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Everything You Need to Know About Recessions

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what to know about recessions

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Everything You Need to Know About Recessions

Just like in life, markets go through peaks and valleys. The good news for investors is that often the peaks ascend to far greater heights than the depths of the valleys.

Today’s post helps to put recessions into perspective. It draws information from Capital Group to break down the frequency of economic expansions and recessions in modern U.S. history, while also showing their typical impact.

What is a Recession?

Not all recessions are the same. Some can last long while others are short. Some create lasting effects, while others are quickly forgotten. Some cripple entire economies, while others are much more targeted, impacting specific sectors within the economy.

Recession is when your neighbor loses their job. Depression is when you lose yours.

– Harry Truman

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, a recession can be described as a significant decline in economic activity over an extended period of time, typically several months.

In the average recession, gross domestic product (GDP) is not the only thing shrinking—incomes, employment, industrial production, and retail sales tend to shrink as well. Economists generally consider two consecutive quarters of declining GDP as a recession.

The general economic model of a recession is that when unemployment rises, consumers are more likely to save than spend. This places pressure on businesses that rely on consumers’ income. As a result, company earnings and stock prices decline, which can fuel a negative cycle of economic decline and negative expectations of returns.

recession expansion cycle

During economic recoveries and expansions, the opposite occurs. Rising employment encourages consumer spending, which bolsters corporate profits and stock market returns.

How Long Do Recessions Last?

Recessions generally do not last very long. According to Capital Group’s analysis of 10 cycles since 1950, the average length of a recession is 11 months, although they have ranged from eight to 18 months over the period of analysis.

Jobs losses and business closures are dramatic in the short term, though equity investments in the stock market have generally fared better. Throughout the history of economics, recessions have been relatively small blips.

Average ExpansionAverage Recession
Months6711
GDP Growth24.3%-1.8%
S&P 500 Returns117%3%
Net Jobs Added12M-1.9M

Over the last 65 years, the U.S. has been in an official recession for less than 15% of all months. In addition, the overall economic impact of most recessions is relatively small. The average expansion increased GDP by 24%, whereas the average recession decreased GDP by less than 2%.

In fact, equity returns can be positive throughout a contraction, since some of the strongest stock rallies have occurred in the later stages of a recession.

Buying the Dip: Recession Indicators

Whether you are an investor or not, it would be wise to pay attention to potential recessions and prepare accordingly.

There are several indicators that people can watch to anticipate a potential recession, which might give them an edge in preparing their portfolios:

Recession IndicatorWhy is it Important?Average Length Until Recession
Inverted Yield CurveOften a sign the U.S. Fed has hiked short-term rates too high or investors are seeking long-term bonds over riskier assets.15.7 months
Corporate ProfitsWhen profits decline, businesses cut investment, employment, and wages.26.2 months
UnemploymentWhen unemployment rises, consumers cut back on spending.6.1 months
Housing StartsWhen the economic outlook is poor, home builders often cut back on housing projects.5.3 months
Leading Economic Index
Aggregation of multiple leading economic indicators. gives a broader look at the U.S. economy.
4.1 months

This is not a magic rubric for anticipating every economic downturn, but it helps individuals see the weather patterns on the horizon. Whether and where the storm hits is another question.

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Markets

Visualizing the Major Product Exported by Each U.S. State

Canada is the top destination for products from 21 states.

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Graphic showing product categories each state exports worldwide.

Visualizing the Major Product Exported by Each State

The U.S. is the second biggest exporter in the world, accounting for over 8% of global exports.

In this graphic by NeoMam Studios, we analyze the primary product exported by each state, as well as its main destination, utilizing data from the U.S. International Trade Administration.

Canada: The Primary Destination

Canada serves as the largest export market for most of the Midwest, while Mexico holds the top spot as the export destination for much of the Southwest and Southeast. Additionally, Canada stands out as the primary importer of products from 21 states, with China and Germany trailing behind as notable destinations.

