Prediction Consensus: What the Experts See Coming in 2022
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Prediction Consensus: What the Experts See Coming in 2022

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What the Experts See Coming in 2022

Even at the best of times, it’s human nature to want to decode the future.

During times of uncertainty though, we’re even more eager to predict what’s to come. To satisfy this demand, thousands of prognosticators share their views publicly as one year closes and another begins. In hindsight, we see varying levels of success at predicting the future.

In truth, experts are merely guessing at what will happen over the coming year. In 2020, almost nobody had a pandemic on their bingo card. In 2021, NFTs completely flew under the radar of experts, and nobody saw a container ship get lodged in the Suez Canal in their crystal ball.

So, why should we pay any attention to predictions at all? Are they, as Barry Ritholtz says, “wrong, random, or worse”?

For one, these guesses are backed by expertise and experience, so the accompanying analysis is informative. Perhaps more importantly though, influential people and companies are in a position to shape the future with their predictions. In some cases, sentiment and actions can turn a prediction into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Regardless, whether for research or pure entertainment purposes, we’ve sifted through hundreds of reports, interviews, and articles to see which predictions are generally the most agreed upon. Where do experts see the ball moving over the next year? Our bingo card sums up the top 25, and below, we’ll dig into some of the trends that could shape 2022.

Want to dive deeper into this year’s predictions?
Join us for our interactive webinar on Jan 13th, 2022 by becoming a VC+ member:
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Vibe Check: What’s the General Outlook for 2022?

Based on the hundreds of predictions we analyzed, the general mood can be described as cautiously optimistic.

For starters, the global economy will likely keep growing, but not at the rate it did in 2021. We aggregated 40+ predictions from reputable sources such as the IMF and Goldman Sachs to determine median GDP estimates for the world, and select regions:

Country / RegionMedian GDP Estimate
World4.5%
United States4.0%
Eurozone4.3%
China5.3%

Next, there’s broad agreement that monetary policy will begin to tighten over the next 12 months. Here’s what major central banks are predicted to do:

removal of monetary accommodation

Multiple experts described an era of lower equity returns and increased volatility. Many of the issues that plagued 2021 have carried over into 2022.

Technological disruption continues to reshape industries, and climate change and cybersecurity issues will be top of mind this year. Geopolitical tensions are heating up as well, now that countries have acclimated to the immediate challenges posed by the pandemic.

In short, nobody expects 2022 to be uneventful.

Trends that Will Shape 2022

Some of the predictions above are straightforward. GDP targets and explicit binary statements don’t require too much explanation.

Below are some of the predictions experts agreed on that are worth digging into in more detail:

1. Geopolitical Tensions Will Flare Up

There are a number of potential hotspots around the world, but here are a few that experts are watching in 2022.

Iran: Tensions ratcheted up between the U.S. and Iran after an attack on a U.S. military base in southern Syria in the fall of 2021. Further, the tension between Iran and Israel has the potential to escalate further in 2022, drawing in other nations in the region into a conflict.

iran geopolitical tensions

Ukraine: This is a continuation of tensions that flared up after Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014. Europe’s dependence on Russian gas and Ukraine’s position as a key gas transit hub makes this a situation experts are watching very closely.

Taiwan: The risk that China will make a move on Taiwan has elevated in the minds of experts, though actions may contain “more bark than bite”.

2. China’s Rocky Start to 2022

At the dawn of 2021, many of the predictions around China were largely optimistic as the country had entered a recovery phase sooner than the rest of the world.

Fast forward to 2022, and the predictions are the polar opposite as China faces challenges on a number of fronts. To begin with, there is pessimism around China’s zero-COVID strategy, which even today sees entire cities fall under strict lockdown orders. This strategy has unavoidable economic impacts.

china's rocky start to 2022

Secondly, uncertainty around power shortages, a potential housing crisis, and regulatory crackdowns have dampened enthusiasm for the country’s near-term prospects.

Finally, Xi Jinping eliminated term limits on the presidency in 2018, potentially positioning himself to lead China indefinitely. As the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th National Party Congress approaches later in the year, if the country is still on uncertain footing, it could create a tense political atmosphere in Beijing.

