Economy
When Will Your Country Recover from the Pandemic?
What started as a novel virus in China quickly became a sweeping disease that shut down the world and put a 1.5 year halt on the global economy.
But while some countries’ economies are already back to normal, others are lagging far behind.
COVID-19 Recovery Timelines, by OECD Country
This chart using data from the OECD anticipates when countries will economically recover from the global pandemic, based on getting back to pre-pandemic levels of GDP per capita.
Note: The categorization of ‘advanced’ or ‘emerging’ economy was determined by OECD standards.
The Leaders of the Pack
At the top, China and the U.S. are recovering at breakneck speed. In fact, recovering is the wrong word for China, as they reached pre-pandemic GDP per capita levels just after Q2’2020.
On the other end, some countries are looking at years—not months—when it comes to their recovery date. Saudi Arabia isn’t expected to recover until after Q1’2024, and Argentina is estimated to have an even slower recovery, occurring only after Q2’2026.
Country | Recovery | Economy |
---|---|---|
🇧🇪 Belgium | After Q4 2022 | Advanced |
🇸🇪 Sweden | After Q4 2021 | Advanced |
🇸🇰 Slovakia | After Q4 2021 | Advanced |
🇳🇿 New Zealand | After Q4 2021 | Advanced |
🇩🇪 Germany | After Q4 2021 | Advanced |
🇪🇪 Estonia | After Q4 2021 | Advanced |
🇩🇰 Denmark | After Q4 2021 | Advanced |
🇮🇸 Iceland | After Q3 2023 | Advanced |
🇸🇮 Slovenia | After Q3 2022 | Advanced |
🇵🇹 Portugal | After Q3 2022 | Advanced |
🇫🇷 France | After Q3 2022 | Advanced |
🇦🇹 Austria | After Q3 2022 | Advanced |
🇵🇱 Poland | After Q3 2021 | Advanced |
🇳🇴 Norway | After Q3 2021 | Advanced |
🇱🇺 Luxembourg | After Q3 2021 | Advanced |
🇱🇻 Latvia | After Q3 2021 | Advanced |
🇯🇵 Japan | After Q3 2021 | Advanced |
🇫🇮 Finland | After Q3 2021 | Advanced |
🇪🇸 Spain | After Q2 2023 | Advanced |
🇬🇧 United Kingdom | After Q2 2022 | Advanced |
🇳🇱 Netherlands | After Q2 2022 | Advanced |
🇮🇹 Italy | After Q2 2022 | Advanced |
🇬🇷 Greece | After Q2 2022 | Advanced |
🇨🇿 Czech Republic | After Q2 2022 | Advanced |
🇨🇦 Canada | After Q2 2022 | Advanced |
🇺🇸 United States | After Q2 2021 | Advanced |
🇰🇷 South Korea | After Q2 2021 | Advanced |
🇮🇪 Ireland | After Q2 2021 | Advanced |
🇨🇭 Switzerland | After Q1 2022 | Advanced |
🇮🇱 Israel | After Q1 2022 | Advanced |
🇭🇺 Hungary | After Q1 2022 | Advanced |
🇦🇺 Australia | After Q1 2022 | Advanced |
🇱🇹 Lithuania | After Q1 2021 | Advanced |
🇿🇦 South Africa | After Q4 2022 | Emerging |
🇮🇩 Indonesia | After Q4 2021 | Emerging |
🇮🇳 India | After Q4 2021 | Emerging |
🇲🇽 Mexico | After Q3 2023 | Emerging |
🇨🇴 Colombia | After Q3 2022 | Emerging |
🇧🇷 Brazil | After Q3 2022 | Emerging |
🇨🇱 Chile | After Q3 2021 | Emerging |
🇹🇷 Turkey | After Q3 2020 | Emerging |
🇦🇷 Argentina | After Q2 2026 | Emerging |
🇨🇷 Costa Rica | After Q2 2023 | Emerging |
🇷🇺 Russia | After Q2 2021 | Emerging |
🇨🇳 China | After Q2 2020 | Emerging |
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | After Q1 2024 | Emerging |
Most countries will hit pre-pandemic levels of GDP per capita by the end of 2022. The slowest recovering advanced economies—Iceland and Spain—aren’t expected to bounce back until 2023.
