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The Power of Dividend Investing

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The Power of Dividend Investing

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The Power of Dividend Investing

If you start talking about dividend investing at your next cocktail event, it’s possible that other patrons may not see you as the life of the party.

But that’s okay – because while dividends are not necessarily sexy, they are a foolproof way to reel in consistent, predictable returns in the market. And for decades, seasoned investors have leaned on dividends to help power their portfolios through both good and bad times in the market.

What is a Dividend?

When a company earns a profit, it essentially has two options.

1. Re-invest in the business
This is the option chosen by many high-growth companies. They pay down debt, or expand their operations to make more profit in the future.

2. Issue a dividend to shareholders
A dividend is a share of after-tax profit of a company, distributed to its shareholders according to the number and class of shares held by them.

How and when is a dividend issued?

  • Both the amount and timing of dividends is determined by the Board of Directors
  • Usually for public companies, dividends happen on a quarterly or annual basis
  • Most dividends are declared by large and established “blue chip” companies (i.e. P&G, McDonald’s)
  • Dividends are often paid if a company is unable to reinvest its cash at a higher rate than shareholders

Most importantly for investors, dividends from good companies should be predictable and sustainable. Some companies like Coca-Cola have been paying out uninterrupted dividends on common stock for over a century.

The History of Dividends

1250
The first company to ever pay a dividend was likely a French bank called Société des Moulins du Bazacle, which was formed in 1250.

1602
The Dutch East India Company was the first company to offer shares of stock. It famously paid a dividend that averaged around 18% of capital over the course of the company’s 200-year existence.

1684
The Hudson Bay Company was likely the first North American company to have paid a dividend. The first dividend went to shareholders 14 years after the company’s formation in 1670, and was worth 50% of the par value of the stock.

1910
In the early 20th century, most investors only cared about dividends. At the time, stocks were expected to have a higher dividend yield than bonds to compensate investors for the extra risk carried by equities.

2003
Microsoft declares its first dividend after 28 years of rapid growth.

Today, roughly 422 of the 500 stocks on the S&P 500 pay a dividend, including companies like 3M, Chevron, Walmart, and McDonald’s.

Why is Dividend Investing Powerful?

Most investors are aware of the power of compound interest – and dividends work in a similar way, especially when dividends get reinvested back into the company.

That’s why investing $10,000 in Coca-Cola in 1962 would have yielded more than $2 million by 2012, which is 50 years later. Dividends get reinvested to buy more stock, which produces more dividends, and so on.

The advantages of dividend investing are as follows:

  • Companies can increase dividends over time. (P&G, for example, has increased their dividend every year for 60 years)
  • Companies can’t fake dividends – a company either declares a dividend, or it doesn’t
  • Dividends protect against inflation. (Dividends have increased 4.2% since 1912, and inflation has increased 3.3%)
  • Dividends create intrinsic value, as they generate cash flow for investors
  • Dividends can help combat volatility – that’s because dividend yield increases as the market price of a stock falls, making the stock more attractive

Dividends are a key way for companies to give back to shareholders, and in the right situation, dividend stocks can be a powerful component in an investor’s portfolio.

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Economy

Economic Growth Forecasts for G7 and BRICS Countries in 2024

The IMF has released its economic growth forecasts for 2024. How do the G7 and BRICS countries compare?

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Faded horizontal bar chart visualization of G7 and BRICS countries' real GDP growth forecasts for 2024.

G7 & BRICS Real GDP Growth Forecasts for 2024

The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) has released its real gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts for 2024, and while global growth is projected to stay steady at 3.2%, various major nations are seeing declining forecasts.

This chart visualizes the 2024 real GDP growth forecasts using data from the IMF’s 2024 World Economic Outlook for G7 and BRICS member nations along with Saudi Arabia, which is still considering an invitation to join the bloc.

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Mixed Economic Growth Prospects for Major Nations in 2024

Economic growth projections by the IMF for major nations are mixed, with the majority of G7 and BRICS countries forecasted to have slower growth in 2024 compared to 2023.

Only three BRICS-invited or member countries, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and South Africa, have higher projected real GDP growth rates in 2024 than last year.

GroupCountryReal GDP Growth (2023)Real GDP Growth (2024P)
G7🇺🇸 U.S.2.5%2.7%
G7🇨🇦 Canada1.1%1.2%
G7🇯🇵 Japan1.9%0.9%
G7🇫🇷 France0.9%0.7%
G7🇮🇹 Italy0.9%0.7%
G7🇬🇧 UK0.1%0.5%
G7🇩🇪 Germany-0.3%0.2%
BRICS🇮🇳 India7.8%6.8%
BRICS🇨🇳 China5.2%4.6%
BRICS🇦🇪 UAE3.4%3.5%
BRICS🇮🇷 Iran4.7%3.3%
BRICS🇷🇺 Russia3.6%3.2%
BRICS🇪🇬 Egypt3.8%3.0%
BRICS-invited🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia-0.8%2.6%
BRICS🇧🇷 Brazil2.9%2.2%
BRICS🇿🇦 South Africa0.6%0.9%
BRICS🇪🇹 Ethiopia7.2%6.2%
🌍 World3.2%3.2%

China and India are forecasted to maintain relatively high growth rates in 2024 at 4.6% and 6.8% respectively, but compared to the previous year, China is growing 0.6 percentage points slower while India is an entire percentage point slower.

On the other hand, four G7 nations are set to grow faster than last year, which includes Germany making its comeback from its negative real GDP growth of -0.3% in 2023.

Faster Growth for BRICS than G7 Nations

Despite mostly lower growth forecasts in 2024 compared to 2023, BRICS nations still have a significantly higher average growth forecast at 3.6% compared to the G7 average of 1%.

While the G7 countries’ combined GDP is around $15 trillion greater than the BRICS nations, with continued higher growth rates and the potential to add more members, BRICS looks likely to overtake the G7 in economic size within two decades.

BRICS Expansion Stutters Before October 2024 Summit

BRICS’ recent expansion has stuttered slightly, as Argentina’s newly-elected president Javier Milei declined its invitation and Saudi Arabia clarified that the country is still considering its invitation and has not joined BRICS yet.

Even with these initial growing pains, South Africa’s Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor told reporters in February that 34 different countries have submitted applications to join the growing BRICS bloc.

Any changes to the group are likely to be announced leading up to or at the 2024 BRICS summit which takes place October 22-24 in Kazan, Russia.

Get the Full Analysis of the IMF’s Outlook on VC+

This visual is part of an exclusive special dispatch for VC+ members which breaks down the key takeaways from the IMF’s 2024 World Economic Outlook.

For the full set of charts and analysis, sign up for VC+.

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