RiskGrade: A More Intuitive Way to Calculate Investment Risk
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RiskGrade: A More Intuitive Way to Calculate Investment Risk

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The following content is sponsored by MSCI.

A More Intuitive Way to Calculate Investment Risk

What crucial factors come into play when choosing investments?

At a high level, there’s two sides to the equation: return and risk. While potential profit is important, the volatility or risk of those profits also plays a critical role. In this graphic from MSCI we introduce the RiskGrade™ metric, a more intuitive way of calculating investment risk.

What is RiskGrade™?

One way of measuring investment risk is through volatility. Low risk investments have a smaller range of price movements relative to their historical average, meaning they have less volatility. On the flip side, high risk investments have a larger range of price movements. This means their returns—both gains and losses—can differ substantially from the historical average.

Traditionally, this volatility is measured through standard deviation. However, standard deviation can be difficult for investors to interpret as it has no intuitive reference point. Enter RiskGrade: a score-based measure of volatility that uses a transparent methodology.

  1. Volatility is calculated by measuring the change in investment price over time.
  2. A scaling factor is applied to standardize scores.

In the second step, 100 is equivalent to a 20% standard deviation, which is the average long-term volatility of global equities. Cash would have a RiskGrade of 0, whereas a technology IPO may have a RiskGrade that exceeds 1,000. It should be noted that RiskGrade only captures risk from a market price perspective, and does not consider inflation risk.

Investment Risk Over the Last Decade

To get a better idea of how this works, let’s take a look at the RiskGrade™ of select investments over the period from 2011-2020.

InvestmentRiskGrade
U.S. Corporate Fixed Income25
60/40 Blended Portfolio47
Global Equities71
U.S. Equities71
U.S. REITs84
Emerging Market Equities89
Small Cap Equities93
Long-term Average of Global Equities100
Apple Stock140
GameStop Stock259

Note: RiskGrades are based on gross total returns from December 31 2010 to December 31 2020. See the graphic for the specific indexes used.

U.S. corporate fixed income was the least risky of the group. A 60% global equity / 40% U.S. fixed income portfolio was a third less risky than a 100% global equity portfolio.

Meanwhile, U.S. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) were less risky than emerging market equities and small cap equities.

Of the above examples, GameStop stock had the highest investment risk, with a RiskGrade more than 2.5 times higher than the long-term average for global equities.

Of course, RiskGrades are not static and change over time depending on market conditions. GameStop, which saw heightened volatility as individual investors created a short squeeze, is a strong example of the fluidity of RiskGrades. Based on 5-year intervals, the stock had a RiskGrade of 212 from 2006-2010, and a RiskGrade of 749 from 2016-March 31, 2021—a jump of over 250%.

Monitoring Investment Risk

Investors may want to consider both risk and return when selecting their investments. In comparison to traditional risk metrics, RiskGrade provides a more intuitive way for investors to gauge their risk across individual investments, asset classes, and portfolios.

With clear apples-to-apples comparisons, more investors may be able to easily understand investment risk and adjust their portfolios to suit their personal risk tolerance and goals.

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Plant-based Alternatives: 5 Ways They Benefit the Planet

Conventional meat production is responsible for 14.5% of the world’s CO2 gases. Here we visualize the benefits of plant-based alternatives.

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Visualizing the benefits of plant-based alternatives.

Plant-based Alternatives: 5 Ways They Benefit the Planet

Over the past decade, people have become increasingly interested in plant-based diets. In fact, there has been a 600% increase in people turning vegan in the U.S. since 2014.

Because of this, the plant-based foods market could make up roughly 7.7% of the global protein market by 2030, with a value of over $162 billion, up from $29.4 billion in 2020.

Although initially promoted for their gambit of health benefits, recent studies have shown that switching to a plant-based diet has a list of environmental benefits too.

The following infographic by Billy Goat Brands (CSE: GOAT) (“GOAT”) explores the environmental impacts of conventional meat production and how plant-based alternatives can lessen this impact and be a viable dietary solution for the future.

Environmental Benefits of Plant-based Alternatives

Increased population growth has caused meat production to increase exponentially. The livestock sector is one of the most significant contributors to urgent environmental problems. Conventional meat production is responsible for 14.5% of the world’s greenhouse gases.