Four emerging economies are speeding ahead, and are predicted to get back on their feet by the end of this year or slightly later (if they haven’t already):
- 🇷🇺 Russia: after Q2’2021
- 🇨🇱 Chile: after Q3’2021
- 🇮🇳 India: after Q4’2021
- 🇮🇩 Indonesia: after Q4’2021
However, no recovery is guaranteed, and many countries will continue face setbacks as waves of COVID-19 variants hit—India, for example, was battling its biggest wave as recently as May 2021.
Trailing Behind
Why are some countries recovering faster than others? One factor seems to be vaccination rates.
Country | Doses Administered per 100 People | Total Doses Administered | Percent of Population Fully Vaccinated |
---|---|---|---|
World | 47 | 3,573,004,544 | – |
🇦🇪 U.A.E. | 166 | 16,194,526 | 69% |
🇲🇹 Malta | 143 | 718,418 | 71% |
🇧🇭 Bahrain | 136 | 2,224,916 | 63% |
🇮🇸 Iceland | 129 | 466,434 | 70% |
🇺🇾 Uruguay | 129 | 4,458,394 | 58% |
🇨🇱 Chile | 128 | 24,248,545 | 60% |
🇦🇼 Aruba | 125 | 133,421 | 59% |
🇶🇦 Qatar | 123 | 3,474,944 | 56% |
🇬🇧 United Kingdom | 122 | 81,438,892 | 53% |
Mongolia | 121 | 3,912,996 | 56% |
Israel | 121 | 10,959,633 | 58% |
Canada | 118 | 44,293,659 | 48% |
Singapore | 113 | 6,440,735 | 42% |
Belgium | 111 | 12,700,513 | 46% |
Curaçao | 108 | 170,857 | 51% |
Denmark | 108 | 6,266,892 | 43% |
Maldives | 106 | 561,748 | 46% |
Netherlands | 105 | 18,273,238 | 43% |
Spain | 105 | 49,585,197 | 49% |
Hungary | 104 | 10,155,466 | 54% |
Portugal | 103 | 10,579,259 | 44% |
Luxembourg | 102 | 633,974 | 41% |
Germany | 102 | 84,989,850 | 45% |
China | 102 | 1,426,347,000 | – |
United States | 101 | 336,054,953 | 48% |
Ireland | 101 | 4,995,719 | 44% |
Austria | 100 | 8,866,474 | 44% |
Italy | 99 | 59,966,908 | 41% |
Switzerland | 95 | 8,133,486 | 42% |
France | 93 | 62,321,355 | 40% |
Sweden | 93 | 9,536,164 | 36% |
Finland | 90 | 4,951,925 | 26% |
Norway | 89 | 4,785,937 | 31% |
Greece | 89 | 9,560,592 | 42% |
Lithuania | 88 | 2,459,605 | 42% |
Czech Republic | 88 | 9,346,397 | 38% |
Poland | 85 | 32,413,199 | 42% |
Dominican Rep. | 84 | 9,066,151 | 34% |
Estonia | 79 | 1,049,416 | 34% |
Serbia | 78 | 5,415,434 | 38% |
Slovenia | 78 | 1,626,072 | 36% |
Cyprus | 76 | 916,819 | 35% |
Turkey | 74 | 61,747,399 | 23% |
Slovakia | 73 | 4,003,639 | 33% |
Mauritius | 71 | 901,530 | 24% |
Croatia | 71 | 2,870,866 | 32% |
Macau | 69 | 434,726 | 27% |
Cuba | 69 | 7,767,601 | 17% |
