Three Major Reasons for Gold in 2016
Presented by: Advantage Gold
This year looks to be another one of increased volatility as the market see-saws in different directions. Here are three compelling reasons why 2016 may be the perfect time to add gold to your portfolio.
1: “Stay the Course”
Financial experts often mention that “buying and holding” stocks through good and bad times is the best way to guarantee returns.
Investors that bought equities before the Financial Crisis have had a 20.2% return up until January 25, 2016. They “stayed the course” and were rewarded with an eventual return.
However, those that held gold during that same time period until today have had a 48.6% return, which is more than double that of the general market. This is even true with gold declining roughly 40% from its peak since late 2011.
Does it make more sense to “stay the course” in 2016 with stocks, or gold?
2: Two-Term Presidents
The last four presidents to serve two terms have had stock markets rise significantly during their tenures.
However, the stock markets also suffered catastrophic losses in each of their final years as president.
For example, during George W. Bush’s tenure, the S&P 500 nearly doubled from a bottom of 801 during the Dotcom bust to a peak of 1,562. Then the Financial Crisis hit at the end of Bush’s second term and the market went down to 677 points.
Obama is now in his last year, and the market is up 178% from its bottom in 2009. Will the trend continue?
3: Oil vs. Gold
Oil and gold have a relatively strong historical relationship. They are hard assets that move similarly in inflationary environments.
However, gold and oil also have some major differences in how supply and demand tends to affect the price.
Oil: Every day the world consumes 93 million barrels of oil. However, over the last two years there has been an excess of supply coupled with weakening demand from China and a slowing world economy. This has led to oil falling from over $100 per barrel to $30. Despite this glut, OPEC continues to produce record amounts of oil to maintain market share. Oil is delivered and consumed, and these fundamentals of supply and demand closely apply. More supply + weakening demand = lower prices.
Gold: Meanwhile, gold miner production is expected to peak in 2015 or 2016, and to decrease from there. Since gold is mostly traded via paper markets and not delivered, the nearly five-year low price point for gold may not fully reflect its supply and demand fundamentals. Gold discoveries are rarer than ever, and the cost and risks to mine are very high. Yet, this declining output is not yet seen in the gold price.
Gold to Oil Ratio
Lastly, the ratio between these two goods helps to explain what is going on in the world. Gold represents a safe haven during times of financial stress, and oil represents the overall health of the economy and industry.
The gold to oil ratio is expressed in the amount of oil barrels that can be bought with 1 oz of gold. A lower ratio means that the economy is doing well. Meanwhile, history shows that whenever the ratio is above 20, there has been some type of market crisis.
Today, this ratio is higher than ever in history at 37.
Would you rather own oil or gold?
The Impact of COVID-19 Shutdowns on the Gold Supply Chain
Chains are only as strong as their weakest link. The COVID-19 shutdowns affected every link in the gold supply chain, from producers to end-users.
How COVID-19 Shutdowns Impact the Gold Supply Chain
Chains are only as strong as their weakest link—and recent COVID-19 shutdowns have affected every link in the gold supply chain, from producers to end-users.
Increased investor demand for gold coupled with a constrained supply has led to high prices and a bullish market, which has been operating despite these pressures on the supply chain.
Today’s infographic comes to us from Sprott Physical Bullion Trust and it outlines the gold supply chain and the impacts COVID shutdowns have had on the gold market.
The Ripple Effect: Stalling a Supply Chain
Disruptions to the gold supply chain have rippled all the way from the mine to the investor:
Some gold mines halted production due to the high-risk to COVID-19 exposure, reducing the supply of gold. In many nations, operations had to shut down as a result of COVID-19 based legal restrictions.
Strict travel regulations restricted the shipment of gold and increased the costs of delivery as less air routes were available and medical supplies were prioritized.
Refineries depend on gold production for input. A reduction in incoming gold and the suspension of labor work shortened the supply of refined gold.
- Metal Traders
Towards the other end of the gold supply chain, traders have faced both constrained supply and increased cost of delivery. These increased costs have translated over to end-users.
