Markets

Charted: U.S. Consumer Debt Approaches $16 Trillion

Published

4 months ago

May 4, 2022

Marcus Lu

U.S. consumer debt approaches $16 trillion

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Charted: U.S. Consumer Debt Approaches $16 Trillion

According to the Federal Reserve (Fed), U.S. consumer debt is approaching a record-breaking $16 trillion. Critically, the rate of increase in consumer debt for the fourth quarter of 2021 was also the highest seen since 2007.

This graphic provides context into the consumer debt situation using data from the end of 2021.

Housing Vs. Non-Housing Debt

The following table includes the data used in the above graphic. Housing debt covers mortgages, while non-housing debt covers auto loans, student loans, and credit card balances.

Date	Housing Debt (USD trillions)	Non-Housing Debt (USD trillions)	Total Consumer Debt (USD trillions)
Q1 2003	5.18	2.05	7.23
Q2 2003	5.34	2.04	7.38
Q3 2003	5.45	2.10	7.55
Q4 2003	5.96	2.10	8.06
Q1 2004	6.17	2.13	8.30
Q2 2004	6.34	2.12	8.46
Q3 2004	6.64	2.20	8.84
Q4 2004	6.83	2.22	9.05
Q1 2005	7.01	2.19	9.20
Q2 2005	7.23	2.26	9.49
Q3 2005	7.45	2.35	9.80
Q4 2005	7.67	2.34	10.01
Q1 2006	8.02	2.36	10.38
Q2 2006	8.35	2.40	10.75
Q3 2006	8.65	2.46	11.11
Q4 2006	8.83	2.48	11.31
Q1 2007	9.03	2.46	11.49
Q2 2007	9.33	2.53	11.86
Q3 2007	9.56	2.58	12.14
Q4 2007	9.75	2.63	12.38
Q1 2008	9.89	2.65	12.54
Q2 2008	9.95	2.65	12.60
Q3 2008	9.98	2.69	12.67
Q4 2008	9.97	2.71	12.68
Q1 2009	9.85	2.68	12.53
Q2 2009	9.77	2.63	12.40
Q3 2009	9.65	2.62	12.27
Q4 2009	9.55	2.62	12.17
Q1 2010	9.53	2.58	12.11
Q2 2010	9.38	2.55	11.93
Q3 2010	9.28	2.56	11.84
Q4 2010	9.12	2.59	11.71
Q1 2011	9.18	2.58	11.76
Q2 2011	9.14	2.58	11.72
Q3 2011	9.04	2.62	11.66
Q4 2011	8.90	2.63	11.53
Q1 2012	8.80	2.64	11.44
Q2 2012	8.74	2.64	11.38
Q3 2012	8.60	2.71	11.31
Q4 2012	8.59	2.75	11.34
Q1 2013	8.48	2.75	11.23
Q2 2013	8.38	2.77	11.15
Q3 2013	8.44	2.85	11.29
Q4 2013	8.58	2.94	11.52
Q1 2014	8.70	2.96	11.66
Q2 2014	8.62	3.02	11.64
Q3 2014	8.64	3.07	11.71
Q4 2014	8.68	3.16	11.84
Q1 2015	8.68	3.17	11.85
Q2 2015	8.62	3.24	11.86
Q3 2015	8.75	3.31	12.06
Q4 2015	8.74	3.37	12.11
Q1 2016	8.86	3.39	12.25
Q2 2016	8.84	3.45	12.29
Q3 2016	8.82	3.54	12.36
Q4 2016	8.95	3.63	12.58
Q1 2017	9.09	3.64	12.73
Q2 2017	9.14	3.69	12.83
Q3 2017	9.19	3.77	12.96
Q4 2017	9.32	3.82	13.14
Q1 2018	9.38	3.85	13.23
Q2 2018	9.43	3.87	13.30
Q3 2018	9.56	3.95	13.51
Q4 2018	9.53	4.01	13.54
Q1 2019	9.65	4.02	13.67
Q2 2019	9.81	4.06	13.87
Q3 2019	9.84	4.13	13.97
Q4 2019	9.95	4.20	14.15
Q1 2020	10.10	4.21	14.31
Q2 2020	10.15	4.12	14.27
Q3 2020	10.22	4.14	14.36
Q4 2020	10.39	4.17	14.56
Q1 2021	10.50	4.14	14.64
Q2 2021	10.76	4.20	14.96
Q3 2021	10.99	4.24	15.23
Q4 2021	11.25	4.34	15.59

Source: Federal Reserve

Trends in Housing Debt

Home prices have experienced upward pressure since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is evidenced by the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which has increased by 34% since the start of the pandemic.

