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Which Countries Believe WWIII is Coming?

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which countries believe WWIII could be coming?

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The Briefing

  • In every single country surveyed, the majority of respondents believed a world war could break out in coming years
  • Australia was the most pessimistic, and Japan was the most optimistic

Which Countries Believe WWIII Could be Coming?

After a pandemic, rampant inflation, a faltering global economy, and geopolitical flare-ups, it’s no surprise that people have a souring outlook on the future.

Even so, the results of this recent survey by Ipsos are eyebrow raising. In all 33 countries where polling took place, the majority of respondents said they believe a world war on the scale of WWI and WWII could break out between global superpowers in coming years.

Here’s a look at how various countries felt about the possibility of an impending global conflict:

Country% somewhat/strongly agreeChange from 2021 (p.p.)
🇦🇺 Australia81%+8
🇮🇪 Ireland80%n/a
🇲🇽 Mexico80%+8
🇵🇪 Peru80%+3
🇮🇳 India79%+3
🇨🇱 Chile78%+3
🇨🇴 Colombia78%+1
🇲🇾 Malaysia78%+4
🇹🇭 Thailand78%n/a
🇧🇪 Belgium77%+18
🇷🇴 Romania77%n/a
🇨🇦 Canada76%+13
🇺🇸 United States76%+6
🇫🇷 France75%+16
🇬🇧 Great Britain75%+19
🇳🇱 Netherlands75%+15
🇿🇦 South Africa75%+3
🇪🇸 Spain75%+5
🇦🇪 UAE75%n/a
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia74%+12
Global Country Average73%+10
🇧🇷 Brazil72%+10
🇦🇷 Argentina71%+5
🇹🇷 Turkey71%+8
🇵🇱 Poland70%+4
🇺🇦 Ukraine70%n/a
🇰🇷 South Korea69%+17
🇭🇺 Hungary67%+10
🇨🇳 China64%+6
🇮🇹 Italy64%+19
🇩🇪 Germany63%+17
🇮🇩 Indonesia63%n/a
🇸🇪 Sweden60%+11
🇯🇵 Japan51%+16

Japan was the least sure of an impending global conflict—an opinion that is almost certainly shaped by the country’s historical experience in WWII.

Australia was the most certain of an impending global conflict. The country has a unique relationship with Asian and Western countries, so geopolitical tensions between superpowers may resonate more in the Land Down Under.

The Power of Fear

Given the negative slant of stories covered by mass media and the types of stories that are most widely shared on social media platforms, it’s easy to understand how people have developed such a gloomy view of the future. But “bad vibes” aside, how could this perception translate into real world action?

For one, public opinion helps shape political priorities. A narrative of impending conflict could have an impact on geopolitical policy and relationships.

Another possibility is an increase in military spending across the board. 64% of people across 30 countries somewhat or strongly agree that their home government should beef up military spending “given the dangers in the world.” Aside from Ukraine, India (84%) and Poland (81%) ranked the highest in support of increasing military spending.

One other noteworthy finding is that 85% of people in the countries surveyed believe that the world needs new international agreements and institutions to deal with the challenges faced by the world today, and that world powers are unlikely to respect agreements made through international bodies. These findings are significant since war becomes more likely as cooperation between countries breaks down.

Where does this data come from?

Source: Ipsos, for Halifax International Security Forum

Data note: These are the results of a 33-market survey conducted by Ipsos on its Global Advisor online platform. Ipsos interviewed a total of 32,507 adults aged 18-74 in the United States, Canada, Malaysia, South Africa, and Turkey, 20-74 in Thailand, 21-74 in Indonesia, and 16-74 in the remaining markets between Friday, September 23 and Friday, October 7, 2022.

Editor’s note: Portions of the graphic and article have been amended to more accurately reflect the phrasing of the poll question. We appreciate the thoughtful feedback we received from our readers.

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Datastream

Charting the Rise of Cross-Border Money Transfers (2015-2023)

With over 280 million immigrants transferring billions of dollars annually, the remittance industry has become more valuable than ever.

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The Briefing

  • 79% of remittance payments in 2022 were made to low and middle-income countries.
  • Borderless, low-cost money transfer services like those provided by Wise can help immigrants support their families.

The Rise of Cross-Border Money Transfers

The remittance industry has experienced consistent growth recently, solidifying its position as a key component of the global financial landscape. Defined as the transfer of money from one country to another, usually to support a dependent, remittances play a pivotal role in providing food, healthcare, and education.

In this graphic, sponsored by Scottish Mortgage, we delve into the growth of the remittance industry, and the key factors propelling its success.

Powered by Immigration

With over 280 million immigrants worldwide, the remittance industry has an important place in our global society.

By exporting billions of dollars annually back to their starting nations, immigrants can greatly improve the livelihoods of their families and communities.

This is particularly true for low and middle-income countries, who in 2022 received, on average, 79% of remittance payments, according to Knomad, an initiative of the World Bank.

YearLow/Middle Income (US$ Billion)World Total (US$ Billion)
2015$447B$602B
2016$440B$596B
2017$477B$638B
2018$524B$694B
2019$546B$722B
2020$542B$711B
2021$597B$781B
2022$626B$794B
2023$639B$815B

India is one of the global leaders in receiving remittance payments. In 2022 alone, over $100 billion in remittances were sent to India, supporting many families. 

Enter Wise

As the global remittance industry continues to grow, it is important to acknowledge the role played by innovative money transfer operators like Wise.

With an inclusive, user-centric platform and competitive exchange rates, Wise makes it easy and cost-effective for millions of individuals to send money home, worldwide.

Connection Without Borders

But Wise doesn’t just offer remittance solutions, the company offers a host of account services and a payment infrastructure that has helped over 6.1 million active customers move over $30 billion in the first quarter of 2023 alone.

Want to invest in transformative companies like Wise?

Discover Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust, a portfolio of some of the world’s most exciting growth companies.

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