Central Banks

Visualizing the Longest Bull Markets of the Modern Era

Published

5 years ago

June 14, 2018

Jeff Desjardins

Visualizing the Longest Bull Markets of the Modern Era

The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.

During the longest bull market in modern history, the S&P 500 surged a whopping 418% over the 9.5 years between November 1990 and March 2000.

This was during the famous economic expansion that took place during the Clinton era, in which job growth was robust, oil prices fell, stocks soared, and making money was as easy as throwing it in the stock market.

In mere months, this famed bull market may lose its title as the “longest” in the modern era.

That’s because, according to data and analysis from LDL Research, the current bull market will take over the claim to fame in late August 2018.

Ranking the Bulls

In today’s chart, we show every bull market since WWII, including the top six which are covered in more detail:

Rank	Bull Market	Dates	Months	S&P 500 Return	Annualized Return
1	Great Expansion	'90-'00	114	418%	19.0%
2	Post-Crisis Bull Run	'09-'18*	112*	302%	16.7%
3	Post-War Boom	'49-'56	86	267%	20.0%
4	That '70s Growth	'74-'80	74	126%	14.1%
5	Reagan Era	'82-'87	60	229%	26.7%
6	The Hot Aughts	'02-'07	60	101%	15.0%

*Still in progress.

By looking at duration, total rate of return, and annualized rate of return, it really gives a sense of how these bull markets compare.

The current run, which will soon become the longest, didn’t have the same level of intensity as other high-ranking bull markets. Critics would say that it was artificially propped up by ultra-low rates, QE, and other government actions that will make the market ultimately less robust heading forward.

Regardless, the current run ranks in fourth place among the markets above in terms of annualized return.

What Ended Each Bull?

The market psychology behind bull and bear markets can be fascinating.

Below we look at the events credited with “ending” each bull market – though of course, it is actually the actions of investors (buying or selling) that ultimately dictates market direction.

1. The Great Expansion
The bull run lasted 9.5 years, ultimately capitulating when the Dotcom Bubble burst. From the span of June 1999 and May 2000, the Fed raised interest rates six times to try and get a “soft landing”. Market uncertainty was worsened by the 9/11 attacks that occurred the year after.

2. The Post-Crisis Bull Run
Still ongoing…

3. The Post-War Boom
This boom occurred after WWII, and it ended in 1956. Some of the sources we looked at credited the launch of Sputnik, Eisenhower’s heart attack, and the Hungarian Revolution as possible sources of market fear.

4. That ’70s Growth
The Iranian Revolution, the 1979 Energy Crisis, and the return of double-digit inflation were the factors blamed for the end of this bull.

5. Reagan Era
This bull market had the highest annualized return at 26.7%, but the party came to an end on Black Monday in 1987 – one of the most infamous market crashes ever. Some of the causes cited for the crash: program trading, overvaluation, illiquidity and market psychology.

6. The Hot Aughts
Stocks did decently well during the era of cheap credit and rising housing prices. However, the Financial Crisis put an end to this growth, and would cut the DJIA from 14,000 points to below 6,600 points.

Related Topics:stocks markets bull markets longest bull markets investing s&p 500

Up Next

10 Banknotes From Around the World, and Their Security Features

Don't Miss

Infographic: What is a Mutual Fund?

Click for Comments

Economy

Charted: Public Trust in the Federal Reserve

Public trust in the Federal Reserve chair has hit its lowest point in 20 years. Get the details in this infographic.

Published

4 months ago

May 23, 2023

Marcus Lu

The Briefing

Gallup conducts an annual poll to gauge the U.S. public’s trust in the Federal Reserve
After rising during the COVID-19 pandemic, public trust has fallen to a 20-year low

Charted: Public Trust in the Federal Reserve

Each year, Gallup conducts a survey of American adults on various economic topics, including the country’s central bank, the Federal Reserve.

More specifically, respondents are asked how much confidence they have in the current Fed chairman to do or recommend the right thing for the U.S. economy. We’ve visualized these results from 2001 to 2023 to see how confidence levels have changed over time.

Methodology and Results

The data used in this infographic is also listed in the table below. Percentages reflect the share of respondents that have either a “great deal” or “fair amount” of confidence.

Year	Fed chair	% Great deal or Fair amount
2023	Jerome Powell	36%
2022	Jerome Powell	43%
2021	Jerome Powell	55%
2020	Jerome Powell	58%
2019	Jerome Powell	50%
2018	Jerome Powell	45%
2017	Janet Yellen	45%
2016	Janet Yellen	38%
2015	Janet Yellen	42%
2014	Janet Yellen	37%
2013	Ben Bernanke	42%
2012	Ben Bernanke	39%
2011	Ben Bernanke	41%
2010	Ben Bernanke	44%
2009	Ben Bernanke	49%
2008	Ben Bernanke	47%
2007	Ben Bernanke	50%
2006	Ben Bernanke	41%
2005	Alan Greenspan	56%
2004	Alan Greenspan	61%
2003	Alan Greenspan	65%
2002	Alan Greenspan	69%
2001	Alan Greenspan	74%

Data for 2023 collected April 3-25, with this statement put to respondents: “Please tell me how much confidence you have [in the Fed chair] to recommend the right thing for the economy.”

We can see that trust in the Federal Reserve has fluctuated significantly in recent years.

For example, under Alan Greenspan, trust was initially high due to the relative stability of the economy. The burst of the dotcom bubble—which some attribute to Greenspan’s easy credit policies—resulted in a sharp decline.

On the flip side, public confidence spiked during the COVID-19 pandemic. This was likely due to Jerome Powell’s decisive actions to provide support to the U.S. economy throughout the crisis.

Measures implemented by the Fed include bringing interest rates to near zero, quantitative easing (buying government bonds with newly-printed money), and emergency lending programs to businesses.

Confidence Now on the Decline

After peaking at 58%, those with a “great deal” or “fair amount” of trust in the Fed chair have tumbled to 36%, the lowest number in 20 years.

This is likely due to Powell’s hard stance on fighting post-pandemic inflation, which has involved raising interest rates at an incredible speed. While these rate hikes may be necessary, they also have many adverse effects:

Negative impact on the stock market
Increases the burden for those with variable-rate debts
Makes mortgages and home buying less affordable

Higher rates have also prompted many U.S. tech companies to shrink their workforces, and have been a factor in the regional banking crisis, including the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

Where does this data come from?

Source: Gallup (2023)

Data Notes: Results are based on telephone interviews conducted April 3-25, 2023, with a random sample of –1,013—adults, ages 18+, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on this sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. See source for details.