The World’s Largest Economy
The U.S. is the world’s largest economy by nominal GDP, and its influence on the global economy is quite remarkable.
As of 2019, the U.S. made up almost a quarter of the global economy. But how has America’s share of the economic pie changed over time?
The U.S. Share of the Global Economy Over Time
While the U.S. economy has grown quickly over time, the global economy has grown quicker.
Since peaking at 40% in 1960, the U.S. share of the world economy has been cut almost in half, despite a rising national GDP and being the birthplace of some of the biggest companies on the planet.
|Year||Global GDP||U.S. GDP||U.S. Share of Global Economy|
The decline of America’s contribution to global GDP has been slow and uneven, with crests and troughs along the way.
Between 1965 and 1980, the country’s share fell by 13 percentage points, mainly due to stagflation of the 1970s. This decline was followed by Reaganomics and a period of strong recovery, which helped propel the U.S. share of the global economy back up to 34% by 1985.
The whipsawing would continue. Between 1985 and 1995, the U.S share fell by another 11 percentage points, only to bounce back to a local peak of 30% by the year 2000.
Downhill From Here?
Since the beginning of the 21st century, growth in many developing markets has continued at a rapid pace—and the U.S. share of the global economy has decreased as a result.
Until 2005, the U.S. still accounted for 28% of global GDP, but the Global Financial Crisis left a big dent, and its share fell to 23% by 2010. It has since remained relatively stable at 24%.
It’s important to put this decline into perspective. For instance, China’s share of the global economy grew from 4% in 1960 to 16.3% in 2019. Over that same time period, other countries like South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, and India also saw their emergence on the economic world stage, as well.
What the Future Holds
The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the course of the global economy, with most countries experiencing a recession in 2020. America’s economic position will depend on how quickly it can recover compared to the rest of the world.
Seeing Red: Is the Heydey of Pandemic Stocks Over?
Worries over post-COVID demand and rising interest rates have fueled a market selloff, with pandemic stocks hit particularly hard.
Seeing Red: Is the Heydey of Pandemic Stocks Over?
The stock market, and the stocks that flourished during the COVID-19 pandemic in particular, are off to a rough start in 2022. If you’ve been watching your investment accounts, chances are you’ve been seeing a lot of red. Shaken by the uncertainty of a pandemic recovery and future interest rate hikes, investors have been selling off their stocks.
This market selloff—which occurs when investors sell a large volume of securities in a short period of time, leading to a rapid decline in price—has investors concerned. In fact, search interest for the term “selloff” recently reached peak interest of 100.
Which stocks were the hardest hit, and how much are their prices down so far this year?
The Lackluster Returns of Pandemic Stocks
Pandemic stocks and tech-centric companies have suffered the most. Here’s a closer look at the year-to-date price returns for select stocks.
|Company||Year-to-Date Price Return|
Price returns are in U.S. dollars based on data from January 3, 2022 to January 21, 2022.
Netflix fueled the selloff after it reported disappointing subscriber growth. The company added 8.28 million subscribers in the fourth quarter, which is less than the 8.5 million it added in the fourth quarter of 2020. It also projects to have slower year-over-year subscriber growth in the near term, citing competition from other streaming companies.
Meanwhile, Coinbase stock lost nearly a quarter of its value so far this year. As the price of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have plummeted, investors worry Coinbase will see lower trading volume and therefore lower fees.
The contagion also spread to other pandemic stocks, such as Zoom and DocuSign, as investors began to doubt the staying power of stay-at-home stocks.
Following the Herd
While investor exuberance drove many of these stocks up last year, 2022 is beginning to paint a different picture.
Investors are worried that rising rates will negatively impact high-growth stocks, because it means it’s more expensive to borrow money. Not only that, but they also may see Netflix’s growth as harbinger of things to come for other pandemic stocks.
The psychology of the market cycle also plays a role—amid these fears, investors have adopted a herd mentality and begun selling their shares in droves.
How People Around the World Feel About Their Economic Prospects
In many of the world’s largest economies, including the U.S., Germany, and China, optimism around economic prospects sits at an all-time low.
How Countries Feel About Their Economic Prospects
Each year, the Edelman Trust Barometer report helps gauge the level of trust people place in various systems of power.
The report is also a useful tool to gauge the general mood in countries around the world—and when it comes to how people in developed economies feel about the near future, there’s a very clear answer: pessimistic. In fact, optimism about respondents’ economic prospects fell in the majority of countries surveyed.
Here’s a full look how many respondents in 28 countries feel they and their families will be doing better over the next five years. Or, put more simply, what percentage of people are optimistic about their economic circumstances?
|Country||% who are optimistic||All-time low?||Change from 2021 (p.p.)|
|🇰🇷 South Korea||39%||+6|
|🇿🇦 South Africa||66%||-2|
|🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia||73%||0|
Interestingly, nine countries (those with checkmarks above) are polling at all-time lows for economic optimism in survey history.
Whose Glass is Half Empty?
Japanese respondents were the most pessimistic, with only 15% seeing positive economic prospects in the near term. Only 18% of French respondents were economically optimistic.
While most developed economies were slightly more optimistic than Japan and France, all are still well below the global average.
As tensions between China and the U.S. continue to heat up in 2022, there is one thing that can unite citizens in the two countries—a general feeling that economic prospects are souring. As the U.S. heads into midterm elections and China’s 20th National Party Congress takes place, leaders in both countries will surely have the economy on their minds.
Whose Glass is Half Full?
Of course, the mood isn’t all doom and gloom everywhere. The United Arab Emirates saw a 6 percentage point (p.p.) jump in their population’s economic prospects.
Indonesia saw an 11 p.p. increase, and in big developing economies like Brazil and India, the general level of optimism is still quite high.
In some ways, it’s no surprise that people in developing economies are more optimistic about their economic prospects. Living standards are generally rising in many of these countries, and more opportunities open up as the economy grows. Even in the most pessimistic African country surveyed, South Africa, the majority of people still see improving circumstances in their near future. In Kenya and Nigeria, an overwhelming majority are optimistic.
One major prediction that experts agreed on for the year ahead is that economic outcomes will begin to diverge between countries with differing levels of vaccine access.
While this doesn’t seem to have affected attitudes towards economic optimism yet, it remains to be seen how this will play out as the year progresses.
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