Latvia | 66 | 1,264,433 | 33% |
Bhutan | 64 | 487,060 | 0.02% |
Saudi Arabia | 63 | 21,556,314 | 9.2% |
Hong Kong | 62 | 4,638,908 | 26% |
Barbados | 59 | 168,955 | 25% |
Argentina | 58 | 26,134,815 | 11% |
Brazil | 57 | 120,726,752 | 16% |
Kuwait | 56 | 2,375,455 | 22% |
Morocco | 56 | 20,584,812 | 26% |
Cambodia | 56 | 9242925 | 24% |
El Salvador | 53 | 3,422,214 | 20% |
Japan | 53 | 66,714,528 | 20% |
Costa Rica | 52 | 2,606,791 | 16% |
French Polynesia | 51 | 141,523 | 24% |
Montenegro | 49 | 304,655 | 23% |
Fiji | 47 | 419,998 | 8% |
Romania | 47 | 9,092,141 | 24% |
Guyana | 46 | 363,442 | 16% |
Colombia | 45 | 22,624,568 | 19% |
Jordan | 45 | 4,498,748 | 18% |
Azerbaijan | 42 | 4,242,727 | 17% |
Panama | 42 | 1,781,542 | 15% |
Mexico | 41 | 52,704,960 | 17% |
Malaysia | 41 | 13,107,681 | 13% |
South Korea | 41 | 21,157,612 | 12% |
New Caledonia | 40 | 115,218 | 19% |
Ecuador | 40 | 6,890,876 | 10% |
Kazakhstan | 39 | 7,303,180 | 14% |
Suriname | 38 | 222,377 | 8% |
Australia | 38 | 9,631,807 | 10% |
Belize | 38 | 147,080 | 10% |
Albania | 37 | 1,052,108 | 16% |
Russia | 35 | 50,383,638 | 14% |
Oman | 35 | 1,728,618 | 6% |
North Macedonia | 34 | 713,114 | 13% |
Samoa | 32 | 62,161 | 4.7% |
Moldova | 31 | 834,527 | 13% |
Grenada | 31 | 35,072 | 13% |
Peru | 31 | 9,954,429 | 12% |
Saint Lucia | 30 | 54,361 | 13% |
Sri Lanka | 29 | 6,431,100 | 7.3% |
India | 29 | 391,340,491 | 6% |
New Zealand | 29 | 1,404,343 | 11% |
Brunei | 28 | 121,241 | 4.3% |
Tonga | 27 | 28,667 | – |
Bulgaria | 27 | 1,896,574 | 12% |
Bolivia | 27 | 3,117,521 | 7% |
Trinidad and Tobago | 27 | 375,924 | 11% |
Bahamas | 25 | 97,992 | 10% |
Lebanon | 25 | 1,693,164 | 9% |
Laos | 24 | 1,708,981 | 9% |
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | 23 | 25,509 | – |
Cape Verde | 23 | 124,958 | 3% |
Timor-Leste | 22 | 281,283 | 3% |
Indonesia | 21 | 55,819,781 | 6% |
Equatorial Guinea | 21 | 279,112 | 9% |
West Bank & Gaza | 20 | 958,519 | 9% |
Thailand | 19 | 13,533,717 | 5% |
Taiwan | 19 | 4,603,639 | 1% |
Tunisia | 19 | 2,206,980 | 6% |
São Tomé and Príncipe | 18 | 37,716 | 5% |
Bosnia and Herzegovina | 14 | 470,218 | 5% |
Venezuela | 14 | 4,000,000 | 4% |
Nepal | 13 | 3,730,344 | 4% |
Philippines | 13 | 14,074,514 | 4% |
Botswana | 12 | 284,676 | 5% |
Honduras | 12 | 1,172,830 | 1% |
Paraguay | 12 | 826,642 | 2% |
Belarus | – | – | – |
Zimbabwe | 11 | 1,575,539 | 4% |