Driving this growth are various pandemic-related impacts. For example, the cost of materials such as lumber have seen enormous spikes. We’ve covered this story in a previous graphic, which showed how many homes could be built with $50,000 worth of lumber. In most cases, these higher costs are passed on to the consumer.

Another key factor here is mortgage rates, which fell to all-time lows in 2020. When rates are low, consumers are able to borrow in larger quantities. This increases the demand for homes, which in turn inflates prices.

Ultimately, higher home prices translate to more mortgage debt being incurred by families.

No Need to Worry, Though

Economists believe that today’s housing debt isn’t a cause for concern. This is because the quality of borrowers is much stronger than it was between 2003 and 2007, in the years leading up to the financial crisis and subsequent housing crash.

In the chart below, subprime borrowers (those with a credit score of 620 and below) are represented by the red-shaded bars:

Mortgage originations by Credit Score

We can see that subprime borrowers represent very little (2%) of today’s total originations compared to the period between 2003 to 2007 (12%). This suggests that American homeowners are, on average, less likely to default on their mortgage.

Economists have also noted a decline in the household debt service ratio, which measures the percentage of disposable income that goes towards a mortgage. This is shown in the table below, along with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate.

Year	Mortgage Payments as a % of Disposable Income	Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate
2000	12.0%	8.2%
2004	12.2%	5.4%
2008	12.8%	5.8%
2012	9.8%	3.9%
2016	9.9%	3.7%
2020	9.4%	3.5%
2021	9.3%	3.2%

Source: Federal Reserve

While it’s true that Americans are less burdened by their mortgages, we must acknowledge the decrease in mortgage rates that took place over the same period.

With the Fed now increasing rates to calm inflation, Americans could see their mortgages begin to eat up a larger chunk of their paycheck. In fact, mortgage rates have already risen for seven consecutive weeks.

Trends in Non-Housing Consumer Debt

The key stories in non-housing consumer debt are student loans and auto loans.

The former category of debt has grown substantially over the past two decades, with growth tapering off during the pandemic. This can be attributed to COVID relief measures which have temporarily lowered the interest rate on direct federal student loans to 0%.

Additionally, these loans were placed into forbearance, meaning 37 million borrowers have not been required to make payments. As of April 2022, the value of these waived payments has reached $195 billion.

Over the course of the pandemic, very few direct federal borrowers have made voluntary payments to reduce their loan principal. When payments eventually resume, and the 0% interest rate is reverted, economists believe that delinquencies could rise significantly.

Auto loans, on the other hand, are following a similar trajectory as mortgages. Both new and used car prices have risen due to the global chip shortage, which is hampering production across the entire industry.

To put this in numbers, the average price of a new car has climbed from $35,600 in 2019, to over $47,000 today. Over a similar timeframe, the average price of a used car has grown from $19,800, to over $28,000.

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Technology

Thematic Investing: 3 Key Trends in Cybersecurity

Cyberattacks are becoming more frequent and sophisticated. Here’s what investors need to know about the future of cybersecurity.

Written By

Marcus Lu

Graphics & Design

Sam Parker

Published August 11, 2022 • Updated August 11, 2022 •

Thematic Investing: 3 Key Trends in Cybersecurity

In 2020, the global cost of cybercrime was estimated to be around $945 billion, according to McAfee.

It’s likely even higher today, as multiple sources have recorded an increase in the frequency and sophistication of cyberattacks during the pandemic.

In this infographic from Global X ETFs, we highlight three major trends that are shaping the future of the cybersecurity industry that investors need to know.

