Three Major Reasons for Gold in 2016
Presented by: Advantage Gold
This year looks to be another one of increased volatility as the market see-saws in different directions. Here are three compelling reasons why 2016 may be the perfect time to add gold to your portfolio.
1: “Stay the Course”
Financial experts often mention that “buying and holding” stocks through good and bad times is the best way to guarantee returns.
Investors that bought equities before the Financial Crisis have had a 20.2% return up until January 25, 2016. They “stayed the course” and were rewarded with an eventual return.
However, those that held gold during that same time period until today have had a 48.6% return, which is more than double that of the general market. This is even true with gold declining roughly 40% from its peak since late 2011.
Does it make more sense to “stay the course” in 2016 with stocks, or gold?
2: Two-Term Presidents
The last four presidents to serve two terms have had stock markets rise significantly during their tenures.
However, the stock markets also suffered catastrophic losses in each of their final years as president.
For example, during George W. Bush’s tenure, the S&P 500 nearly doubled from a bottom of 801 during the Dotcom bust to a peak of 1,562. Then the Financial Crisis hit at the end of Bush’s second term and the market went down to 677 points.
Obama is now in his last year, and the market is up 178% from its bottom in 2009. Will the trend continue?
3: Oil vs. Gold
Oil and gold have a relatively strong historical relationship. They are hard assets that move similarly in inflationary environments.
However, gold and oil also have some major differences in how supply and demand tends to affect the price.
Oil: Every day the world consumes 93 million barrels of oil. However, over the last two years there has been an excess of supply coupled with weakening demand from China and a slowing world economy. This has led to oil falling from over $100 per barrel to $30. Despite this glut, OPEC continues to produce record amounts of oil to maintain market share. Oil is delivered and consumed, and these fundamentals of supply and demand closely apply. More supply + weakening demand = lower prices.
Gold: Meanwhile, gold miner production is expected to peak in 2015 or 2016, and to decrease from there. Since gold is mostly traded via paper markets and not delivered, the nearly five-year low price point for gold may not fully reflect its supply and demand fundamentals. Gold discoveries are rarer than ever, and the cost and risks to mine are very high. Yet, this declining output is not yet seen in the gold price.
Gold to Oil Ratio
Lastly, the ratio between these two goods helps to explain what is going on in the world. Gold represents a safe haven during times of financial stress, and oil represents the overall health of the economy and industry.
The gold to oil ratio is expressed in the amount of oil barrels that can be bought with 1 oz of gold. A lower ratio means that the economy is doing well. Meanwhile, history shows that whenever the ratio is above 20, there has been some type of market crisis.
Today, this ratio is higher than ever in history at 37.
Would you rather own oil or gold?
Gold in Nevada: The Real Golden State
Nevada accounts for 84% of U.S. gold production today. Here’s a look at the state’s rich history, its prolific production, and what the future may hold.
The Real Golden State: Gold Production in Nevada
Thanks to the world famous silver discoveries of the 19th century that unveiled Nevada’s precious metal potential, the state today is known by many as “The Silver State”.
However, it’s possible that nickname may need to be updated. In the last few decades, Nevada has become a prolific gold producer, accounting for 84% of total U.S. gold production each year.
Today’s infographic from Corvus Gold showcases why Nevada may have a better case for deserving California’s nickname of the “Golden State”: we look at the state’s gold production, exploration potential, and even its rich history.
A Defining Era for the American West
The discovery of the Comstock silver lode in 1859 sparked a silver rush of prospectors to Nevada, scrambling to stake their claims. News of the discovery spread quickly throughout the United States, drawing thousands into Nevada for one of the largest rushes since the California Gold Rush in 1849. Mining camps soon thrived and eventually became towns, a catalyst that helped turn the territory into an official state by 1864.
Interestingly, many of the early mines also produced considerable quantities of gold, indicating there was more to the state than just silver.
- The Comstock Lode: 8,600,000 troy ounces (270t) of gold until 1959
- The Eureka district: 1,200,000 troy ounces (37t) of gold
- The Robinson copper mine: 2,700,000 troy ounces (84t) of gold
The Comstock Lode is notable not just for the immense fortunes it generated but also the large role those fortunes had in the growth of Nevada and San Francisco.
In fact, there was so much gold and silver flowing into San Francisco, the U.S. Mint opened a branch in the city to safely store it all. Within the first year of its operation, the San Francisco Mint turned $4 million of gold bullion into coins for circulation.
