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Ranked: The 20 Countries With the Fastest Declining Populations

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Population decline by country

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Visualizing Population Decline by Country

Since the mid-1900s, the global population has followed a steep upwards trajectory.

While much of this growth has been concentrated in China and India, researchers expect the next wave of growth to occur in Africa. As of 2019, for example, the average woman in Niger is having over six children in her lifetime.

At the opposite end of this spectrum are a number of countries that appear to be shrinking from a population perspective. To shed some light on this somewhat surprising trend, we’ve visualized the top 20 countries by population decline.

The Top 20

The following table ranks countries by their rate of population decline, based on projected rate of change between 2020 and 2050 and using data from the United Nations.

RankCountryDecline 2020-2050
1🇧🇬 Bulgaria22.5%
2🇱🇹 Lithuania22.1%
3🇱🇻 Latvia21.6%
4🇺🇦 Ukraine19.5%
5🇷🇸 Serbia18.9%
6🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina18.2%
7🇭🇷 Croatia18.0%
8🇲🇩 Moldova16.7%
9🇯🇵 Japan16.3%
10🇦🇱 Albania15.8%
11🇷🇴 Romania15.5%
12🇬🇷 Greece13.4%
13🇪🇪 Estonia12.7%
14🇭🇺 Hungary12.3%
15🇵🇱 Poland12.0%
16🇬🇪 Georgia11.8%
17🇵🇹 Portugal10.9%
18🇲🇰 North Macedonia10.9%
19🇨🇺 Cuba10.3%
20🇮🇹 Italy10.1%

Many of these countries are located in or near Eastern Europe, for reasons we’ll discuss below.

The first issue is birth rates, which according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), have fallen since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Across the region, the average number of children per woman fell from 2.1 in 1988 to 1.2 by 1998.

Birth rates have recovered slightly since then, but are not enough to offset deaths and emigration, which refers to citizens leaving their country to live elsewhere.

Eastern Europe saw several waves of emigration following the European Union’s (EU) border expansions in 2004 and 2007. The PIIE reports that by 2016, 6.3 million Eastern Europeans resided in other EU states.

The Outliers

There are two geographical outliers in this dataset which sit on either side of Europe.

Japan

The first is Japan, where birth rates have fallen continuously since 1970. It wasn’t until 2010, however, that the country’s overall population began to shrink.

By the numbers, the situation appears dire. In 2021, 811,604 babies were born in Japan, while 1.44 million people died. As a result of its low birth rates, the island nation also has the world’s highest average age at 49 years old.

The Japanese government has introduced various social programs to make having kids more appealing, but these don’t appear to be getting to the root of the problem. For deeper insight into Japan’s low birthrates, it’s worth reading this article by The Atlantic.

Cuba

The second country is Cuba, and it’s the only one not located within the Eastern Hemisphere. Cuba’s fertility rate of 1.7 children per woman is the lowest in the Latin American region. It can be compared to countries like Mexico (2.2), Paraguay (2.5), and Guatemala (3.0).

Cuba’s immigration is also incredibly low compared to its neighboring countries. According to the International Organization for Migration, immigrants account for just 0.1% of its total population.

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Maps

Mapped: Which Countries Recognize Israel or Palestine, or Both?

In this visualization, we look at how international recognition of Israel and Palestine breaks down among the 193 UN member states.

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Map showing the recognition of Israel and Palestine by the 193 UN member countries.

Which Countries Recognize Israel or Palestine, or Both?

The modern-day conflict between Israel and Palestine emerged from the British Mandate for Palestine, which administered the former Ottoman Empire territory after World War I. But even after 75 years—and declarations of independence from each side—universal recognition eludes them.

In this visualization, we look at how Israel and Palestine recognition breaks down among the 193 UN member states as of November 14, 2023, using Wikpedia data for each state.

This post is a companion piece to separate maps showing the recognition of Israel and of Palestine by country.

A Declaration of Independence

The Jewish People’s Council declared the foundation of the State of Israel on May 14, 1948 (the same day that the last British forces left Haifa) on the basis of the 1947 UN Partition Plan, which divided the Mandate territories between Jewish and Arab populations.

U.S. President Truman granted de-facto recognition 11 minutes after the Israeli declaration. Not to be outdone by their Cold War adversary, the U.S.S.R. followed suit three days later with de-jure recognition and was joined by Warsaw Pact allies Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia, and Poland.

By the end of 1948, 21 countries recognized Israel.

A Second Declaration of Independence

A declaration of independence for the State of Palestine, comprising the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem, didn’t happen until 40 years later.

In the midst of the First Intifada, a five-year-long Palestinian uprising that began in 1987, the Palestine Liberation Organization proclaimed the new state in the city of Algiers on November 15, 1988.

