Infographic: Where Do the World's Banks Make the Most Money?
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Where the World’s Banks Make the Most Money

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Where the World's Banks Make the Most Money

Where the World’s Banks Make the Most Money

Profits in banking have been steadily on the rise since the financial crisis.

Just last year, the global banking industry cashed in an impressive $1.36 trillion in after-tax profits โ โ€” the highest total in the sector seen in the last 20 years.

What are the drivers behind revenue and profits in the financial services sector, and where do the biggest opportunities exist in the future?

Following the Money

Today’s infographic comes to us from McKinsey & Company, and it leverages proprietary insights from their Panorama database.

Using data stemming from more than 60 countries, we’ve broken down historical banking profits by region, while also visualizing key ratios that help demonstrate why specific countries are more profitable for the industry.

Finally, we’ve also looked at the particular geographic regions that may present the biggest opportunities in the future, and why they are relevant today.

Banking Profits, by Region

Before we look at what’s driving banking profits, let’s start with a breakdown of annual after-tax profits by region over time.

Banking Profit by Year and Region ($B)

 2009201020112012201320142015201620172018
United States$19$118$176$263$268$263$291$275$270$403
China$95$135$174$225$255$278$278$270$301$333
Western Europe$78$34$21-$70$28$95$154$159$186$198
Rest of World$196$243$265$285$309$327$348$361$387$421
Global ($B)$388$530$635$703$859$963$1,070$1,065$1,144$1,356

In 2018, the United States accounted for $403 billion of after-tax profits in the banking sector โ โ€” however, China sits in a very close second place, raking in $333 billion.

What’s Under the Hood?

While thereโ€™s no doubt that financial services can be profitable in almost any corner of the globe, what is less obvious is where this profit actually comes from.

The truth is that banking can vary greatly depending on location โ โ€” and what drives value for banks in one country may be completely different from what drives value in another.

Let’s look at data and ratios from four very different places to get a sense of how financial services markets can vary.

CountryRARC/GDPLoans Penetration/GDPMargins (RBRC/Total Loans)Risk Cost Margin
United States5.4%121%5.0%0.4%
China6.6%147%6.0%1.4%
Singapore13.0%316%4.6%0.4%
Finland3.4%133%2.8%0.2%
Global Average5.1%124%5.0%0.8%

1. RARC / GDP (Revenues After Risk Costs / GDP)
This ratio shows compares a countryโ€™s banking revenues to overall economic production, giving a sense of how important banking is to the economy. Using this, you can see that banking is far more important to Singapore’s economy than others in the table.

2. Loans Penetration / GDP
Loans penetration can be further broken up into retail loans and wholesale loans. The difference can be immediately seen when looking at data on China and the United States:

CountryRetail LoansWholesale LoansLoan Penetration (Total)
United States73%48%121%
China34%113%147%

In America, banks make loans primarily to the retail sector. In China, there’s a higher penetration on a wholesale basis โ€” usually loans being made to corporations or other such entities.

3. Margins (Revenues Before Risk Costs / Total Loans)
Margins made on lending is one way for bankers to gauge the potential of a market, and as you can see above, margins in the United States and China are both at (or above) the global average. Meanwhile, for comparison, Finland has margins that are closer to half of the global average.

4. Risk Cost Margin (Risk Cost / Total Loans)
Not surprisingly, China still holds higher risk cost margins than the global average. On the flipside, established markets like Singapore, Finland, and the U.S. all have risk margins below the global average.

Future Opportunities in Banking

While this data is useful at breaking down existing markets, it can also help to give us a sense of future opportunities as well.

Here are some of the geographic markets that have the potential to grow into key financial services markets in the future:

  1. Sub-Saharan Africa
    Despite having 16x the population of South Africa, the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa still generates fewer banking profits. With lower loan penetration rates and RARC/GDP ratios, there is significant potential to be found throughout the continent.
  2. India and Indonesia
    Compared to similar economies in Asia, both India and Indonesia present an interesting banking opportunity because of their high margins and low loan penetration rates.
  3. China
    While China has a high overall loan penetration rate, the retail loan category still holds much potential given the country’s population and growing middle class.

A Changing Landscape in Banking

As banks shift focus to face new market challenges, the next chapter of banking may be even more interesting than the last.

Add in the high stakes around digital transformation, aging populations, and new service opportunities, and the distance between winners and losers could lengthen even more.

Where will the money in banking be in the future?

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Mapped: GDP Growth Forecasts by Country, in 2023

The global economy faces an uncertain future in 2023. This year, GDP growth is projected to be 2.9%โ€”down from 3.2% in 2022.

