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What’s Happening with Subprime Auto Loans?

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Auto loans have shot past the $1 trillion mark in the United States and now make up a significant component of the overall consumer debt picture.

Subprime auto loans – which are riskier loans made to customers with poor credit – have helped to drive the market since the Great Recession. However, with auto loan delinquencies ticking up in recent months, investors have been searching for answers about the sector.

Are we in for some sort of subprime auto loan crisis, or is there another explanation for what is going on?

Subprime Auto Loans: a Shifting Market

The data and perspective in today’s infographic comes from consumer credit reporting agency Equifax, and it helps to explain what is potentially going on in today’s auto loans market.

What's Happening with Subprime Auto Loans?

Does the recent uptick in auto loan delinquencies represent the unhinging of the market, or is it just standard fare?

Auto Loan Segmentation

The auto loan market is surprisingly diverse, and it’s comprised of many different types of lenders.

Each lender has a unique set of criteria for their ideal customer. For example, banks want very little risk and typically only lend to customers with prime credit scores (620 or higher). Dealer finance companies, on the other hand, are willing to take on more risk in their portfolios, and usually key in on subprime customers.

In fact, there are six different types of lenders in the auto lending space:

  1. Banks: Depository institutions that loan money to third-parties
  2. Credit Unions: Member-owned financial cooperatives
  3. Captive Auto Finance: Financing arm of an auto brand (i.e. Ford Motor Credit Company, etc.)
  4. Dealer Finance Companies: Associated with a dealerships or dealer chains
  5. Monoline Finance Companies: Focus on auto loans through multiple dealers/platforms
  6. Independent Finance Companies: Offer auto loans and other loan types

Because they each approach the market differently, there is strong segmentation in the market. The following chart from Equifax shows a snapshot of loans made in Q1 of 2015 and their cumulative non-performance after 18 months on the books:

Non-performance of auto loans vs. credit score

However, let’s look at this again by plotting the median credit score for new loans originated in Q1 of 2006, 2009, 2012, and 2015.

Non-performance of auto loans vs. credit score, longer time series

After the financial crisis, banks tightened credit standards until performance improved. Monoline and dealer finance companies, on the other hand, continued to lend to high-risk borrowers – and it is these companies that are seeing non-performance rates shifting higher.

In other words, it is the market share and relative performance among lenders that are the change drivers for aggregate loan statistics.

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Technology

Which Companies Make Up the “Magnificent Seven” Stocks?

FAANG is dead… meet the ‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks that now make up over 25% of the S&P 500.

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This cropped chart highlights the Magnificent Seven stocks, a group of seven megacap stocks that replace the previous FAANG.

Which Companies Make Up the “Magnificent Seven” Stocks?

In 2013 CNBC analyst Jim Cramer popularized “FANG,” comprised of Facebook (now Meta), Amazon, Netflix, and Google (now Alphabet), as a shorthand for the best performing technology stocks on the market. Apple, added in 2017, made it FAANG.

However, over the last year a new moniker given by Bank of America analyst Michael Hartnett highlights the most valuable and popularly-owned companies on the American stock market: the “Magnificent Seven” stocks.

We visualize the Magnificent Seven’s market capitalization and 5-year stock performance as of November 2023 using data from Google Finance and CompaniesMarketCap.

The Magnificent Seven Stocks by Market Cap and 5-Year Return

The Magnificent Seven stocks are megacap companies focused and capitalizing on tech growth trends including AI, cloud computing, and cutting-edge hardware and software.

Four of the five FAANG stocks retain their place amongst the Magnificent Seven, with newcomers Nvidia, Tesla, and Microsoft joining the group. Following a poor 2022 performance and having more difficulty capitalizing on tech trends, Netflix is the sole FAANG company not included.

Here’s a look at the companies ranked by their market capitalization on November 6, 2023, alongside their 5-year stock performance:

RankCompanyMarket Cap5 Year Performance
1Apple$2.8 trillion+250%
2Microsoft$2.6 trillion+224%
3Alphabet$1.6 trillion+141%
4Amazon$1.4 trillion+63%
5Nvidia$1.1 trillion+783%
6Meta$811 billion+118%
7Tesla$690 billion+829%

The Magnificent Seven make up more than one-quarter of the S&P 500 and more than half of the Nasdaq 100.

Meanwhile, five of the seven are part of the rare trillion dollar club, with Nvidia being the most recent entry.

A common theme among the Magnificent Seven is their ability to collect vast amounts of customer data, create cutting-edge hardware and software, as well as harness the power of AI.

However, if Netflix gets back on track—recently announcing its new ad-supported membership tier has 15 million subscribers—we could soon see a “Magnificent Eight.”

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