The Future of Cannabis: Five Things Investors Need To Know
The recreational cannabis industry is changing fast, and the last few years have been a blur for investors observing the space.
More people today believe that cannabis should be legal than ever before, and famed investors like Peter Thiel have already made giant bets on the future of recreational cannabis.
Here’s five facts you need to know on the fast-moving industry:
- Recreational cannabis is already legal in four states and D.C. It is also available for medical purposes in 20 other states, as well as Canada. Viridian Capital Advisors, which provides research to the cannabis sector, estimates between 6 to 13 states will legalize recreational usage by end of 2016.
- Legal cannabis was a $700 million industry in Colorado last year. In 2014, Colorado retailers sold $386 million of medical cannabis and $313 million for recreational purposes. The two segments of the market generated $63 million in tax revenue, with an additional $13 million collected in licenses and fees.
- Stocks in the sector have boomed over the last two years. The Viridian Cannabis Index, which covers 60 publicly traded cannabis companies in the United States and Canada, was up 77.5% in 2013, 38.4% in 2014, and 23.6% in 2015 Q1.
- Total legal cannabis sales have sailed in recent years With $1.6 billion in sales in 2013, it is expected to increase to $3.5 billion in 2018, which is good for an expected 17% compound annual growth rate.
- Nearly half of U.S. states and all of Canada now have access to medical cannabis. That includes 23 states (148.6 million people), 1 district (0.7 million people) and Canada (35.2 million people). That’s 52% of the entire population of the United States and Canada.
The landscape of the cannabis industry is quickly changing. More jurisdictions are turning to legalization of medical and recreational cannabis, and the growth story behind the industry is just beginning for investors.
Why Retail Cannabis Could Be the Next Big Investment Boom
Retail cannabis could flourish into a $47.3 billion industry by 2027. What makes this cannabis segment so enticing for investors and consumers alike?
Imagine being an investor in Microsoft at the time of the company’s IPO in 1986. Or better yet, buying Amazon shares while it was still just an aspiring online book store in the late 1990s.
Chances to be an early adopter in the next billion-dollar industry are far and few in between – but it’s exactly what is happening today with the nascent cannabis market. After close to a century of prohibition, cannabis is back in the limelight as legalization rolls across the U.S. and Canada.
Visualizing the Retail Boom
Today’s infographic from Choom Holdings Inc demonstrates the consumer interest in retail cannabis, and the challenges and opportunities that come with this potential.
Legal cannabis today is a lucrative modern market in the U.S. and Canada. In 2018, sales were $10.8 billion – and they are expected to grow to $47.3 billion by 2027.
Who’s driving this growth? A recent survey reveals that:
- 58% of U.S. cannabis consumers use it at least once a week
- 66% of these weekly users are millennials, aged 18 to 34
- 46% of cannabis consumers who also drink, prefer it over alcohol
- 74% of cannabis consumers who also drink, believe it to be safer than alcohol
With more people using cannabis frequently, the disruptive potential of retail cannabis becomes clear.
The Cannabis Supply Issue
Colorado, Washington, Nevada, and most recently California have been among the major U.S. states to legalize recreational cannabis in recent years.
Although cannabis sales across all states have soared, there’s one caveat to mention, which is clearly seen in the case of California. As the state began selling cannabis in stores on January 1st, it also simultaneously ran out of supply when the grey market came rushing up.
This trend of pent-up demand is clear across both mature and new markets – even Canada couldn’t escape the same supply crunch, subjecting customers to long lines and wait times on day one of legalization. For example, only one legal retail store was open in the entire province of British Columbia on October 17th.
It’s not surprising to see why cannabis is such a valuable retail product, though: dispensaries typically outsell Whole Foods and other similar retailers.
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(Source: Marijuana Business Daily)
The Value Play in Cannabis
Seizing an early adoption opportunity is a best-case scenario in the investing world.
Today, such an opportunity may come in the form of retail cannabis. The segment still faces specific hurdles, but these challenges have the potential to convert into golden opportunities as the market matures in North America:
1. Inherited demand
Legal retailers will reach new consumers as the grey market begins to come online.
