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Visualizing How COVID-19 Has Impacted Global Wages

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Visualizing How COVID-19 Impacted Global Wages

In the years leading up to the pandemic, annual global wage growth was fluctuating stably between 1.6%–2.2%. Now, income, working hours, and employment have all been impacted by COVID-19—but for those who have held onto their jobs, how have wages been affected?

This interactive chart from the International Labour Organization (ILO) reveals how the global pandemic has affected both nominal and real wages, as well as unemployment rates.

The date of data collection varies on a country-by-country basis, using the most recent available data. The most recent measurement of wage indices is from September 2020 in some countries and the least recent available data comes from Q2’2020. In select countries the date of unemployment rates and wage indices are different. As a point of reference, the average wage index in 2019 was 100.

Note: the ILO uses national statistics databases and only the select countries had enough recent, available data for all three elements: nominal wages, real wages, and unemployment.

Where Average Wages are Falling

Average wages in many countries either plateaued or decreased significantly during the global pandemic. Sharp declines happened across a number of European countries, as well as in South Africa and Japan, for example.

CountryUnemployment RateReal Wage IndexNominal Wage Index
🇻🇳 Vietnam (as of Q2'2020)2.7%92.494.4
🇪🇸 Spain (as of Q2'2020)15.3%92.592.3
🇲🇽 Mexico (as of August 2020)5%94.498
🇿🇦 South Africa (as of Q2'2020)23.3%95.297.4
🇰🇷 South Korea (as of August 2020)3.1%96.296.8
🇷🇺 Russia (as of August 2020)6.4%96.9100.5
🇨🇿 Czech Republic (as of Q2'2020)6.6%97.899.6
🇸🇰 Slovakia (as of Q2'2020)6.6%97.899.6
🇯🇵 Japan (as of August 2020)3%98.698.7
🇫🇮 Finland (as of August 2020)7.9%99.6100.1
🇩🇪 Germany (as of Q2'2020)4.4%99.6100.5
ℹ️ Nominal wages are the actual wages/money that a worker receives. Real wages represent the relative purchasing power of nominal wages.

Falling wages, however, do not necessarily mean that people are receiving less money, as many subsidies have been put in place to help cushion income or job loss.

In many cases where wage indices declined, employment did not. This is because different job retention schemes were put in place, wherein workers were furloughed, but were given a portion of their wages from the national government. This allowed unemployment rates to remain steady while wages tapered off.

In Europe, where wages have dropped considerably in many countries, wage subsidies have compensated for nearly 40% of wage bill loss in select countries. But while high income countries can afford to inject stimulus into their economies, most lower income countries cannot. This has come to be described as the fiscal stimulus gap.

Where Average Wages are Rising

While perhaps counterintuitive, rising average wages are in no way an inherent sign of a recovering economy or labor market. Regardless, when compared to 2019, wages have actually increased in the majority of countries, such as Brazil, Canada, United States, Italy, and the UK.

CountryUnemployment RateReal Wage IndexNominal Wage Index
🇨🇦 Canada (as of August 2020)10.6%107.6108.4
🇲🇰 North Macedonia (Unemployment: Jun '20; wage data: Aug '20) 16.7%107.6109.7
🇧🇷 Brazil (as of Q2'2020)13.3%107.3109.6
🇧🇬 Bulgaria (as of June 2020)5.9%106.9107.8
🇭🇺 Hungary (as of August 2020)4.4%106.3106.5
🇮🇹 Italy (as of Q2'2020)8.3%106.2106.2
🇫🇷 France (as of Q2'2020)7.1%105.4105.9
🇷🇸 Serbia (Unemployment: Jun '20; wage data: Aug '20)7.7%104.7106.7
🇳🇴 Norway (as of Q2'2020)4.6%104.5105.6
🇺🇸 U.S. (as of September 2020)7.9%104.3106.2
🇵🇹 Portugal (as of June 2020)7.3%103.2104.2
🇹🇭 Thailand (as of Q2'2020)2%103100.6
🇷🇴 Romania (as of August 2020)5.3%102.5105.2
🇳🇱 Netherlands (as of September 2020)4.4%102103.6
🇬🇧 UK (as of September 2020)4.8%101.5102.4
🇩🇰 Denmark (as of Q2'2020)5.3%101.4101.5
🇸🇪 Sweden (as of August 2020)8.8%100.8101.6
🇨🇱 Chile (as of August 2020)12.3%100.6103.4
🇲🇾 Malaysia (as of June 2020)4.7%100.299
ℹ️ Nominal wages are the actual wages/money that a worker receives. Real wages represent the relative purchasing power of nominal wages.

