order to stem the flow of funds into gold and the depletion of government gold reserves, in 1933, President Franklin D. Roosevelt limited the private ownership of gold to discourage hoarding and encourage investing. In 1934, Congress passed the Gold Reserve Act which prohibited the private ownership of gold and nominally raised the price of gold to $35 per ounce.

In 1944, the victorious Allied powers negotiated the Bretton Woods Agreement, making the U.S. dollar the official global reserve currency. The United States ensured an ounce of gold would be worth $35 in its currency⁠—at least until the onset of a stagnant economy in the early Seventies led to the official end of any real gold standard.

Golden Bull #1: December 1969 – January 1980

In 1969, the U.S. gold standard had risen to $42 per ounce in nominal terms, however a period of economic volatility would challenge and change U.S. monetary policy.

On August 15, 1971, President Richard Nixon mandated the Federal Reserve to stop honoring the U.S. dollar’s value in gold at a fixed value, abandoning the gold standard. In 1974, President Gerald Ford would once again allow the private ownership of gold bullion. Energy crises, soaring inflation, and high unemployment stagnated the economy.

By January 1980, the price of gold reached $2,234 per ounce in today’s dollars amidst an environment of double-digit inflation. Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker fought this inflation with double-digit interest rates which in turn slowed the economy, causing a recession.

The interest-rate-induced recession would herald in a new global economic boom that defined the Eighties and Nineties. The price of gold dropped to $753.96 per ounce by June 1985, as the economy improved.

From December 1969 to January 1980, gold rose from $285 to $2,234 per ounce, an increase of 684% over 122 months, in inflation-adjusted terms.

Golden Bull #2: August 1999 – August 2011

Expanding household incomes and ever declining interest rates under Federal Reserve chairman Greenspan pushed gold further down to a low of $377.44 per ounce by the end of April 2001.

Loose monetary policy and a reduced tax on capital gains spurred speculative investments into the new internet economy through a growing retail brokerage market and the emergence of venture capital. The tech bubble would eventually pop as these companies were unable to build sustainable businesses and investor money dried up.

Over the year of 2000, investors rushed to exit their speculative tech investments resulting in several market crashes. Then in September 2001, 9/11 happened, marking the beginning of a new era. Gold steadily rose during this period.

In 2008, the Global Financial Crisis shook financial markets and left a recession. Policy makers and central bankers embarked on a controversial policy of quantitative easing to support financial markets. The price of one ounce of gold reached new highs by the end of August 2011, as worries on debt levels mounted for the U.S. and other countries.

From August 1999 to August 2011, gold rose from $394 to $2,066 per ounce, an increase of 425% over 145 months, in inflation-adjusted terms.

Golden Bull #3?: November 2015 – May 2020

In the aftermath of the GFC, the Federal Reserve stoked an economic recovery with cheap money, seeing gold track to a low of $1,050 per ounce by December 2015. It was not until the election of a peculiar American president in 2016 that gold would rise again.

Pressure to increase interest rates, an aging debt-fueled economic recovery, a trade war with China, and the recent COVID-19 crisis has once again provoked economic uncertainty and a renewed interest in gold. With interest rates already at historic lows and quantitative easing as standard operating procedure, global economies are entering unprecedented territory.

There is still little insight into the direction of the economy but since November 2015 to May 2020, the price of gold has risen from $1,146 to $1,726 per ounce, 55% over 55 months.

Gold Going Forward

In an era of tech startups, ETFs, and algorithmic trading, many people consider gold to be a shiny paperweight—however, its performance over time against other assets shows it is far from this.

In 1915, an ounce of gold was worth $488.66 per ounce in today’s dollars and as of May 15, 2020, $1,751 per ounce. Gold has proven its value over time as companies, countries, and governments come and go.

“Golden Bulls” are no periods for idle idol worship. Gold will always be gold, in myth and in fact.

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