Datastream

A Historical Divide: A 160-Year View of the Gold-Oil Ratio

Published

2 days ago

November 5, 2020

Aran Ali

gold-oil ratio

The Briefing

The divergence had gold trading at nearly 91 times oil in April.
The price relationship between gold and oil is at levels not witnessed in 160 years.

A 160 Year View of the Gold-Oil Ratio

2020 has ushered in a new era of prices for two historically significant assets—gold and oil.

The market has driven the pair in polar opposite directions breaking historical patterns. This year, gold brushed above $2,000 an ounce, while oil futures even went temporarily negative in the spring. The gold-oil ratio tells us how many barrels of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) are needed to buy an ounce of gold, serving as a price-based indicator of the relative value of these two important assets.

Historically, the ratio has averaged between 10:1 and 30:1, This year it brushed above 90:1.

Here’s a look at the price of gold and oil over the last 6 months:

Month	Gold-Oil Ratio	Gold $ per Oz	Oil $ per Barrel (WTI)
April 2020	91.12	$1,716.75	$18.84
May 2020	48.62	$1,725.65	$35.49
June 2020	45.09	$1,770.70	$39.27
July 2020	48.96	$1,971.68	$40.27
August 2020	46.25	$1,970.50	$42.61
September 2020	47.09	$1,893.90	$40.22
October 2020	52.53	$1,879.90	$35.79

The Gold Story

Traditional investing mantra tells us gold acts as an alternative investment, a haven if you will, that appreciates in price during tumultuous economic and financial times.

Its limited quantity and physical storage properties serve as a hedge to much of modern finance that is increasingly digital.

The COVID-19 pandemic, a subsequent slowdown in economic activity, and the debt-driven stimulus packages by governments globally are all factors in the recent gold rally.

The Oil Story

At the other end are the oil markets, which face both long and short-term headwinds. Long-term demand for oil has dwindled gradually as societies buff up their alternative and green energy initiatives.

Shrinking activity during the pandemic was the short-term shock. Combined, the outcomes include oil futures going negative in spring, Chevron reporting a net income loss of $8.3 billion in the second quarter, and Exxon’s dumping from The Dow.

As markets adapt to the volatile nature of 2020, only time will tell what the future holds for the gold-oil ratio.

Where does this data come from?

Source: Goehring & Rozencwajg: Top Reasons to Consider Oil-Related Equities report and MacroTrends
Notes: Data is as of October 2020.

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Datastream

Ranked: The Top 10 Global Cities, by Ultra-Wealthy Population

Where do the world’s ultra-wealthy people live? Here are the top 10 cities, by number of ultra-high net worth individuals.

Published

2 days ago

November 5, 2020

Carmen Ang

The Briefing

An Ultra-High Net Worth (UHNW) individual is anyone with more than $30 million in net worth
In 2019, there were 290,720 UHNW people worldwide. Their combined wealth exceeded $35 trillion
That’s approximately $10 trillion more than America’s current GDP, controlled by a population that’s roughly the size of Pittsburgh

Where in the World Do the Ultra-Wealthy Live?

A significant portion of the world’s wealth is in the hands (or bank accounts, rather) of a small group of ultra-wealthy individuals.

And just like their wealth, these UHNW people are concentrated in a small, select number of cities across the globe.

But where, exactly, can you find these ultra-wealthy people? Using data from Wealth-X, here’s a look at the top 10 cities with the highest UHNW populations:

Rank	City	UNHW Population (2019)
1	New York	10,435
2	Hong Kong	9,950
3	Tokyo	7,800
4	Los Angeles	6,150
5	Paris	4,670
6	London	4,535
7	Chicago	3,890
8	San Francisco	3,410
9	Washington, DC	3,230
10	Dallas	3,165

It’s worth noting that six of the top 10 UHNW cities are in America. This may not be surprising, considering the U.S. is the world’s largest wealth market—it holds over 29% of the world’s wealth.

Where are the German and Chinese Cities?

Something else worth noting is the absence of German and Chinese cities, which is surprising given they both made the top 5 UHNW populations when it came to country rankings:

Rank	Country	UHNW Population (2019)
1	🇺🇸 United States	93,790
2	🇨🇳 China	27,755
3	🇯🇵 Japan	19,820
4	🇩🇪 Germany	15,960
5	🇨🇦 Canada	11,285

Why didn’t Germany or China make the cut? While these countries have strong economies overall, private wealth is more evenly dispersed across their urban centers compared to other countries.

On a final note, it’s important to mention that this data is from 2019, before the global pandemic. And since the UHNW populations haven’t been immune to the economic impact of COVID-19, it’ll be interesting to see which cities make the rankings next year, based on 2020 figures.

» Interested in global wealth and its distribution worldwide? Take a deep dive into global wealth with this article: Mapped: The World’s Ultra-Rich, by Country

Where does this data come from?

Source: Wealth-X World Ultra Wealth Report 2020
Note: Though this data is from the report released in October 2020, it is a snapshot of the global UHNWI population in 2019.

Datastream

Which Countries Have the Most Internet Users?

When it comes to internet users, some of the largest digital communities across the globe still hold massive amounts of untapped potential.

Published

3 days ago

November 3, 2020

Carmen Ang

The Briefing

While China and India have two of the largest digital markets worldwide, they also have a ton of untapped market potential
India has over 800 million people that aren’t connected to the internet, while China has almost 600 million unconnected citizens

Which Countries Have the Most Internet Users?

When it comes to internet users, some countries have more than others. But a country’s online population doesn’t necessarily reflect its overall connectivity.

To give some perspective, here’s a look at the top nine countries with the highest number of internet users, alongside their internet penetration rates (which is the number of internet users divided by a country’s overall population):

Country	Internet Users (2020 Q1)	Internet penetration
🇨🇳 China	854,000,000	59%
🇮🇳 India	560,000,000	41%
🇺🇸 United States	313,322,868	95%
🇮🇩 Indonesia	171,260,000	62%
🇧🇷 Brazil	149,057,635	70%
🇳🇬 Nigeria	126,078,999	61%
🇯🇵 Japan	118,626,672	94%
🇷🇺 Russia	116,353,942	79%
🇧🇩 Bangladesh	94,199,000	57%

Based on the table above and this data, it’s clear that some countries, while boasting a high number of internet users, have a long way to go before reaching full connectivity.

Take China, for instance—while the country has the highest number of internet users worldwide, it also has millions of unconnected citizens, making its overall internet penetration relatively low at 59%.

Similarly, India has a massive online community, yet its internet penetration sits at 41%. To give some context, the United States has a 95% internet penetration rate—clearly, the two largest online markets hold a ton of untapped potential compared to others across the globe.

Growth Throughout the Decades

Another way to identify emerging online markets is to look at a country’s internet growth over the years.

While internet adoption has seen an overall increase across the board, a few countries have seen astonishing growth—here’s a look at the top five countries with the largest increases this century:

Country	Internet Growth from 2000-2020
🇧🇩 Bangladesh	94,199 %
🇳🇬 Nigeria	63,000 %
🇻🇳 Vietnam	34,250 %
🇮🇷 Iran	27,040 %
🇮🇳 India	11,200 %

No, that isn’t a typo. Bangladesh has seen a 94,199% growth in internet users over the last two decades. And yet, despite this colossal increase, its internet penetration still sits at 57%.

It’ll be interesting to see how these figures change over the next few decades. What will the world’s digital landscape look like in 2050? We’ll have to wait and see.

Where does this data come from?

Source: Internet World Stats
Notes: To calculate internet penetration rate, we divided each country’s total number of internet users by their overall population