3. The Year of the Worker

shifting labor dynamics

Labor dynamics have stayed in the spotlight since the pandemic upended the world of work. There are a number of trends that emerge from this broader theme:

  • The labor shortages that emerged during the pandemic will remain in place in 2022 and beyond. Certain sectors, such as cybersecurity, are facing acute shortages of skilled workers
  • There is a broad consensus that the future of office work is “hybrid”. Companies that don’t offer flexibility will face a disadvantage in attracting talent
  • The internet and social media have opened up a number of career pathways for individuals to earn an income beyond simply working for a company
  • Work/life balance and burnout will be central points in discussions around workplace culture

4. The Changing Digital Ecosystem

If predictions are any indication, we’ll be hearing a lot more about NFTs and Web3. There are plenty of opinions on the former, and they run the spectrum from exuberant to outright bearish. Whether the hype surrounding profile picture NFTs dies down is anyone’s guess, but the technology has opened the door to a lot of experimentation for artists and creators.

creator economy 2022

On that note, experts are generally excited about the prospects of the burgeoning “Creator Economy”—a catch-all term describing the new technological ecosystem and growing infrastructure that is allowing individual content creators to monetize and flourish.

Another trend that is picking up steam is ecommerce centered around social media. The ability to purchase products straight from influencers is becoming more common on major social platforms, and ecommerce companies are creating more products to support influencers in their marketing endeavors.

By 2026, Gartner estimates that 60% of Millennial and Gen Z consumers will prefer making purchases on social platforms over traditional digital commerce platforms.

5. Inflation Slowly Eases Off

Worries about inflation have always cropped up here and there, but in countries like the U.S., truly damaging amounts of inflation haven’t been seen since the 1980s.

Last year, the narrative changed.

After trillions of dollars of pandemic stimulus and borrowing, inflation suddenly came back on the radar—and it was not “transitory” as early central bank statements hoped. Now, going into 2022, experts expect higher-than-normal inflation levels to continue.

Inflation Slowly Eases Off

While inflation is expected to have an impact going forward, experts also see it leveling off (relative to 2021) as supply chain disruptions work themselves out.

6. Another Banner Year of Electric Vehicles

As climate change dominates more of the spotlight in 2022, regulatory actions will force automakers to consider the future of their fossil-fuel models.

Even as incentives are slowly rolled back in a number of markets, EV sales are expected to set new records this year. As well, electrification of fleets will be a trend that gathers momentum.

electric vehicles and battery metals

Industrial and battery metals like lithium and cobalt surged by 477% and 208%, respectively, in 2021, a trend that many experts believe will stretch into 2022.

The Good Stuff

Of the hundreds of sources we looked at, here were a few that stood out as memorable and comprehensive:

  • Bloomberg’s Outlook 2022: This article compiled over 500 predictions from Wall Street banks and investment firms.
  • The All-In Podcast’s 2022 predictions: This lively podcast, featuring Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, David Sacks, and David Friedberg, is always entertaining and informative. In this predictions episode, biggest business winners and losers is great, as is best performing asset.
  • Eurasia Group’s Top Risks for 2022: This comprehensive group of articles covers a lot of ground, and offers up some very credible predictions as to what might happen on the world stage this year.
  • Wood Mackenzie’s Predictions for 2022: Wood Mackenzie analysts offer 10 predictions for key developments expected in the energy and natural resources industries in 2022.

Lastly, if you’ve found our Prediction Consensus useful, we’re going to be diving even deeper into this subject matter in the coming weeks.

Our VC+ members get access to the whole Global Forecast 2022 series, which features a webinar and additional articles that flesh out predictions for the coming year in even more detail. You can learn more about it here.

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Mapped: Corruption in Countries Around the World

Which countries are the most (and least) corrupt? This map shows corruption around the world, and the movers and shakers over the last decade.

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Mapped Corruption in Countries Around the World Share

Mapped: Corruption in Countries Around the World

How bad is public sector corruption around the world, and how do different countries compare?

No matter your system of government, the public sector plays a vital role in establishing your economic mobility and political freedoms. Measuring corruption—the abuse of power for private gain—reveals how equal a system truly is.

For more than a decade, the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) by Transparency International has been the world’s most widely-used metric for scoring corruption. This infographic uses the 2021 CPI to visualize corruption in countries around the world, and the biggest 10-year changes.

Which Countries are Most (and Least) Corrupt?

How do you measure corruption, which includes behind-the-scenes deals, nepotism, corrupt prosecution, and bribery?

Over the last few decades, the CPI has found success doing so indirectly through perceptions.
By aggregating multiple analyses from country and business experts, the index assigns each country a score on a scale of 0 to 100, where 0 is highly corrupt and 100 is very clean.

