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Venture Capital Mega-Deals on Pace to Set New Record in 2019

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Venture Capital Financing Infographic

The Rise of Mega-Deals in Venture Capital Financing

Venture capital “mega-deals”—which rake in $100 million or more—have taken off at breakneck speed. A total of 185 were signed by the end of September, setting the pace for a record number of mega-deals in 2019.

Interestingly, mega-deal counts aren’t the only thing ballooning in venture capital financing. Almost everything has gotten bigger: venture capital funds, deal sizes, and exit valuations.

Today’s infographic comes from Pitchbook’s quarterly Venture Monitor, and visualizes the trends shaping the U.S. venture capital landscape.

Fundraising

Venture capital fundraising remains robust, with $29.6 billion raised across 162 funds year-to-date. Not only that, a higher proportion of funds are quite large. Roughly 9% were sized $500 million or more, with 15 such mega-funds closed year-to-date.

What does it mean to “close” a fund? Before they can begin operations, a venture capital fund manager will raise money from investors. The fund closes to signify the end of a fundraising round and can go through multiple closings until it reaches its targeted fundraising amount.

Venture capital fundraising

In the coming years, fundraising will likely remain strong. Venture capital net cash flows have been positive since 2012, which means capital is being returned to the limited partners of a fund faster than they can reinvest it into new vehicles.

With this excess cash, investors will likely contribute to the next round of venture capital funds—continuing the virtuous cycle.

Dealmaking

Total deal value is set to surpass $100 billion for a second consecutive year, partly driven by the rise of mega-deals. At every stage of startup financing, average deal sizes remain elevated.

Venture capital deal sizes

While the focus has shifted to the massive amount of capital available at later stages, angel and seed-stage deals are still quite healthy, with an average deal size of over $2 million.

At late financing stages, the 2019 average deal size is nearly $35 million, second only to 2018’s record of $44 million. Companies continue to raise large sums of capital prior to going public, with 140 late-stage mega-deals completed in 2019.

Exits

Total exit value reached $200 billion for the first time in a decade. Interestingly, initial public offerings (IPOs) comprised a whopping 82% of overall exit value.

Multi-billion dollar IPOs continue to dominate headlines, with six such public debuts occurring in the third quarter.

CompanyIndustryPre-Money Valuation at IPOAmount Raised at IPO
DatadogNetwork Management Software$7.2B$648M
Peloton InteractiveRecreational Goods$6.9B$1.2B
CloudflareNetwork Management Software$3.9B$525M
10X GenomicsBiotechnology$3.3B$390M
MedalliaBusiness/Productivity Software$2.3B$326M
LivongoHealthcare Technology$2.2B$355M
Source: Pitchbook financial database

Notably missing from the list is WeWork. The company failed to go public due to profitability concerns, and anchor investor Softbank recently provided $9.5 billion in bailout financing in an attempt to rescue the company.

Sky High Valuations

As venture capital reaches new heights, analysts will be paying closer attention to each startup’s profitability potential.

“… new companies are shifting their focus to measured growth in an effort to prioritize long-term success and a more sustainable, scalable business model.”

Alex Song, CEO and Co-Founder of Innovation Department

With 2019 coming to a close, will fourth quarter venture capital activity be able to maintain its present momentum?

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Markets

How Disinflation Could Affect Company Financing

History signals that after a period of slowing inflation—also known as disinflation—debt and equity issuance expands.

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Chart showing U.S. Equity Issuance Deal Value from 1980-2000. Equity Issuance goes up over time, with the 300% increase in 1983 highlighted at the end of the disinflation period.
The following content is sponsored by Citizens Commercial Banking

How Disinflation Could Affect Company Financing

The macroeconomic environment is shifting. Since the second half of 2022, the pace of U.S. inflation has been dropping.

We explore how this disinflation may affect company financing in Part 2 of our Understanding Market Trends series from Citizens.

Disinflation vs. Deflation

The last time inflation climbed above 9% and then dropped was in the early 1980’s.

Time PeriodMarch 1980-July 1983June 2022-April 2023*
Inflation at Start of Cycle14.8%9.1%
Inflation at End of Cycle2.5%4.9%

* The June 2022-April 2023 cycle is ongoing. Source: Federal Reserve. Inflation is based on the Consumer Price Index.

