Post-debate polls: Trump Still on Top
Polls show 44% think Trump wins GOP debate. Rubio and Carson surprise.
The Chart of the Week is a weekly feature in Visual Capitalist on Fridays.
Last night’s debate in Cleveland was the first of many chances for the GOP establishment to dethrone Donald Trump from the top position in polls, and Fox News moderators Megyn Kelly, Chris Wallace and Bret Baier came out swinging with some surprisingly difficult questions. Although most pundits think the debate was a “tie” between several candidates, an amalgamation of different user polls show Donald Trump is hard to bump.
We averaged three big online user polls as of 11:30am Eastern Time that account for over 600,000 votes including: The Drudge Report, Time.com, and Slate. There were small differences in the percentages on each poll, but one thing is clear: Trump is still on top for much of the electorate:
Trump’s appeal to the electorate can be summarized as follows:
Trump owns this debate. doesn’t seem like a politician. A fish out of water; that’s why he's so appealing.He laughs at this ridiculous show.
— Jeffrey A Tucker (@jeffreyatucker) August 7, 2015
Trump is making me laugh. He just slammed Chris Christie while slamming Atlantic City while deflecting questions about his own bankruptcies
— Dan Carlin (@dccommonsense) August 7, 2015
— kawaiiberpunk hero (@mylittlepwnies3) August 7, 2015
That’s it – right there. Trump has no “shame”. It also helps explain why Trump “could not say” if he would run as an independent if he did not get the nomination.
For now, that will appeal to GOP voters who want a strong, unfiltered, and determined leader. However, as Trump reaches a larger and more focused stage, the details of his campaign and platform will likely kibosh his original gut appeal even to most Republicans. He’s also far too divisive to win a general election.
So who else can declare the debate a victory?
Marco Rubio and Dr. Ben Carson both had double-digit support (10.9% and 10.3% respectively) as the winner of the debate. Meanwhile, Ted Cruz and John Kasich were right behind with 8.3% and 8.6% support.
Visualizing the BRICS Expansion in 4 Charts
We provide a data-driven overview of how the recent BRICS expansion will grow the group’s influence and reach.
Visualizing the BRICS Expansion in 4 Charts
BRICS is an association of five major countries including Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Distinguished by their emerging economies, the group has sought to improve diplomatic coordination, reform global financial institutions, and ultimately serve as a counterbalance to Western hegemony.
On Aug. 24, 2023, BRICS announced that it would formally accept six new members at the start of 2024: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, Argentina, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
In this graphic, we provide a data-driven overview of how the BRICS expansion will grow the group’s influence and reach.
Share of Global GDP
Because most of the new BRICS members are considered to be developing economies, their addition to the group will not have a major impact on its overall share of GDP.
The following table includes GDP projections for 2023, courtesy of the IMF.
|Country||GDP (USD billions)||Share of Global (%)|
|Yes||🇿🇦 South Africa||$399||0.4%|
|No||🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia||$1,062||1.0%|
|-||Rest of World||$74,362||70.7%|
The original six BRICS members are expected to have a combined GDP of $27.6 trillion in 2023, representing 26.3% of the global total. With the new members included, expected GDP climbs slightly to $30.8 trillion, enough for a 29.3% global share.
Share of Global Population
BRICS has always represented a major chunk of global population thanks to China and India, which are the only countries with over 1 billion people.
The two biggest populations being added to BRICS are Ethiopia (126.5 million) and Egypt (112.7 million). See the following table for population data from World Population Review, which is dated as of 2023.
|Country||Population||Share of Global (%)|
|Yes||🇿🇦 South Africa||60,414,495||0.8%|
|No||🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia||36,947,025||0.5%|
|-||BRICS Total||3.7 billion||46.0%|
|-||Rest of World||4.3 billion||54.0%|
It’s possible that BRICS could eventually surpass 50% of global population, as many more countries have expressed their desire to join.
Share of Oil Production
Although the world is trying to move away from fossil fuels, the global oil market is still incredibly large—and BRICS is set to play a much bigger role in it. This is mostly due to the admission of Saudi Arabia, which alone accounts for 12.9% of global oil production.
Based on 2022 figures from the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy, BRICS’ share of oil production will grow from 20.4% to 43.1%.
|Share of Global (%)|
|Yes||🇿🇦 South Africa||0||0.0%|
|No||🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia||12,136||12.9%|
|-||Rest of World||53,394||56.9%|
It’s worth noting that China has been pushing for oil trade to be denominated in yuan, and that Saudi Arabia’s acceptance into BRICS could bolster this ambition, potentially shifting the dynamics of global oil trade.
Share of Global Exports
The last metric included in our graphic is global exports, which is based on 2022 data from the World Trade Organization. We can see that the BRICS expansion will grow the group’s share of global exports (merchandise trade) to 25.1%, up from 20.2%.
|Country||Exports (USD billions)||Share of Global (%)|
|Yes||🇿🇦 South Africa||123||0.5%|
|No||🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia||410||1.6%|
|-||Rest of World||18,646||74.9%|
Unsurprisingly, China is the world’s largest exporter. Major exporters that are not a part of BRICS include the U.S. (8.3%), Germany (6.6%), the Netherlands (3.9%), and Japan (3.0%).
Who Else Wants to Join?
According to Reuters, there are over 40 countries that have expressed interest in joining BRICS. A smaller group of 16 countries have actually applied for membership, though, and this list includes Algeria, Cuba, Indonesia, Palestine, and Vietnam.
As the group grows in size, differing opinions and priorities among its members could create tensions in the future. For example, India and China have had numerous border disputes in recent years, while Brazil’s newly elected President has sought to “kickstart a new era of relations” with the U.S.
One thing that is certain, however, is that a new acronym for the group will be needed very soon.
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