2. Strong foundation
Retail cannabis is only legal in ten U.S. states, but it already shows strong promise.
3. Building bridges
Retail cannabis stores are just now opening in Canada, but licenses are hard to get.
Retail cannabis is a brave new world for consumers and investors alike – and early entrants to the industry with access to capital and a large retail footprint will likely lead the charge.
The Science Behind the $13 Billion Medical Cannabis Industry
A deep-dive into the science behind the medical cannabis industry can provide some investor insight into what makes it a multi-billion dollar market.
The Science Behind the Medical Cannabis Industry
There’s nothing quite like cannabis in the plant kingdom. Beneath its humble surface, over 750 unique compounds exist within – all of which have helped propel the cannabis industry into the multi-billion dollar market it is today.
Today’s infographic from The Green Organic Dutchman takes a deep dive into the cannabis components which contribute to its therapeutic potential, how it interacts with the human body, and the ways it can be consumed.
The Chemical Effects of Cannabis
While many people would be familiar with THC and CBD as the two major cannabinoids, there are a few lesser-known cannabinoids which also play important roles: Cannabichromene (CBC), Cannabigerol (CBG), Cannabinol (CBN), Tetrahydrocannbivarin (THCv), and Tetrahydrocannabinolic acid (THCa).
In different combinations, they work together with terpenes – aromatic oils that are present in most plants – to provide relief for a variety of ailments.
|Pain/ Sleep||CBD, THC||Cramps, Migraine|
|CBC, CBD, CBN, THC||Insomnia|
|CBC, CBD, CBN, THC, THCv||Pain|
|CBC, CBD, CBDa, CBG, CBN, THC, THCa||Arthritis, Inflammation|
|CBD, THC, THCa||Crohn’s disease|
|Mood/ Behavior||CBD, CBG||Anxiety|
|CBD, THC||ADD/ADHD, Stress|
|CBD, CBG, THC||Bipolar disorder, OCD, PTSD|
|CBC, CBD, CBG, CBN, THC||Depression|
|Neurological||CBC, CBD, CBG, CBN, THC, THCa||Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS)|
|CBC, CBD, CBG, THC, THCa||Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s|
|CBD, CBN, THC, THCa||Multiple Sclerosis|
|CBD, CBN, THCa, THCv||Epilepsy, Seizures|
|Other||CBC, CBD, CBDa, CBG, THC, THCa||Cancer|
When cannabinoids and terpenes interact, the human endocannabinoid system is already equipped to deal with the entourage effects that are created.
Modern-Day Medical Cannabis
It’s clear that many cultures embraced cannabis long before scientific research came into play. Its therapeutic properties were widely recorded and extolled around the world.
After decades of restricted access and stigma, the tide is turning back towards what our ancestors discovered long ago. Millions of patients rely on medical cannabis today, with Canada and Israel paving the way in cannabis research.
Medical cannabis has been legal nationwide since 2001, aiding scientists in studying its effects.
Funding: CAD$1.4 million (US$1.05 million) invested by the government towards research projects.
Since the 1990s, medical cannabis has been legal for patients of cancer, chronic pain, and PTSD.
Funding: 8 million shekels (US$2.16 million) annual government funding to support innovation.
Back in the day, typically only dried cannabis flower was used. However, consumption methods have evolved into three broad categories today: ingestion, inhalation, and application.
The dosage of cannabis consumed is easy to control using edibles or beverages, tinctures or sprays, and capsules.
The effects of cannabis are quickly felt through smoking, vaporizing, and/or dabbing concentrates.
Transdermal patches and topicals like balms offer localized relief through a controlled dose.
Each of these methods have their own pros and cons, but in the end, they all offer the medical cannabis patient with a wide variety to choose from. Some of these forms, such as topicals and edibles, even lend themselves to the rapidly growing consumer cannabis segment.
In the seventh part of this series, we’ll delve into the rise of retail that’s set to disrupt the cannabis industry.
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