Comoros | 11 | 90,880 | – |
Uzbekistan | 11 | 3,541,442 | 4% |
Pakistan | 10 | 2,166,0650 | 2% |
Jamaica | 9.8 | 290,382 | 4% |
Armenia | 8.8 | 260,813 | 2% |
Ukraine | 8.8 | 3,899,890 | 3% |
Iran | 7.9 | 6,530,124 | 3% |
Georgia | 7.8 | 289,399 | 3% |
South Africa | 7.7 | 4,535,222 | 3% |
Guatemala | 6.9 | 1,146,477 | 1% |
Namibia | 6.7 | 166,616 | 1% |
Myanmar | 6.5* | 3,500,000 | – |
Libya | 6.3 | 425,119 | – |
Bangladesh | 6.2 | 10,108,224 | 3% |
Guinea | 6 | 770,688 | 2% |
Algeria | – | – | – |
Eswatini | 5.2 | 60,069 | 2% |
Rwanda | 5.1 | 646,909 | 2% |
Senegal | 5.1 | 823,610 | 2% |
Angola | 4.9 | 1,558,201 | 2% |
Egypt | 4.8 | 4,851,349 | 1% |
Vanuatu | 4.7 | 14,026 | – |
Vietnam | 4.3 | 4,185,623 | 0.3% |
Togo | – | – | – |
Tajikistan | 4.3 | 397,694 | 0.2% |
Ghana | 4.2 | 1,265,306 | 1% |
Mauritania | 4 | 182,642 | 0.3% |
Solomon Islands | 3.8 | 25,628 | 1% |
Ivory Coast | 3.3 | 861,278 | – |
Gabon | 3.3 | 72,351 | 1% |
Republic of the Congo | 3 | 163,742 | – |
Kenya | 2.9 | 1,550,389 | 1% |
Sierra Leone | 2.9 | 225,380 | 0.2% |
Iraq | 2.8 | 1,087,866 | 1% |
Djibouti | 2.8 | 26,796 | – |
Afghanistan | 2.7 | 1,024,168 | 1% |
Kyrgyzstan | 2.7 | 173,700 | 1.% |
Lesotho | 2.7 | 56,322 | 1% |
Nicaragua | – | – | – |
Uganda | 2.4 | 1,079,943 | – |
Malawi | 2.3 | 428,407 | 0.2% |
Nigeria | 2 | 3,938,945 | 1% |
Liberia | 1.9 | 95,423 | 0.2% |
Ethiopia | 1.9 | 2,090,997 | – |
Gambia | 1.9 | 43,557 | 1% |
Niger | 1.8 | 423,335 | 0.3% |
Mozambique | 1.7 | 508,184 | 1% |
Central African Republic | 1.7 | 78,685 | – |
Somalia | 1.6 | 249,790 | 1% |
Sudan | 1.6 | 677,957 | 0.3% |
Zambia | 1.4 | 243,818 | 0.3% |
Guinea-Bissau | 1.3 | 25,012 | 0.1% |
Yemen | 1 | 297,405 | <0.1% |
Mali | 1 | 196,862 | 0.3% |
Syria | 0.8 | 131,221 | 0.1% |
Madagascar | 0.7 | 197,001 | – |
Turkmenistan | – | – | – |
Cameroon | 0.6 | 163,921 | 0.1% |
Papua New Guinea | 0.6 | 51,170 | <0.1% |
South Sudan | 0.5 | 55,915 | <0.1% |
Benin | 0.4 | 52,563 | 0.1% |
Burkina Faso | 0.2 | 33,960 | <0.1% |
Chad | 0.2 | 24,459 | <0.1% |
Congo | 0.1 | 73,764 | <0.1% |
As of July 16th, 2021.
The higher the rate of vaccination, the harder it is for COVID-19 to spread. This gives countries a chance to loosen restrictions, let people get back to work and regular life, and fuel the economy. Additionally, the quicker vaccines are rolled out, the less time there is for variants to mutate.