One reason for higher average wages is something called the compositional effect. The compositional effect is what occurs when wages are not actually increasing, but the makeup of employment changes. For example, the loss and subsequent absence of many lower paying jobs from the labor market due to COVID-19 can skew the average wage upwards.

Brazil is a prime example of the compositional effect. As both nominal and real wages increase, so does unemployment. Brazil’s current unemployment rate is 13.3%, while wages have skyrocketed to a real wage index of 107.3 during the first half of 2020.

The loss of these lower paying jobs has been extremely widespread, most negatively impacting informal workers, self-employed vendors, and migrant workers. Some policymakers have seen this as an opportunity to call for universal basic income. Even with job retention schemes to keep unemployment steady, many people are earning far less income and may never return to normal working hours in their current positions.

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Beyond Big Names: The Case for Small- and Mid-Cap Stocks

Small- and mid-cap stocks have historically outperformed large caps. What are the opportunities and risks to consider?

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A line chart showing the historical return performance of small-, mid-, and large-cap stocks.

 

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The following content is sponsored by New York Life Investments
An infographic comparing low-, mid-, and large-cap stocks, including an area graph showing historical returns, a bubble chart showing how much $100 would be worth over 35 years, a horizontal bar graph showing annualized volatility, and a line graph showing relative forward price-to-earnings ratios, that together show that mid-cap stocks present a compelling investment opportunity.

Beyond Big Names: The Case for Small- and Mid-Cap Stocks

Over the last 35 years, small- and mid-cap stocks have outperformed large caps, making them an attractive choice for investors.

According to data from Yahoo Finance, from February 1989 to February 2024, large-cap stocks returned +1,664% versus +2,062% for small caps and +3,176% for mid caps.  

This graphic, sponsored by New York Life Investments, explores their return potential along with the risks to consider.

Higher Historical Returns

If you made a $100 investment in baskets of small-, mid-, and large-cap stocks in February 1989, what would each grouping be worth today?

Small CapsMid CapsLarge Caps
Starting value (February 1989)$100$100$100
Ending value (February 2024)$2,162$3,276$1,764

Source: Yahoo Finance (2024). Small caps, mid caps, and large caps are represented by the S&P 600, S&P 400, and S&P 500 respectively.

Mid caps delivered the strongest performance since 1989, generating 86% more than large caps.

This superior historical track record is likely the result of the unique position mid-cap companies find themselves in. Mid-cap firms have generally successfully navigated early stage growth and are typically well-funded relative to small caps. And yet they are more dynamic and nimble than large-cap companies, allowing them to respond quicker to the market cycle.

Small caps also outperformed over this timeframe. They earned 23% more than large caps. 

Higher Volatility

However, higher historical returns of small- and mid-cap stocks came with increased risk. They both endured greater volatility than large caps. 

Small CapsMid CapsLarge Caps
Total Volatility18.9%17.4%14.8%

Source: Yahoo Finance (2024). Small caps, mid caps, and large caps are represented by the S&P 600, S&P 400, and S&P 500 respectively.

Small-cap companies are typically earlier in their life cycle and tend to have thinner financial cushions to withstand periods of loss relative to large caps. As a result, they are usually the most volatile group followed by mid caps. Large-cap companies, as more mature and established players, exhibit the most stability in their stock prices.

Investing in small caps and mid caps requires a higher risk tolerance to withstand their price swings. For investors with longer time horizons who are capable of enduring higher risk, current market pricing strengthens the case for stocks of smaller companies.

Attractive Valuations

Large-cap stocks have historically high valuations, with their forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) trading above their 10-year average, according to analysis conducted by FactSet.

Conversely, the forward P/E ratios of small- and mid-cap stocks seem to be presenting a compelling entry point. 

Small Caps/Large CapsMid Caps/Large Caps
Relative Forward P/E Ratios0.710.75
Discount29%25%

Source: Yardeni Research (2024). Small caps, mid caps, and large caps are represented by the S&P 600, S&P 400, and S&P 500 respectively.

Looking at both groups’ relative forward P/E ratios (small-cap P/E ratio divided by large-cap P/E ratio, and mid-cap P/E ratio divided by large-cap P/E ratio), small and mid caps are trading at their steepest discounts versus large caps since the early 2000s.

Discovering Small- and Mid-Cap Stocks

Growth-oriented investors looking to add equity exposure could consider incorporating small and mid caps into their portfolios.

With superior historical returns and relatively attractive valuations, small- and mid-cap stocks present a compelling opportunity for investors capable of tolerating greater volatility.

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