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The U.S. Share of the Global Economy Over Time

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The U.S. share of global economy

us share of global gdp

The Briefing

  • The U.S. share of the global economy has nearly halved since 1960
  • America’s nominal GDP in current U.S. dollars is $21.4 trillion, or about 24% of the share of the global economy

The World’s Largest Economy

The U.S. is the world’s largest economy by nominal GDP, and its influence on the global economy is quite remarkable.

As of 2019, the U.S. made up almost a quarter of the global economy. But how has America’s share of the economic pie changed over time?

The U.S. Share of the Global Economy Over Time

While the U.S. economy has grown quickly over time, the global economy has grown quicker.

Since peaking at 40% in 1960, the U.S. share of the world economy has been cut almost in half, despite a rising national GDP and being the birthplace of some of the biggest companies on the planet.

YearGlobal GDPU.S. GDPU.S. Share of Global Economy
1960$1.37T$0.53T40%
1965$1.97T$0.74T38%
1970$2.96T$1.07T36%
1975$5.92T$1.69T28%
1980$11.23T$2.86T25%
1985$12.79T$4.34T34%
1990$22.63T$5.96T26%
1995$30.89T$7.64T25%
2000$33.62T$10.25T30%
2005$47.53T$13.04T28%
2010$66.13T$14.99T23%
2015$75.22T$18.23T24%
2019$87.80T$21.43T24%

The decline of America’s contribution to global GDP has been slow and uneven, with crests and troughs along the way.

Between 1965 and 1980, the country’s share fell by 13 percentage points, mainly due to stagflation of the 1970s. This decline was followed by Reaganomics and a period of strong recovery, which helped propel the U.S. share of the global economy back up to 34% by 1985.

The whipsawing would continue. Between 1985 and 1995, the U.S share fell by another 11 percentage points, only to bounce back to a local peak of 30% by the year 2000.

Downhill From Here?

Since the beginning of the 21st century, growth in many developing markets has continued at a rapid pace—and the U.S. share of the global economy has decreased as a result.

Until 2005, the U.S. still accounted for 28% of global GDP, but the Global Financial Crisis left a big dent, and its share fell to 23% by 2010. It has since remained relatively stable at 24%.

It’s important to put this decline into perspective. For instance, China’s share of the global economy grew from 4% in 1960 to 16.3% in 2019. Over that same time period, other countries like South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, and India also saw their emergence on the economic world stage, as well.

What the Future Holds

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the course of the global economy, with most countries experiencing a recession in 2020. America’s economic position will depend on how quickly it can recover compared to the rest of the world.

Where does this data come from?

Source: The World Bank
Details: Data is in current U.S. dollars. Dollar figures for GDP are converted from domestic currencies using single year official exchange rates.

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Datastream

Ranked: The Performance of Restaurant Stocks on the NYSE

Restaurants are increasingly digitally driven, and this shift can be seen in the recent performance of the 18 restaurant stocks on the NYSE.

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restaurant stocks 12 month performance

The Briefing

  • In the last 12 months, the performance of restaurant stocks on the NYSE ranges from 90% to -21%
  • The average return for restaurant stocks has been 16.8%, underperforming the NYSE Composite’s 23.8% over the same time period.
  • Executing on a digital ecosystem has been a big driver of value for the best performers on the list

Restaurant Stocks on the NYSE

Restaurants, arguably more than other industries, have had to adjust swiftly to a new and unrecognizable landscape during the pandemic. And the level of preparedness towards adverse and unpredictable conditions reflects in the last 12 month (LTM) stock price performance of the 18 restaurant stocks on the NYSE.

The performance for this basket of stocks ranges from a high of 90% to a low of -21%. The companies that have rewarded shareholders are at the forefront of industry trends, doubling down on a digital ecosystem through concepts like membership programs, ghost kitchens, delivery, and mobile sales.

Winners and Losers

The vast division of stock price performance has a David and Goliath component to it in that the larger companies with deeper pockets have had the ability to invest in modern initiatives.

The top five performing stocks have an average market cap of $14 billion, while the bottom five possess an average of $630 million.

StockLast 12 Month PerformanceMarket Cap ($M)
Brinker International, Inc.90.85%$3,120
Shake Shack, Inc.88.63%$4,970
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.70.19%$40,580
Yum China Holdings, Inc.37.53%$25,090
Luby's, Inc.32.92%$98
Darden Restaurants, Inc.28.26%$17,900
Flanigan's Enterprises, Inc.16.10%$44
Yum! Brands, Inc.6.18%$31,060
Biglari Holdings Inc.2.90%$356
Cannae Holdings, Inc.-1.87%$3,420
McDonald's Corporation-1.88%$153,690
Restaurant Brands International, Inc.-2.81%$27,580
Aramark-4.82%$9,650
J. Alexander's Holdings, Inc.-6.12%$131
Dine Brands Global, Inc-9.25%$1,330
Biglari holdings (Class A)-10.20%$363
Drive Shack Inc.-11.82%$238
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.-21.23%$1,100

Digital Haves and Have Nots

The same types of initiatives appear to be paying off, especially for the biggest winners.