- The End Users
Higher demand, lower supply, and increased costs have resulted in higher prices for buyers of gold.
Gold: A Safe Haven for Investors
As the virus spread around the world threatening populations and economies, investors turned to safe-haven investments such as gold to hedge against an economic lockdown.
This increase in investor demand affected the four primary financial markets for gold:
- Futures Contracts:
A futures contract is an agreement for the delivery of gold at a fixed price in the future. These contracts are standardized by futures exchanges such as COMEX. During the initial periods of the pandemic, the price of gold futures spiked to reach a high of US$70 above the spot price.
- Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs):
An ETF is an investment fund traded on stock exchanges. ETFs hold assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities such as gold. From the beginning of 2020 to June, the amount of gold held by ETFs massively increased, from 83 million oz to 103 million oz. The SPDR Gold Trust is a great example of how the surge in ETF demand for gold has played out—the organization was forced to lease gold from the Bank of England when it couldn’t buy enough from suppliers.
- Physical Gold for Commerce and Finance:
The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) is a market where gold is physically traded over-the-counter. The LBMA recorded 6,573 transfers of gold amounting to 29.2 million oz ($46.4 billion)—all in March 2020. This was the largest amount of monthly transfers since 1996.
- Coins and Small Bars:
One ounce American Gold Eagle coins serve as a good proxy for the demand for physical gold from retail investors. The COINGEAG Index, which tracks the premium price of 1 oz. Gold Eagles, spiked during the early stages of the lockdown.
Each one of these markets requires access to physical gold. COVID-19 restrictions have disrupted shipping and delivery options, making it harder to access gold. The market for gold has been functioning nonetheless.
So how does gold get to customers during a time of crisis?
Gold’s Journey: From the Ground to the Vault
Gold ore goes through several stages before being ready for the market.
Gold must be released from other minerals to produce a doré bar—a semi-pure alloy of gold that needs further purification to meet investment standards. Doré bars are typically produced at mine sites and transported to refiners.
Refineries are responsible for turning semi-pure gold alloys into refined, pure, gold. In addition to reprocessing doré bars from mines, refiners also recycle gold from scrap materials. Although gold mining is geographically diverse and occurs in all continents except Antarctica, there are only a handful of gold refineries around the world.
Once it’s refined, gold is transported to financial hubs around the world. There are three main ways gold travels the world, each with their own costs and benefits:
- Commercial Flights:
Cheapest of the three options, commercial flights are useful in transporting gold over established passenger routes. However, the volume of gold carried by a commercial flight is typically small and subject to spacing priorities.
- Cargo Planes:
At a relatively moderate cost, cargo planes carry medium to large amounts of gold along established trade routes. The space dedicated to cargo determines the cost, with higher volumes leading to higher shipping prices.
- Chartered Airlines:
Chartered airlines offer a wider range of travel routes with dedicated shipping space and services tailored to customer demand. However, they charge a high price for these conveniences.
- Commercial Flights:
After reaching its destination via air, armored trucks with security personnel move the gold to vaults and customers in financial hubs around the world.
The World’s Biggest Gold Hubs
The U.K.’s bullion banks hold the world’s biggest commercial stockpiles of gold, equal to 10 months of global gold mine output. London is the largest gold hub, with numerous vaults dedicated to gold and other precious metals.
Four of the largest gold refineries in the world are located in Switzerland, making it an important part of the gold supply chain. Hong Kong, Singapore, and Dubai are surprising additions and remain significant traders of gold despite having no mines within their borders.
COVID-19: The Perfect Storm for Gold?
As countries took stringent safety measures such as travel restrictions and border closures, the number of commercial flights dropped exponentially across the world. For the few commercial airlines that still operated, gold was a low-priority cargo as space was dedicated to medical supplies.
This impeded the flow of gold through the supply chain, increasing the cost of delivery and the price of gold. However, thanks to the diverse geography of gold mining, some countries did not halt production—this helped avoid a complete stall in the supply of gold.