A dozen countries, including 10 members of the Arab League along with Malaysia and Yemen, immediately recognized the new state. The Soviet Union, the Eastern Bloc, and most of the Muslim world also joined in recognizing the State of Palestine.

Recognition of Israel and Palestine by Country

As of November 2023, 163 UN member states have recognized Israel, while 138 have recognized Palestine.

UN Member StateRecognize Israel 🇮🇱Recognize Palestine 🇵🇸
🇦🇫AfghanistanNoYes
🇦🇱AlbaniaYesYes
🇩🇿AlgeriaNoYes
🇦🇩AndorraYesNo
🇦🇴AngolaYesYes
🇦🇬Antigua and BarbudaYesYes
🇦🇷ArgentinaYesYes
🇦🇲ArmeniaYesNo
🇦🇺AustraliaYesNo
🇦🇹AustriaYesNo
🇦🇿AzerbaijanYesYes
🇧🇸BahamasYesNo
🇧🇭BahrainYesYes
🇧🇩BangladeshNoYes
🇧🇧BarbadosYesNo
🇧🇾BelarusYesYes
🇧🇪BelgiumYesNo
🇧🇿BelizeNoYes
🇧🇯BeninYesYes
🇧🇹BhutanYesYes
🇧🇴BoliviaNoYes
🇧🇦Bosnia and HerzegovinaYesYes
🇧🇼BotswanaYesYes
🇧🇷BrazilYesYes
🇧🇳BruneiNoYes
🇧🇬BulgariaYesYes
🇧🇫Burkina FasoYesYes
🇧🇮BurundiYesYes
🇰🇭CambodiaYesYes
🇨🇲CameroonYesNo
🇨🇦CanadaYesNo
🇨🇻Cape VerdeYesYes
🇨🇫Central African RepublicYesYes
🇹🇩ChadYesYes
🇨🇱ChileYesYes
🇨🇳ChinaYesYes
🇨🇴ColombiaYesYes
🇰🇲ComorosNoYes
🇨🇷Costa RicaYesYes
🇨🇮Côte d'IvoireYesYes
🇭🇷CroatiaYesNo
🇨🇺CubaNoYes
🇨🇾CyprusYesYes
🇨🇿CzechiaYesYes
🇨🇩Democratic Republic of the CongoYesYes
🇩🇰DenmarkYesNo
🇩🇯DjiboutiNoYes
🇩🇲DominicaYesYes
🇩🇴Dominican RepublicYesYes
🇪🇨EcuadorYesYes
🇪🇬EgyptYesYes
🇸🇻El SalvadorYesYes
🇬🇶Equatorial GuineaYesYes
🇪🇷EritreaYesNo
🇪🇪EstoniaYesNo
🇸🇿EswatiniYesYes
🇪🇹EthiopiaYesYes
🇫🇲Federated States of MicronesiaYesNo
🇫🇯FijiYesNo
🇫🇮FinlandYesNo
🇫🇷FranceYesNo
🇬🇦GabonYesYes
🇬🇪GeorgiaYesYes
🇩🇪GermanyYesNo
🇬🇭GhanaYesYes
🇬🇷GreeceYesNo
🇬🇩GrenadaYesYes
🇬🇹GuatemalaYesYes
🇬🇳GuineaYesYes
🇬🇼Guinea-BissauYesYes
🇬🇾GuyanaYesYes
🇭🇹HaitiYesYes
🇭🇳HondurasYesYes
🇭🇺HungaryYesYes
🇮🇸IcelandYesYes
🇮🇳IndiaYesYes
🇮🇩IndonesiaNoYes
🇮🇷IranNoYes
🇮🇶IraqNoYes
🇮🇪IrelandYesNo
🇮🇱IsraelYesNo
🇮🇹ItalyYesNo
🇯🇲JamaicaYesNo
🇯🇵JapanYesNo
🇯🇴JordanYesYes
🇰🇿KazakhstanYesYes
🇰🇪KenyaYesYes
🇰🇮KiribatiYesNo
🇰🇼KuwaitNoYes
🇰🇬KyrgyzstanYesYes
🇱🇦LaosYesYes
🇱🇻LatviaYesNo
🇱🇧LebanonNoYes
🇱🇸LesothoYesYes
🇱🇷LiberiaYesYes
🇱🇾LibyaNoYes
🇱🇮LiechtensteinYesNo
🇱🇹LithuaniaYesNo
🇱🇺LuxembourgYesNo
🇲🇬MadagascarYesYes
🇲🇼MalawiYesYes
🇲🇾MalaysiaNoYes
🇲🇻MaldivesNoYes
🇲🇱MaliNoYes
🇲🇹MaltaYesYes
🇲🇭Marshall IslandsYesNo
🇲🇷MauritaniaNoYes
🇲🇺MauritiusYesYes
🇲🇽MexicoYesNo
🇲🇩MoldovaYesNo
🇲🇨MonacoYesNo
🇲🇳MongoliaYesYes
🇲🇪MontenegroYesYes
🇲🇦MoroccoYesYes
🇲🇿MozambiqueYesYes
🇲🇲MyanmarYesNo
🇳🇦NamibiaYesYes
🇳🇷NauruYesNo
🇳🇵NepalYesYes
🇳🇱NetherlandsYesNo
🇳🇿New ZealandYesNo
🇳🇮NicaraguaYesYes
🇳🇪NigerNoYes
🇳🇬NigeriaYesYes
🇰🇵North KoreaNoYes
🇲🇰North MacedoniaYesNo
🇳🇴NorwayYesNo
🇴🇲OmanNoYes
🇵🇰PakistanNoYes
🇵🇼PalauYesNo
🇵🇦PanamaYesNo
🇵🇬Papua New GuineaYesYes
🇵🇾ParaguayYesYes
🇵🇪PeruYesYes
🇵🇭PhilippinesYesYes
🇵🇱PolandYesYes
🇵🇹PortugalYesNo
🇶🇦QatarNoYes
🇨🇬Republic of the CongoYesYes
🇷🇴RomaniaYesYes
🇷🇺RussiaYesYes
🇷🇼RwandaYesYes
🇰🇳Saint Kitts and NevisYesYes
🇱🇨Saint LuciaYesYes
🇻🇨Saint Vincent and the GrenadinesYesYes
🇼🇸SamoaYesNo
🇸🇲San MarinoYesNo
🇸🇹São Tomé and PríncipeYesYes
🇸🇦Saudi ArabiaNoYes
🇸🇳SenegalYesYes
🇷🇸SerbiaYesYes
🇸🇨SeychellesYesYes
🇸🇱Sierra LeoneYesYes
🇸🇬SingaporeYesNo
🇸🇰SlovakiaYesYes
🇸🇮SloveniaYesNo
🇸🇧Solomon IslandsYesNo
🇸🇴SomaliaNoYes
🇿🇦South AfricaYesYes
🇰🇷South KoreaYesNo
🇸🇸South SudanYesYes
🇪🇸SpainYesNo
🇱🇰Sri LankaYesYes
🇸🇩SudanYesYes
🇸🇷SurinameYesYes
🇸🇪SwedenYesYes
🇨🇭SwitzerlandYesNo
🇸🇾SyriaNoYes
🇹🇯TajikistanYesYes
🇹🇿TanzaniaYesYes
🇹🇭ThailandYesYes
🇬🇲The GambiaYesYes
🇹🇱Timor-LesteYesYes
🇹🇬TogoYesYes
🇹🇴TongaYesNo
🇹🇹Trinidad and TobagoYesNo
🇹🇳TunisiaNoYes
🇹🇷TürkiyeYesYes
🇹🇲TurkmenistanYesYes
🇹🇻TuvaluYesNo
🇺🇬UgandaYesYes
🇺🇦UkraineYesYes
🇦🇪United Arab EmiratesYesYes
🇬🇧United KingdomYesNo
🇺🇸United StatesYesNo
🇺🇾UruguayYesYes
🇺🇿UzbekistanYesYes
🇻🇺VanuatuYesYes
🇻🇪VenezuelaNoYes
🇻🇳VietnamYesYes
🇾🇪YemenNoYes
🇿🇲ZambiaYesYes
🇿🇼ZimbabweYesYes

