Datastream
U.S. Equity Funds Post Slower Inflows
The Briefing
- U.S. equity fund flows sank to $48 billion in February, a 70% decline from March 2021
- Large growth funds continue to see outflows as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine escalates
U.S. Equity Funds Post Slower Inflows
Investors are bracing for several interest rate hikes amid a Russia-Ukraine war.
In February, U.S. equity fund flows hit $48 billion, a 70% decline from the year before. In the previous month, U.S. equity fund flows hit their lowest level since the pandemic began.
With data from Morningstar, we show how the invasion of Ukraine and a rising rate environment has affected U.S. equity fund flows.
Risk-Off Environment
In January, investors shed a record $23 billion from large growth funds, the highest level since 2017. This trend continued in February as investors sought out lower-risk investments.
Growth stocks historically tend to outperform when interest rates are declining. When the price of capital is low, companies borrow and expand operations at a lower cost.
The reverse is true when rates rise, putting pressure on corporate earnings and equity valuations. In March 2022, the Fed raised interest rates for the first time since 2018.
Growth funds also tend to be more volatile during market selloffs. So far in 2022, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is up more than 40%.
| Fund Category | January 2022 Estimated Net Flow | February Estimated Net Flow |
|---|---|---|
| Large Growth | -$23.2B | -$6.0B |
| Mid-Cap Growth | -$3.5B | -$1.2B |
| Small Growth | -$2.7B | -$1.1B |
| Large Blend | -$3.5B | $38.5B |
| Mid-Cap Blend | $0.7B | $2.1B |
| Small Blend | -$0.4B | $0.9B |
| Large Value | $10.9B | $15.8B |
| Mid-Cap Value | $0.1B | $1.0B |
| Small Value | $1.6B | $0.2B |
Large blend funds saw the highest inflows, at $38.5 billion, while large cap value funds saw a moderate $15.8 billion in inflows.
Unlike growth funds, value funds tend to outperform when interest rates are rising. Over the last decade, growth funds, marked by low-margins and high valuations have shown stronger performance than value.
U.S. Equity Funds by Sector
Which U.S. equity fund sectors saw the highest inflows and outflows?
| Sector Category | Estimated Net Flow – Feb 2022 | Estimated Net Flow – YTD 2022 |
|---|---|---|
| Equity Energy | $1.7B | $5.2B |
| Consumer Defensive | $1.0B | $3.6B |
| Natural Resources | $0.8B | $1.5B |
| Consumer Cyclical | -$1.5B | -$3.7B |
| Health | -$1.8B | -$3.7B |
| Technology | -$1.9B | -$6.8B |
Energy, consumer defensive, and natural resources—all typically cyclical, value-skewed sectors—saw the highest inflows at $1.7 billion, $1.0 billion, and $0.8 billion, respectively. Gas prices in the U.S. have hit record prices amid supply pressures from the war.
Meanwhile, investors withdrew $1.9 billion from technology sector funds in February, the highest out of any sector category. Year-to-date, technology sector funds have seen almost $7 billion in net outflows.
As investors veer away from growth sectors, they are flocking to safer assets, like money market funds as the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine unfolds.
Where does this data come from?
Source: Morningstar February 2022 U.S. Fund Flows Report, March 2022.
Economy
Charted: Public Trust in the Federal Reserve
Public trust in the Federal Reserve chair has hit its lowest point in 20 years. Get the details in this infographic.
The Briefing
- Gallup conducts an annual poll to gauge the U.S. public’s trust in the Federal Reserve
- After rising during the COVID-19 pandemic, public trust has fallen to a 20-year low
Charted: Public Trust in the Federal Reserve
Each year, Gallup conducts a survey of American adults on various economic topics, including the country’s central bank, the Federal Reserve.
More specifically, respondents are asked how much confidence they have in the current Fed chairman to do or recommend the right thing for the U.S. economy. We’ve visualized these results from 2001 to 2023 to see how confidence levels have changed over time.
Methodology and Results
The data used in this infographic is also listed in the table below. Percentages reflect the share of respondents that have either a “great deal” or “fair amount” of confidence.
| Year | Fed chair | % Great deal or Fair amount |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Jerome Powell | 36% |
| 2022 | Jerome Powell | 43% |
| 2021 | Jerome Powell | 55% |
| 2020 | Jerome Powell | 58% |
| 2019 | Jerome Powell | 50% |
| 2018 | Jerome Powell | 45% |
| 2017 | Janet Yellen | 45% |
| 2016 | Janet Yellen | 38% |
| 2015 | Janet Yellen | 42% |
| 2014 | Janet Yellen | 37% |
| 2013 | Ben Bernanke | 42% |
| 2012 | Ben Bernanke | 39% |
| 2011 | Ben Bernanke | 41% |
| 2010 | Ben Bernanke | 44% |
| 2009 | Ben Bernanke | 49% |
| 2008 | Ben Bernanke | 47% |
| 2007 | Ben Bernanke | 50% |
| 2006 | Ben Bernanke | 41% |
| 2005 | Alan Greenspan | 56% |
| 2004 | Alan Greenspan | 61% |
| 2003 | Alan Greenspan | 65% |
| 2002 | Alan Greenspan | 69% |
| 2001 | Alan Greenspan | 74% |
Data for 2023 collected April 3-25, with this statement put to respondents: “Please tell me how much confidence you have [in the Fed chair] to recommend the right thing for the economy.”
We can see that trust in the Federal Reserve has fluctuated significantly in recent years.
For example, under Alan Greenspan, trust was initially high due to the relative stability of the economy. The burst of the dotcom bubble—which some attribute to Greenspan’s easy credit policies—resulted in a sharp decline.
On the flip side, public confidence spiked during the COVID-19 pandemic. This was likely due to Jerome Powell’s decisive actions to provide support to the U.S. economy throughout the crisis.
Measures implemented by the Fed include bringing interest rates to near zero, quantitative easing (buying government bonds with newly-printed money), and emergency lending programs to businesses.
Confidence Now on the Decline
After peaking at 58%, those with a “great deal” or “fair amount” of trust in the Fed chair have tumbled to 36%, the lowest number in 20 years.
This is likely due to Powell’s hard stance on fighting post-pandemic inflation, which has involved raising interest rates at an incredible speed. While these rate hikes may be necessary, they also have many adverse effects:
- Negative impact on the stock market
- Increases the burden for those with variable-rate debts
- Makes mortgages and home buying less affordable
Higher rates have also prompted many U.S. tech companies to shrink their workforces, and have been a factor in the regional banking crisis, including the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
Where does this data come from?
Source: Gallup (2023)
Data Notes: Results are based on telephone interviews conducted April 3-25, 2023, with a random sample of –1,013—adults, ages 18+, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on this sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. See source for details.
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