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Consumer Price Inflation, by Type of Good or Service (2000-2022)

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Chart shows CPI price inflation since 2000

Consumer Price Inflation, by Type of Good or Service (2000-2022)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) provides a steady indication of how inflation is affecting the economy. This big picture number is useful for policymakers and professionals in the financial sector, but most people experience inflation at the cash register or checkout screen.

Since the start of the 21st century, U.S. consumers have seen a divergence of price movements across various categories. Nowhere is this better illustrated than on this chart concept thought up by AEI’s Mark J. Perry. It’s sometimes referred to as the “chart of the century” because it provides such a clear and impactful jump-off point to discuss a number of economic forces.

The punchline is that many consumer goods—particularly those that were easily outsourced—saw price drops, while key “non-tradable” categories saw massive increases. We’ll look at both situations in more detail below.

Race to the Top: Inflation in Healthcare and Education

Since the beginning of this century, two types of essential categories have been marching steadily upward in price: healthcare and education.

America has a well documented “medical inflation” issue. There are a number of reasons why costs in the healthcare sector keep rising, including rising labor costs, an aging population, better technology, and medical tourism. The pricing of pharmaceutical products and hospital services are also a major contributor to increases. As Barry Ritholtz has diplomatically stated, “market forces don’t work very well in this industry”.

Rising medical costs have serious consequences for the U.S. population. Recent data indicates that half of Americans now carry medical debt, with the majority owing $1,000 or more.

Also near the top of the chart are education-related categories. In the ’60s and ’70s, tuition roughly tracked with inflation, but that began to change in the mid-1980s. Since then, tuition costs have marched ever upward. Since 2000, tuition prices have increased by 178% and college textbooks have jumped 162%.

As usual, low income students are disproportionally impacted by rising tuition. Pell Grants now cover a much smaller portion of tuition than they used to, and the majority of states have cut funding to higher education in recent years.

Globalization: A Tale of Televisions and Toys

Even though essentials like education and heathcare have rocketed up, it’s not all bad news. Consumers have seen the price of some goods and services drop dramatically.

Flat screen televisions used to be a big ticket item. At the turn of the century, a flat screen TV would cost around 17% of the median income of the time ($42,148). In the early aughts though, prices began to fall quickly. Today, a new TV will cost less than 1% of the U.S. median income ($54,132).

Similarly, cellular services and software have gotten cheaper over the past two decades as well. Toys are another prime example. Not only are most toys manufactured overseas, the value proposition has changed as children have new digital options to entertain themselves with.

Over a long-term perspective, items like clothing and household furnishings have remained relatively flat in price, even after the most recent bout of inflation.

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Markets

Beyond Big Names: The Case for Small- and Mid-Cap Stocks

Small- and mid-cap stocks have historically outperformed large caps. What are the opportunities and risks to consider?

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A line chart showing the historical return performance of small-, mid-, and large-cap stocks.

 

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The following content is sponsored by New York Life Investments
An infographic comparing low-, mid-, and large-cap stocks, including an area graph showing historical returns, a bubble chart showing how much $100 would be worth over 35 years, a horizontal bar graph showing annualized volatility, and a line graph showing relative forward price-to-earnings ratios, that together show that mid-cap stocks present a compelling investment opportunity.

Beyond Big Names: The Case for Small- and Mid-Cap Stocks

Over the last 35 years, small- and mid-cap stocks have outperformed large caps, making them an attractive choice for investors.

According to data from Yahoo Finance, from February 1989 to February 2024, large-cap stocks returned +1,664% versus +2,062% for small caps and +3,176% for mid caps.  

This graphic, sponsored by New York Life Investments, explores their return potential along with the risks to consider.

Higher Historical Returns

If you made a $100 investment in baskets of small-, mid-, and large-cap stocks in February 1989, what would each grouping be worth today?

Small CapsMid CapsLarge Caps
Starting value (February 1989)$100$100$100
Ending value (February 2024)$2,162$3,276$1,764

Source: Yahoo Finance (2024). Small caps, mid caps, and large caps are represented by the S&P 600, S&P 400, and S&P 500 respectively.

Mid caps delivered the strongest performance since 1989, generating 86% more than large caps.

This superior historical track record is likely the result of the unique position mid-cap companies find themselves in. Mid-cap firms have generally successfully navigated early stage growth and are typically well-funded relative to small caps. And yet they are more dynamic and nimble than large-cap companies, allowing them to respond quicker to the market cycle.

Small caps also outperformed over this timeframe. They earned 23% more than large caps. 

Higher Volatility

However, higher historical returns of small- and mid-cap stocks came with increased risk. They both endured greater volatility than large caps. 

Small CapsMid CapsLarge Caps
Total Volatility18.9%17.4%14.8%

Source: Yahoo Finance (2024). Small caps, mid caps, and large caps are represented by the S&P 600, S&P 400, and S&P 500 respectively.

Small-cap companies are typically earlier in their life cycle and tend to have thinner financial cushions to withstand periods of loss relative to large caps. As a result, they are usually the most volatile group followed by mid caps. Large-cap companies, as more mature and established players, exhibit the most stability in their stock prices.

Investing in small caps and mid caps requires a higher risk tolerance to withstand their price swings. For investors with longer time horizons who are capable of enduring higher risk, current market pricing strengthens the case for stocks of smaller companies.

Attractive Valuations

Large-cap stocks have historically high valuations, with their forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) trading above their 10-year average, according to analysis conducted by FactSet.

Conversely, the forward P/E ratios of small- and mid-cap stocks seem to be presenting a compelling entry point. 

Small Caps/Large CapsMid Caps/Large Caps
Relative Forward P/E Ratios0.710.75
Discount29%25%

Source: Yardeni Research (2024). Small caps, mid caps, and large caps are represented by the S&P 600, S&P 400, and S&P 500 respectively.

Looking at both groups’ relative forward P/E ratios (small-cap P/E ratio divided by large-cap P/E ratio, and mid-cap P/E ratio divided by large-cap P/E ratio), small and mid caps are trading at their steepest discounts versus large caps since the early 2000s.

Discovering Small- and Mid-Cap Stocks

Growth-oriented investors looking to add equity exposure could consider incorporating small and mid caps into their portfolios.

With superior historical returns and relatively attractive valuations, small- and mid-cap stocks present a compelling opportunity for investors capable of tolerating greater volatility.

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