Markets
The U.S. States Most Vulnerable to a Trade War
The U.S. States Most Vulnerable to a Trade War
Last year, nearly $4 trillion of U.S. economic productivity was the result of international trade.
However, with talk of a trade war heating up, there is a real possibility that the global trade landscape could shift dramatically over the coming months and years.
Any such shifts wouldn’t likely impact the country in a uniform and evenly distributed fashion – instead, any impending trade war would pose the largest direct risk to states that are dependent on buying and selling goods on international markets.
The States Most at Risk
Today’s visualization comes to us from HowMuch.net, and it shows every U.S. state and district organized by GDP size, as well as percentage of GDP resulting from international trade.
Here are the 10 states most reliant on international trade:
| Rank | State | GDP (2017) | Exports + Imports (2017) | Trade (% of GDP) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Michigan | $515 billion | $200 billion | 38.9% |
| #2 | Louisiana | $243 billion | $94 billion | 38.7% |
| #3 | Kentucky | $204 billion | $78 billion | 38.1% |
| #4 | Tennessee | $345 billion | $112 billion | 32.6% |
| #5 | South Carolina | $219 billion | $70 billion | 31.9% |
| #6 | Texas | $1,692 billion | $527 billion | 31.2% |
| #7 | Indiana | $360 billion | $92 billion | 25.7% |
| #8 | Washington | $503 billion | $127 billion | 25.3% |
| #9 | New Jersey | $589 billion | $147 billion | 25% |
| #10 | Illinois | $818 billion | $201 billion | 24.6% |
On a percentage basis, Michigan tops the list with 38.9% of the state’s GDP reliant on international trade.
The Lowest Risk States
On the flipside, here are the states or districts with less to lose in the event of a trade war.
| Rank | State (or District) | GDP (2017) | Exports + Imports (2017) | Trade (% of GDP) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #51 | District of Columbia | $132 billion | $2 billion | 1.5% |
| #50 | Wyoming | $41 billion | $2 billion | 5.0% |
| #49 | South Dakota | $49 billion | $3 billion | 5.1% |
| #48 | Hawaii | $88 billion | $5 billion | 5.4% |
| #47 | New Mexico | $98 billion | $6 billion | 6.0% |
| #46 | Oklahoma | $190 billion | $15 billion | 8.0% |
| #45 | Colorado | $341 billion | $28 billion | 8.1% |
| #44 | Virginia | $511 billion | $46 billion | 8.9% |
| #43 | Nebraska | $119 billion | $11 billion | 9.1% |
| #42 | Maine | $61 billion | $6 billion | 9.7% |
Washington, D.C. tops the list, with only 1.5% of its regional GDP tied to trade.
This makes sense since The District’s economy is mostly linked to the government, service, and tourism sectors. Nearby Virginia also has surprisingly little international trade, at just 8.9% of its economy.
Want to see more on international trade? See the numbers behind the world’s closest trade relationship in this infographic.
Economy
Economic Growth Forecasts for G7 and BRICS Countries in 2024
The IMF has released its economic growth forecasts for 2024. How do the G7 and BRICS countries compare?
G7 & BRICS Real GDP Growth Forecasts for 2024
The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) has released its real gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts for 2024, and while global growth is projected to stay steady at 3.2%, various major nations are seeing declining forecasts.
This chart visualizes the 2024 real GDP growth forecasts using data from the IMF’s 2024 World Economic Outlook for G7 and BRICS member nations along with Saudi Arabia, which is still considering an invitation to join the bloc.
Get the Key Insights of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook
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This visual is part of a special dispatch of the key takeaways exclusively for VC+ members.
Get the full dispatch of charts by signing up to VC+.
Mixed Economic Growth Prospects for Major Nations in 2024
Economic growth projections by the IMF for major nations are mixed, with the majority of G7 and BRICS countries forecasted to have slower growth in 2024 compared to 2023.
Only three BRICS-invited or member countries, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and South Africa, have higher projected real GDP growth rates in 2024 than last year.
| Group | Country | Real GDP Growth (2023) | Real GDP Growth (2024P) |
|---|---|---|---|
| G7 | 🇺🇸 U.S. | 2.5% | 2.7% |
| G7 | 🇨🇦 Canada | 1.1% | 1.2% |
| G7 | 🇯🇵 Japan | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| G7 | 🇫🇷 France | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| G7 | 🇮🇹 Italy | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| G7 | 🇬🇧 UK | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| G7 | 🇩🇪 Germany | -0.3% | 0.2% |
| BRICS | 🇮🇳 India | 7.8% | 6.8% |
| BRICS | 🇨🇳 China | 5.2% | 4.6% |
| BRICS | 🇦🇪 UAE | 3.4% | 3.5% |
| BRICS | 🇮🇷 Iran | 4.7% | 3.3% |
| BRICS | 🇷🇺 Russia | 3.6% | 3.2% |
| BRICS | 🇪🇬 Egypt | 3.8% | 3.0% |
| BRICS-invited | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | -0.8% | 2.6% |
| BRICS | 🇧🇷 Brazil | 2.9% | 2.2% |
| BRICS | 🇿🇦 South Africa | 0.6% | 0.9% |
| BRICS | 🇪🇹 Ethiopia | 7.2% | 6.2% |
| 🌍 World | 3.2% | 3.2% |
China and India are forecasted to maintain relatively high growth rates in 2024 at 4.6% and 6.8% respectively, but compared to the previous year, China is growing 0.6 percentage points slower while India is an entire percentage point slower.
On the other hand, four G7 nations are set to grow faster than last year, which includes Germany making its comeback from its negative real GDP growth of -0.3% in 2023.
Faster Growth for BRICS than G7 Nations
Despite mostly lower growth forecasts in 2024 compared to 2023, BRICS nations still have a significantly higher average growth forecast at 3.6% compared to the G7 average of 1%.
While the G7 countries’ combined GDP is around $15 trillion greater than the BRICS nations, with continued higher growth rates and the potential to add more members, BRICS looks likely to overtake the G7 in economic size within two decades.
BRICS Expansion Stutters Before October 2024 Summit
BRICS’ recent expansion has stuttered slightly, as Argentina’s newly-elected president Javier Milei declined its invitation and Saudi Arabia clarified that the country is still considering its invitation and has not joined BRICS yet.
Even with these initial growing pains, South Africa’s Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor told reporters in February that 34 different countries have submitted applications to join the growing BRICS bloc.
Any changes to the group are likely to be announced leading up to or at the 2024 BRICS summit which takes place October 22-24 in Kazan, Russia.
Get the Full Analysis of the IMF’s Outlook on VC+
This visual is part of an exclusive special dispatch for VC+ members which breaks down the key takeaways from the IMF’s 2024 World Economic Outlook.
For the full set of charts and analysis, sign up for VC+.
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