A decrease in the rate of inflation is known as disinflation. It differs from deflation, which is a negative inflation rate like the U.S. experienced at the end of the Global Financial Crisis in 2009.

How might slowing inflation affect the amount of debt and equity available to companies?

Looking to History

There are many factors that influence capital markets, such as technological advances, monetary policy, and regulatory changes.

With this caveat in mind, history signals that both debt and equity issuance expand after a period of disinflation.

Equity Issuance

Companies issued low levels of stock during the ‘80s disinflation period, but issuance later rose nearly 300% in 1983.

YearDeal Value
1980$2.6B
1981$5.0B
1982$3.6B
1983$13.5B
1984$2.5B
1985$12.0B
1986$24.2B
1987$24.9B
1988$16.9B
1989$12.9B
1990$13.4B
1991$45.2B
1992$50.3B
1993$95.3B
1994$63.7B
1995$79.7B
1996$108.7B
1997$106.5B
1998$97.0B
1999$142.8B
2000$156.5B

Source: Bloomberg. U.S. public equity issuance dollar volume that includes both initial and follow-on offerings and excludes convertibles.

Issuance grew quickly in the years that followed. Other factors also influenced issuance, such as the macroeconomic expansion, productivity growth, and the dotcom boom of the ‘90s.

Debt Issuance

Similarly, companies issued low debt during the ‘80s disinflation, but levels began to increase substantially in later years.

YearDeal Value Interest Rate
1980$4.5B11.4%
1981$6.7B13.9%
1982$14.5B13.0%
1983$8.1B11.1%
1984$25.7B12.5%
1985$46.4B10.6%
1986$47.1B7.7%
1987$26.4B8.4%
1988$24.7B8.9%
1989$29.9B8.5%
1990$40.2B8.6%
1991$41.6B7.9%
1992$50.0B7.0%
1993$487.8B5.9%
1994$526.4B7.1%
1995$632.7B6.6%
1996$906.0B6.4%
1997$1.3T6.4%
1998$1.8T5.3%
1999$1.8T5.7%
2000$2.8T6.0%

Source: Dealogic, Federal Reserve. Data reflects U.S. debt issuance dollar volume across several deal types including: Asset Backed Securities, U.S. Agency, Non-U.S. Agency, High Yield, Investment Grade, Government Backed, Mortgage Backed, Medium Term Notes, Covered Bonds, Preferreds, and Supranational. Interest Rate is the 10 Year Treasury Yield.

As interest rates dropped and debt capital markets matured, issuing debt became cheaper and corporations seized this opportunity.

It’s worth noting that debt issuance was also impacted by other factors, like the maturity of the high-yield debt market and growth in non-bank lenders such as hedge funds and pension funds.

Then vs. Now

Could the U.S. see levels of capital financing similar to what happened during the ‘80s disinflation? There are many economic differences between then and now.

Consider how various indicators differed 10 months into each disinflationary period.

January 1981April 2023*
Inflation Rate
Annual
11.8%4.9%
Inflation Expectations
Next 12 Months
9.5%4.5%
Interest Rate
10-Yr Treasury Yield
12.6%3.7%
Unemployment Rate
Seasonally Adjusted
7.5%3.4%
Nominal Wage Growth
Annual, Seasonally Adjusted
9.3%5.0%
After-Tax Corporate Profits
As Share of Gross Value Added
9.1%13.8%

* Data for inflation expectations and interest rate is as of May 2023, data for corporate profits is as of Q4 1980 and Q1 2023. Inflation is a year-over-year inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index. Source: Federal Reserve.

The U.S. economy is in a better position when it comes to factors like inflation, unemployment, and corporate profits. On the other hand, fears of an upcoming recession and turmoil in the banking sector have led to volatility.

What to Consider During Disinflation

Amid uncertainty in financial markets, lenders and investors may be more cautious. Companies will need to be strategic about how they approach capital financing.

  • High-quality, profitable companies could be well positioned for IPOs as investors are placing more focus on cash flow.
  • High-growth companies could face fewer options as lenders become more selective and could consider alternative forms of equity and private debt.
  • Companies with lower credit ratings could find debt more expensive as lenders charge higher rates to account for market volatility.

In uncertain times, it’s critical for businesses to work with the right advisor to find—and take advantage of—financing opportunities.

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