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The Top 10 Reasons Investors Should Look at Cobalt

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Every once in a while, a previously underappreciated metal rises to prominence.

Several factors can cause this to happen: new technology, changing consumer preferences, supply constraints, or skyrocketing demand can all bring an unknown metal to the forefront of discussion.

Cobalt could be the latest metal that fits this description. It’s a crucial metal to the boom in lithium-ion battery demand, but it also has an increasingly precarious supply chain that could be very volatile moving forward.

Why Investors Should Look at Cobalt

Today’s infographic comes from eCobalt Solutions, a company focused on providing ethically produced and environmentally sound battery grade cobalt salts.

It presents the investment case for the relatively unknown metal.

The Top 10 Reasons Investors Should Look at Cobalt

With the green movement in full swing, there is compelling evidence that cobalt could be the next relatively unknown metal to rise to prominence.

Here are the top 10 reasons that investors should look at cobalt:

1. Cobalt is one of the few metals used for superalloys.

Nearly 20% of all cobalt is used for superalloys – a class of high-tech metals that originally emerged to suit the high operating temperatures of jet engines.

There are three main superalloy types:

  • Nickel-based: the bulk of alloys produced
  • Cobalt-based: higher melting point gives ability to absorb stress, and corrosion resistance
  • Iron-based: the original superalloy, invented prior to the 1940s

Their use has extended into many other fields – and today, superalloys are used in all types of turbines, space vehicles, rocket engines, nuclear reactors, power plants, and chemical equipment.

2. The green economy runs on cobalt.

There are many types of lithium-ion batteries, but the vast majority of li-ions sold today use cobalt in some capacity.

In fact, by 2020 it is expected that 75% of lithium-ion batteries will contain cobalt. Why? It’s because cobalt is the most important metal for increasing the energy density of lithium-ion cathodes.

3. …And green uses such as EVs are driving the upwards trajectory of cobalt demand.

By 2020, almost 1/5 of cobalt demand will stem from electric vehicles.

Total refined cobalt demand:

YearDemand% xEV batteries% Electronics batteries
201064,000<1%30%
201595,0006%36%
2020e124,00017%31%

Source: CRU

“Cobalt’s demand growth profile remains one of the best among industrial metals peers. Its exposure to rechargeable batteries continues to play a crucial role.” – Macquarie

4. Getting cobalt is the hard part.

98% of cobalt is produced as a by-product of copper and nickel mines. The problem? If copper and nickel production isn’t growing, then more cobalt isn’t mined to meet demand.

5. Why not find more cobalt?

It’s easier said than done. The vast majority of the world’s cobalt lies in risky regions like the DRC.

Country% Cobalt Supply in 2014
DRC58%
Russia6%
Cuba5%
Australia5%
Philippines4%
Madagascar4%
Other19%

Source: CRU

6. And so supply can tighten…

Chemical cobalt – the kind used in batteries, is expected to fall into a growing deficit over the next few years. By 2020, CRU expects that deficit to be at least 12,000 tonnes.

7. Meanwhile, the U.S. government definitely doesn’t have any strategic stockpiles.

According to the U.S Defense Logistics Agency, the government sold off cobalt all the way up until 2008. Now there is only 301 tonnes left in strategic stockpiles.

8. Cobalt was one of the best-performing metals in 2016.

Metal2016 performance
Zinc66%
Cobalt47%
Nickel17%
Aluminum17%
Copper17%
Silver16%
Gold9%
Platinum1%
Uranium-42%

9. Cobalt prices have been rising, but they are nowhere near all-time highs yet.

All-time highs for cobalt prices happened in 2008, after the DRC government placed restrictions on export of ores and concentrates. For a brief stint, cobalt prices even exceeded $50/lb.

The current price? Roughly $16/lb.

10. Many experts predict the cobalt market to be interesting to watch in 2017:

“Just how much cobalt is in stockpiles in China is the Million Dollar Question. Clarity here can materially affect the cobalt price.” Chris Berry, House Mountain Partners, LLC

“The refined cobalt market will fall into a 3,000 tonne deficit this year following seven years of overcapacity and oversupply. CRU anticipates prices to increase onward into 2017…” – Edward Spencer, CRU Group

“With this growth will come further disruption to the traditional market structures that have developed in cobalt over the last 30 years. In short, a new, more secure supply chain for the modern era will need to be created, a task that includes new mines, new refineries, and a more transparent supply chain.” – Andrew Miller, Benchmark Minerals

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Energy

How Much Does the U.S. Depend on Russian Uranium?

Currently, Russia is the largest foreign supplier of nuclear power fuel to the U.S.

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Voronoi graphic visualizing U.S. reliance on Russian uranium

How Much Does the U.S. Depend on Russian Uranium?

This was originally posted on Elements. Sign up to the free mailing list to get beautiful visualizations on natural resource megatrends in your email.

The U.S. House of Representatives recently passed a ban on imports of Russian uranium. The bill must pass the Senate before becoming law.

In this graphic, we visualize how much the U.S. relies on Russian uranium, based on data from the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA).

U.S. Suppliers of Enriched Uranium

After Russia invaded Ukraine, the U.S. imposed sanctions on Russian-produced oil and gas—yet Russian-enriched uranium is still being imported.

Currently, Russia is the largest foreign supplier of nuclear power fuel to the United States. In 2022, Russia supplied almost a quarter of the enriched uranium used to fuel America’s fleet of more than 90 commercial reactors.

Country of enrichment serviceSWU%
🇺🇸 United States3,87627.34%
🇷🇺 Russia3,40924.04%
🇩🇪 Germany1,76312.40%
🇬🇧 United Kingdom1,59311.23%
🇳🇱 Netherlands1,3039.20%
Other2,23215.79%
Total14,176100%

SWU stands for “Separative Work Unit” in the uranium industry. It is a measure of the amount of work required to separate isotopes of uranium during the enrichment process. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Most of the remaining uranium is imported from European countries, while another portion is produced by a British-Dutch-German consortium operating in the United States called Urenco.

Similarly, nearly a dozen countries around the world depend on Russia for more than half of their enriched uranium—and many of them are NATO-allied members and allies of Ukraine.

In 2023 alone, the U.S. nuclear industry paid over $800 million to Russia’s state-owned nuclear energy corporation, Rosatom, and its fuel subsidiaries.

It is important to note that 19% of electricity in the U.S. is powered by nuclear plants.

The dependency on Russian fuels dates back to the 1990s when the United States turned away from its own enrichment capabilities in favor of using down-blended stocks of Soviet-era weapons-grade uranium.

As part of the new uranium-ban bill, the Biden administration plans to allocate $2.2 billion for the expansion of uranium enrichment facilities in the United States.

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