Here are the results of the 2021 CPI, with the least corrupt countries at the top:

Corruption Perception by CountryScore (2021)
Denmark88
Finland88
New Zealand88
Norway85
Singapore85
Sweden85
Switzerland84
Netherlands82
Luxembourg81
Germany80
UK78
Hong Kong76
Austria74
Canada74
Estonia74
Iceland74
Ireland74
Australia73
Belgium73
Japan73
Uruguay73
France71
Seychelles70
UAE69
Bhutan68
Taiwan68
Chile67
U.S.67
Barbados65
Bahamas64
Qatar63
Portugal62
South Korea62
Lithuania61
Spain61
Israel59
Latvia59
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines59
Cabo Verde58
Costa Rica58
Slovenia57
Italy56
Poland56
Saint Lucia56
Botswana55
Dominica55
Fiji55
Georgia55
Czechia54
Malta54
Mauritius54
Cyprus53
Grenada53
Rwanda53
Saudi Arabia53
Oman52
Slovakia52
Armenia49
Greece49
Jordan49
Namibia49
Malaysia48
Croatia47
Cuba46
Montenegro46
China45
Romania45
Sao Tome and Principe45
Vanuatu45
Jamaica44
South Africa44
Tunisia44
Ghana43
Hungary43
Kuwait43
Senegal43
Solomon Islands43
Bahrain42
Benin42
Bulgaria42
Burkina Faso42
Belarus41
Timor-Leste41
Trinidad and Tobago41
India40
Maldives40
Colombia39
Ethiopia39
Guyana39
Kosovo39
Morocco39
North Macedonia39
Suriname39
Tanzania39
Vietnam39
Argentina38
Brazil38
Indonesia38
Lesotho38
Serbia38
Turkey38
Gambia37
Kazakhstan37
Sri Lanka37
Cote d'Ivoire36
Ecuador36
Moldova36
Panama36
Peru36
Albania35
Bosnia and Herzegovina35
Malawi35
Mongolia35
Thailand35
El Salvador34
Sierra Leone34
Algeria33
Egypt33
Nepal33
Philippines33
Zambia33
Eswatini32
Ukraine32
Gabon31
Mexico31
Niger31
Papua New Guinea31
Azerbaijan30
Bolivia30
Djibouti30
Dominican Republic30
Kenya30
Laos30
Paraguay30
Togo30
Angola29
Liberia29
Mali29
Russia29
Mauritania28
Myanmar28
Pakistan28
Uzbekistan28
Cameroon27
Kyrgyzstan27
Uganda27
Bangladesh26
Madagascar26
Mozambique26
Guatemala25
Guinea25
Iran25
Tajikistan25
Central African Republic24
Lebanon24
Nigeria24
Cambodia23
Honduras23
Iraq23
Zimbabwe23
Eritrea22
Congo21
Guinea-Bissau21
Chad20
Comoros20
Haiti20
Nicaragua20
Sudan20
Burundi19
Democratic Republic of the Congo19
Turkmenistan19
Equatorial Guinea17
Libya17
Afghanistan16
North Korea16
Yemen16
Venezuela14
Somalia13
Syria13
South Sudan11

Ranking at the top of the index with scores of 88 are Nordic countries Denmark and Finland, as well as New Zealand.

They’ve consistently topped the CPI over the last decade, and Europe in general had 14 of the top 20 least corrupt countries. Asia also had many notable entrants, including Singapore (tied for #4), Hong Kong (#12), and Japan (tied for #18).

Comparatively, the Americas only had two countries score in the top 20 least corrupt: Canada (tied for #13) and Uruguay (tied for #18). With a score of 67, the U.S. scored at #28 just behind Bhutan, the UAE, and France.

Scoring towards the bottom of the index were many countries currently and historically going through conflict, primarily located in the Middle East and Africa. They include Afghanistan, Venezuela, Somalia, and South Sudan. The latter country finishes at the very bottom of the list, with a score of just 11.

How Corruption in Countries Has Changed (2012–2021)

Corruption is a constant and moving global problem, so it’s also important to measure which countries have had their images improved (or worsened).