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GDP Growth

Mapped: GDP Growth Forecasts by Country, in 2023

This was originally posted on Advisor Channel. Sign up to the free mailing list to get beautiful visualizations on financial markets that help advisors and their clients.

Since Russiaโ€™s invasion of Ukraine early last year, talk of global recession has dominated the outlook for 2023.

High inflation, spurred by rising energy costs, has tested GDP growth. Tightening monetary policy in the U.S., with interest rates jumping from roughly 0% to over 4% in 2022, has historically preceded a downturn about one to two years later.

For European economies, energy prices are critical. The good news is that prices have fallen recently since March highs, but the continent remains on shaky ground.

The above infographic maps GDP growth forecasts by country for the year ahead, based on projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) October 2022 Outlook and January 2023 update.

2023 GDP Growth Outlook

The world economy is projected to see just 2.9% GDP growth in 2023, down from 3.2% projected for 2022.

This is a 0.2% increase since the October 2022 Outlook thanks in part to Chinaโ€™s reopening, higher global demand, and slowing inflation projected across certain countries in the year ahead.

With this in mind, we show GDP growth forecasts for 191 jurisdictions given multiple economic headwindsโ€”and a few emerging bright spots in 2023.

Country / Region2023 Real GDP % Change (Projected)
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Albania2.5%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Algeria2.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ด Angola3.4%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Antigua and Barbuda5.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina*2.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Armenia3.5%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ผ Aruba2.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia*1.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น Austria1.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Azerbaijan2.5%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ญ Bahrain3.0%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฉ Bangladesh6.0%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ง Barbados5.0%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ Belarus0.2%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium0.4%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฟ Belize2.0%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฏ Benin6.2%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡น Bhutan4.3%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ด Bolivia3.2%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฆ Bosnia and Herzegovina2.0%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ผ Botswana4.0%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil*1.2%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ณ Brunei Darussalam3.3%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ Bulgaria3.0%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ซ Burkina Faso4.8%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฎ Burundi4.1%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ป Cabo Verde4.8%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Cameroon4.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ญ Cambodia6.2%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada*1.5%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ซ Central African Republic3.0%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฉ Chad3.4%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Chile-1.0%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China*5.3%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ด Colombia2.2%
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Comoros3.4%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ท Costa Rica2.9%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Cรดte d'Ivoire6.5%
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท Croatia3.5%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พ Cyprus2.5%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Czech Republic1.5%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Democratic Republic of the Congo6.7%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Denmark0.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฏ Djibouti5.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Dominica4.9%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ด Dominican Republic4.5%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡จ Ecuador2.7%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฌ Egypt*4.0%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ป El Salvador1.7%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ถ Equatorial Guinea-3.1%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ท Eritrea2.9%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช Estonia1.8%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Eswatini1.8%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡น Ethiopia5.3%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฏ Fiji6.9%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Finland0.5%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France*0.7%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฐ North Macedonia3.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Gabon3.7%
Georgia4.0%
Germany*0.1%
Ghana2.8%
Greece1.8%
Grenada3.6%
Guatemala3.2%
Guinea5.1%
Guinea-Bissau4.5%
Guyana25.2%
Haiti0.5%
Honduras3.5%
Hong Kong SAR3.9%
Hungary1.8%
Iceland2.9%
India*6.1%
Indonesia*4.8%
Iraq4.0%
Ireland4.0%
Iran*2.0%
Israel3.0%
Italy*0.6%
Jamaica3.0%
Japan*1.8%
Jordan2.7%
Kazakhstan*4.3%
Kenya5.1%
Kiribati2.4%
South Korea*1.7%
Kosovo3.5%
Kuwait2.6%
Kyrgyz Republic3.2%
Lao P.D.R.3.1%
Latvia1.6%
Lesotho1.6%
Liberia4.2%
Libya17.9%
Lithuania1.1%
Luxembourg1.1%
Macao SAR56.7%
Madagascar5.2%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ผ Malawi2.5%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡พ Malaysia*4.4%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ป Maldives6.1%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Mali5.3%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡น Malta3.3%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ญ Marshall Islands3.2%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ท Mauritania4.8%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡บ Mauritius5.4%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico*1.7%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Micronesia2.9%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Moldova2.3%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ณ Mongolia5.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ช Montenegro2.5%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Morocco3.1%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Mozambique4.9%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Myanmar3.3%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Namibia3.2%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ท Nauru2.0%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ต Nepal5.0%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands*0.6%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ New Zealand1.9%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Nicaragua3.0%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ช Niger7.3%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Nigeria*3.2%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด Norway2.6%
๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ฒ Oman4.1%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ Pakistan*2.0%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ผ Palau12.3%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฆ Panama4.0%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฌ Papua New Guinea5.1%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡พ Paraguay4.3%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ช Peru2.6%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ญ Philippines*5.0%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ Poland*0.3%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal0.7%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ท Puerto Rico0.4%
๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Qatar2.4%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Republic of Congo4.6%
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด Romania3.1%
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Russia*0.3%
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ผ Rwanda6.7%
๐Ÿ‡ผ๐Ÿ‡ธ Samoa4.0%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฒ San Marino0.8%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡น Sรฃo Tomรฉ and Prรญncipe2.6%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Saudi Arabia*2.6%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ณ Senegal8.1%
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ Serbia2.7%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡จ Seychelles5.2%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Sierra Leone3.3%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Singapore2.3%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Slovak Republic1.5%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Slovenia1.7%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ง Solomon Islands2.6%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ด Somalia3.1%
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ South Africa*1.2%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ธ South Sudan5.6%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain*1.1%
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Sri Lanka-3.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ณ St. Kitts and Nevis4.8%
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡จ St. Lucia5.8%
๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡จ St. Vincent and the Grenadines6.0%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Sudan2.6%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ท Suriname2.3%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Sweden-0.1%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ Switzerland0.8%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ Taiwan2.8%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฏ Tajikistan4.0%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฟ Tanzania5.2%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ญ Thailand*3.7%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ธ The Bahamas4.1%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ฒ The Gambia6.0%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฑ Timor-Leste4.2%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฌ Togo6.2%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ด Tonga2.9%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡น Trinidad and Tobago3.5%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ณ Tunisia1.6%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Turkey*3.0%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฒ Turkmenistan2.3%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ป Tuvalu3.5%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Uganda5.9%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ UkraineN/A
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช United Arab Emirates4.2%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง United Kingdom*-0.6%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฒ U.S.*1.4%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡พ Uruguay3.6%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Uzbekistan4.7%
๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡บ Vanuatu3.1%
๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ช Venezuela6.5%
๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ณ Vietnam6.2%
West Bank and Gaza3.5%
๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช Yemen3.3%
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Zambia4.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ผ Zimbabwe2.8%