StateDestinationTop Product ExportedValue (USD)
Alabama🇩🇪 GermanyTransportation equip.$3,649M
Alaska🇨🇦 CanadaMinerals$576M
Arizona🇲🇽 MexicoMinerals$1,760M
Arkansas🇨🇦 CanadaProcessed Foods$246M
California🇨🇦 CanadaComputer & Electronics$5,093M
Colorado🇰🇷 South KoreaProcessed Foods$545M
Connecticut🇩🇪 GermanyTransportation equip.$1,581M
Delaware🇰🇷 South KoreaAppliances$419M
Florida🇬🇧 UKChemicals$2,447M
Georgia🇨🇦 CanadaMachinery$1,629M
Hawaii🇭🇰 Hong KongTransportation equip.$68M
Idaho🇹🇼 TaiwanComputer & Electronics$394M
Illinois🇨🇦 CanadaTransportation equip.$4,517M
Indiana🇨🇦 CanadaTransportation equip.$6,561M
Iowa🇨🇦 CanadaMachinery$1,598M
Kansas🇲🇽 MexicoAgricultural$1,543M
Kentucky🇨🇦 CanadaTransportation equip.$3,630M
Louisiana🇨🇳 ChinaAgricultural$11,300M
Maine🇨🇦 CanadaOil & Gas$504M
Maryland🇫🇷 FranceTransportation equip.$949M
Massachusetts🇨🇳 ChinaMachinery$1,298M
Michigan🇨🇳 ChinaTransportation equip.$15,361M
Minnesota🇨🇦 CanadaPetroleum & Coal$2,787M
Mississippi🇵🇦 PanamaPetroleum & Coal$2,106M
Missouri🇨🇦 CanadaTransportation equip.$2,390M
Montana🇨🇦 CanadaMinerals$153M
Nebraska🇲🇽 MexicoAgricultural$933M
Nevada🇨🇭 SwitzerlandMetal$1,399M
New Hampshire🇩🇪 GermanyTransportation equip.$695M
New Jersey🇨🇦 CanadaChemicals$2,734M
New Mexico🇲🇽 MexicoComputer & Electronics$2,014M
New York🇨🇭 SwitzerlandMetal $18,262M
North Carolina🇨🇳 ChinaChemicals$4,312M
North Dakota🇨🇦 CanadaPetroleum & Coal$1,441M
Ohio🇨🇦 CanadaTransportation equip.$5,990M
Oklahoma🇨🇦 CanadaMachinery$418M
Oregon🇨🇳 ChinaComputer & Electronics$6,261M
Pennsylvania🇨🇦 CanadaChemicals$2,280M
Rhode Island🇮🇹 ItalyWaste & Scrap$321M
South Carolina🇩🇪 GermanyTransportation equip.$3,774M
South Dakota🇨🇦 CanadaProcessed Foods$297M
Tennessee🇨🇦 CanadaTransportation equip.$2,017M
Texas🇲🇽 MexicoPetroleum & Coal $33,627M
Utah🇬🇧 UKMetal $6,805M
Vermont🇹🇼 TaiwanComputer & Electronics$447M
Virginia🇮🇳 IndiaMinerals$1,799M
Washington🇨🇳 ChinaAgricultural $10,553M
West Virginia🇮🇳 IndiaMinerals$657M
Wisconsin🇨🇦 CanadaMachinery$1,802M
Wyoming🇮🇩 IndonesiaChemicals$200M

When it comes to the types of exports, transportation equipment emerges as the primary source for the majority of states, with minerals and ores, chemicals, and computer and electronics following closely behind.

For instance, North Carolina ships $4.3 billion worth of chemicals to China, marking one of the longest-distance trade flows among states. Meanwhile, Florida boasts one of the most diverse export portfolios, engaging in trade with Europe, South America, and the Caribbean.

Louisiana heavily relies on the export of agricultural products to China, which contributes significantly to its total GDP. Similarly, Michigan’s transportation equipment exports to Canada constitute a noteworthy portion of the state’s GDP.

In Oregon, exports of semiconductors and other computer parts to China, driven by companies like Intel and Micron, play a crucial role in the state’s economy. Meanwhile, Utah predominantly exports primary metal manufacturing goods to the United Kingdom.

The biggest exporter in the country, Texas, sees a significant portion of its GDP attributed to exports to Mexico, further underlining the state’s economic ties with its southern neighbor.

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