Mining

Visualizing the Supply Deficit of Battery Minerals (2024-2034P)

Published

4 weeks ago

December 20, 2024

Bruno Venditti

Graphics/Design:

Miranda Smith

See this visualization first on the Voronoi app.

Visualizing the Supply Deficit of Battery Minerals

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

The world currently produces a surplus of key battery minerals, but this is projected to shift to a significant deficit over the coming decade.

This graphic illustrates this change, driven primarily by growing battery demand. The data comes exclusively from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, as of November 2024.

Minerals in a Lithium-Ion Battery

Minerals make up the bulk of materials used to produce parts within the cell, ensuring the flow of electrical current:

Lithium: Acts as the primary charge carrier, enabling energy storage and transfer within the battery.
Cobalt: Stabilizes the cathode structure, improving battery lifespan and performance.
Nickel: Boosts energy density, allowing batteries to store more energy.
Manganese: Enhances thermal stability and safety, reducing overheating risks.

The cells in an average battery with a 60 kilowatt-hour (kWh) capacity—the same size used in a Chevy Bolt—contain roughly 185 kilograms of minerals.

Battery Demand Forecast

Due to the growing demand for these materials, their production and mining have increased exponentially in recent years, led by China. In this scenario, all the metals shown in the graphic currently experience a surplus.

In the long term, however, with the greater adoption of batteries and other renewable energy technologies, projections indicate that all these minerals will enter a deficit.

For example, lithium demand is expected to more than triple by 2034, resulting in a projected deficit of 572,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). According to Benchmark analysis, the lithium industry would need over $40 billion in investment to meet demand by 2030.

Metric	Lithium (in tonnes LCE)	Nickel (in tonnes)	Cobalt (in tonnes)	Manganese (in tonnes)
2024 Demand	1,103,000	3,440,000	230,000	119,000
2024 Surplus	88,000	117,000	24,000	11,000
2034 Demand	3,758,000	6,082,000	468,000	650,000
2034 Deficit	-572,000	-839,000	-91,000	-307,000

Nickel demand, on the other hand, is expected to almost double, leading to a deficit of 839,000 tonnes by 2034. The surge in demand is attributed primarily to the rise of mid- and high-performance electric vehicles (EVs) in Western markets.