Connect with us

Markets

Visualizing the World’s Biggest Exporters in 2017

Published

on

Visualizing the World's Biggest Exporters in 2017

Visualizing the World’s Biggest Exporters in 2017

For the first time in decades, trade barriers appear to be increasing around the world.

Brexit negotiations have helped to create an environment of uncertainty, while the introduction of American tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum – along with the resulting retaliatory measures – have created more tangible barriers to international trade.

Now, there is now even rhetoric coming from D.C. about adding tariffs to $200 billion of goods coming from China, and NAFTA renegotiations have long been on President Trump’s agenda.

The G7 meeting in Canada also gave recent indications on the state of the existing trade atmosphere. For the first time in recent memory, the meeting of Western leaders was tense, resulting in name-calling and accusations, giving the impression that the worst could be yet to come.

Who are the World’s Biggest Exporters?

As the environment around trade shifts, it’s worth noting the countries that have the biggest stakes in international trade to start with.

Both imports and exports matter, but today’s map from HowMuch.net focuses exclusively on the world’s biggest exporters. Each country is re-sized based on the latest export data from the World Trade Organization for 2017, and countries with fewer than $20 billion in exports are excluded altogether.

Here are the 10 countries with the most exports in 2017:

RankCountryExports (2017)
#1China$2,263B
#2United States$1,547B
#3Germany$1,448B
#4Japan$698B
#5Netherlands$652B
#6South Korea$574B
#7Hong Kong$550B
#8France$535B
#9Italy$506B
#10United Kingdom$445B

China leads the way with $2.26 trillion in exports per year, but the country also has a sizable population of nearly 1.4 billion.

Germany, which is a massive exporter of automobiles, sends a whopping $1.45 trillion of goods abroad every year despite only having 83 million people. That’s an astounding $18,000 per person in exports.

The United States is the world’s second largest exporter in terms of absolute value. However, if you compare it on a per capita basis to a nation like Germany, it’s clear that the U.S. relies less on exports overall. The country exported $1.55 trillion in goods in 2017, about $4,800 per person.

Click for Comments

Markets

3 Reasons Why AI Enthusiasm Differs from the Dot-Com Bubble

Valuations are much lower than they were during the dot-com bubble, but what else sets the current AI enthusiasm apart?

Published

on

Two bubbles sized according to the forward p/e ratio of the Nasdaq 100 Index during the dot-com bubble (60.1X) and the current AI Enthusiasm (26.4x).

Published

on

The following content is sponsored by New York Life Investments

3 Reasons Why AI Enthusiasm Differs from the Dot-Com Bubble

Artificial intelligence, like the internet during the dot-com bubble, is getting a lot of attention these days. In the second quarter of 2023, 177 S&P 500 companies mentioned “AI” during their earnings call, nearly triple the five-year average.

Not only that, companies that mentioned “AI” saw their stock price rise 13.3% from December 2022 to September 2023, compared to 1.5% for those that didn’t.

In this graphic from New York Life Investments, we look at current market conditions to find out if AI could be the next dot-com bubble.

Comparing the Dot-Com Bubble to Today

In the late 1990s, frenzied optimism for internet-related stocks led to a rapid rise in valuations and an eventual market crash in the early 2000s. By the time the market hit rock bottom, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index had dropped 82% from its peak.

The growing enthusiasm for AI has some concerned that it could be the next dot-com bubble. But here are three reasons that the current environment is different.

1. Valuations Are Lower

Stock valuations are much lower than they were at the peak of the dot-com bubble. For example, the forward price-to-earnings ratio of the Nasdaq 100 is significantly lower than it was in 2000.

DateForward P/E Ratio
March 200060.1x
November 202326.4x

Source: CNBC, Barron’s

Lower valuations are an indication that investors are putting more emphasis on earnings and stocks are less at risk of being overvalued.

2. Investors Are More Hesitant

During the dot-com bubble, flows to equity funds increased by 76% from 1999 to 2000.

YearCombined ETF and Mutual Fund Flows to Equity Funds
1997$231B
1998$163B
1999$200B
2000$352B
2001$63B
2002$14B

In contrast, equity fund flows have been negative in 2022 and 2023.

YearCombined ETF and Mutual Fund Flows to Equity Funds
2021$295B
2022-$54B
2023*-$137B

Source: Investment Company Institute
*2023 data is from January to September.

Based on fund flows, investors appear hesitant of stocks, rather than overly exuberant.

3. Companies Are More Established

Leading up to the internet bubble, the number of technology IPOs increased substantially.

YearNumber of Technology IPOsMedian Age
19971748
19981137
19993704
20002615
2001249
2002209

Many of these companies were relatively new and, at the peak of the bubble in 2000, only 14% of them were profitable.

In recent years, there have been far fewer tech IPOs as companies wait for more positive market conditions. And those that have gone public, the median age is much higher.

YearNumber of Technology IPOsMedian Age
20204812
202112612
2022615

Ultimately, many of the companies benefitting from AI are established companies that are already publicly traded. New, unproven companies are much less common in public markets.

Navigating Modern Tech Amid Dot-Com Bubble Worries

Valuations, equity flows, and the shortage of tech IPOs all suggest that AI isn’t shaping up to be the next dot-com bubble.

However, risk is still present in the market. For instance, only 33% of tech companies that went public in 2022 were profitable. Investors can help manage their risk by keeping a diversified portfolio rather than choosing individual stocks.

Visual Capitalist Logo

Explore more insights from New York Life Investments.

Click for Comments

You may also like

Subscribe

Continue Reading

Subscribe

Popular