Connect with us

Markets

Visualizing the Coming Shift in Global Economic Power (2006-2036p)

Published

on

Visualizing the Coming Shift in Global Economic Power (2006-2036p)

Can I share this graphic?
Yes. Visualizations are free to share and post in their original form across the web—even for publishers. Please link back to this page and attribute Visual Capitalist.
When do I need a license?
Licenses are required for some commercial uses, translations, or layout modifications. You can even whitelabel our visualizations. Explore your options.
Interested in this piece?
Click here to license this visualization.

Visualizing the Shift in Global Economic Power

As the post-pandemic recovery chugs along, the global economy is set to see major changes in the coming decades. Most significantly, China is forecast to pass the United States to become the largest economy globally.

The world’s economic center has long been drifting from Europe and North America over to Asia. This global shift was kickstarted by lowered trade barriers and greater economic freedom, which attracted foreign direct investment (FDI). Another major driving factor was the improvements in infrastructure and communications, and a general increase in economic complexity in the region.

Our visualization uses data from the 13th edition of World Economic League Table 2022, a forecast published by the Center for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).

When Will China Become the Largest Economic Power?

China is expected to surpass the U.S. by the year 2030. A faster than expected recovery in the U.S. in 2021, and China’s struggles under the “Zero-COVID” policies have delayed the country taking the top spot by about two years.

China has maintained its positive GDP growth due to the stability provided by domestic demand. This has proven crucial in sustaining the country’s economic growth. China’s fiscal and economic policy had focused on this prior to the pandemic over fears of growing Western trade restrictions.

India is Primed for the #3 Spot

India is expected to become the third largest country in terms of GDP with $10.8 trillion projected in 2031.

Looking back, India had a GDP of just $949 billion in 2006. Fast forward to today and India’s GDP has more than tripled, reaching $3.1 trillion in 2022. Over the next 15 years, it’s expected to triple yet again. What is behind this impressive growth?

For starters, the country’s economy had a lot more room to improve than other nations. Demographics are also working in the country’s favor. While the median age in many mature economies is shooting up, India has a youthful workforce. In fact, India’s median age is a full 20 years lower than Japan, which is currently the third largest economy.

Over the last 60 years, the service industry has boomed to around 55% of India’s GDP. Telecommunications, software, and IT generate most of the revenue in this sector. IT alone produces 10% of the country’s GDP. India’s large tech-savvy, English-speaking workforce has proved attractive for international companies like Intel, Google, Meta, Microsoft, IBM, and many others, while the domestic startup scene continues to boom.

The Indian government is also pursuing “production-linked incentives” (i.e. subsidies) for multinational companies looking to diversify their production away from China. If these incentives prove successful, more of the world’s solar panels and smartphones will be produced within India’s borders.

How Will the Global Economy Look in 2031?

By the year 2031, there will be major changes in the global economic power rankings.

As we said before: China will have become the world’s largest economy in terms of GDP and India will be the world’s third largest economy. Let’s also take a look at the top 10 economies by 2031.

RankCountryRegionProjected GDP in 2031
(in Trillions of USD)
1🇨🇳 ChinaAsia$37.6
2🇺🇸 United StatesNorth America$35.4
3🇮🇳 IndiaAsia$6.8
4🇯🇵 JapanAsia$6.4
5🇩🇪 GermanyEurope$6.3
6🇬🇧 United KingdomEurope$4.6
7🇫🇷 FranceEurope$4.2
8🇧🇷 BrazilSouth America$3.1
9🇨🇦 CanadaNorth America$3.0
10🇮🇹 ItalyEurope$3.0

Out of the top five economies, three are located in Asia: China, India, and Japan⁠—a clear demonstration of how economic power is shifting towards large population centers in Asia.

Europe will have four countries in the top 10: Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and Italy. From South America, only Brazil appears in the top 10.

Under these projections, Russia sits outside the top 10 in 2031. Of course, it remains to be seen how crushing sanctions and global isolation will affect the economic trajectory of the country.

Now, the big question. Is it inevitable that China takes the top spot in the global economy as predicted by this forecast? The truth is that nothing is guaranteed. Other projections have modeled reasonable alternative scenarios for China’s economy. A debt crisis, international isolation, or a shrinking population could keep China’s economy in second place for longer than expected.

Click for Comments

Markets

Swiss Watches: Market Share by Brand in 2023

In this graphic we rank the top Swiss watch brands, based on their estimated 2023 market share.

Published

on

Graphic ranking the top Swiss watch brands based on their estimated 2023 market share.

Swiss Watches: Market Share by Brand in 2023

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Swiss watches are renowned for their precision, craftsmanship, and quality. In this visualization, we rank the top Swiss watch brands based on their estimated 2023 market share, which comes from data provided by LuxeConsult and Morgan Stanley.

Rolex Dominates the Swiss Watch Market

Sales of Rolex watches are believed to have surpassed 10 billion Swiss francs ($11.2 billion) for the first time in 2023, significantly outpacing rivals like Cartier CHF 3.1 billion ($3.5 billion) and Omega CHF 2.6 billion ($2.9 billion).

Additionally, Rolex has strengthened its dominant position in the market, capturing a remarkable 30.3% retail market share.

BrandMarket Share (%)
Rolex30.3
Cartier7.5
Omega7.5
Patek Philippe5.6
Audemars Piguet4.9
Longines3.4
Richard Mille3.1
Vacheron Constantin2.7
Tissot2.5
Breitling2.4
IWC1.9
Hublot1.9
Jaeger-LeCoultre1.7
TAG Heur1.7
Other22.9

In 2023, the Swiss watch industry achieved record sales totaling CHF 26.7 billion ($30 billion). The “Big Four” watch brands—Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, and Richard Mille—achieved a combined 43.9% market share last year, compared to a pre-Covid 2019 market share of 36.9%.

Also noteworthy is that Vacheron Constantin joined the billionaires’ club as the 8th brand to surpass CHF 1 billion in sales, reaching CHF 1.097 billion ($1.23 billion).

In conclusion, premium watches priced over CHF 25,000 ($28,000) drove 69% of the market’s growth in 2023, and constituted 44% of the total value of Swiss watch exports. Despite this significant value contribution, this segment represents only 2.5% of the total volume in terms of units sold.

See Related Infographics

If you enjoyed this content, check out The World’s Biggest Fashion Companies by Market Cap, or Ranked: Gen Z’s Favorite Brands in 2023.

Continue Reading
MSCI Climate Metrics Paper - A simple toolkit for climate investing

Subscribe

Popular