Markets
Visualizing the World’s Biggest Exporters in 2017
Visualizing the World’s Biggest Exporters in 2017
For the first time in decades, trade barriers appear to be increasing around the world.
Brexit negotiations have helped to create an environment of uncertainty, while the introduction of American tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum – along with the resulting retaliatory measures – have created more tangible barriers to international trade.
Now, there is now even rhetoric coming from D.C. about adding tariffs to $200 billion of goods coming from China, and NAFTA renegotiations have long been on President Trump’s agenda.
The G7 meeting in Canada also gave recent indications on the state of the existing trade atmosphere. For the first time in recent memory, the meeting of Western leaders was tense, resulting in name-calling and accusations, giving the impression that the worst could be yet to come.
Who are the World’s Biggest Exporters?
As the environment around trade shifts, it’s worth noting the countries that have the biggest stakes in international trade to start with.
Both imports and exports matter, but today’s map from HowMuch.net focuses exclusively on the world’s biggest exporters. Each country is re-sized based on the latest export data from the World Trade Organization for 2017, and countries with fewer than $20 billion in exports are excluded altogether.
Here are the 10 countries with the most exports in 2017:
| Rank | Country | Exports (2017) |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | China | $2,263B |
| #2 | United States | $1,547B |
| #3 | Germany | $1,448B |
| #4 | Japan | $698B |
| #5 | Netherlands | $652B |
| #6 | South Korea | $574B |
| #7 | Hong Kong | $550B |
| #8 | France | $535B |
| #9 | Italy | $506B |
| #10 | United Kingdom | $445B |
China leads the way with $2.26 trillion in exports per year, but the country also has a sizable population of nearly 1.4 billion.
Germany, which is a massive exporter of automobiles, sends a whopping $1.45 trillion of goods abroad every year despite only having 83 million people. That’s an astounding $18,000 per person in exports.
The United States is the world’s second largest exporter in terms of absolute value. However, if you compare it on a per capita basis to a nation like Germany, it’s clear that the U.S. relies less on exports overall. The country exported $1.55 trillion in goods in 2017, about $4,800 per person.
Markets
3 Reasons Why AI Enthusiasm Differs from the Dot-Com Bubble
Valuations are much lower than they were during the dot-com bubble, but what else sets the current AI enthusiasm apart?
3 Reasons Why AI Enthusiasm Differs from the Dot-Com Bubble
Artificial intelligence, like the internet during the dot-com bubble, is getting a lot of attention these days. In the second quarter of 2023, 177 S&P 500 companies mentioned “AI” during their earnings call, nearly triple the five-year average.
Not only that, companies that mentioned “AI” saw their stock price rise 13.3% from December 2022 to September 2023, compared to 1.5% for those that didn’t.
In this graphic from New York Life Investments, we look at current market conditions to find out if AI could be the next dot-com bubble.
Comparing the Dot-Com Bubble to Today
In the late 1990s, frenzied optimism for internet-related stocks led to a rapid rise in valuations and an eventual market crash in the early 2000s. By the time the market hit rock bottom, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index had dropped 82% from its peak.
The growing enthusiasm for AI has some concerned that it could be the next dot-com bubble. But here are three reasons that the current environment is different.
1. Valuations Are Lower
Stock valuations are much lower than they were at the peak of the dot-com bubble. For example, the forward price-to-earnings ratio of the Nasdaq 100 is significantly lower than it was in 2000.
| Date | Forward P/E Ratio |
|---|---|
| March 2000 | 60.1x |
| November 2023 | 26.4x |
Lower valuations are an indication that investors are putting more emphasis on earnings and stocks are less at risk of being overvalued.
2. Investors Are More Hesitant
During the dot-com bubble, flows to equity funds increased by 76% from 1999 to 2000.
| Year | Combined ETF and Mutual Fund Flows to Equity Funds |
|---|---|
| 1997 | $231B |
| 1998 | $163B |
| 1999 | $200B |
| 2000 | $352B |
| 2001 | $63B |
| 2002 | $14B |
Source: Investment Company Institute
In contrast, equity fund flows have been negative in 2022 and 2023.
| Year | Combined ETF and Mutual Fund Flows to Equity Funds |
|---|---|
| 2021 | $295B |
| 2022 | -$54B |
| 2023* | -$137B |
Source: Investment Company Institute
*2023 data is from January to September.
Based on fund flows, investors appear hesitant of stocks, rather than overly exuberant.
3. Companies Are More Established
Leading up to the internet bubble, the number of technology IPOs increased substantially.
| Year | Number of Technology IPOs | Median Age |
|---|---|---|
| 1997 | 174 | 8 |
| 1998 | 113 | 7 |
| 1999 | 370 | 4 |
| 2000 | 261 | 5 |
| 2001 | 24 | 9 |
| 2002 | 20 | 9 |
Many of these companies were relatively new and, at the peak of the bubble in 2000, only 14% of them were profitable.
In recent years, there have been far fewer tech IPOs as companies wait for more positive market conditions. And those that have gone public, the median age is much higher.
| Year | Number of Technology IPOs | Median Age |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 48 | 12 |
| 2021 | 126 | 12 |
| 2022 | 6 | 15 |
Ultimately, many of the companies benefitting from AI are established companies that are already publicly traded. New, unproven companies are much less common in public markets.
Navigating Modern Tech Amid Dot-Com Bubble Worries
Valuations, equity flows, and the shortage of tech IPOs all suggest that AI isn’t shaping up to be the next dot-com bubble.
However, risk is still present in the market. For instance, only 33% of tech companies that went public in 2022 were profitable. Investors can help manage their risk by keeping a diversified portfolio rather than choosing individual stocks.
Explore more insights from New York Life Investments.
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