By using CPI scores dating back to 2012, we can examine how country scores have changed over the last decade:

Change in Corruption by Country10-Year Trend (2012-2021)
Seychelles+18
Armenia+15
Italy+14
Greece+13
Myanmar+13
Guyana+11
Uzbekistan+11
Estonia+10
Latvia+10
Belarus+10
Saudi Arabia+9
Kazakhstan+9
Laos+9
Timor-Leste+8
Vietnam+8
Afghanistan+8
North Korea+8
Taiwan+7
Lithuania+7
Senegal+7
Cote d'Ivoire+7
Angola+7
Sudan+7
South Korea+6
Slovakia+6
China+6
Jamaica+6
Benin+6
Ethiopia+6
Indonesia+6
Nepal+6
Ukraine+6
Papua New Guinea+6
Austria+5
Ireland+5
Bhutan+5
Czechia+5
Oman+5
Montenegro+5
Kosovo+5
Paraguay+5
Iraq+5
Somalia+5
United Kingdom+4
Costa Rica+4
Burkina Faso+4
India+4
Tanzania+4
Ecuador+4
Georgia+3
Sao Tome and Principe+3
Tunisia+3
Colombia+3
Argentina+3
Gambia+3
Sierra Leone+3
Azerbaijan+3
Kenya+3
Kyrgyzstan+3
Tajikistan+3
Zimbabwe+3
Trinidad and Tobago+2
Morocco+2
Suriname+2
Albania+2
Turkmenistan+2
Luxembourg+1
Germany+1
Uruguay+1
United Arab Emirates+1
Jordan+1
Namibia+1
Croatia+1
Romania+1
South Africa+1
Bulgaria+1
Egypt+1
Russia+1
Pakistan+1
Cameroon+1
Guinea+1
Cambodia+1
Haiti+1
Chad+1
Norway0
France0
Rwanda0
Moldova0
Togo0
Bangladesh0
Burundi0
Hong Kong-1
Japan-1
Portugal-1
Israel-1
Malaysia-1
Kuwait-1
Serbia-1
Mongolia-1
Algeria-1
Philippines-1
Denmark-2
Finland-2
New Zealand-2
Singapore-2
Switzerland-2
Netherlands-2
Belgium-2
Cabo Verde-2
Poland-2
Cuba-2
Ghana-2
Panama-2
Peru-2
Malawi-2
Thailand-2
Niger-2
Dominican Republic-2
Uganda-2
Central African Republic-2
Democratic Republic of the Congo-2
Sweden-3
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines-3
Dominica-3
Malta-3
Mauritius-3
Sri Lanka-3
Mexico-3
Mauritania-3
Iran-3
Nigeria-3
Eritrea-3
Equatorial Guinea-3
Spain-4
Slovenia-4
North Macedonia-4
El Salvador-4
Zambia-4
Gabon-4
Bolivia-4
Guinea-Bissau-4
Libya-4
Chile-5
Qatar-5
Brazil-5
Eswatini-5
Mali-5
Mozambique-5
Honduras-5
Congo-5
Venezuela-5
United States of America-6
Djibouti-6
Madagascar-6
Lebanon-6
Bahamas-7
Lesotho-7
Bosnia and Herzegovina-7
Yemen-7
Iceland-8
Guatemala-8
Comoros-8
Bahrain-9
Nicaragua-9
Canada-10
Botswana-10
Barbados-11
Turkey-11
Australia-12
Hungary-12
Liberia-12
Cyprus-13
Syria-13
Saint Lucia-15
FijiN/A
GrenadaN/A
VanuatuN/A
Solomon IslandsN/A
MaldivesN/A
South SudanN/A

The biggest climber with +18 was Seychelles, Africa’s smallest country and also its least corrupt with a score of 70. Other notable improvements include neighboring countries Estonia, Latvia, and Belarus, with Estonia rising into the top 15 least corrupt countries.

On the opposite side, both Australia (-12) and Canada (-10) have actually fallen out of the top 10 least corrupt countries over the last decade. They’re joined by decreases in Hungary (-12) and Syria (-13), which is now ranked as the world’s second-most corrupt country.

Which countries will rise and fall in corruption perceptions over the next 10 years, and how do your perceptions compare with this list?

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How the Top Cryptocurrencies Performed in 2021

Cryptocurrencies had a breakout year in 2021, providing plenty of volatility and strong returns across crypto’s various sectors.

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crypto prices 2021

The Returns of Top Cryptocurrencies in 2021

2021 saw the crypto markets boom and mature, with different sectors flourishing and largely outperforming the market leader, bitcoin.