While California gold rushes became history, Nevada mining was just beginning and would spur the development of modern industry. In 2018, California produced 140,000 troy ounces of gold, just a fraction of the 5.58 million oz coming out of Nevada’s ground.
Nevada Gold Mining Geology: Following the Trends
There are three key geological trends from where the majority of Nevada’s gold comes from.
- Cortez Trend
- Carlin Trend
- Walker Lane Trend
Together these trends contributed nearly 170 million ounces of gold produced in Nevada between 1835 and 2018, making it the United States’ most productive gold jurisdiction, if not the world’s.
The bulk of production comes from the Cortez and Carlin Trends, where mines extract low grade gold from a particular type of mineral deposit, the Carlin Type Gold deposit. It was the discovery and technology used for processing these “invisible” deposits that would turn Nevada into the golden powerhouse of production.
Today, the world’s largest gold mining complex, Nevada Gold Mines, is located on the Carlin Trend. The joint venture between Barrick and Newmont comprises eight mines, along with their infrastructure and processing facilities.
Despite the prolific production of modern mines in the state, more discoveries will be needed to feed this production pipeline—and discoveries are on the decline in Nevada.
Looking to the Future Through the Past: The Walker Lane Trend
The future for gold mining in Nevada may lie in the Walker Lane Trend. This trend is host to some of the most recent gold discoveries, and has attracted the interest of major mining companies looking to conduct exploration, and eventually, production.
Walker Lane stands out with exceptional high-grades, growing reserves, and massive discovery potential. It also played an integral role in the history of the state beginning with the 1859 discovery of the Comstock Lode, and it seems likely to continue doing so in the future.
All the World’s Metals and Minerals in One Visualization
This massive infographic reveals the dramatic scale of 2019 non-fuel mineral global production.
All the World’s Metals and Minerals in One Visualization
We live in a material world, in that we rely on materials to make our lives better. Without even realizing it, humans consume enormous amounts of metals and minerals with every convenient food package, impressive building, and technological innovation.
Every year, the United States Geological Service (USGS) publishes commodity summaries outlining global mining statistics for over 90 individual minerals and materials. Today’s infographic visualizes the data to reveal the dramatic scale of 2019 non-fuel mineral production.
Read all the way to the bottom; the data will surprise you.
Non-Fuel Minerals: USGS Methodology
A wide variety of minerals can be classified as “non-fuel”, including precious metals, base metals, industrial minerals, and materials used for construction.
Non-fuel minerals are those not used for fuel, such as oil, natural gas and coal. Once non-fuel minerals are used up, there is no replacing them. However, many can be recycled continuously.
The USGS tracked both refinery and mine production of these various minerals. This means that some minerals are the essential ingredients for others on the list. For example, iron ore is critical for steel production, and bauxite ore gets refined into aluminum.
Top 10 Minerals and Metals by Production
Sand and gravel are at the top of the list of non-fuel mineral production.
As these materials are the basic components for the manufacturing of concrete, roads, and buildings, it’s not surprising they take the lead.
|Rank||Metal/Mineral||2019 Production (millions of metric tons)|
|#1||Sand and Gravel||50,000|
|#3||Iron and Steel||3,200|
These materials fertilize the food we eat, and they also form the structures we live in and the roads we drive on. They are the bones of the global economy.
Let’s dive into some more specific categories covered on the infographic.
While cement, sand, and gravel may be the bones of global infrastructure, base metals are its lifeblood. Their consumption is an important indicator of the overall health of an economy.
Base metals are non-ferrous, meaning they contain no iron. They are often more abundant in nature and sometimes easier to mine, so their prices are generally lower than precious metals.
|Rank||Base Metal||2019 Production (millions of metric tons)|
Base metals are also the critical materials that will help to deliver a green and renewable future. The electrification of everything will require vast amounts of base metals to make everything from batteries to solar cells work.
Gold and precious metals grab the headlines because of their rarity — and their production shows just how rare they are.
|Rank||Precious Metal||2019 Production (metric tons)|
While metals form the structure and veins of the global economy, ultimately it is humans and animals that make the flesh of the world, driving consumption patterns.
A Material World: A Perspective on Scale
The global economy’s appetite for materials has quadrupled since 1970, faster than the population, which only doubled. On average, each human uses more than 13 metric tons of materials per year.
In 2017, it’s estimated that humans consumed 100.6B metric tons of material in total. Half of the total comprises sand, clay, gravel, and cement used for building, along with the other minerals mined to produce fertilizer. Coal, oil, and gas make up 15% of the total, while metal makes up 10%. The final quarter are plants and trees used for food and fuel.
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