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Shapes of Recovery: When Will the Global Economy Bounce Back?

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Shape of Economic Recovery

The Shape of Economic Recovery, According to CEOs

Is the glass half full, or half empty?

Whenever the economy is put through the ringer, levels of optimism and pessimism about its potential recovery can vary greatly. The current state mid-pandemic is no exception.

This graphic first details the various shapes that economic recovery can take, and what they mean. We then dive into which of the four scenarios are perceived the most likely to occur, based on predictions made by CEOs from around the world.

The ABCs of Economic Recovery

Economic recovery comes in four distinct shapes—L, U, W, and V. Here’s what each of these are characterized by, and how long they typically last.

  • L-shape
    This scenario exhibits a sharp decline in the economy, followed by a slow recovery period. It’s often punctuated by persistent unemployment, taking several years to recoup back to previous levels.
  • U-shape
    Also referred to as the “Nike Swoosh” recovery, in this scenario the economy stagnates for a few quarters and up to two years, before experiencing a relatively healthy rise back to its previous peak.
  • W-shape
    This scenario offers a tempting promise of recovery, dips back into a sharp decline, and then finally enters the full recovery period of up to two years. This is also known as a “double-dip recession“, similar to what was seen in the early 1980s.
  • V-shape
    In this best-case scenario, the sharp decline in the economy is quickly and immediately followed by a rapid recovery back to its previous peak in less than a year, bolstered especially by economic measures and strong consumer spending.

Another scenario not covered here is the Z-shape, defined by a boom after pent-up demand. However, it doesn’t quite make the cut for the present pandemic situation, as it’s considered even more optimistic than a V-shaped recovery.

Depending on who you ask, the sentiments about a post-pandemic recovery differ greatly. So which of these potential scenarios are we really dealing with?

How CEOs Think The Economy Could Recover

The think tank The Conference Board surveyed over 600 CEOs worldwide, to uncover how they feel about the likelihood of each recovery shape playing out in the near future.

The average CEO felt that economic recovery will follow a U-shaped trajectory (42%), eventually exhibiting a slow recovery coming out of Q3 of 2020—a moderately optimistic view.

However, geography seems to play a part in these CEO estimates of how rapidly things might revert back to “normal”. Over half of European CEOs (55%) project a U-shaped recovery, which is significantly higher than the global average. This could be because recent COVID-19 hotspots have mostly shifted to other areas outside of the continent, such as the U.S., India, and Brazil.

Here’s how responses vary by region:

RegionL-shapeU-shapeW-shapeV-shape
Global (N=606)32%42%16%11%
U.S. (N=103)26%42%23%9%
Europe (N=110)29%55%12%4%
China (N=122)25%43%11%21%
Japan (N=95)49%26%23%1%
Gulf Region (N=16)57%26%17%-

In the U.S. and Japan, 23% of CEOs expect a second contraction to occur, meaning that economic activity could undergo a W-shape recovery. Both countries have experienced quite the hit, but there are stark differences in their resultant unemployment rates—15% at its peak in the U.S., but a mere 2.6% in Japan.

In China, 21% of CEOs—or one in five—anticipate a quick, V-shaped recovery. This is the most optimistic outlook of any region, and with good reason. Although economic growth contracted by 6.8% in the first quarter, China has bounced back to a 3.2% growth rate in the second quarter.

Finally, Gulf Region CEOs feel the most pessimistic about potential economic recovery. In the face of an oil shock, 57% predict the economy will see an L-shaped recovery that could result in depression-style stagnation in years to come.

The Economic Recovery, According to Risk Analysts

At the end of the day, CEO opinions are all over the map on the potential shape of the economic recovery—and this variance likely stems from geography, cultural biases, and of course the status of their own individual countries and industries.

Despite this, portions of all cohorts saw some possibility of an extended and drawn-out recovery. Earlier in the year, risk analysts surveyed by the World Economic Forum had similar thoughts, projecting a prolonged recession as the top risk of the post-COVID fallout.

It remains to be seen whether this will ultimately indeed be the trajectory we’re in store for.

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The Most Popular TV Brands in the U.S.

Korean brands dominate the U.S. TV market.

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A stacked bar chart ranking the most popular TV brands in the U.S.

The Most Popular TV Brands in the U.S.

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Every year, over 40 million TVs are sold in the U.S., making the device a flagship technology in many American homes.

In this graphic, we illustrate the most popular TV brands in the U.S. based on a 2023 Statista survey of over 8,000 American adults. Respondents were asked, ‘What brand is your main TV?’

Korean Brands Dominate the U.S. TV Market

Samsung and LG combined account for 52% of the TV market share. Interestingly, the two firms have a partnership in place, with LG supplying OLED TV panels to Samsung since 2023.

TV BrandCountry% of Respondents
Samsung🇰🇷 South Korea33
LG🇰🇷 South Korea19
Vizio🇺🇸 U.S.11
Sony🇯🇵 Japan7
Hisense🇨🇳 China5
TCL🇨🇳 China5
Philips🇳🇱 Netherlands3
Insignia🇺🇸 U.S.2
Sanyo🇯🇵 Japan2
Toshiba🇯🇵 Japan2
Sharp🇯🇵 Japan1
Other or don't know--9

Vizio, a California-based company, holds the third position, but its TVs aren’t manufactured in the United States. Rather, they are produced by Taiwanese companies AmTran Technology and Foxconn, the latter being a major manufacturer of the iPhone.

Further down the ranking is Insignia, owned by U.S. retailer Best Buy. While it’s uncertain who produces Insignia TVs, some speculate they’re made by China’s Hisense.

Despite holding the largest market share, South Korea ranks behind Japan in terms of the number of companies among the top brands. Japan boasts four brands on our list, with Sony ranked 4th overall, capturing 7% of the responses.

Growing Market

The U.S. is witnessing a surge in demand for high-definition televisions, driven by consumers’ desire for a more immersive home viewing experience.

Globally, the U.S. leads in revenue generation, with the American TV market projected to generate $18.2 billion in revenue in 2024.

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