Debt

Charted: U.S. National Debt, as a Percent of GDP (1900-2035P)

Published

1 month ago

February 5, 2025

Dorothy Neufeld

Graphics/Design:

Joyce Ma

See this visualization first on the Voronoi app.

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Charted: The U.S. National Debt (1900-2035P)

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This year, U.S. national debt is set to approach 100% of GDP, up from 36% in 2005.

By 2035, the tab is projected to reach 118.5% of GDP as higher debt costs steepen the deficit, fueling further government borrowing. Today, the deficit stands at $1.9 trillion with net interest and mandatory spending outpacing revenues.

This graphic shows U.S. federal debt projections to 2035, based on data from the Congressional Budget Office.

Swimming in Debt

Below, we show how national debt held by the public is set to mushroom over the next decade:

Year	U.S. Federal Debt as a % of GDP
2035P	118.5
2034P	117.1
2033P	115.3
2032P	113.0
2031P	111.1
2030P	109.2
2029P	107.2
2028P	105.4
2027P	103.4
2026P	101.7
2025P	99.9
2024	97.8
2023	96.0
2022	95.0
2021	96.9
2020	98.6
2019	78.9
2018	77.1
2017	75.7
2016	76.0
2015	72.2
2014	73.3
2013	71.8
2012	70.0
2011	65.5
2010	60.6
2009	52.2
2008	39.2
2007	35.2
2006	35.4
2005	35.8
2004	35.7
2003	34.7
2002	32.7
2001	31.5
2000	33.7
1999	38.3
1998	41.7
1997	44.6
1996	47.0
1995	47.7
1994	47.8
1993	47.9
1992	46.8
1991	44.1
1990	40.9
1989	39.4
1988	39.9
1987	39.6
1986	38.5
1985	35.3
1984	33.1
1983	32.2
1982	27.9
1981	25.2
1980	25.5
1979	25.0
1978	26.7
1977	27.1
1976	26.7
1975	24.6
1974	23.2
1973	25.2
1972	26.5
1971	27.1
1970	27.1
1969	28.4
1968	32.3
1967	31.9
1966	33.8
1965	36.8
1964	38.8
1963	41.1
1962	42.3
1961	43.6
1960	44.3
1959	46.5
1958	47.8
1957	47.3
1956	50.7
1955	55.8
1954	58.0
1953	57.2
1952	60.1
1951	65.5
1950	78.6
1949	77.4
1948	82.4
1947	93.9
1946	106.1
1945	103.9
1944	86.4
1943	69.2
1942	45.9
1941	41.5
1940	43.6
1939	42.4
1938	42.2
1937	39.6
1936	42.5
1935	42.4
1934	43.5
1933	38.6
1932	34.0
1931	22.0
1930	16.3
1929	14.8
1928	17.0
1927	18.0
1926	19.0
1925	21.6
1924	23.5
1923	25.2
1922	31.1
1921	31.6
1920	27.3
1919	33.4
1918	30.2
1917	13.3
1916	2.7
1915	3.3
1914	3.5
1913	3.2
1912	3.4
1911	3.6
1910	3.7
1909	3.8
1908	4.3
1907	4.0
1906	4.0
1905	4.3
1904	4.7
1903	5
1902	5.4
1901	5.7
1900	6.6

By 2029, federal debt is forecast to exceed the post-WWII record based on an outlook that doesn’t factor in recessions.

This comes amid a widening deficit during a period of low unemployment and a growing U.S. economy. In many ways, this counters the theory of shrinking the deficit during economic expansion and increasing the deficit during downturns.

Looking ahead, net interest on the federal debt is expected to nearly double from 2024 levels, reaching $1.8 trillion by 2035. To put it in perspective, interest costs will be 1.7 times higher than defense spending that year.

While Modern Monetary Theory suggests that countries that have control over their currencies will never face default since they can print more money, evidence from history suggests a different outcome.

From the British Empire and Habsburg Spain to the Ottoman Empire, historian Niall Ferguson finds that superpowers that have spent more on debt servicing costs than defense have not held onto power for very long.