Another factor is the overall strength of a country’s healthcare infrastructure. More advanced economies often have more ICU capacity, more efficient dissemination of public health information, and, simply, more hospital staff. These traits help better handle the pandemic, with reduced cases, less restrictions, and a speedy recovery.
Finally, the level of government support and fiscal stimulus injected into different economies has determined how swiftly they’ve recovered. Similar to the disparity in vaccine rollouts, there was a significant fiscal stimulus gap, especially during the heat of the pandemic.
Recovering to Normal?
Many experts and government leaders are now advocating for funneling more money into healthcare infrastructure and disease research preventatively. The increased funding now would help stop worldwide shut downs and needless loss of life in future.
Time will tell when we return to “normal” everywhere, however, normal will likely never be the same. Many impacts of the global pandemic will stay with us over the long term.
Economy
G20 Inflation Rates: Feb 2024 vs COVID Peak
We visualize inflation rates across G20 countries as of Feb 2024, in the context of their COVID-19 pandemic peak.
How Far Have Inflation Rates Fallen Across the G20?
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
A major economic consequence that arose in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic was high inflation. In many countries, inflation rates reached double-digits, which is significantly higher than the 2-3% typically targeted by central banks.
Generally speaking, an extended period of fast rising prices is not optimal because it erodes the purchasing power of money. This makes everyday essentials like groceries, rent, and gas more expensive.
To see how inflation is currently faring, we’ve visualized annual inflation rates across G20 countries as of February 2024, in the context of their pandemic peak. This data was sourced from Trading Economics and can also be found in the table below.
Country | Inflation (%, Feb 2024) | Inflation (%, COVID peak) | Date of Peak |
---|---|---|---|
🇦🇷 Argentina | 276.0 | -- | -- |
🇹🇷 Turkey | 67.1 | 85.5 | Oct 2022 |
🇷🇺 Russia | 7.7 | 17.8 | Apr 2022 |
🇿🇦 South Africa | 5.6 | 7.8 | Jul 2022 |
🇮🇳 India | 5.1 | 7.8 | Apr 2022 |
🇧🇷 Brazil | 4.5 | 12.1 | Apr 2022 |
🇲🇽 Mexico | 4.4 | 8.7 | Sept 2022 |
🇦🇺 Australia | 4.1 | 7.8 | Dec 2022 |
🇬🇧 United Kingdom | 3.4 | 11.1 | Oct 2022 |
🇺🇸 United States | 3.2 | 9.1 | Jun 2022 |
🇰🇷 South Korea | 3.1 | 6.3 | Jul 2022 |
🇫🇷 France | 3.0 | 6.3 | Feb 2023 |
🇨🇦 Canada | 2.8 | 8.1 | Jun 2022 |
🇯🇵 Japan | 2.8 | 4.3 | Jan 2023 |
🇪🇸 Spain | 2.8 | 10.8 | Jul 2022 |
🇮🇩 Indonesia | 2.8 | 6 | Sept 2022 |
🇩🇪 Germany | 2.5 | 8.8 | Nov 2022 |
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 1.8 | 6.2 | Jun 2021 |
🇮🇹 Italy | 0.8 | 11.8 | Oct 2022 |
🇨🇳 China | 0.7 | 2.8 | Sept 2022 |
Notes: Spain is a permanent guest of the G20. Australia’s latest inflation rate is as of Dec 2023.
Unlike other G20 nations, Argentina’s inflation rate has only gone up since the pandemic ended. This is largely due to the country’s history of printing money to compensate for government overspending.
One area hit particularly hard is food prices. According to a local consultancy, the price of beef to consumers rose by 40% to 70% between July to August 2023.
Learn More About Inflation in 2024
If you want to see more graphics on inflation, check out this global map that visualizes inflation forecasts for every country in 2024.
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