While bitcoin only managed to return 59.8% last year, the crypto sector’s total market cap grew by 187.5%, with many of the top coins offering four and even five-digit percentage returns.

2021 Crypto Market Roundup

Last year wasn’t just a breakout year for crypto in terms of returns, but also the growing infrastructure’s maturity and resulting decorrelation of individual crypto industries and coins.

Crypto’s infrastructure has developed significantly, and there are now many more onramps for people to buy altcoins that don’t require purchasing and using bitcoin in the process. As a result, many cryptocurrency prices were more dictated by the value and functionality of their protocol and applications rather than their correlation to bitcoin.

CryptocurrencyCategory2021 Returns
BitcoinCryptocurrency59.8%
EthereumSmart Contract Platform399.2%
Binance CoinExchange Token1,268.9%
SolanaSmart Contract Platform11,177.8%
CardanoSmart Contract Platform621.3%
XRPCryptocurrency277.8%
TerraSmart Contract Platform12,967.3%
AvalancheSmart Contract Platform3,334.8%
PolkadotSmart Contract Platform187.9%
DogecoinMeme Coin3,546.0%

Sources: TradingView, Binance, Uniswap, FTX, Bittrex

Bitcoin wasn’t the only cryptocurrency that didn’t manage to reach triple-digit returns in 2021. Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash also provided meagre double-digit percentage returns, as payment-focused cryptocurrencies were largely ignored for projects with smart contract capabilities.

Other older projects like Stellar Lumens (109%) and XRP (278%) provided triple-digit returns, with Cardano (621%) being the best performer of the old guard despite not managing to ship its smart contract functionality last year.

The Rise of the Ethereum Competitors

Ethereum greatly outpaced bitcoin in 2021, returning 399.2% as the popularity boom of NFTs and creation of DeFi 2.0 protocols like Olympus (OHM) expanded possible use-cases.

But with the rise of network activity, a 50% increase in transfers in 2021, Ethereum gas fees surged. From minimums of $20 for a single transaction, to NFT mint prices starting around $40 and going into the hundreds on congested network days, crypto’s retail crowd migrated to other smart contract platforms with lower fees.

Alternative budding smart contract platforms like Solana (11,178%), Avalanche (3,335%), and Fantom (13,207%) all had 4-5 digit percentage returns, as these protocols built out their own decentralized finance ecosystems and NFT markets.

With Ethereum set to merge onto the beacon chain this year, which uses proof of stake instead of proof of work, we’ll see if 2022 brings lower gas fees and retail’s return to Ethereum if the merge is successful.

Dog Coins Meme their Way to the Top

While many new cryptocurrencies with strong functionality and unique use-cases were rewarded with strong returns, it was memes that powered the greatest returns in cryptocurrencies this past year.

Dogecoin’s surge after Elon Musk’s “adoption” saw many other dog coins follow, with SHIB benefitting the most and returning an astounding 19.85 million percent.

But ever since Dogecoin’s run from $0.07 to a high of $0.74 in Q2 of last year, the original meme coin’s price has slowly bled -77% down to $0.17 at the time of writing. After the roller coaster ride of last year, 2022 started with a positive catalyst for Dogecoin holders as Elon Musk announced DOGE can be used to purchase Tesla merchandise.

Gamifying the Crypto Industry

The intersection between crypto, games, and the metaverse became more than just a pipe dream in 2021. Axie Infinity was the first crypto native game to successfully establish a play to earn structure that combines its native token (AXS) and in-game NFTs, becoming a sensation and source of income for many in the Philippines.

Other crypto gaming projects like Defi Kingdoms are putting recognizable game interfaces on decentralized finance applications, with the decentralized exchange becoming the town’s “marketplace” and yield farms being the “gardens” where yield is harvested. This fantasy aesthetic is more than just a new coat of paint, as the project with $1.04B of total value locked is developing an underlying play-to-earn game.

Along with gamification, 2021 saw crypto native and non-crypto developers put a big emphasis on the digital worlds or metaverses users will inhabit. Facebook’s name change to Meta resulted in the two prominent metaverse projects The Sandbox (SAND) and Decentraland (MANA) surge another few hundred percent to finish off the year at 16,261% and 4,104% returns respectively.

With so many eyes on the crypto sector after the 2021’s breakout year, we’ll see how developing U.S. regulation and changing macro conditions affect cryptocurrencies in 2022.

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