Water, land, and ocean conservation have become a major concern for livestock breeding and meat production. It also causes a loss of soil nutrients, leaving land unusable in the future.

Here are five ways in which the production of plant-based alternatives benefit the environment:

  1. Climate Change: The production of plant-based meats causes very low greenhouse gas emissions and can in fact reduce emissions caused by conventional meat production by 70%.
  2. Land Conservation: Switching to a plant-based diet could also reduce global agricultural land use from 4 to 1 billion hectares.
  3. Water Conservation: A plant-based diet can reduce water consumption by up to 50%, saving 14 trillion gallons of water annually.
  4. Cleaner Water: Creating plant-based alternatives does not require excessive spraying of chemicals and pesticides, reducing aquatic nutrient pollution.
  5. Ocean Conservation: Consumption of plant-based imitation fish can stop the practice of overfishing that has caused oceanic dead zones across the world.

Plant-based alternatives offer a solution to these problems. They produce minimal greenhouse gases and require a fraction of the cropland and water needed for conventional meat production.

Health Benefits of Consuming Plant-based Alternatives

Plant-based diets are considered to be naturally nutritious and healthy. For years, registered dietitians and food scientists have touted the perks of eating plants and cutting back on meat.

Here are some amazing benefits of choosing a plant-based diet:

Lower Your Blood Pressure

Several studies have shown that sticking with a plant-based diet can reduce blood pressure, reducing your risk of further health complications. A recent study also found that vegetarians had a 34% lower risk of developing hypertension than those who consume meat.

Prevent Type-2 Diabetes

Our diet and diseases like type 2 diabetes have had a long-standing link. Plant-based diets, especially when rich in high-quality plant foods, are associated with a substantially lower risk of developing type-2 diabetes by over 30%.

Provide Healthy Body BMI

Studies have shown that the mean BMI for vegans was 23.6, while for nonvegetarians, it was 28.8, which qualifies as overweight. The various fibers and antioxidants in plant-based foods reduce fatty lipids in the body and promote a healthy BMI.

Decrease Your Risk of Cancer

According to the American Institute for Cancer Research (AICR ), the best way to source cancer-protective nutrients, including fiber, vitamins, minerals, and phytochemicals, is to eat a diet rich in vegetables and fruit, grains, beans, nuts, seeds, and some animal foods.

Improve Brain Capacity

There is veritable proof that a plant-based diet may improve the cognitive functions of your body. In some rare cases, it is linked to enhancing impairments in Alzheimer’s patients and reducing the risk of dementia.

Most Popular Plant-based Alternatives

There are a variety of plant-based alternatives that are available for consumption in the market today. Meat and milk alternatives are the most popular types of current plant-based alternatives available. Many popular fast-food chains have now adopted using plant-based meats in their menus.

Similarly, in order to combat the extreme exploitation of fisheries worldwide, efforts are being made to create plant-based seafood alternatives for consumption.

Through brands like Sophie’s Kitchen, Billy Goat Brands (CSE: GOAT) gives people the opportunity to invest in companies that offer healthy and environmentally conscious plant-based alternatives for consumption.

Go to billygoatbrands.com to learn more about investing in a plant-based future today.

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Visualized: The Circular Economy 101

How does a circular economy work? In this infographic, we show the benefits of a circular economy, and the key factors driving its growth.

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Circular Economy

Visualized: The Circular Economy 101

The principles of a circular economy trace back as far as 3,000 years.

Archeological evidence shows that Romans recycled trash following the eruption of Mount Vesuvius in 79 AD. Roughly 200 years later, people recycled glass during the Byzantine Empire. Fast-forward to today and circular economy strategies are projected to generate trillions in economic output by 2030.

But how does the circular economy work? This infographic from MSCI provides a guide to circular economies—from circular business models to circular technologies.

No Time to Waste

First, let’s start at the root of the problem, our current consumption trends:

  • Raw Materials: Global extraction is projected to double by 2060.
  • Textiles: 85% of clothing and textiles are discarded.
  • Waste: Global waste is projected to rise 70% by 2050.
  • Water: 80% of global wastewater is untreated or reused before returning back to the ecosystem.

To change consumption patterns and reduce waste, consumer behaviors, business models, and policies will need to change. But the big question is how?

To answer this problem, the concept of a circular economy is gaining traction.

