Gold

The Historical Returns by Asset Class Over the Last Decade

Published

8 years ago

July 16, 2015

Jeff Desjardins

The Historical Returns by Asset Class Over the Last Decade

Recently, we’ve looked at different crisis events through history, and the returns by asset classes for each period of time.

Today’s chart is more general and breaks down performance over the last decade. It’s sorted by different baskets of assets such as bonds, commodities, gold, stocks, real estate, and emerging markets. Note that the chart uses indices that serve as a proxy for specific asset classes. For example, the Bloomberg Commodities Index acts as a broad representation of the performance of all commodities in different sectors. Scroll to the bottom of this post to see a legend that gives a description for each item on the chart.

There are a few lessons worth noting here. First, despite gold having a difficult last few years, it is actually the best performing asset class over the last decade, returning 10.0% annualized. Gold was also the #1 or #2 performer for five of seven years straight between 2005 and 2011. It just goes to show the intensity of bull and bear markets in the metal, and reinforces the fact that it takes multiple years to cool down that momentum before the next upswing may start.

Next, the importance of diversification is almost self-evident. Stocks in emerging markets, for example, just crush other assets in the good years. In the bad years, they are the worst performing assets on the chart. Imagine having a portfolio of just stocks in emerging markets, and you have a financial roller coaster that would make any investor queasy.

Lastly, outside of highly-leveraged Wall Street traders, most investors consider bonds to be quite boring. In the last decade, returns of the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index have ranged between -2.0% and 7.8%. Bonds are typically considered a relatively consistent and less volatile asset class, which help create a baseline for a portfolio. However, on this chart, bonds are all over the map because it is the other investments that are swinging with volatility. In the 2008 crisis, bonds were actually the best performing class with a 5.2% return.

To be fair, there is much speculation of a bond bubble lately, so bonds may not be boring for long.

Returns by asset class chart legend:

REITs: Real estate investment trusts, a proxy for property and real estate.
MSCI EmMkts: Index tracking 838 companies in 23 emerging markets countries.
MSCI EAFE: Measures performance in Europe, Australasia, and Far East. Essentially a barometer for equity performance outside of the US and Canada.
Russell 2000: Index tracking 2000 smallcap equities in the United States.
S&P 400: The S&P Midcap 400 is a benchmark for midcap companies in the United States.
S&P 500: The S&P 500, one of the most commonly followed indices, covers a diverse set of 500 large companies with common stock on the NYSE and NASDAQ exchanges in the US.
B’berg Commod: A broadly diversified commodity index tracking the futures of 22 different commodity markets in seven sectors.
Mkt Neut HFs: Market-neutral hedge funds seek to avoid forms of market risk by hedging.
Gold: The price of gold.
Barclays Agg Bond: Broad base index includes treasury securities, government agency bonds, mortgage-backed bonds, corporate bonds, and a small amount of foreign bonds traded in the US.

Original graphic by: Business Insider

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Central Banks

Charted: 30 Years of Central Bank Gold Demand

Globally, central banks bought a record 1,136 tonnes of gold in 2022. How has central bank gold demand changed over the last three decades?

Published

2 months ago

March 15, 2023

Govind Bhutada

30 Years of Central Bank Gold Demand

This was originally posted on Elements. Sign up to the free mailing list to get beautiful visualizations on natural resource megatrends in your email every week.

Did you know that nearly one-fifth of all the gold ever mined is held by central banks?

Besides investors and jewelry consumers, central banks are a major source of gold demand. In fact, in 2022, central banks snapped up gold at the fastest pace since 1967.

However, the record gold purchases of 2022 are in stark contrast to the 1990s and early 2000s, when central banks were net sellers of gold.

The above infographic uses data from the World Gold Council to show 30 years of central bank gold demand, highlighting how official attitudes toward gold have changed in the last 30 years.

Why Do Central Banks Buy Gold?

Gold plays an important role in the financial reserves of numerous nations. Here are three of the reasons why central banks hold gold:

Balancing foreign exchange reserves
Central banks have long held gold as part of their reserves to manage risk from currency holdings and to promote stability during economic turmoil.
Hedging against fiat currencies
Gold offers a hedge against the eroding purchasing power of currencies (mainly the U.S. dollar) due to inflation.
Diversifying portfolios
Gold has an inverse correlation with the U.S. dollar. When the dollar falls in value, gold prices tend to rise, protecting central banks from volatility.

The Switch from Selling to Buying

In the 1990s and early 2000s, central banks were net sellers of gold.

There were several reasons behind the selling, including good macroeconomic conditions and a downward trend in gold prices. Due to strong economic growth, gold’s safe-haven properties were less valuable, and low returns made it unattractive as an investment.

Central bank attitudes toward gold started changing following the 1997 Asian financial crisis and then later, the 2007–08 financial crisis. Since 2010, central banks have been net buyers of gold on an annual basis.

Here’s a look at the 10 largest official buyers of gold from the end of 1999 to end of 2021:

Rank	Country	Amount of Gold Bought (tonnes)	% of All Buying
#1	🇷🇺 Russia	1,888	28%
#2	🇨🇳 China	1,552	23%
#3	🇹🇷 Türkiye	541	8%
#4	🇮🇳 India	395	6%
#5	🇰🇿 Kazakhstan	345	5%
#6	🇺🇿 Uzbekistan	311	5%
#7	🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia	180	3%
#8	🇹🇭 Thailand	168	2%
#9	🇵🇱 Poland	128	2%
#10	🇲🇽 Mexico	115	2%
	Total	5,623	84%

Source: IMF

The top 10 official buyers of gold between end-1999 and end-2021 represent 84% of all the gold bought by central banks during this period.

Russia and China—arguably the United States’ top geopolitical rivals—have been the largest gold buyers over the last two decades. Russia, in particular, accelerated its gold purchases after being hit by Western sanctions following its annexation of Crimea in 2014.

Interestingly, the majority of nations on the above list are emerging economies. These countries have likely been stockpiling gold to hedge against financial and geopolitical risks affecting currencies, primarily the U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, European nations including Switzerland, France, Netherlands, and the UK were the largest sellers of gold between 1999 and 2021, under the Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) framework.

Which Central Banks Bought Gold in 2022?

In 2022, central banks bought a record 1,136 tonnes of gold, worth around $70 billion.

Country	2022 Gold Purchases (tonnes)	% of Total
🇹🇷 Türkiye	148	13%
🇨🇳 China	62	5%
🇪🇬 Egypt	47	4%
🇶🇦 Qatar	33	3%
🇮🇶 Iraq	34	3%
🇮🇳 India	33	3%
🇦🇪 UAE	25	2%
🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan	6	1%
🇹🇯 Tajikistan	4	0.4%
🇪🇨 Ecuador	3	0.3%
🌍 Unreported	741	65%
Total	1,136	100%

Türkiye, experiencing 86% year-over-year inflation as of October 2022, was the largest buyer, adding 148 tonnes to its reserves. China continued its gold-buying spree with 62 tonnes added in the months of November and December, amid rising geopolitical tensions with the United States.

Overall, emerging markets continued the trend that started in the 2000s, accounting for the bulk of gold purchases. Meanwhile, a significant two-thirds, or 741 tonnes of official gold purchases were unreported in 2022.

According to analysts, unreported gold purchases are likely to have come from countries like China and Russia, who are looking to de-dollarize global trade to circumvent Western sanctions.