Trend 1: Increasing Costs

Research from IBM determined that the average data breach cost businesses $4.2 million in 2021, up from $3.6 million in 2017. The following table breaks this figure into four components:

Cost Component	Value ($)
Cost of lost business	$1.6M
Detection and escalation	$1.2M
Post breach response	$1.1M
Notification	$0.3M
Total	$4.2M

The greatest cost of a data breach is lost business, which results from system downtimes, reputational losses, and lost customers. Second is detection and escalation, including investigative activities, audit services, and communications to stakeholders.

Post breach response includes costs such as legal expenditures, issuing new accounts or credit cards (in the case of financial institutions), and other monitoring services. Lastly, notification refers to the cost of notifying regulators, stakeholders, and other third parties.

To stay ahead of these rising costs, businesses are placing more emphasis on cybersecurity. For example, Microsoft announced in September 2021 that it would quadruple its cybersecurity investments to $20 billion over the next five years.

Trend 2: Remote Work Opens New Vulnerabilities

According to IBM, companies that rely more on remote work experience greater losses from data breaches. For companies where 81 to 100% of employees were remote, the average cost of a data breach was $5.5 million (2021). This dropped to $3.7 million for companies that had under 10% of employees working from home.

A major reason for this gap is that work-from-home setups are typically less secure. Phishing attacks surged in 2021, taking advantage of the fact that many employees access corporate systems through their personal devices.

Type of Attack	Number of attacks in 2020	Number of attacks in 2021	Growth (%)
Spam phishing	1.5M	10.1M	+573%
Credential phishing	5.5M	6.2M	+13%

As detected by Trend Micro’s Cloud App Security.

Spam phishing refers to “fake” emails that trick users by impersonating company management. They can include malicious links that download ransomware onto the users device. Credential phishing is similar in concept, though the goal is to steal a person’s account credentials.

A tactic you may have seen before is the Amazon scam, where senders impersonate Amazon and convince users to update their payment methods. This strategy could also be used to gain access to a company’s internal systems.

Trend 3: AI Can Reduce the Cost of a Data Breach

AI-based cybersecurity can detect and respond to cyberattacks without any human intervention. When fully deployed, IBM measured a 20% reduction in the time it takes to identify and contain a breach. It also resulted in cost savings upwards of 60%.

A prominent user of AI-based cybersecurity is Google, which uses machine learning to detect phishing attacks within Gmail.

Machine learning helps Gmail block spam and phishing messages from showing up in your inbox with over 99.9% accuracy. This is huge, given that 50-70% of messages that Gmail receives are spam.
– Andy Wen, Google

As cybercrime escalates, Acumen Research and Consulting believes the market for AI-based security solutions will reach $134 billion by 2030, up from $15 billion in 2021.

Introducing the Global X Cybersecurity ETF

The Global X Cybersecurity ETF (Ticker: BUG) seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Indxx Cybersecurity Index. See below for industry and country-level breakdowns, as of June 2022.

Sector (By security type)	Weight
Cloud	28.0%
Network	25.1%
Identity	17.7%
Internet	15.0%
Endpoint	12.8%

Country	Weight
🇺🇸 U.S.	71.6%
🇮🇱 Israel	13.2%
🇬🇧 UK	8.2%
🇯🇵 Japan	5.5%
🇰🇷 South Korea	0.9%
🇨🇦 Canada	0.6%

Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Investors can use this passively managed solution to gain exposure to the rising adoption of cybersecurity technologies.

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Markets

Visualizing Major Layoffs At U.S. Corporations

This infographic highlights the accelerating pace of layoffs so far in 2022, as businesses cut costs ahead of a potential recession.

Published

1 week ago

August 9, 2022

Marcus Lu

Visualizing Major Layoffs at U.S. Corporations

Hiring freezes and layoffs are becoming more common in 2022, as U.S. businesses look to slash costs ahead of a possible recession.

Understandably, this has a lot of people worried. In June 2022, Insight Global found that 78% of American workers fear they will lose their job in the next recession. Additionally, 56% said they aren’t financially prepared, and 54% said they would take a pay cut to avoid being laid off.