The COVID-19 pandemic has created the perfect storm for gold by disrupting the global supply chain while investor demand for gold exploded. Despite heightened delivery risks and disruptions, the gold market has managed to continue operating thus far.
How to Avoid Common Mistakes With Mining Stocks (Part 2: Business Plan)
Investing in mining stocks may seem like luck of the draw, but the sector can be de-risked by asking the right questions. Here we look at the business plan.
Everyone loves to talk about creating the next great mining business, but are they willing to put that talk into action?
There is real money and real management behind every company—but surprisingly, not every company has a concrete strategy to build a business and create value for shareholders.
Business Plan, or Lack Thereof?
Today’s infographic comes to us from Eclipse Gold Mining and it shows you how to avoid common mistakes when evaluating and investing in mining exploration stocks.
Specifically, we look at five ways that potential investors can detect the presence and viability of a mining company’s business plan.
Visit Part 1 of “Common Mistakes With Mining Stocks” on Team by clicking here
So, what should investors be looking for, when it comes to examining the business plan of a mining exploration company?
#1: Clear Vision vs. All Hope & Dreams
A company should articulate a clear vision rather just simply following the trends and hoping for the best. A long term vision for a business plan is critical as it will be guiding and reminding stakeholders of the company’s purpose through the thick and thin.
Signs of a Clear Vision:
- The company is actively reaching out to investors
- Projects can be profitable at today’s commodity prices
- Provide detailed timelines of work
- Funds committed to work
A clear vision in business will give the company a direction to aim for, allowing everyone to work quickly towards objectives.
#2: Sense of Urgency vs. Wait & See
Time is money, especially in mining. Companies need to build value fast to finance at higher share prices so that early shareholders do not get diluted. A company needs to make concrete decisions that drive towards value creation.
Signs of a Sense of Urgency:
- “Time is now” mentality
- Decisive actions
- Sense of purpose
- Solution-oriented thinking
It is expensive to maintain a company, especially one that does not yet produce income. Expenses add up quickly and that is why management needs to make sure they focus their efforts and money on activities that generate value for shareholders.
#3: Laser Focus vs. Spray & Pray
The mineral exploration business is tough and each project requires the undivided attention of managers. Smart companies maintain incredible focus to de-risk their projects while others spread themselves thin with multiple projects.
- Properties with a focused vision towards production
- Specialized management experience aligned with the project
- Aligning management skill sets with each phase of a project
Signs of a Laser Focus:
In order to assess whether a company has the right focus you have to see whether the company is aligning its human assets with its physical assets and a goal in mind.
This focus will help to clarify the story for investors.
#4: Tell the Story vs. Hiding Behind the Science
Communication and business acumen are the key to take a project to market. Mining requires massive amounts of geological knowledge, but that is not the investor’s job to handle. They do not want to want to know the subtleties of geochemistry—they just want to know whether they can make money from those rocks.
Companies that hide behind a wall of geological slides may not have not a real story to tell, and they may be pulling investors into funding their own science projects. At the same time, investors need to make sure that the data being presented matches the story being told.
Signs of Telling the Story:
- Aware of risks, and communicating those risks
- Clear understanding of local geology
- Data from drill results back up the story
- Consistent message
If a company cannot communicate effectively, how are they going to deal with other, more complicated aspects of a mining business plan?
#5: Endgame in Mind vs. Kicking the Can Down the Road
A journey begins with a single step, but without a business plan and commitment, there will never be an end in sight. Quality companies foresee how their project will come together to generate both liquidity and an exit plan for shareholders. There are several clues investors can use to tell if a company is moving towards its goals.
Signs of the Endgame in Mind:
- List of accomplished goals
- Clear vision of future goals and exit strategy
- Plan for liquidity events for shareholder
The goal in investing is to make money. If shareholders are not making money, what is the point? If a company has no plan, it has no hope.
Making the Right Decisions
Understanding the characters that create value for mining companies is the first step, and the second step is assessing whether there is a viable business plan at hand.
While the risks are high, an effective plan is the first step towards reducing risks and providing shareholders with value.
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