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Visualizing Corruption Around the World

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Visualizing Corruption Around the World

Visualizing Corruption Around the World

Growing levels of public sector corruption can stifle a country’s economic growth while also chipping away at political freedom.

Which parts of the world are perceived to be most corrupt – and further, how does this data differ between regions, and how has it trended over time?

The Corruption Perception Index (CPI)

Today’s chart pulls its numbers from the recent 2018 Corruption Perceptions Index report, which has been published by Transparency International annually since 1995. The report scores 180 countries, and is considered the world’s most widely-used barometer for corruption.

However, before we dive in to the data, it’s worth taking a quick look at the methodology behind the report:

Methodology:

  • The CPI attempts to measure perceptions about corruption in a country, rather than corruption itself
  • Specifically, it is focused on the public sector of countries, which includes governments and government-run institutions
  • The CPI is a composite index, using the results from 13 separate reports and surveys to calculate an overall score
  • Scores range from 0 (most corrupt) to 100 (most clean)

Finally, it’s also worth noting that in the chart, we’ve added in government types as rated by the Economist Intelligence Unit – they range from “Full Democracy” to “Autocratic Regime”.

The Most and Least Corrupt Places

What do experts and businesspeople see as the most and least corrupt global regions?

RegionAverage Score (CPI)
Western Europe & EU66
Americas44
Asia Pacific44
Middle East & North Africa39
Eastern Europe & Central Asia35
Sub-Saharan Africa32
Global43

Western Europe has the highest score on average, while Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest (most corrupt) average score. The Americas ranks just above the global average score of 43, mainly because the average is skewed by the lower scores of many countries in Latin America (such as Venezuela) and the Caribbean (such as Haiti).

Now, let’s look at the top 10 countries overall:

RankCountryScore (CPI)Government typeRegion
#1Denmark88Full democracyWestern Europe & EU
#2New Zealand87Full democracyAsia Pacific
#3Finland85Full democracyWestern Europe & EU
#3Singapore85Flawed democracyAsia Pacific
#3Sweden85Full democracyWestern Europe & EU
#3Switzerland85Full democracyWestern Europe & EU
#7Norway84Full democracyWestern Europe & EU
#8Netherlands82Full democracyWestern Europe & EU
#9Canada81Full democracyAmericas
#9Luxembourg81Full democracyWestern Europe & EU

Here’s also a look at the world’s 20 most populous countries:

Most Populous Countries

As the report notes, the relation between democracy and corruption appears to be quite clear: the more democratic a regime is, the less corrupt it is perceived to be. Using the Economist Intelligence Unit rankings, there are no “Hybrid” or “Autocratic” regimes that come anywhere near the top 10.

The closest may be the U.A.E. – which is classified as an Autocratic Regime – which has a CPI score of 70, good for 23rd place globally.

Trends Over Time

Over the last seven years, the report notes that there were a few specific countries that have consistently trended in one direction or another.

Hungary: The country has seen a -9 point change to its CPI score since 2012, dropping to 46 points in total. That’s just a notch above the global average.

Turkey: Turkey’s rating has deteriorated from 49 to 41 over the 2012-2018 time period.

Argentina: The South American nation has seen its score rise by eight points over the 2012-2018 time period.

Guyana: Guyana has gained nine points – a significant improvement over its original score of 28 at the start of that time period.

What will be the next country to jump up (or down) the list – and what factors will lead to this change in perception?

Note: The color-coding on the map has been updated to better reflect CPI scores. Ukraine was incorrectly classified as an Autocratic Regime.

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Markets

Beyond Big Names: The Case for Small- and Mid-Cap Stocks

Small- and mid-cap stocks have historically outperformed large caps. What are the opportunities and risks to consider?

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A line chart showing the historical return performance of small-, mid-, and large-cap stocks.

 

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The following content is sponsored by New York Life Investments
An infographic comparing low-, mid-, and large-cap stocks, including an area graph showing historical returns, a bubble chart showing how much $100 would be worth over 35 years, a horizontal bar graph showing annualized volatility, and a line graph showing relative forward price-to-earnings ratios, that together show that mid-cap stocks present a compelling investment opportunity.

Beyond Big Names: The Case for Small- and Mid-Cap Stocks

Over the last 35 years, small- and mid-cap stocks have outperformed large caps, making them an attractive choice for investors.

According to data from Yahoo Finance, from February 1989 to February 2024, large-cap stocks returned +1,664% versus +2,062% for small caps and +3,176% for mid caps.  

This graphic, sponsored by New York Life Investments, explores their return potential along with the risks to consider.

Higher Historical Returns

If you made a $100 investment in baskets of small-, mid-, and large-cap stocks in February 1989, what would each grouping be worth today?

Small CapsMid CapsLarge Caps
Starting value (February 1989)$100$100$100
Ending value (February 2024)$2,162$3,276$1,764

Source: Yahoo Finance (2024). Small caps, mid caps, and large caps are represented by the S&P 600, S&P 400, and S&P 500 respectively.

Mid caps delivered the strongest performance since 1989, generating 86% more than large caps.

This superior historical track record is likely the result of the unique position mid-cap companies find themselves in. Mid-cap firms have generally successfully navigated early stage growth and are typically well-funded relative to small caps. And yet they are more dynamic and nimble than large-cap companies, allowing them to respond quicker to the market cycle.

Small caps also outperformed over this timeframe. They earned 23% more than large caps. 

Higher Volatility

However, higher historical returns of small- and mid-cap stocks came with increased risk. They both endured greater volatility than large caps. 

Small CapsMid CapsLarge Caps
Total Volatility18.9%17.4%14.8%

Source: Yahoo Finance (2024). Small caps, mid caps, and large caps are represented by the S&P 600, S&P 400, and S&P 500 respectively.

Small-cap companies are typically earlier in their life cycle and tend to have thinner financial cushions to withstand periods of loss relative to large caps. As a result, they are usually the most volatile group followed by mid caps. Large-cap companies, as more mature and established players, exhibit the most stability in their stock prices.

Investing in small caps and mid caps requires a higher risk tolerance to withstand their price swings. For investors with longer time horizons who are capable of enduring higher risk, current market pricing strengthens the case for stocks of smaller companies.

Attractive Valuations

Large-cap stocks have historically high valuations, with their forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) trading above their 10-year average, according to analysis conducted by FactSet.

Conversely, the forward P/E ratios of small- and mid-cap stocks seem to be presenting a compelling entry point. 

Small Caps/Large CapsMid Caps/Large Caps
Relative Forward P/E Ratios0.710.75
Discount29%25%

Source: Yardeni Research (2024). Small caps, mid caps, and large caps are represented by the S&P 600, S&P 400, and S&P 500 respectively.

Looking at both groups’ relative forward P/E ratios (small-cap P/E ratio divided by large-cap P/E ratio, and mid-cap P/E ratio divided by large-cap P/E ratio), small and mid caps are trading at their steepest discounts versus large caps since the early 2000s.

Discovering Small- and Mid-Cap Stocks

Growth-oriented investors looking to add equity exposure could consider incorporating small and mid caps into their portfolios.

With superior historical returns and relatively attractive valuations, small- and mid-cap stocks present a compelling opportunity for investors capable of tolerating greater volatility.

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