  1. Brinker International has exceeded expectations with its ghost kitchen virtual offering—It’s Just Wings. A ghost kitchen is a restaurant optimized strictly for delivery, with a no dine-in approach and a condensed menu, they are intended to achieve higher margins.
  2. Shake Shack saw 60% of shack sales go digital in Q3’20. Their digital footprint is expected to grow along with their target to open 50-60 new locations in 2021.
  3. Chipotle’s loyalty rewards member program reached 17 million members as of late. Furthermore, digital sales grew 177% year-over-year in their fourth quarter, and nearly 50% of revenues are now derived from digital orders.
  4. Dine-in Drought

    Those in negative territory have not had the same good fortune. They tend to be sit-down establishments suffering from drastic falls in foot traffic.

    Without a pre-existing digital presence to reach customers, sales run the risk of taking a nosedive. Hospitality workers are among those hardest hit by the pandemic, and a lack of demand for hospitality labor again points to the dire circumstances for some sit-down restaurants.

    Delivery Mania

    For the food industry, the fall in foot traffic is partially offset by the rise in food delivery. Pure play companies in the food delivery space like DoorDash and Grubhub have fared well. Grubhub reported 622,700 Daily Average Grubs (daily deliveries) in 2020, up from 492,300 from the year prior. And for Uber, growth in the delivery segment of their business has buoyed the decline in ride hailing.

    With the vaccine rollouts in play, the restaurant stocks on the NYSE may get a much-needed boost. But pandemic or not, the digital trends in the restaurant space will continue to shape the industry after COVID-19 just as it has done prior.

Where does this data come from?

Source: Top Foreign Stocks
Notes: Data is as of March 1, 2021

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Charted: Money Can Buy Happiness After All

We’ve heard that money can only buy happiness up to a certain point. But a new study suggests cut-off may be a lot higher than we thought.

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The Briefing

  • Previous research has indicated that money stops buying happiness after $75,000/year
  • However, new research finds a strong correlation between income and happiness, trending upwards even after $80,000/year

In One Chart: Money Can Buy Happiness After All

What’s the relationship between money and happiness? Previous studies have indicated that, while money can in fact buy happiness, it plateaus at approximately $75,000/year.

However, new research suggests otherwise.

Using over a million real-time reports from a large U.S. sample group, a recent study found that happiness increases linearly with reported income (logarithmic), and continues to rise beyond the $80,000/year mark.

Below, we’ll provide more details on the research methodology, while touching on a few possible reasons why higher incomes may improve people’s happiness levels.

How is Happiness Measured?

Past research on happiness relative to income has relied on retrospective data, which leaves room for human memory errors. In contrast, this new study uses real-time, logged data from a mood tracking app, allowing for a more accurate representation of respondents’ experienced well-being.

Data was also collected by random prompts over a period of time, with dozens of entries logged for each single respondent. This provides a more well-rounded representation of a person’s overall well-being.

Two forms of well-being were measured in this study:

  • Experienced well-being
    A person’s mood and feeling throughout daily life.
  • Evaluative well-being:
    Someone’s perception of their life upon reflection.

Both forms of well-being increased with higher incomes, but evaluative well-being showed a more drastic split between the lower and higher income groups.

The Results (Measured in Standard Deviations from Mean)

Annual IncomeWell-Being (Experienced)Well-Being (Evaluative)
$15,000-0.21-0.34
$25,000-0.11-0.32
$35,000-0.09-0.19
$45,000-0.06-0.15
$55,000-0.05-0.07
$65,000-0.03-0.04
$75,000-0.01-0.02
$85,0000.010.03
$95,0000.030.01
$112,5000.040.08
$137,5000.060.17
$175,0000.080.17
$250,0000.170.24
$400,0000.190.35
$625,0000.150.38

Why Does Money Buy Happiness?

The report warns that any theories behind why happiness increases with income are purely speculative. However, it does list a few possibilities:

  • Increased comfort
    As someone earns more, they may have the ability to purchase things that reduce suffering. This is particularly true when comparing low to moderate income groups—larger incomes below $80,000/year still showed a strong association with reduced negative feelings.
  • More control
    Control seems to be tied to respondents’ happiness levels. In fact, having a sense of control accounted for 74% of the association between income and well-being.
  • Money matters
    Not all respondents cared about money. But for those who did, it had a significant impact on their perceived well-being. In general, lower income earners were happier if they didn’t value money, while higher income earners were happier if they thought money mattered.

Whatever the cause may be, one thing is clear—Biggie Smalls was wrong. Looks like more money doesn’t necessarily mean more problems.

»Like this? Then you might enjoy this article, Which Countries are the Most (and Least) Happy?

Where does this data come from?

Source: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Details: Participants were 33,391 employed adults living in the United States; median age was 33; median household income was $85,000/y (25th percentile = $45,000; 75th percentile = $137,500; mean = $106,548; SD = $95,393); 36% were male; and 37% were married

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