What Is a Circular Economy?

A circular economy is centered on the idea of resources being kept as long as possible within the economic system, where materials that have undergone an entire lifecycle, from production to end stage, are returned to the economic system as an input.

Above all else, a circular economy is based on sustainable life cycles.

Circular Economy Growth

In 2019, BlackRock launched an inaugural Circular Economy fund. Since then, it has attracted $2.1 billion in investment. A number of the world’s largest asset managers have followed suit.

Policy-driven agendas are also focused on the circular economy shift:

  • Paris Climate Agreement
  • UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 12, 11, 9, 13)
  • European Green Deal Circular Economy Action Plan
  • 2019 African Durban Declaration
  • China’s 5-Year Circular Economy Plan
  • Circular economy strategies across Latin American countries

Given the steep cost of linear economic models, governments are beginning to pay attention to the merits of a circular economy.

The Upside of a Circular Economy

Circular economy principles aligned with sustainability offer the following advantages:

  • Reducing GHG emissions: 9.3 billion tonnes of CO₂e could be prevented by 2050 if circular economy strategies are applied across the steel, aluminum, cement, food, and plastic sectors.
  • Preserving long-term biodiversity: ~50% decrease in harmful effects on farm-level biodiversity through applying circular strategies.
  • Improving ocean health & water quality: 80% reduction in plastics entering the ocean globally by using reclamation, recycling, and reduction strategies, among others.
  • Economic growth & job creation: $4.5 trillion global economic opportunity by 2030 through spurring innovation in waste reduction.

Importantly, circular strategies, technologies, and transition companies are looking beyond traditional economic models.

5 Business Models in a Circular Economy

From alternative energy to bio-based and recyclable materials, the most effective circular business models are ones that create obvious value.

Let’s consider five circular economy business models and where they can be applied in the supply chain. Additionally, some of the models can be adapted to any part of the supply chain.

Business ModelSupply Chain Example
1. Circular supplies/Circular designProduct design/R&D

Procurement/raw materials acquisition
2. Resource recovery
(Recycle, Waste as a resource)
Reverse logistics

Material & product manufacturing
3. Product life extension
(Remanufacture, Resell, Upgrade)
End-of-life

Sales & marketing

Product use
4. ShareProduct use

Material & product manufacturing
5. Product as a serviceLogistics

Product design/R&D

Today, circular models present opportunities in fashion, food systems, mining and metals, among others.

How are Circular Economy Indexes Created?

A circular economy theme is built on two key dimensions:

1. Smarter technologies: Providing circular technologies

  • Single-use plastics alternatives
  • Digital technologies that replace resource-intensive products

2. Resource efficient processes: Maximizing materials and minimizing impacts (e.g. emissions)

  • Improved package materials
  • Efficient processes that reduce land degradation and promote diversity

Then, MSCI identifies areas of innovation that support a circular model. Consider the following circular technologies, which are produced by companies that contribute to a circular economy theme “end-state” through their products and services.

7 Circular TechnologiesExample
1. Renewables & energy efficiency
Replacing oil-based plastic with compostable materials
2. Sharing economyPeer-to-peer accommodation
3. Future mobilityElectric vehicles
4. Internet economyOnline markets
5. Water sustainabilityWastewater treatment systems
6. Plastic sustainabilityCompanies using only one type of polymer for packaging
7. BiodiversityPhytotechnologies

It also looks at circular transitions, which are companies that enable the shift to a circular economy through their management of related issues.

3 Circular TransitionsExample
1. Natural resources managementDeforestation
2. Water resources managementSmart metering devices
3. Plastic transitionBiodegradable plastics

As a result MSCI has created a range of Circular Economy related indexes:

  • Natural Resources Stewardship
  • Sustainable Water Transition
  • Plastics Transition
  • Renewables & Energy Efficiency
  • Sharing Economy

It’s worth noting that what is measurable today will likely only expand, considering the evolving regulatory frameworks and thinking around a circular economy,

The Value of a Circular Economy

Through looking at circular economy innovation, we yield three important insights:

  • Competitive earnings
  • New economic models
  • Sustainable solutions

For a growing number of investors, companies, and researchers, a circular economy provides a wide scope of opportunities ranging from single-use plastics alternatives to water sustainability.

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