In this infographic, we’ve visualized major layoffs announced in 2022 by publicly-traded U.S. corporations.

Note: Due to gaps in reporting, as well as the very large number of U.S. corporations, this list may not be comprehensive.

An Emerging Trend

Layoffs have surged considerably since April of this year. See the table below for high-profile instances of mass layoffs.

Company	Industry	Layoffs (#)	Month
Peloton	Consumer Discretionary	2,800	February
Funko	Consumer Discretionary	258	April
Robinhood	Financial Services	~400	April
Nektar Therapeutics	Biotechnology	500	April
Carvana	Automotive	2,500	May
Doma	Financial Services	310	May
JP Morgan Chase & Co.	Financial Services	~500	June
Tesla	Automotive	200	June
Coinbase	Financial Services	1,100	June
Netflix	Technology	300	June
CVS Health	Pharmaceutical	208	June
StartTek	Technology	472	June
Ford	Automotive	8,000	July
Rivian	Automotive	840	July
Peloton	Consumer Discretionary	2,000	July
LoanDepot	Financial Services	2,000	July
Invitae	Biotechnology	1,000	July
Lyft	Technology	60	July
Meta	Technology	350	July
Twitter	Technology	<30	July
Vimeo	Technology	72	July
Robinhood	Financial Services	~795	August

Here’s a brief rundown of these layoffs, sorted by industry.

Automotive

Ford has announced the biggest round of layoffs this year, totalling roughly 8,000 salaried employees. Many of these jobs are in Ford’s legacy combustion engine business. According to CEO Jim Farley, these cuts are necessary to fund the company’s transition to EVs.

We absolutely have too many people in some places, no doubt about it.
– Jim Farley, CEO, Ford

Speaking of EVs, Rivian laid off 840 employees in July, amounting to 6% of its total workforce. The EV startup pointed to inflation, rising interest rates, and increasing commodity prices as factors. The firm’s more established competitor, Tesla, cut 200 jobs from its autopilot division in the month prior.

Last but not least is online used car retailer, Carvana, which cut 2,500 jobs in May. The company experienced rapid growth during the pandemic, but has since fallen out of grace. Year-to-date, the company’s shares are down more than 80%.

Financial Services

Fearing an impending recession, Coinbase has shed 1,100 employees, or 18% of its total workforce. Interestingly, Coinbase does not have a physical headquarters, meaning the entire company operates remotely.

A recession could lead to another crypto winter, and could last for an extended period. In past crypto winters, trading revenue declined significantly.
Brian Armstrong, CEO, Coinbase

Around the same time, JPMorgan Chase & Co. announced it would fire hundreds of home-lending employees. While an exact number isn’t available, we’ve estimated this to be around 500 jobs, based on the original Bloomberg article. Wells Fargo, another major U.S. bank, has also cut 197 jobs from its home mortgage division.

The primary reason for these cuts is rising mortgage rates, which are negatively impacting the demand for homes.

Technology

Within tech, Meta and Twitter are two of the most high profile companies to begin making layoffs. In Meta’s case, 350 custodial staff have been let go due to reduced usage of the company’s offices.

Many more cuts are expected, however, as Facebook recently reported its first revenue decline in 10 years. CEO Mark Zuckerberg has made it clear he expects the company to do more with fewer resources, and managers have been encouraged to report “low performers” for “failing the company”.

Realistically, there are probably a bunch of people at the company who shouldn’t be here.
– Mark Zuckerberg, CEO, Meta

Also in July, Twitter laid off 30% of its talent acquisition team. An exact number was not available, but the team was estimated to have less than 100 employees. The company has also enacted a hiring freeze as it stumbles through a botched acquisition by Elon Musk.

More Layoffs to Come…

Layoffs are expected to continue throughout the rest of this year, as metrics like consumer sentiment enter a decline. Rising interest rates, which make it more expensive for businesses to borrow money, are also having a negative impact on growth.

In fact just a few days ago, trading platform Robinhood announced it was letting go 23% of its staff. After accounting for its previous layoffs in April (9% of the workforce), it’s fair to estimate that this latest round will impact nearly 800 people.