Most of the countries that do not currently recognize Israel are Muslim-majority countries. However, some Muslim-majority countries have recognized Israel, such as Egypt and Jordan, who specifically agreed to do so under peace treaties signed in 1979 and 1994 respectively.

Several conflicts have also resulted in some countries suspending relations with Israel. The 1967 and 1973 Arab-Israeli Wars (also called the Six-Day War and Yom Kippur War, respectively) all saw countries suspend diplomatic relations, including Mali and the Maldives. In the case of Eastern Bloc countries that did so in 1967 and 1973, many resumed relations after the fall of the Soviet Union.

On the other side, despite more countries recognizing the State of Palestine over time, none of the G7 and only nine of the G20 have recognized the state. Similarly, only a minority of the EU has endorsed the declaration.

Present-Day

Israel and Palestine continue to vie for recognition in the international arena, with the former gaining recognition from a few countries including Bhutan and the UAE in 2020, and the latter from Colombia in 2018 and Saint Kitts and Nevis in 2019.

But universal recognition continues to elude both sides, with many countries awaiting a formal resolution to the conflict from the two sides.

It’s worth noting that both Israel and Palestine took steps towards recognition under the Oslo Accords, signed on September 13, 1993. The agreement saw Palestine recognize the State of Israel, put an end to the First Intifada, and allowed for limited self-government under a new Palestinian National Authority in Gaza and the West Bank. It promised to lay the groundwork for a two-state solution; a promise of peace that has yet to be realized.

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