*Reflect updated figures from the January 2023 IMF Update.

The U.S. is forecast to see 1.4% GDP growth in 2023, up from 1.0% seen in the last October projection.

Still, signs of economic weakness can be seen in the growing wave of tech layoffs, foreshadowed as a white-collar or โ€˜Patagonia-vestโ€™ recession. Last year, 88,000 tech jobs were cut and this trend has continued into 2023. Major financial firms have also followed suit. Still, unemployment remains fairly steadfast, at 3.5% as of December 2022. Going forward, concerns remain around inflation and the path of interest rate hikes, though both show signs of slowing.

Across Europe, the average projected GDP growth rate is 0.7% for 2023, a sharp decline from the 2.1% forecast for last year.

Both Germany and Italy are forecast to see slight growth, at 0.1% and 0.6%, respectively. Growth forecasts were revised upwards since the IMF’s October release. However, an ongoing energy crisis exposes the manufacturing sector to vulnerabilities, with potential spillover effects to consumers and businesses, and overall Euro Area growth.

China remains an open question. In 2023, growth is predicted to rise 5.2%, higher than many large economies. While its real estate sector has shown signs of weakness, the recent opening on January 8th, following 1,016 days of zero-Covid policy, could boost demand and economic activity.

A Long Way to Go

The IMF has stated that 2023 will feel like a recession for much of the global economy. But whether it is headed for a recovery or a sharper decline remains unknown.

Today, two factors propping up the global economy are lower-than-expected energy prices and resilient private sector balance sheets. European natural gas prices have sunk to levels seen before the war in Ukraine. During the height of energy shocks, firms showed a notable ability to withstand astronomical energy prices squeezing their finances. They are also sitting on significant cash reserves.

On the other hand, inflation is far from over. To counter this effect, many central banks will have to use measures to rein in prices. This may in turn have a dampening effect on economic growth and financial markets, with unknown consequences.

As economic data continues to be released over the year, there may be a divergence between consumer sentiment and whether things are actually changing in the economy. Where the economy is heading in 2023 will be anyone’s guess.

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