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Visualizing the Composition of the World Economy by GDP (PPP)

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The Composition of the World Economy by GDP (PPP)

The Composition of the World Economy by GDP (PPP)

Earlier this month, we showed you the world’s $86 trillion economy broken down by country, using nominal GDP calculations.

While this is one useful way to view the global economic picture, it’s not the only way.

Today’s visualization, which comes to us from HowMuch.net, is similar in that it also uses a Voronoi diagram to display the composition of the world economy by GDP. However, by adjusting data for purchasing power parity (PPP), it produces a very different view of how global productivity breaks down.

What is PPP?

Purchasing power parity, or PPP, is an economic theory that can be applied to adjust the prices of goods in a given market.

In essence, instead of using current market rates for prices (such as in nominal data), PPP tries to more accurately account for differences in the cost of living between countries – especially in places where labor and goods are far cheaper.

When applied to GDP measurements, PPP can help provide a more accurate picture of actual productivity. For example, a taxi ride in Bolivia may be far cheaper than one in New York City, even though it is the same service provided over the same distance.

Applying PPP to GDP figures can help correct for these types of differences.

Ranked: Economies by GDP (PPP)

After adjusting for PPP, how does the composition of the global economy change from the nominal numbers?

Below are the 15 largest economies by GDP (PPP), as well as how their ranking changed from the previous chart, which used nominal data.

RankCountryGDP (2018, PPP)Share of World TotalChange (vs. nominal rank)
#1🇨🇳 China$25.4 trillion18.6%+1
#2🇺🇸 United States$20.5 trillion15.0%-1
#3🇮🇳 India$10.5 trillion7.7%+4
#4🇯🇵 Japan$5.5 trillion4.0%-1
#5🇩🇪 Germany$4.5 trillion3.3%-1
#6🇷🇺 Russia$4.0 trillion2.9%+5
#7🇮🇩 Indonesia$3.5 trillion2.6%+9
#8🇧🇷 Brazil$3.4 trillion2.5%+1
#9🇬🇧 United Kingdom$3.1 trillion2.3%-4
#10🇫🇷 France$3.1 trillion2.3%-4
#11🇮🇹 Italy$2.5 trillion1.9%-3
#12🇲🇽 Mexico$2.5 trillion1.9%+3
#13🇹🇷 Turkey$2.4 trillion1.7%+6
#14🇰🇷 Korea, Rep.$2.1 trillion1.5%-2
#15🇪🇸 Spain$1.9 trillion1.4%-1

Using GDP (PPP), the world economy is worth $136.5 trillion in current international U.S. dollars.

What changed the most from the nominal ranking?

With PPP, you can see Indonesia ($3.5 trillion) jumps up the ranking by nine spots to become the #7 ranked economy. Likewise, Turkey ($2.4 trillion) and India ($10.5 trillion) both climb the ranking by six and four spots respectively. China also switches with the U.S., to become the world’s largest economy.

On the flipside, it is often the more developed economies with strong currencies that see a drop in their rankings. After adjusting for PPP, the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, South Korea, Spain, and the U.K. all slip from their previous positions.

For more on GDP (PPP), see the projections for the world’s largest 10 economies in 2030 that we published earlier this year.

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Visualizing Portfolio Return Expectations, by Country

This graphic shows the gap in portfolio return expectations between investors and advisors around the world, revealing a range of market outlooks.

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Visualizing Portfolio Return Expectations, by Country

Visualizing Portfolio Return Expectations, by Country

This was originally posted on Advisor Channel. Sign up to the free mailing list to get beautiful visualizations on financial markets that help advisors and their clients.

How do investors’ return expectations differ from those of advisors? How does this expectation gap shift across countries?

Despite 2022 being the worst year for stock markets in over a decade, investors around the world appear confident about the long-term performance of their portfolios. These convictions point towards resilience across global economies, driven by strong labor markets and moderating inflation.

While advisors are optimistic, their expectations are more conservative overall.

This graphic shows the return expectation gap by country between investors and financial professionals in 2023, based on data from Natixis.

Expectation Gap by Country

Below, we show the return expectation gap by country, based on a survey of 8,550 investors and 2,700 financial professionals:

Long-Term Annual
Return Expectations
InvestorsFinancial
Professionals
Expectations Gap
🇺🇸 U.S.15.6%7.0%2.2X
🇨🇱 Chile15.1%14.5%1.0X
🇲🇽 Mexico14.7%14.0%1.1X
🇸🇬 Singapore14.5%14.2%1.0X
🇯🇵 Japan13.6%8.7%1.6X
🇦🇺 Australia12.5%6.9%1.8X
🇭🇰 Hong Kong SAR12.4%7.6%1.6X
🇨🇦 Canada10.6%6.5%1.6X
🇪🇸 Spain10.6%7.6%1.4X
🇩🇪 Germany10.1%7.0%1.4X
🇮🇹 Italy9.6%6.3%1.5X
🇨🇭 Switzerland9.6%6.9%1.4X
🇫🇷 France8.9%6.6%1.3X
🇬🇧 UK8.1%6.2%1.3X
🌐 Global12.8%9.0%1.4X

Investors in the U.S. have the highest long-term annual return expectations, at 15.6%. The U.S. also has the highest expectations gap across countries, with investors’ expectations more than double that of advisors.

Likely influencing investor convictions are the outsized returns seen in the last decade, led by big tech. This year is no exception, as a handful of tech giants are seeing soaring returns, lifting the overall market.

From a broader perspective, the S&P 500 has returned 11.5% on average annually since 1928.

Following next in line were investors in Chile and Mexico with return expectations of 15.1% and 14.7%, respectively. Unlike many global markets, the MSCI Chile Index posted double-digit returns in 2022.

Global financial hub, Singapore, has the lowest expectations gap across countries.

Investors in the UK and Europe, have the most moderate return expectations overall. Confidence has been weighed down by geopolitical tensions, high interest rates, and dismal economic data.

Return Expectations Across Asset Classes

What are the expected returns for different asset classes over the next decade?

A separate report by Vanguard used a quantitative model to forecast returns through to 2033. For U.S. equities, it projects 4.1-6.1% in annualized returns. Global equities are forecast to have 6.4-8.4% returns, outperforming U.S. stocks over the next decade.

Bonds, meanwhile, are forecast to see 3.6-4.6% annualized returns for the U.S. aggregate market, while U.S. Treasuries are projected to average 3.3-4.3% annually.

While it’s impossible to predict the future, we can see a clear expectation gap not only between countries, but between advisors, clients, and other models. Factors such as inflation, interest rates, and the ability for countries to weather economic headwinds will likely have a significant influence on future portfolio returns.

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