Datastream
A Historical Divide: A 160-Year View of the Gold-Oil Ratio
The Briefing
- The divergence had gold trading at nearly 91 times oil in April.
- The price relationship between gold and oil is at levels not witnessed in 160 years.
A 160 Year View of the Gold-Oil Ratio
2020 has ushered in a new era of prices for two historically significant assets—gold and oil.
The market has driven the pair in polar opposite directions breaking historical patterns. This year, gold brushed above $2,000 an ounce, while oil futures even went temporarily negative in the spring. The gold-oil ratio tells us how many barrels of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) are needed to buy an ounce of gold, serving as a price-based indicator of the relative value of these two important assets.
Historically, the ratio has averaged between 10:1 and 30:1, This year it brushed above 90:1.
Here’s a look at the price of gold and oil over the last 6 months:
Month | Gold-Oil Ratio | Gold $ per Oz | Oil $ per Barrel (WTI) |
---|---|---|---|
April 2020 | 91.12 | $1,716.75 | $18.84 |
May 2020 | 48.62 | $1,725.65 | $35.49 |
June 2020 | 45.09 | $1,770.70 | $39.27 |
July 2020 | 48.96 | $1,971.68 | $40.27 |
August 2020 | 46.25 | $1,970.50 | $42.61 |
September 2020 | 47.09 | $1,893.90 | $40.22 |
October 2020 | 52.53 | $1,879.90 | $35.79 |
The Gold Story
Traditional investing mantra tells us gold acts as an alternative investment, a haven if you will, that appreciates in price during tumultuous economic and financial times.
Its limited quantity and physical storage properties serve as a hedge to much of modern finance that is increasingly digital.
The COVID-19 pandemic, a subsequent slowdown in economic activity, and the debt-driven stimulus packages by governments globally are all factors in the recent gold rally.
The Oil Story
At the other end are the oil markets, which face both long and short-term headwinds. Long-term demand for oil has dwindled gradually as societies buff up their alternative and green energy initiatives.
Shrinking activity during the pandemic was the short-term shock. Combined, the outcomes include oil futures going negative in spring, Chevron reporting a net income loss of $8.3 billion in the second quarter, and Exxon’s dumping from The Dow.
As markets adapt to the volatile nature of 2020, only time will tell what the future holds for the gold-oil ratio.
Where does this data come from?
- Source: Goehring & Rozencwajg: Top Reasons to Consider Oil-Related Equities report and MacroTrends
- Notes: Data is as of October 2020.
Economy
Charted: Public Trust in the Federal Reserve
Public trust in the Federal Reserve chair has hit its lowest point in 20 years. Get the details in this infographic.

The Briefing
- Gallup conducts an annual poll to gauge the U.S. public’s trust in the Federal Reserve
- After rising during the COVID-19 pandemic, public trust has fallen to a 20-year low
Charted: Public Trust in the Federal Reserve
Each year, Gallup conducts a survey of American adults on various economic topics, including the country’s central bank, the Federal Reserve.
More specifically, respondents are asked how much confidence they have in the current Fed chairman to do or recommend the right thing for the U.S. economy. We’ve visualized these results from 2001 to 2023 to see how confidence levels have changed over time.
Methodology and Results
The data used in this infographic is also listed in the table below. Percentages reflect the share of respondents that have either a “great deal” or “fair amount” of confidence.
Year | Fed chair | % Great deal or Fair amount |
---|---|---|
2023 | Jerome Powell | 36% |
2022 | Jerome Powell | 43% |
2021 | Jerome Powell | 55% |
2020 | Jerome Powell | 58% |
2019 | Jerome Powell | 50% |
2018 | Jerome Powell | 45% |
2017 | Janet Yellen | 45% |
2016 | Janet Yellen | 38% |
2015 | Janet Yellen | 42% |
2014 | Janet Yellen | 37% |
2013 | Ben Bernanke | 42% |
2012 | Ben Bernanke | 39% |
2011 | Ben Bernanke | 41% |
2010 | Ben Bernanke | 44% |
2009 | Ben Bernanke | 49% |
2008 | Ben Bernanke | 47% |
2007 | Ben Bernanke | 50% |
2006 | Ben Bernanke | 41% |
2005 | Alan Greenspan | 56% |
2004 | Alan Greenspan | 61% |
2003 | Alan Greenspan | 65% |
2002 | Alan Greenspan | 69% |
2001 | Alan Greenspan | 74% |
Data for 2023 collected April 3-25, with this statement put to respondents: “Please tell me how much confidence you have [in the Fed chair] to recommend the right thing for the economy.”
We can see that trust in the Federal Reserve has fluctuated significantly in recent years.
For example, under Alan Greenspan, trust was initially high due to the relative stability of the economy. The burst of the dotcom bubble—which some attribute to Greenspan’s easy credit policies—resulted in a sharp decline.
On the flip side, public confidence spiked during the COVID-19 pandemic. This was likely due to Jerome Powell’s decisive actions to provide support to the U.S. economy throughout the crisis.
Measures implemented by the Fed include bringing interest rates to near zero, quantitative easing (buying government bonds with newly-printed money), and emergency lending programs to businesses.
Confidence Now on the Decline
After peaking at 58%, those with a “great deal” or “fair amount” of trust in the Fed chair have tumbled to 36%, the lowest number in 20 years.
This is likely due to Powell’s hard stance on fighting post-pandemic inflation, which has involved raising interest rates at an incredible speed. While these rate hikes may be necessary, they also have many adverse effects:
- Negative impact on the stock market
- Increases the burden for those with variable-rate debts
- Makes mortgages and home buying less affordable
Higher rates have also prompted many U.S. tech companies to shrink their workforces, and have been a factor in the regional banking crisis, including the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
Where does this data come from?
Source: Gallup (2023)
Data Notes: Results are based on telephone interviews conducted April 3-25, 2023, with a random sample of –1,013—adults, ages 18+, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on this sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. See source for details.
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